Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The upgrade of Yongxiu Station, a key station in the northern Jiangxi region, enhances travel experience with a design inspired by nature and culture, increasing passenger capacity and adding amenities [3][4]. - The implementation of a new train schedule has increased train frequency to major cities, facilitating regional cultural and tourism development [4]. - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand the railway operating mileage to 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with a long-term goal of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong position in the industry [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A global leader in rail transit control technology [5]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Control: A specialized company in railway safety equipment, becoming a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring field [5]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients [5]. - Huizhou Technology: Focused on rail transit services, providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions with rich experience [5].

风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260124 周报：贵金属价格创历史新高，基本面 推动锂价上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美债遭遇抛售,贵金属加速上涨。本周贵金属再度加速上涨， 突破历史新高，其中COMEX黄金接近5000美元/盎司，COMEX白银突破100 美元/盎司大关。1月20日，全球债市遭遇集体抛售，美债和日债领跌，日 债收益率历史性突破4%关口，为三十余年首次。欧洲多国宣布抛售美债， 10年期美国国债收益率攀升引发市场避险情绪并导致对于贵金属的配置需 求激增。丹麦表示将在月底前清仓所持全部1亿美国国债，引发多国连锁反 应。短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而 言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄 金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄 金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集 海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) through measures against excessive competition, with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" period leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI for three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal supply elasticity is limited due to strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies, increasing mining difficulty, and a shift of production capacity towards the western regions, which raises supply costs [5] - Despite a weak macroeconomic environment affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to remain in a fluctuating pattern [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 23, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 685 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a daily average production of 5.41 million tons from 462 sample mines, a decrease of 57,000 tons week-on-week [3][31] - The average daily consumption of the six major power plants increased significantly to 884,000 tons, with a slight decrease in inventory [3][41] Coking Coal - As of January 23, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1800 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the average daily production of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 770,000 tons, a slight increase [4][79] - The daily average iron output in China is 2.282 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [4][79] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also recommended [6] - Companies with global resource scarcity attributes, such as Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are highlighted for their long-term supply tightness benefits [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Minhua Holdings [3][57]. Core Insights - Minhua Holdings is the global leader in functional sofas, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets. The company has successfully transitioned from a traditional export-oriented business to a model that balances export manufacturing with domestic brand sales [5][8]. - Recent financial performance shows a mixed trend, with a projected revenue decline of 8.2% in FY2025, but a slight recovery in net profit expected in FY2026 [5][15]. - The company is experiencing positive changes in its business operations, particularly in e-commerce sales, which have rebounded by 13.6% in FY26H1, reversing previous declines [28][39]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 18,411 million HKD - FY2025: 16,903 million HKD (down 8%) - FY2026: 16,392 million HKD (down 3%) - FY2027: 16,757 million HKD (up 2%) - FY2028: 17,424 million HKD (up 4%) [5][54]. - Net profit projections are: - FY2024: 2,302 million HKD - FY2025: 2,063 million HKD (down 10%) - FY2026: 2,067 million HKD (up 0.2%) - FY2027: 2,120 million HKD (up 2.5%) - FY2028: 2,208 million HKD (up 4.1%) [5][54]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on FY26 earnings [57]. Business Operations - The company has a balanced revenue structure with approximately 59% from domestic sales and 41% from international sales as of FY26H1 [6][17]. - The domestic sales model primarily focuses on the Zhihua brand, with a significant portion of revenue coming from sofas and mattresses [8][17]. - The company is pursuing strategic acquisitions, such as the planned acquisition of Gainline Recline Intermediate Corp, to enhance its business layout and operational synergies [39][41]. Profitability and Margin Analysis - The company has demonstrated resilience in profitability, with a net profit margin of 12.2% in FY2025, slightly below the previous year's 12.5% [43][54]. - Despite a decrease in average selling prices, the gross margin has improved, indicating strong cost control capabilities [43][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Minhua Holdings, as a leader in the functional sofa market, is well-positioned for growth, particularly with its manufacturing advantages and recovery in online sales [57]. - The projected earnings for FY2026 to FY2028 indicate a gradual recovery in net profit, with expected growth rates of 0.2%, 2.5%, and 4.1% respectively [54][57].

- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds' performance. The model uses 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. A univariate linear regression is conducted for each index, and the rolling window regression is applied with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the performance benchmark for the fund. The corresponding regression equation result is used as the performance evaluation result[17][18][20] - The evaluation method for equity funds also incorporates a scoring system based on fund-manager performance. The scoring system considers both horizontal (market-wide win-rate percentile) and vertical (long-term and short-term performance trends) dimensions. This creates a comprehensive scoring framework for all active equity funds. Funds are categorized into four ratings: AAA, AA+, AA, and BB+, with each rating reflecting different alpha characteristics and performance stability[41][42][43] - The report highlights the performance of different fund styles in December 2025. Growth funds achieved the highest median return of 7.49%, followed by small- and mid-cap funds at 4.45%, large-cap funds at 4.25%, thematic funds at 2.67%, and value funds at 0.29%. Growth funds exhibited significant polarization, with the best performer achieving a 25.0% return and the worst performer at -0.9%[23][25][27] - Thematic funds are further analyzed by sector, including technology, cyclical, high-end manufacturing, and financials. Among these, technology funds performed the best, with an average return of 57.5% for active funds in 2025. The top-performing technology fund, "Yongying Technology Smart Selection A," achieved a return of 236.9%[24][27][28] - The report identifies the most tracked indices by active equity funds in December 2025. The CSI 500 index was the most followed, with 559 funds tracking it, accounting for 14.95% of the sample. The second most tracked index was the ChiNext Index, with 428 funds (11.44%). The CSI A50 index saw the largest increase in the number of funds tracking it, rising from 121 to 145 funds during the month[36][37] - The report also provides details on high-rated funds across different styles, such as small- and mid-cap, large-cap, value, growth, and thematic funds. For example, in the small- and mid-cap category, "Huatai-PineBridge Quantitative Wisdom A" achieved a recent score of 10 with an R² of 0.96, while in the growth category, "Bosera Smart Quantitative Multi-Factor A" scored 10 with an R² of 0.86[52][53][55][56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights structural opportunities in service consumption, particularly in the jewelry market during the Spring Festival season. It emphasizes the strong performance of high-end beauty brands and the recovery of high-end consumption trends [2][4][41]. Summary by Sections Tourism and Cultural Services - During the New Year's holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector. The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the winter tourism peak, such as Changbai Mountain and Emei Mountain tourism [3][35]. Beauty and Personal Care - The K-shaped consumption trend is evident, with a growing demand for high-end beauty products and an increase in the penetration of OTC retail channels. The online sales of beauty products are projected to reach approximately 217.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [4][26]. Retail and Trendy Toys - The high-end consumption recovery is expected to extend to high-end beauty, luxury apparel, and high-end services. The trendy toy sector is projected to see online sales of approximately 72.2619 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40% [4][12]. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices are expected to remain strong during the Spring Festival, with limited declines in consumption volume. The report anticipates significant growth for major brands during this period, recommending companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products [4][43].

行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 22, 2025, the disclosure rate of active equity public funds is 95.6%, with a notable increase in A-share holdings and a decrease in Hong Kong stock holdings [2][11] - The report indicates a strategic shift towards large-cap and dividend stocks while reducing exposure to small-cap stocks [2][11] - There is a clear preference for cyclical and consumer sectors, with increased allocations to these areas and a reduction in growth stocks [2][11] - In terms of industry allocation, there is an increase in exposure to non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and machinery, while reducing allocations to defense, media, and electronics [2][11] Fund Position Changes - As of Q4 2025, the stock position of active equity public funds stands at 86.45%, reflecting a decrease of 0.97 percentage points from the previous quarter. A-share holdings increased by 1.07 percentage points, while Hong Kong stock holdings decreased by 2.05 percentage points [3][12] Sector Allocation Broad Indices - The report notes an increase in allocation to the CSI 300 index, with a holding ratio of 60.12%, and an over-allocation of 14.51% to the CSI 300 and 3.68% to the CSI 500. There is a tendency to reduce exposure to the CSI 1000 index [4][15] Listed Sectors - The report indicates a decrease in Hong Kong stock holdings, with an increased allocation to the ChiNext board. The Hong Kong stock position decreased by 0.68 percentage points, while the ChiNext allocation increased by 1.09 percentage points [4][20] Style Preferences - The report shows an increase in allocations to cyclical and consumer sectors, with cyclical stocks seeing an increase of 1.58 percentage points and consumer stocks an increase of 0.66 percentage points. Conversely, growth stocks saw a decrease of 2.48 percentage points [4][24] Industry Distribution First-Level Industries - The report highlights increased allocations to non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and machinery, while reducing allocations to defense, media, and electronics. The top five industries with increased allocations include non-ferrous metals (+0.95 percentage points), telecommunications (+0.93 percentage points), and machinery (+0.63 percentage points) [4][27][30] Second-Level Industries - The report identifies increased allocations to semiconductors, internet e-commerce, batteries, chemical pharmaceuticals, and biological products. The top five industries with increased holdings include semiconductors (+0.57 percentage points) and batteries (+3.86 percentage points) [4][34][38] Individual Stock Allocation - The concentration of the top 10 holdings (CR10) in active equity public funds remains stable at 13%. The top 20 stocks with increased market value are primarily in the power equipment, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors, while companies like CATL, Industrial Fulian, and Alibaba have seen significant declines in their market values [5][42]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The domestic baby products market in China is expected to grow from 121.8 billion CNY in 2020 to 144.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.3%. The durable goods segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%, outpacing the consumer goods segment [3][58]. - The company has successfully transitioned from an ODM model to a global brand, with approximately 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America [3][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a record net profit of 356 million HKD in 2024, with a forecasted recovery in profitability in 2026 as external disturbances diminish [4][37]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Goodbaby International Holdings Limited is a leading global parenting products company, established in 1989, focusing on design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of various child-related products [16][17]. - The company has a comprehensive global presence with over 6,000 employees and operates under three strategic brands: Cybex, gb, and Evenflo [16][17]. Financial Overview - The company has seen fluctuations in net profit, with a significant drop during 2021-2022 due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024, with net profit reaching a historical high [4][37]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.50 billion HKD, 3.44 billion HKD, and 3.85 billion HKD, with growth rates of -58%, +129%, and +12% respectively [5][121]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese baby products market is characterized by category and tier differentiation, with a stable growth outlook for the overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America [3][58]. - The report highlights a structural growth opportunity in the baby durable goods sector, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2029 [58]. - The competitive landscape in the baby products industry is intensifying, with new brands emerging and existing brands facing pressure due to changing consumer preferences and sales channels [74][76]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from business adjustments, with net profit projected to recover in 2026 as external pressures ease and operational optimizations take effect [4][37]. - Cybex is highlighted as a strong growth driver, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2014 to 2024, while Evenflo faces challenges due to tariff impacts [91][106].