Group 1: PMI Overview - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The September PMI marks a consecutive rise, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment despite pressures from "anti-involution" and "stabilizing foreign trade"[1] - The 0.4 percentage point increase in September's PMI is below the historical average seasonal increase of 0.86 percentage points since 2005, highlighting ongoing structural economic issues[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - The seasonal recovery in September was driven by two main factors: the reduction of short-term disruptions and the "catch-up production" effect before the long holiday[2] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, indicating a positive response to increased labor demand ahead of the holiday[2] - The new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, the highest since April, suggesting a marginal easing of export pressures[2] Group 3: Structural Economic Challenges - The new orders index only slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating persistent oversupply issues[3] - The disparity between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index suggests that upstream price improvements are not effectively transmitted downstream due to insufficient demand[3] - Non-manufacturing sectors also face pressures, with construction PMI at 49.3% and services PMI at 50.1%, indicating limited recovery in these areas[3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI inference market, leveraging its "algorithm-chip" integration to develop products across consumer, enterprise, and industry segments [10][24]. - The AI inference chip market in China is projected to grow from 11.3 billion to 162.6 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 94.9% [3]. - The company has secured significant orders, including 1.607 billion yuan in AI computing service contracts, indicating strong market demand [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Full Industry Chain Development - The company utilizes "algorithm + chip" as a foundational advantage to expand sales of AI products and solutions across three scenarios: consumer, enterprise, and industry [10]. - The company has established a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 25.27% of the shares, ensuring strong governance [15]. 2. Expanding Inference Market - The AI inference market is expected to see continuous expansion, driven by advancements in large model technologies and increasing investment in the AI sector [24][25]. - The company has developed the Deepseek R1 model, which demonstrates that software innovations can compensate for hardware limitations, thus promoting overall industry growth [2][48]. 3. Application Scenarios - The company is expanding its product offerings in consumer-grade applications, including AI-enabled devices like smart glasses and educational tools [55]. - In the enterprise sector, the company focuses on inference chips to support cloud, edge, and terminal business scenarios, enhancing its service offerings [65]. 4. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company is entering a high growth phase, with projected revenues of 1.285 billion, 1.584 billion, and 1.936 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to reduce losses significantly, with net profits projected to improve from -579 million yuan in 2024 to -259 million yuan in 2027 [5]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts significant revenue growth driven by the company's comprehensive AI strategy and product development across various market segments [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a PS ratio of 23X, 19X, and 15X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating strong valuation potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yingweike and Gaolan Co., and a "Cautious Recommendation" for Kexin New Source [4]. Core Insights - The introduction of the Silent-Aire CDU platform by Johnson Controls marks a significant advancement in liquid cooling technology, addressing the thermal management needs of AI data centers [3]. - The Silent-Aire CDU offers a cooling capacity that can flexibly scale from 500 kW to over 10 MW, with specific configurations achieving up to 1.4 MW cooling capacity when using water as a cooling medium [2]. - The report emphasizes that liquid cooling technology is crucial for resolving the power challenges faced by AI development, positioning it as a key technology route for the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the growing demand for efficient thermal management solutions in data centers, particularly driven by the increasing AI computational requirements [3]. Product Analysis - The Silent-Aire CDU platform is designed for high scalability and flexible deployment, making it suitable for both new AI data centers and retrofitting existing facilities [2]. Company Forecasts and Valuations - Yingweike is projected to have an EPS of 0.61 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 131, while Gaolan Co. is expected to improve from a negative EPS to 0.09 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 342 [4]. - Kexin New Source is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.14 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 316, indicating cautious optimism for its growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a regional leader in personal care products, with significant growth in e-commerce and expansion into peripheral provinces. It has shown a robust revenue increase, with a projected revenue of 3.25 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.8% [1][4]. - The report highlights the trend of "self-consumption" leading to the premiumization of the female hygiene products industry, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer preferences shift towards quality and brand recognition [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. National Expansion and Market Position - The company, founded in 2010, specializes in personal hygiene products, primarily sanitary napkins, which accounted for 93.6% of its revenue in 2024. It has established a strong market presence in the Sichuan-Chongqing region and is rapidly expanding into e-commerce and other provinces [1][10]. - The company has a diverse product matrix with well-defined brand positioning, including "Free Point," "Good," and "Danning," targeting different market segments [13][24]. 2. Industry Trends and Growth Drivers - The female hygiene products market in China is projected to reach approximately 1050.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. The market has transitioned from volume-driven growth to price-driven growth, with an average price increase of 4.5% for female hygiene products from 2019 to 2024 [2][47]. - Key growth drivers identified include the introduction of high-end products, increasing online sales, regulatory changes, and the rise of domestic brands as they capture market share from established players [2][4]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.6 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan, and 6.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 31X, 23X, and 18X [4][5]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in profitability alongside revenue growth, driven by the expansion of high-margin product lines and effective marketing strategies [4][32]. 4. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has adapted its marketing strategy to focus on e-commerce platforms, particularly Douyin, which has seen a significant increase in transaction volume. The e-commerce revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.7% from 2016 to 2024 [7][26]. - The company employs a multi-channel marketing approach, leveraging both online and offline strategies to enhance brand visibility and sales performance [7][26]. 5. Product Development and Innovation - The company is committed to rapid product innovation, with a focus on high-end health products that have contributed to an increase in average selling prices and gross margins [7][35]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the FREEMORE health series, has been instrumental in driving growth and improving profitability [7][35].

