Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During a bull market, market corrections are often completed in a short period. For small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks, it may be a good buying opportunity. Chasing the previous strong sectors during this period has a high probability of success, and even chasing at the market peak can often yield positive returns [1][4]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends [1][5]. - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related [1][6]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Respond When a Small Platform Appears in a Bull Market 1.1 Chasing the Previous Strong Sectors During a Small - Scale Bull - Market Correction Has the Highest Probability of Success - During a bull market, small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks may be a good buying opportunity. When considering whether to chase the previous high - performing sectors or switch to low - lying sectors for catch - up, historical data shows that in the "first wave of rise - platform pullback - second wave of rise" scenarios, the top 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise are likely to have the largest pullbacks during the adjustment but also tend to have higher increases in the second wave of rise. The bottom 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise usually do not end up at the bottom in the second wave of rise [10]. - When buying at the market's highest point before adjustment (fully "chasing up"), the TOP20% group and the DOWN20% group have similar returns, but the TOP20% group has a higher probability of success and always maintains positive returns. When buying at the lowest point of the market adjustment, the TOP20% group is likely to have better returns [4][13]. 1.2 When Not to Chase Up - The statement that "chasing the previous strong sectors during a small - scale bull - market correction has the highest probability of success" is the result of strong sectors with excess returns continuing to lead the rise and sectors with weakening marginal excess returns rising in line with the market. Excluding sectors with weakening marginal excess returns may be a good choice when a "small - scale bull - market correction" occurs [16]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends, possibly because the sector has completed the pricing of its own logic and there is no incremental logic to change this situation. Conversely, if a sector can maintain strong excess returns during a correction, it is likely to continue to do so in the future [5][19]. 1.3 Which Industries Currently Have Weakening Marginal Excess Returns - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening marginal excess returns. Sectors such as the consumer electronics sector have had continuous excess returns relative to the broader market for 10 weeks. As of August 20, 2025, sectors with continuous excess returns of five weeks or more include general equipment, special equipment, electronic chemicals, rubber, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [20]. - Sectors that have shown weakening marginal excess returns include the gaming sector in AI applications, the aviation equipment sector in the military industry, and the wind power and glass - fiber sectors in the "anti - involution" category [20]. 1.4 How to Find Sectors That May Earn Odds When Excess Returns Weaken - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. Examples include special steel from March to July 2009, rail transit equipment from February to April 2015, rural commercial banks from December 2016 to April 2017, energy metals, small metals, general steel, and coal mining from May to September 2017, and chemical fibers and agricultural product processing from November 2020 to January 2021 [23]. - These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related. Before the correction, the rise is due to market beta and the difference between weak reality and strong expectations. During the correction, the negative excess return is due to the friction when moving from long - term speculation to the reality - realization stage. After the correction, the excess return comes from the reality catching up with the strong expectations. Resource sectors price their own logic more "slowly" than growth sectors. When the marginal excess returns of growth stocks weaken, it is difficult for them to restart without new incremental logic. However, for resource sectors, the realization of logic (i.e., the realization of supply - demand structure expectations) is still an incremental logic [6][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the procedures and rules of the Chairmanship change, and the potential impacts if the Fed's independence is weakened. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent are considering new candidates, which has raised concerns about the "independence" of monetary policy [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Candidates and Their Backgrounds - **Three main contenders**: Waller, Hassett, and Warsh are the leading candidates. As of August 21, according to Polymarket, Waller has a 32.0% probability of being nominated, followed by Warsh (10.7%) and Hassett (10.0%). According to Kalshi, Waller has a 29% chance, Hassett 19%, and Warsh 18% [2][10]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor and a dove. He is familiar with the Fed's operations, was appointed by Trump, and his policy views align with the White House. His election may raise questions about the central bank's independence [16]. - **Kevin Hassett**: The current director of the White House National Economic Council. He has rich government experience but relatively less monetary policy experience and is considered too close to the government [17][18]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, regarded as a dove, and supports Trump's call for rate cuts. He has extensive experience in various fields but lacks direct access to Trump [21][22]. - **Other candidates and potential "dark horse"**: Other candidates include current Fed officials, financial institution professionals, former Fed officials, and former government economists. