策略定期研究 2025 年 10 月 12 日 策 略 研 究 无需悲观，以我为主——对特朗普关税风波再起 的思考 投资要点： 特朗普关税风波再起，无需悲观、以我为主。 策 略 定 在 4 月"对等关税"冲击后，特朗普于 10 月 10 日再次在社交媒体上 释放出关税威胁。在此消息发布后海外市场反应迅速，美国股市、欧洲股 市、美元指数、原油、铜均走低，仅黄金和白银上涨、美债收益率下跌。 这不由得让市场联想到 4 月"对等关税"引发的"巨震"，有必要思考后 续的应对策略。 期 报 告 （1）近期中美之间发生了什么？近期（10 月以来）美国"小动作" 不断：包括对中国船舶征收"港口费"、将多家中国实体列入出口管制"实 体清单"、威胁要禁止中国航司在执飞往返美国的航班时飞越俄罗斯领空。 我国迅速采取反制措施：10 月 9 日商务部连续发布公告，对稀土、锂电池、 超硬材料等多项物项实施出口管制，将 14 家外国实体列入不可靠实体清 单。10 月 10 日我方发布对高通进行反垄断调查、对涉美船舶收取船舶特 别港务费的公告。最终在美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体上发布 长文释放关税威胁，再度引起全球资产动荡 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of defensive assets and manufacturers with overseas production capabilities amid fluctuations in the trade environment between China and the U.S. Recommended stocks include Meiyingsen, Yutong Technology, and Yongxin Co., with a focus on companies like Jiangxin Home and Aopu Technology [1][5]. - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to see a steady performance in Q3, with leading companies in personal care maintaining stable operations and overseas manufacturers strengthening their competitive edge [1][5]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.71% from October 8 to October 10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.51% [11]. - Key companies expected to perform well include Meiyingsen (projected Q3 net profit growth of 20%-30%), Yutong Technology (5%-15%), and Yongxin Co. (0%-10%) [6][7]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure, with a notable bankruptcy in the custom home industry reflecting challenges for smaller firms. However, leading companies are expected to gain market share as demand stabilizes [5][6]. - The report suggests a left-side investment opportunity in home furnishing stocks, particularly those with high dividend yields [5]. Paper and Packaging - The report notes a mixed performance in the paper and packaging sector, with prices for various paper types showing fluctuations. For instance, double glue paper prices decreased by 50 RMB/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased by 65.62 RMB/ton [37]. - The overall revenue for the paper and paper products industry saw a decline of 1.9% year-on-year from January to August 2025, indicating a challenging environment [46][48]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment is expected to benefit from a strong Q4, with companies like Zhengkang Oral Care and Mingyue Lens projected to see revenue growth of 10%-20% and 0%-10%, respectively [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the personal care sector, particularly with brands expanding their marketing channels [6]. Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on imported furniture and cabinetry, which may benefit companies with established overseas production capabilities [6]. - Companies like Zhongxin Co. and Jiangxin Home are highlighted as key players in the export chain, with expected net profit declines of 20%-10% for Q3 [6]. Cost Tracking - The report provides insights into cost trends, noting a decrease in shipping costs and fluctuations in raw material prices, which could impact overall profitability in the sector [33][40].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent tariff threats from Trump are not expected to have the same impact as the "reciprocal tariffs" from April, suggesting a more emotional short-term impact rather than a fundamental shift in the A-share market's "slow bull" trend [4][25]. - The report highlights that the market has gained some understanding of Trump's tariff tools, indicating a learning effect that may mitigate the shock from new tariffs [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that China's rapid countermeasures, including export controls on rare earths and lithium batteries, demonstrate the country's determination to protect its interests against U.S. technology restrictions [3][24]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector and advanced manufacturing are expected to remain strong, with a focus on self-sufficiency and countermeasures in response to external shocks [26][34]. - The report notes that the "Red October" effect historically shows positive returns in October and November, indicating a favorable time for market positioning [26][27]. - The report identifies that sectors such as rare metals, particularly those related to AI and energy storage, are likely to see continued interest due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions [51][52].

