Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over overseas electrolytic aluminum supply due to power shortages have led to aluminum prices surpassing 22,000 RMB/ton [11] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with expectations of continued demand growth despite entering the traditional off-season [11] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the long term due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 14, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,858.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.5 USD/ton week-on-week but an increase of 330.5 USD/ton year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,840.0 RMB/ton, up 215.0 RMB/ton week-on-week and up 1,075.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [21] Production - In October 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, an increase of 127,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [51] - The production of alumina in October 2025 was 7.785 million tons, up 182,000 tons month-on-month and 872,000 tons year-on-year [51] Inventory - As of November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.281 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week-on-week [31] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 30.55 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.65 RMB, with a PE ratio of 11.5, rated as "Buy" [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.02 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00 RMB, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 25.73 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12.1, rated as "Buy" [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 11.66 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 25.95 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency disclosure of the PCF list of ETF funds makes it have the potential to observe the actual holdings. Although there are some limitations, it has reference value [4][11]. - When using the PCF list to observe the actual holdings of ETFs, there is an implicit assumption of full - position allocation, and the actual positions of ETFs may not be fully occupied, but the overall deviation is within 10% [6][13]. - Since October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds [6][11][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1 Based on the Component Bond Holdings Observation of the PCF List - According to the information disclosure requirements of bond ETFs, the PCF list can be used as an approximate observation of the actual holdings of ETFs. When investors subscribe or redeem bond ETFs, they need to operate according to the PCF list [13]. - Using the PCF structure to simulate the actual holdings of ETFs implies the assumption of full - position allocation, but the actual positions of ETFs vary. For example, as of June 30, 2025, the proportion of bond assets in the fund assets of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs ranged from less than 80% to over 95% [13]. - Taking the top 5 holding bonds of a benchmark - making credit bond ETF as an example, the overall deviation between the estimated value and the actual value is within 10%, with 3 over - estimated, 1 under - estimated, and 1 accurately estimated [14]. 1.2 Which Bonds Have Been Increased in Holding by Bond ETFs Recently? - Since the second batch of science - innovation bonds were listed, the scale of credit bond ETFs has reached a phased high. Without new scale, the adjustment behavior of bond ETFs on component bonds has reference value for investors [18]. - Based on the observation results of the PCF list, the holding amount and its changes of each bond can be calculated. From October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds and 6 bonds listed before October [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational role of the new materials industry in supporting other sectors [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [6]. - A breakthrough in flexible electronics was reported, with a team from Nanjing University achieving a quantum efficiency of over 45% for tandem perovskite LEDs, setting a new world record [23]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key areas of interest include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [10]. 3. New Energy Sector - The upcoming "15th Five-Year" special plan for power batteries aims to promote the development of new battery industries. Recent data indicates that the energy density of battery cells has exceeded 300 Wh/kg, with rapid charging capabilities and average ranges exceeding 500 km [12]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Focus on synthetic biology and scientific services [13]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [15]. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is catalyzed by downstream application sectors, gradually entering a prosperous cycle, thus maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [9][17] - The company's operating profit was 63.6 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter [9][17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion RMB, also reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase and a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase [9][17] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both grew by 18% year-over-year, reaching 72.6 billion RMB and 70.6 billion RMB respectively [9][17] Summary by Sections 1. Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.414 billion, growing 2.3% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter [10] - QQ's smart terminal MAU continued to decline year-over-year [10] - Paid value-added service accounts reached 265 million, stable compared to the previous year [10] 2. Overall Performance - Gross margin improved to 56.4%, up 3.28 percentage points year-over-year [21] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both increased by 18% year-over-year [17][21] 3. Value-Added Services - Game revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets increasing by 15% and 43% respectively [29] - Tencent Video maintained a leading position with 114 million video subscribers [29] - Online music service revenue increased by 27.2% year-over-year to 6.97 billion RMB [29] 4. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to 36.2 billion RMB [38] - AI applications enhanced advertising click-through and conversion rates [38] 5. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 10% year-over-year to 58.2 billion RMB [41] - The average payment transaction amount increased, and the business maintained the lowest bad debt ratio in the industry [41] 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 753.9 billion, 847.4 billion, and 931.4 billion RMB respectively [42] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are 260 billion, 298.9 billion, and 338.1 billion RMB [42] - The target market value for Tencent in 2025 is set at 6.6 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [42]