紫金黄金国际（2259.HK）新股研究报告 紫脉相承，金绽东方 2025 年 09 月 29 日 ➢ 公司是紫金矿业的海外黄金矿山整合而成的全球领先黄金开采公司。公司控 股股东为紫金矿业，实际控制人为上杭县财政局。公司是全球黄金开采行业增速 最快的公司之一。截至 2024 年底，公司的黄金储量以及 2024 年的黄金产量分 别位居全球第九和第十一，2022-2024 年公司归母净利润的复合年增长率为 61.9%。 ➢ 公司共有 7 座控股金矿以及 1 座参股金矿，分布在四大洲八大国家。从资 源禀赋来看，截至 2024 年底，公司合并矿产金权益资源量为 1614 吨，平均品 位为 1.4g/t，公司合并矿产金权益储量为 856 吨，平均品位为 1.4g/t。从产量 来看，2024 年公司合计产量 40.4（包括波哥拉金矿的权益量），权益量为 33.7 吨，2022-2024 年权益产量年化增速 28.2%。2025H1 公司黄金产量为 20.4 吨， 权益产量为 17.5 吨。从产量分布来看，2024 年公司权益产量贡献前三大的矿山 从高到低分别为澳大利亚诺顿金田（权益产量占比 24.6%），苏里南罗斯贝尔（权 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the commercialization of the nuclear fusion industry, recommending continuous attention to the sector [3]. Core Insights - Nuclear fusion is viewed as the ultimate solution to humanity's energy problems, with the potential for significant advancements in commercialization by 2025 [1][2]. - The report highlights the diverse technological pathways in nuclear fusion research, primarily focusing on magnetic confinement and inertial confinement methods [1][66]. - A detailed overview of both international and domestic nuclear fusion projects is provided, showcasing the collaborative efforts in advancing fusion technology [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Nuclear Fusion: The Ultimate Solution to Energy Problems - Controlled nuclear fusion aims to replicate the sun's energy production on Earth, primarily through the fusion of hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium [1][8]. - Achieving nuclear fusion requires meeting three critical conditions: high temperature, sufficient density, and adequate energy confinement time, collectively known as the fusion triple product [18][22]. 2. Diverse Technological Pathways - The report outlines two main research directions: - Magnetic confinement, which utilizes strong magnetic fields to contain high-temperature plasma, with devices like Tokamaks and Stellarators [66]. - Inertial confinement, which relies on the inertia of fuel pellets compressed by powerful lasers or particle beams [66]. 3. Overview of Nuclear Fusion Projects - International projects include ITER, SPARC, and the Orion device, while domestic efforts are led by institutions like the China National Nuclear Corporation and various universities [2][35]. - The report details several key projects in China, such as the BEST project and the Jiangxi "Spark" project, highlighting the collaborative landscape of fusion energy development [2][35]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in high-power electronic tubes, vacuum switches, superconducting materials, and other components critical to the nuclear fusion supply chain [3]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Xuguang Electronics, Yingjie Electric, and Guoguang Electric, among others [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive parts industry, particularly in the context of the transition to smart electric vehicles, indicating a historical opportunity for growth in the Chinese automotive sector [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the shift from traditional fuel vehicles to smart electric vehicles presents a significant opportunity for Chinese automotive companies to leapfrog their competitors, potentially leading to the emergence of leading domestic automotive and parts manufacturers [3][4]. - It highlights the historical development and transformation paths of global Tier 1 automotive parts suppliers, particularly focusing on DENSO as a benchmark for Japanese suppliers [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Development of DENSO - DENSO was initially part of Toyota's electrical components division and became independent in 1949, relying heavily on Toyota's orders in its early years [10]. - The company gradually diversified its customer base, reducing dependency on Toyota and expanding to clients like General Motors and Ford [8][10]. - DENSO's success is attributed to its lean management practices, strong customer relationships, and significant investments in technology and R&D [8][10]. 2. Growth Pathways of Global Tier 1 Suppliers - The report categorizes the growth of global automotive parts suppliers into three main pathways: technology-driven, dependent rise, and acquisition-driven growth [7][34]. - It notes that German suppliers are primarily technology-focused, while Japanese and Korean suppliers often receive support from their respective automakers [4][7]. - The report identifies that the automotive parts industry is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards electric and smart technologies, creating new opportunities for both established and emerging players [9][18]. 