策 略 华福证券 本周行业政策聚焦于信息基建深化、AI融合赋能及重点领域规范调整。 工信部强调推进5G-A、万兆光网及算力设施建设，并联合多部门推动AI与服 务型制造融合，加强工业数据供给与场景应用；汽车领域更新了节能与新能 源汽车技术标准及车船税优惠目录；交通方面将对部分美国相关船舶征收特 别港务费；金融领域拟规范金融机构客户受益所有人识别管理；海南自贸港 则在旅游领域放宽外资准入，推动旅游业国际化。整体趋势表现为基础设施 持续升级、人工智能与产业深度融合、行业标准与时俱进，以及对外开放与 风险监管并重。 本周热门概念中，涨幅排名前十的为核电 (+6.90%)、工业气体 (+6.07%)、水泥制造精选 (+5.87%)、大基建央企 (+5.86%)、西部大基建 (+5.84%)、新疆振兴 (+5.78%)、培育钻石 (+5.51%)、超导 (+5.12%)、火 电 (+4.89%)、新疆自贸区 (+4.65%)。跌幅排名前十的为动力电池 (- 6.38%)、光模块(CPO) (-5.20%)、光伏逆变器 (-4.98%)、锂电正极 (- 4.77%)、锂电负极 (-4.76%)、短剧游戏 (-4.22%)、 ...

Group 1 - The main risk to the global macroeconomic environment is a potential recession in the United States, which could lead to a collapse of the US stock market, rather than trade tensions being the primary concern [2][19] - The risk of a US recession may impact the US stock market and could have a transmission effect on domestic sectors such as non-ferrous metals and AI [3][19] - Long-term investment outlook remains positive for sectors such as insurance, non-ferrous metals, energy, internet technology, and military trade, while short-term focus is on large financials, state-owned enterprises, information technology innovation, military trade, traditional Chinese medicine, and rare earths [3][19] Group 2 - In August, China's industrial enterprises saw a significant improvement in profit, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4%, up 21.9 percentage points from July [8] - The US PCE inflation continued to rise in August, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching expectations, while core inflation also rose to 2.9% [13][18] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong performance in September, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.09% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 13.95% [20][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in holiday travel and consumption, with an average of 3.04 billion people traveling daily from October 1 to 8, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [3][11] - Domestic consumption is showing steady improvement, with average daily sales in related sectors increasing by 4.5% during the holiday period, driven by strong performance in digital products, jewelry, and cultural services [3][15] - The offline performance of the entertainment sector is robust, with a 39.5% year-on-year increase in audience numbers for live performances during the holiday [3][20] Summary by Sections Holiday Consumption Trends - The report notes a rise in domestic travel, with 8.88 billion domestic trips taken during the holiday, an increase of 1.23 billion trips compared to the previous year [11][12] - The average spending per person decreased by 13% despite the increase in total expenditure, which reached 809 billion yuan [11][12] Retail and E-commerce Performance - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday [19] - E-commerce platforms experienced a surge in sales of green organic foods (up 27.9%), smart home products (up 14.3%), and domestic fashion brands (up 14.1%) [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several sectors for potential investment, including: 1. Major appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric [4][23] 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient, with recommendations for companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co [4][23] 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see a rebound in demand, with recommendations for companies like Bear Electric and Anta Sports [4][23] 4. Electric two-wheelers, with a strong outlook for domestic sales improvement, recommending companies like Ninebot and Yadea [4][23] Global Market Opportunities - The report emphasizes the long-term theme of international expansion, recommending companies like Ecovacs and Roborock in the cleaning appliance sector, and Midea and Haier in the major appliance sector [5][24] - It also highlights the potential for motorcycle brands to increase their market share overseas, suggesting companies like Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][24] Market Data - The home appliance sector saw a slight decline of 0.4% this week, with specific segments showing varied performance: white goods up 0.8%, black goods down 0.3%, and kitchen appliances down 1.0% [25]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, effective November 1, 2025, leading to a total tariff rate exceeding 130% [2] - The impact of tariffs on fruit chain equipment companies should not be overestimated, as domestic suppliers are irreplaceable for Apple, which may shift resources towards cost-reducing automation and new product lines [2] - Apple is prioritizing the development of AI glasses over the low-cost Vision Pro headset, with plans to preview the product in 2025 and release it in 2027 [3] - The smart glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with global sales of AI glasses expected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025, and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029 [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - Trump’s new tariffs will add to existing tariffs, creating a challenging environment for imports from China, but the effect on key suppliers may be mitigated due to their essential role in Apple's supply chain [2] Product Development - Apple is shifting focus to AI glasses, which may not include a display and will be designed to work with