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Milan, recently nominated as a Fed governor, may be a "dark horse." He advocates for reciprocal tariffs, has a dovish stance on interest rates, and wants to weaken the Fed's independence, which has raised concerns about his impact on the central bank's credibility [24][27]. 3.2 Procedures and Rules for the Fed Chairmanship Change The President usually announces the nominee 3 - 6 months in advance, with an average of 4.08 months from nomination to inauguration. Trump is expected to announce the nominee between December this year and January next year. If announced earlier, it may raise concerns about setting up a "shadow Fed." After Powell steps down as Chair, he is likely to resign as a governor. Trump can influence the Fed's policy by nominating new governors, but most current governors' terms extend beyond 2028, making it difficult for him to interfere [29][31]. 3.3 Potential Impacts of Weakened Fed Independence - **Increased stagflation risk**: Historical precedents show that when the Fed loses independence, stagflation can occur. If Trump appoints a closely - affiliated Fed Chair, the market may worry about repeating the 1973 - 1974 stagflation scenario [34]. - **Intensified fiscal concerns**: The Fed losing independence may turn it into a tool for the Treasury to issue debt, exacerbating concerns about the debt crisis given the high deficit and rising debt in the US [36]. - **Weakened US dollar status and capital flight**: The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency depends on the Fed's credibility. If the Fed is seen as politically controlled, investors may shift from dollar - denominated assets to alternatives like gold, leading to a vicious cycle [38]. - **US stock, bond, and currency sell - off**: A "black swan" event where the Fed is controlled by the White House could lead to a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as demonstrated by the market reaction in July when there were rumors of firing Powell [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company achieved a record high profit in the second quarter, with a net profit margin showing significant improvement [2] - The revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 12.47 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 4.45 billion, an increase of 10.0% [1][3] - The company is expected to see growth in its life sciences, ultra-pure water, and lithium extraction projects, with a forecasted net profit of CNY 10.11 billion, CNY 13.22 billion, and CNY 15.96 billion for 2025-2027 [4] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 6.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3% [1] - The gross margin for Q2 was 51.66%, and the net margin was 37.75%, both showing upward trends [2] - Excluding the impact of the large lithium extraction project, revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 4.26% [3] Business Segments - The revenue from adsorption materials was CNY 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.40%, while system device revenue decreased by 36.53% [3] - The technical service revenue saw a significant increase of 217.55%, primarily due to increased project design income in the lithium extraction sector [3] - Key projects in life sciences and ultra-pure water have made significant progress, with plans for a new high-end materials industrial park in Shaanxi Province [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of CNY 3.07 billion in 2025 and CNY 5.36 billion in 2027 [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is CNY 1.01 billion, with a growth rate of 28.48% [5] Market Position - The company operates in the basic chemicals and plastics industry, with a current market capitalization of approximately CNY 26.84 billion [7] - The stock has shown a price range between CNY 37.35 and CNY 68.02 over the past year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a significant increase in revenue and profit, attributed to rising aluminum product prices and sales volume [1][2]. - The company has optimized its cost structure, leading to improved margins and profitability, particularly in its aluminum and alumina segments [2][3]. - A substantial share buyback program has been initiated, reflecting the company's confidence in its future growth prospects [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 81.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 12.361 billion yuan, up 35% [1]. - The aluminum alloy segment contributed revenue and gross profit of 51.88 billion yuan and 13.09 billion yuan, respectively, with sales volume increasing by 2.4% [2]. - The alumina segment saw revenue and gross profit of 20.65 billion yuan and 5.95 billion yuan, respectively, with sales volume up 15.6% [2]. Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a notable decrease in sales and administrative expenses, and a significant reduction in financial expenses by 17.7% [3]. - The gross margin for aluminum products has improved due to a combination of rising prices and effective cost management strategies [2][3]. Shareholder Returns - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 1.31 yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year, and has adjusted its dividend distribution strategy, opting not to declare an interim dividend [4]. - A share buyback of approximately 2.6 billion Hong Kong dollars was executed, with plans for further buybacks of at least 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating strong confidence in future performance [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is significantly pressured by multiple factors, including a decline in oil prices, leading to a revenue drop of 10.6% year-on-year to 1,409.05 billion, and a net profit decrease of 39.8% to 21.48 billion [1] - The upstream segment's earnings are notably impacted by