2025 年 11 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李铭全 S0350523030001 | | | limq@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 宇树推出首款轮式人形机器人，傅利叶 FDH-6 仿生型灵巧手正式发售 ——人形机器人行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/11/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 11.3% | 39.4% | 37.4% | | 沪深 300 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 相关报告 《电力设备行业周报：锂电产业链走出低谷期， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, indicating that the AI bubble is still in its early stages, closer to the year 1997 of the internet era rather than 1999 [3]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the potential risks of a bubble in the US AI industry, methods to measure the extent of the AI bubble, and how these indicators compare to the internet era [3]. - Five dimensions are used to monitor the AI bubble's degree, including Capex/GDP, Capex/revenue, revenue growth rate, valuation, and funding quality [3]. - The AI industry is experiencing a shift from a "cash flow battle" to a "financing battle," with increased competition and a focus on efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Five Dimensions to Monitor AI Bubble Degree - **Capex/GDP**: Approaching or exceeding levels seen during the internet bubble, with AI technology's adoption and its impact on GDP growth occurring at a faster pace than in the past [3]. - **Capex/Revenue**: High Capex relative to AI-related revenue, but still manageable compared to free cash flow [3]. - **Revenue Growth Rate**: AI-related revenue growth is on par with Capex growth, with large AI tech companies showing stronger financial health than their internet bubble counterparts [3]. - **Valuation**: Valuations are nearing internet bubble levels, but strong profit support and high market concentration among tech giants enhance their market influence [3]. - **Funding Quality**: Remains healthy, although there are concerns that funding quality may decline due to rising interest rates and the influence of new players in cloud computing [3]. Credit Cycle Positioning - A new round of the US corporate credit cycle has begun, primarily driven by the AI industry, while the US consumer credit cycle is still in a downward trend [5][9]. AI Industry Changes - The AI industry is facing intensified competition, with a shift in focus from cash flow to financing, leading to a decline in revenue quality due to cyclical trading [5]. AI Industry Core Issues - The primary challenge in the AI industry is enhancing efficiency, with limited new productivity and a reliance on existing ToB clients for orders [5].

Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the current position of the convertible bond market and the optimal strategies to adopt in this context [4]. - The convertible bond market is currently in a phase of consolidation following a high valuation correction, with risks being released but the cost-effectiveness of allocations still needing improvement [4]. - The premium rate has decreased from a high of 32.49% at the end of August to around 27%, stabilizing around 29% recently, indicating a cooling market [4][5]. - The median of the dual-low value has also dropped from above 170 to a range of 166-168, reflecting similar characteristics to previous market peaks since 2022 [4]. Market Positioning - The current market is not in a high valuation danger zone, nor has it reached a significantly attractive allocation bottom [4]. - The dual-low strategy continues to demonstrate superior risk-return characteristics during this consolidation phase, historically yielding stable excess returns while controlling drawdowns better than high valuation strategies [5]. - In previous market peak phases, such as February 2022 and August 2022, the dual-low strategy outperformed, while high valuation strategies generally underperformed with larger drawdowns [5]. Strategic Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on the dual-low strategy while optimizing execution based on the valuation environment [5]. - Selection of individual bonds should prioritize those with reasonable valuations and sufficient downside protection, adjusting traditional dual-low price screening standards to better fit the current market structure [5]. - Increasing the weight of high-rated bonds in the portfolio is suggested to enhance overall defensive attributes and stability, balancing returns and risks in a volatile market [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current convertible bond market is in a stage of shock consolidation after a pullback from high valuations, with risks partially released but the cost - effectiveness of allocation still to be improved. The follow - up market trend depends on the performance of underlying stocks [5]. - During the shock period after the high - valuation pullback, the double - low strategy shows better risk - return characteristics. In the current market stage, it is recommended to focus on the double - low strategy and optimize it according to the valuation environment [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bonds Maintain High - level Volatility - The convertible bond market's current hundred - yuan premium rate and double - low value median indicate that it is in a shock consolidation stage after a high - level pullback. The hundred - yuan premium rate dropped from 32.49% at the end of August to around 27% and then stabilized around 29%. The double - low value median is oscillating in the range of 166 - 168 after breaking through 170 [5][6][7]. - The market has cooled down, and short - term bubble risks have been released to some extent, but it has not entered the historically undervalued range. The subsequent market trend depends on whether the underlying stocks can provide support [5][8]. 2. The Double - Low Strategy Dominates Again - By back - testing the performance of various strategies after the high - valuation peaks of the convertible bond market in the past five years, it is found that in most cases, the double - low strategy performs well, with stable positive excess returns and better drawdown control. High - premium strategies such as high - price low - premium, high - liquidity, and high - parity strategies generally underperform and have large drawdowns [11][13][17]. 3. Summary - The convertible bond market is in a shock consolidation stage after a high - valuation pullback. The market has cooled down, but the valuation is still high, and the cost - effectiveness needs to be improved. The follow - up trend depends on the underlying stocks [22]. - It is recommended to focus on the double - low strategy, select individual bonds with reasonable valuations and sufficient downward - revision protection, appropriately raise the price screening criteria of the traditional double - low strategy, and increase the weight of high - rating targets in the portfolio [23].