iPhones, indicating a strategic pivot in product development [3] Market Trends - The smart glasses market is heating up, with Meta's smart glasses selling out in retail stores and significant growth projected in the coming years [4] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those involved in foldable screen hinges, panel equipment, liquid cooling pumps, automation assembly, and 3D printing applications [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [45]. Core Insights - The low-altitude sector is currently positioned for a potential rebound, supported by ongoing catalysts and developments in industry policies. The sector has been relatively stagnant since the beginning of the year, with the broader market reaching new highs, suggesting that a catalyst could trigger a rebound in the low-altitude economy [4][25]. - Infrastructure development and the application of drones in various scenarios are critical for the industry's growth. The report emphasizes that foundational infrastructure is essential for the low-altitude economy to thrive, and the focus on drone applications is expected to gain momentum, particularly in military and civilian sectors [5][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Weekly Outlook - The Wind Low Altitude Economic Index decreased by 0.20% over the past week, ranking 165 out of 338 sectors, underperforming the broader market which saw a 0.37% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [12][25]. - The low-altitude sector has remained flat, contrasting with significant pullbacks in other high-performing sectors like AI computing and humanoid robotics, indicating a potential for future growth as it awaits catalysts [4][25]. Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the establishment of a leadership group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) for general aviation and low-altitude economy, signaling promising future policies [4][25]. - The report highlights various local government initiatives aimed at practical implementations such as route planning and airspace management, which are expected to foster growth in the sector [4][25]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus areas for investment include infrastructure companies such as Suzhou Planning and Lais Information, and drone manufacturers like Jifeng Technology and Henghe Precision [28]. - The report also recommends monitoring leading companies in capacity such as Wanfeng Aowei and Zongshen Power for potential investment opportunities [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential of FGF21 as a treatment for MASH (Metabolic Associated Steatotic Liver Disease), with a global patient population potentially reaching nearly 500 million and a market size exceeding $30 billion [5][17] - Recent large-scale business development (BD) deals in the FGF21 space, including Novo Nordisk's $4.7 billion acquisition of Akero Therapeutics and Roche's $3.5 billion acquisition of 89bio, indicate strong interest and investment in this area [5][31] - Key domestic companies to watch include China Biologic Products, Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical, and Huadong Medicine, all of which have promising FGF21-related products in various stages of clinical development [5][31] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Focus on FGF21 - MASH is a common liver disease globally, with a potential patient population of nearly 500 million and a drug market projected to exceed $30 billion [17] - FGF21 shows great promise in addressing core issues of MASH, including significant reductions in liver fat, inflammation improvement, and reversal of fibrosis [23][25] - The global R&D landscape for FGF21 is relatively favorable, with low competition among candidates targeting MASH [25][27] 2. Market Performance Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 0.3% during the week of September 29 to October 10, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.2 percentage points [4][42] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index has increased by 23.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.7 percentage points [4][42] - Top-performing stocks during this period included Zhend Medical (+31.8%), Wanbangde (+21.2%), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (+12.9%) [4][59] 3. Clinical Development Highlights - China Biologic Products has a leading position with its single-target FGF21-Fc fusion protein in Phase II clinical trials [31] - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical's FGF21/GLP-1 fusion protein has shown promising results in reducing liver fat by 47% compared to a 15% reduction in the placebo group [32][34] - Huadong Medicine's multi-target FGF21/GLP-1R/GCGR fusion protein demonstrated a 79% reduction in liver fat in clinical trials, significantly outperforming the placebo [38][40]

华福证券 2025 年 10 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 科创板组合 9 月录得显著收益，10 月模型推荐调 低价值风格配置——策略化选股月报（2025/10） 投资要点： 多策略选股策略 金 融 工 程 定 策略在 2025 年 10 月对子策略的权重配置在质量选股策略权重占 比最高，约 35.71%，在价值股选股策略上的权重占比最小，约 15.16%。 9 月多策略选股策略绝对收益-0.38%，多策略选股策略相对中证全指超 额收益-2.95%。 极致风格高 BETA 选股策略 期 报 告 策略在 2025 年 10 月对子策略的权重配置在大盘价值策略权重占 比最高，为 50%，在小盘成长策略上的权重占比最小，为 17.29%。9 月极致风格高 BETA 策略绝对收益-3.28%，极致风格高 BETA 策略相 对中证全指超额收益低 5.77%。 "红利+"优选股票策略 2025 年 9 月，"红利+"优选股票策略绝对收益 0.83%，相对中证 全指指数超额收益-1.77%，相对红利收益指数超额收益 4.16%。策略持 仓合计选入 30 支股票，平均市值 1320.14 亿元，主要分布在银行和电 力及公共事 ...