falling oil prices, with crude oil production down 0.3% year-on-year and an average price of $67 per barrel, a 12.9% decrease [2] - The downstream business faces short-term challenges due to reduced inventory profits from declining oil prices, with refining margins remaining stable at 315 yuan per ton, but segment earnings down 50.4% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment is experiencing a significant decline in sales volume, with gasoline, diesel, and kerosene down 4.9%, 6.8%, and 8.4% respectively, leading to a revenue drop of 45.7% [4] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures by approximately 5%, which is expected to benefit long-term profitability and cash flow [5] Financial Summary - The company's projected net profit for 2025 has been adjusted to 43.5 billion, down from previous estimates due to oil price pressures, with a price-to-earnings ratio forecasted at 16 [6][8] - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 9% in 2025, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [6] - The dividend yield for A shares is estimated at 4.3% for 2025, while H shares are projected at 6.2% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company faced operational pressure in H1 2025 due to declining coking coal prices, but the focus on the coking coal business's elasticity is emphasized under the anti-involution policy [1] - The company achieved revenue of 6.735 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 35.34%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 309 million, down 42.71% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the operational performance of ongoing projects, particularly the Bangladesh coal-fired power plant, which is anticipated to start contributing operational revenue this year [1] - The overall coking coal prices have shown signs of recovery since Q3, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity in the company's coking coal business [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its integrated investment and operation business development prospects, forecasting net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.12 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.4 billion for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the revenue from various business segments was as follows: Engineering Construction and Services 3.1 billion, Resource Equipment Supply Chain 2.66 billion, Power Operations 330 million, and Industrial Manufacturing 620 million, with respective year-on-year changes of -24.9%, -50.9%, +55.2%, and -0.9% [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.09%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 13.15%, up 2.63 percentage points [2] - The company signed new contracts worth 402 million USD in H1 2025, a decrease of 44.76% year-on-year, while efforts to explore emerging markets have yielded breakthroughs in Egypt and the UAE [2] - The company's cash flow from operations (CFO) improved to 147 million in H1 2025, an increase of 531 million year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the maturity of large acceptance bills compared to the previous year [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected financial data for the company from 2023 to 2027 includes revenue growth rates of 59.96% in 2023, -11.21% in 2024, and positive growth in subsequent years [4] - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 918.06 million in 2023, increasing to 1.399 billion by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 44.35%, 14.32%, and 12.97% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.30 in 2023 to 9.38 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Viewpoints - JD Health reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 35.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 24.5% [1] - The company's operating profit surged by 105.5% to 2.127 billion yuan, driven by improved gross margin and cost control [2] - The growth in product sales was primarily attributed to an increase in active user numbers and enhanced online penetration of pharmaceutical and health products [2] - The company has established a mature operational model integrating self-operated, online platform, and instant retail, which is expected to unlock long-term growth potential [3] - The application of AI technology in healthcare services is expected to accelerate the establishment of a closed-loop medical ecosystem [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, JD Health achieved a revenue of 35.3 billion yuan, up from 28.3 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a 24.5% increase [1] - The second quarter revenue was 18.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.67% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit reached 2.483 billion yuan, a 56.7% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The gross profit increased by 32.7% to 8.9 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 10.1% [2] Business Development - The sales of pharmaceutical and health products generated 29.3 billion yuan, accounting for 83% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 22.7% [2] - The digital marketing service revenue grew by 34.4% to 6 billion yuan, driven by an increase in the number of advertisers [2] - The company has formed strategic partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its product offerings [2] Strategic Initiatives - JD Health has expanded its online pharmacy network to over 200,000 offline pharmacies and increased its user base for online medical insurance payments to nearly 200 million people [3] - The introduction of AI-driven services, such as AI doctors and pharmacists, has reached over 50 million users, indicating a significant penetration into healthcare services [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the "Healthy China" strategy, which is expected to further boost health demand [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 32.7% to 288 million [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery due to the steel industry's "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and improve processing fees and net profit per ton [1][3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 810 million, 940 million, and 1.09 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.55 billion, with a net profit of 288 million, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [1]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 5.735 billion, a decrease of 2.78% year-on-year, with net profits dropping by 32.61% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10%, down by 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross profit of 470 yuan per ton, a decline of 85 yuan [3]. Product Segment Performance - Revenue from various product segments in the first half of 2025 included H-beams (5.8 billion), box-type columns (2 billion), and other components, with mixed performance across segments [2]. - The company has been investing in smart manufacturing technologies, including advanced production lines and robotic systems, to enhance operational efficiency [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a slight decrease in expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 6.61% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The cash flow from operations was negative at -198 million, primarily due to an increase in inventory [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 23.6 billion, with a net profit of 811.5 million, reflecting a growth rate of 5.08% [5][12]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned in the construction decoration and specialized engineering industry, with a focus on transitioning to intelligent steel structure manufacturing [6]. - The report suggests that the ongoing supply-side reforms in the steel industry could positively impact the company’s performance if steel prices rise [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of racing culture and high-end branding for BYD, showcasing how the newly built all-terrain racetrack in Zhengzhou serves as a platform for technology application and user engagement [2][4][21] - The report draws parallels between BYD's strategy and historical examples from global automotive brands like Mercedes and Ferrari, highlighting the importance of racing success in enhancing brand perception and driving sales [3][22][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: BYD Racetrack - The BYD Zhengzhou all-terrain racetrack has been completed and opened, representing a significant investment of 5 billion yuan, featuring diverse driving experiences such as drifting and off-road challenges [11] - The racetrack serves as a testing ground for key technologies like Yisifang and Yunian, facilitating the connection between technology and users [2][12] Section 2: Racing Culture and Brand Evolution - The racetrack is positioned as a tool for brand elevation, with a focus on user engagement through various activities that blend technology validation and consumer experience [23] - Historical examples from F1 and other racing events illustrate how success on the racetrack can translate into brand prestige and sales growth for automotive companies [24][26][30] Section 3: High-End Product Strategy - BYD is set to launch several high-end models in the latter half of 2025, including the Fangchengbao Titanium 7, Yangwang U8L, and Tengshi N8L, targeting different segments of the luxury SUV market [41][53] - The Fangchengbao Titanium 7 is designed for both urban commuting and off-road capabilities, while the Yangwang U8L emphasizes luxury and advanced driving features [47][50] - The Tengshi N8L showcases a modern design and strong performance metrics, appealing to younger consumers [53][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 60.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.3% year-on-year growth. Gross profit reached 22.44 billion yuan, up 16.6%, with a gross margin of 37.3%, slightly down by 0.5 percentage points. However, net profit decreased by 28.0% to 4.92 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit was 7.37 billion yuan, down 2.1% [1][5]. - The company's self-owned brand business, primarily from electronic vapor products and vapor beauty products, generated 12.74 billion yuan in revenue, a 14.1% increase, accounting for 21.2% of total revenue. The European market contributed 10.69 billion yuan, up 15.1%, while the U.S. market saw a decline of 6.7% to 1.74 billion yuan. Notably, the Chinese market surged by 2595.2% to 306.18 million yuan, driven by the sales of the vapor beauty product "Lan Zhi" [2][3]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in its vapor electronic cigarette business, supported by stricter regulations against non-compliant products in global markets. This regulatory environment is expected to sustain growth in both self-owned brand and enterprise client businesses [3][4]. Segment Summaries - **HNB Products**: The company successfully supported strategic clients in launching the high-end HNB product Hilo series, which will be launched nationwide in Japan in September 2025. The company is committed to ongoing R&D in HNB products to address user pain points [4]. - **Vapor Medical**: The subsidiary, Chuan Si Bio, is focused on developing leading generic drugs for asthma and COPD in the U.S. and Europe, with plans for further collaboration with international pharmaceutical companies [4]. - **Vapor Beauty**: The "Lan Zhi" home beauty device has surpassed 10,000 users, and the professional equipment has received Class II medical device certification, with over 100 private institutions procuring it [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a global leader in vapor technology solutions, with increasing competitive advantages. The report anticipates significant contributions from HNB business starting in 2026, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 14.72 billion, 19.79 billion, and 26.63 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.40% and 34.60% for 2026 and 2027 [5].