Group 1: Baidu Group (9888.HK) - Baidu Group is leveraging its strong internet foundation to build a competitive barrier through a full-stack AI approach, leading the domestic market share in AI cloud services [3][4] - The online marketing business is transitioning from a CPC model to a CPS model, with AI search expected to enhance profitability in the long term, projecting revenues of 623.91, 592.72, and 598.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] - The AI cloud business is positioned as a new profit center, with a leading market share and expected revenues of 273.25, 327.90, and 386.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The Robotaxi business is anticipated to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 138.32, 159.07, and 174.97 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] - Overall revenue projections for Baidu Group are 1309.73, 1356.68, and 1443.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding non-HKFRS net profits of 166.00, 198.64, and 235.48 billion yuan [8] Group 2: Seres (601127) - Seres has successfully listed H shares, with a total of 108,619,000 shares issued, accelerating its globalization strategy [10][11] - In Q3 2025, Seres achieved revenue of 481.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.28% [11][12] - The company’s gross margin improved to 29.95% in Q3 2025, with a focus on high-end vehicle sales and new product launches [11][12] - The IPO proceeds will primarily fund R&D, marketing, and operational expenses, enhancing Seres' competitive edge [13] Group 3: Duolingo (DUOL) - Duolingo reported Q3 2025 revenue of $270 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%, but has lowered its Q4 guidance due to potential user growth slowdown [14][15] - Monthly active users reached 135 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, indicating a trend of slowing user growth [15][16] - The strategic focus has shifted towards long-term user growth, which may impact short-term revenue and profit [16][17] - Revenue projections for Duolingo are $1.031 billion, $1.265 billion, and $1.509 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [18] Group 4: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported Q3 2025 revenue of $635 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, driven by ASP optimization and increased wafer shipments [19][20] - The company’s gross margin improved to 13.5%, exceeding market expectations, with a focus on high-margin technology platforms [20][21] - Revenue projections for Hua Hong Semiconductor are $2.400 billion, $3.029 billion, and $3.348 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [22] Group 5: Royal Technology (603181) - Royal Technology launched an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee engagement and align interests with long-term company goals [24][25] - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 626 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12 million yuan, indicating stable operations [28][29] - Revenue projections for Royal Technology are 2.502 billion, 3.048 billion, and 3.556 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [31] Group 6: New Asia Strong (603155) - New Asia Strong reported a revenue decline of 19.05% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on electronic-grade chemicals to drive growth [32][33] - The company’s gross margin improved in Q3 2025, but overall performance remains under pressure due to declining product prices [33][34] - The company is expanding its electronic-grade chemical product offerings, which are expected to contribute positively to future growth [36] Group 7: Meihua Medical (301363) - Meihua Medical achieved Q3 2025 revenue of 462 million yuan, marking a 3% year-on-year increase, with a focus on stable growth in core business areas [38][39] - The company is expanding into new markets, including weight loss injection pens and brain-machine interfaces, leveraging its existing manufacturing capabilities [40][41] - Revenue projections for Meihua Medical are 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [41] Group 8: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry saw a 15.8% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales in Q3 2025, with significant growth in passenger and commercial vehicle segments [42][43] - The overall automotive industry revenue reached 10,585.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 404.1 billion yuan, indicating robust performance [42][43] - The passenger vehicle segment experienced profit declines, highlighting a trend of increasing competition and performance differentiation among manufacturers [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry has shown a mixed performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in bus and parts sectors, while passenger vehicle profits continue to decline due to intensified competition [1][4] - The overall automotive wholesale sales reached 8.71 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [4][28] - The report highlights the impact of policies such as vehicle trade-in and subsidies, which are expected to support passenger vehicle sales in 2024 and 2025 [4][41] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index with a 23.8% increase from January to October 2025, while the index rose by 17.9% [10] - The parts sector has shown remarkable performance, with significant stock price increases among component companies [22] Revenue and Profit - In Q3 2025, the automotive industry generated revenue of CNY 1,058.55 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 40.41 billion, reflecting a 9.1% increase [38][41] - The passenger vehicle segment reported revenue of CNY 544.06 billion, a 7.7% increase, but net profit fell by 18.6% [39][41] - The bus segment saw a revenue increase of 30.1% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 95.4% [40][41] - The parts sector achieved revenue of CNY 395.66 billion, up 11.0%, with net profit increasing by 26.3% [41] Key Companies and Forecasts - The report identifies key companies benefiting from the current market dynamics, including Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, among others [4][5] - It emphasizes the potential for high-end and intelligent vehicle segments to drive future growth, recommending investments in companies positioned for these trends [4][5] Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the industry will continue to evolve around "new energy expansion and price competition," with further profit differentiation expected [42]