Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]

Group 1 - The report identifies a significant increase in the number of new convertible bonds listed recently, leading to heightened market attention towards new issuances [7][8] - Convertible bonds are categorized into four main types: white horse, value, small market cap, and balanced, each exhibiting distinct pricing characteristics and investment opportunities, necessitating differentiated strategies for new issuances [7][26] Group 2 - White horse convertible bonds are characterized by high initial valuations and a generally high conversion premium, indicating a low investment cost-effectiveness. The report advises against participating in new issuances or buying on the first day due to systemic valuation risks [7][12][26] - Value convertible bonds typically show low initial valuations, with some even trading below par. The report highlights that institutional demand can drive prices upward post-initial trading, suggesting active participation in new issuances and buying during sell-offs for optimal risk-reward ratios [13][17][26] Group 3 - Small market cap convertible bonds exhibit significant price volatility due to limited liquidity, often leading to extreme pricing deviations from fundamentals. The report recommends avoiding high-price chasing and waiting for a price correction after 4-6 months for potential value recovery opportunities [21][27] - Balanced convertible bonds present relatively rational pricing and moderate volatility, with the report suggesting participation in new issuances and buying during initial sell-offs to achieve stable returns within 1-2 months [25][27]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

2025 年 07 月 14 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 117 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025H1 业绩预期高增，充足在手订单叠加下游石化项目进展保障业绩弹性--博隆技术/专用设备 (603325/216402) 中小市值点评报告 工业富联(601138.SH)公司报告：乘上 AI 算力东风，服务器与网络双轮驱动--工业富联/消费电子 (601138/212705) 公司 PPT 报告 陶氏计划退出其欧洲有机硅产能，关注有机硅行业修复机会--行业动态研究 硅料报价提至综合成本线上，欧洲分布式储能需求高景气--行业周报 智元入主上纬新材，xAI 发布大模型 Grok4--行业周报 两部门印发《计量支撑产业新质生产力发展行动方案（2025-2030 年）》--行业周报 铝行业周报：海外关税扰动再起，铝需求淡季深入--行业 PPT 报告 极氪发布浩瀚-S 架构，尚界启动预热--行业周报 本周北证 50 小幅上涨，北矿检测上会--北交所行业普通报告 焦煤期货持续上涨的原 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector, with a recommendation for key stocks based on their performance and valuation [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight increase of 0.41% during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, closing at 1420.81 points, while the average market capitalization of the A-share constituents is 3.113 billion [6][12]. - The report identifies that 66.04% of the stocks listed on the North Exchange rose during the same period, with a notable increase in the number of rising stocks compared to the previous week [17]. - Key sectors that performed well include social services, construction decoration, and building materials, with respective increases of 19.50%, 9.19%, and 7.67% [18]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of July 11, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 268 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.113 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index showed a weekly increase of 0.41% [12]. - The trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 21.552 billion, down 22.98% from the previous week [21]. Stock Performance - In the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, 177 stocks increased in value, while 88 stocks decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment with a significant rise in the number of gaining stocks [17]. - The top-performing sectors were social services, construction decoration, and building materials, while the worst-performing sectors included oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, and beauty care [18]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange during the week, but one company, North Mine Testing, passed the review for listing [26][27]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report emphasizes several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, recommending "buy" for Tongli Co. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, and "hold" for Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co. [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and sales growth in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering a strategic offensive towards high-end development, with companies offering quality products priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level intelligent driving technologies to become more affordable, which could increase their penetration rates [16] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.4% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1% [17] - In June 2025, the wholesale volume of automobiles reached 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [30] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, SAIC Group, BYD, Great Wall Motors for high-end supply [16] - XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Coboda for intelligent driving technologies [16] - Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology for robotics production [16] - Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun Co. for quality auto parts [16] - Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck for commercial vehicles [16] Earnings Forecasts - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E include: - Yinlun Co.: 0.92, 1.28, 1.59 [49] - Baolong Technology: 1.44, 2.56, 3.22 [49] - BYD: 13.84, 18.15, 22.13 [49] - Li Auto: 4.16, 5.43, 8.33 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The continuous rise in coking coal futures since June, with the main contract increasing from 709.0 CNY/ton to 924.5 CNY/ton, is attributed to several factors including mining accidents, geopolitical issues in Mongolia, and strong domestic demand for coking coal despite the steel off-season [1][78] - The report anticipates a short-term strong price trend for coking coal due to limited supply recovery and sustained high iron production in July, alongside supportive macroeconomic sentiments [1][78] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - The coal mining sector has shown mixed performance over the past year, with a 1.8% decline over the last month, a 1.3% increase over three months, and a 15.5% decrease over twelve months [2] - Recent data indicates that coal prices at ports have increased, with a weekly rise of 9 CNY/ton [4][14] 2. Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal supply has seen limited recovery, with production capacity utilization rising by 0.25 percentage points, but overall supply remains tight due to ongoing geopolitical issues and seasonal factors [39] - The average customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased to 764 trucks, but is expected to tighten again due to the Naadam Festival [39][44] 3. Thermal Coal Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have been rising, with the Qinhuangdao port price reaching 632 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [15] - The demand for thermal coal is bolstered by record-high electricity consumption in southern China, driven by high temperatures [14][22] 4. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, recommending a "Buy" rating for most of them based on their strong cash flow and asset quality [9][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of these companies in relation to coal price fluctuations and production recovery [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The new materials industry serves as a foundational industry, supporting other sectors such as electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and environmental protection [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - On July 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for Measurement Support for New Quality Productivity Development (2025-2030)," focusing on integrated circuit measurement technology [23]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - Key materials to focus on include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [10]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - Focus areas include photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [12]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - Key focuses are on synthetic biology and scientific services [12]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key materials include adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [15]. 2. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights several key companies with their earnings forecasts, including: - Ruihua Tai (688323.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.06, with a PE of 51.28, rated "Buy" [17]. - Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.08, with a PE of 28.58, rated "Buy" [17]. - Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.04, with a PE of 510.00, rated "Buy" [17]. - Wanrun Co., Ltd. (002643.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.59, with a PE of 19.29, rated "Buy" [17]. - Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.30, with a PE of 20.55, rated "Buy" [17]. 3. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to gradually enter a prosperous cycle driven by downstream application sectors, maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [16].

2025 年 07 月 12 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 《电力设备行业周报：工信部召开光伏企业座谈 会，海风政策催化不断落地（推荐）*电力设备*李 航，邱迪，王刚，严语韬，李昂》——2025-07-06 《人形机器人行业周报：湖北省人形机器人产业投 资母基金设立，步科发布第四代无框力矩电机及中 空驱动器（推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，李昂， 李铭全》——2025-07-05 《电力设备行业周报：抢装支撑风电 Q2 业绩，锂 电产业链持续推进固态电池布局（推荐）*电力设 备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李铭全，严语韬，李昂》 ——2025-06-28 《人形机器人行业周报：浙江荣泰拟参股金力传 动，银河通用完成 11 亿元融资（推荐）*电力设备 *李航，邱迪，李铭全，李昂》——2025-06-28 | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王刚 S03505240200 ...