3. Current Landscape and Future Outlook - The report outlines the competitive landscape, indicating that the transition to electric vehicles is reshaping the supply chain dynamics, with new entrants and traditional manufacturers adapting to the changing market [18][19]. - It highlights the importance of high-value components such as powertrains, automotive electronics, and chassis systems as key growth areas for suppliers [24][28]. - The report also discusses the increasing globalization of Chinese suppliers, with companies like Top Group and New Spring Group expanding their overseas presence [7][9]. 4. Financial Performance and Market Position - DENSO is positioned as the second-largest automotive parts supplier globally, with a diverse product portfolio and a strong focus on innovation and quality [10][32]. - The report provides insights into the revenue distribution among the top global suppliers, indicating that German and Japanese companies dominate the market, while Chinese suppliers have significant growth potential [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) [7] Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi is transitioning from an "Internet company" to a "hardcore technology" company, with significant investments in self-developed chips and electric vehicles [2] - The launch of the Xiaomi 17 series and the introduction of customized automotive services are expected to enhance sales and profitability [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Product Launch and Innovation - On September 25, Xiaomi held its annual event, unveiling the Xiaomi 17 series, Xiaomi Pad 8 series, and various other products, including the Xiaomi TV S Pro Mini LED 2026 and Mi Home appliances [1] - The Xiaomi 17 series features a starting price of 4,499 RMB, equipped with a new 6.3-inch OLED screen and the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor, showing a 20% performance improvement over the previous generation [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 509.30 billion RMB in 2025, 640.91 billion RMB in 2026, and 749.65 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 44.44 billion RMB, 64.05 billion RMB, and 81.83 billion RMB [6] - The expected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29, 20, and 16, respectively [5] Automotive Business Development - The Xiaomi YU7 has achieved significant sales, with over 240,000 units locked in within 18 hours of launch, and it is noted for its impressive range and family-friendly features [4] - The introduction of customized services for the YU7 aims to enhance profit margins in the automotive sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the era of cloud computing and AI is opening up significant business opportunities in the overseas market, with a focus on companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [4][31] - Alibaba's strategy emphasizes the development of large models as the next generation operating system and the establishment of a super AI cloud to meet growing demands [10][20] - The report outlines a comprehensive AI infrastructure upgrade by Alibaba, which includes significant capital expenditure plans and the establishment of new data centers globally [20][23] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.07%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.96% during the week of September 22-26 [2][39] Industry News - Alibaba announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to integrate Physical AI into its AI platform, enhancing capabilities in data processing and model training [32] Company Dynamics - Major developments include a significant asset restructuring involving Dazhihui and a planned share reduction by major shareholders of Hehe Information [3][36] Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the dual breakthroughs in foundational models and cloud computing technology, suggesting a focus on companies involved in cloud platforms, computing power leasing, optical communication, and AI collaboration [4][31] - The report also discusses the strategic partnerships formed by Alibaba with various companies to enhance its AI and cloud capabilities [28][29]

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment is currently weak, with a poor profit effect, and significant downward movement in interest rates requires strong event-driven stimuli, such as large-scale bond purchases, central bank rate cuts, or significant declines in equity markets [1][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but a rebound opportunity is more likely if the yield approaches 1.9% [1][8] - The report suggests maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and focusing on a barbell structure due to the difficulty in significantly steepening the yield curve in a weak market environment [2][39] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of selecting specific bonds, with a focus on the 30-year government bond 25T6, which is expected to become the next main bond due to its good liquidity and upcoming issuance [3][12] - The yield spread between 25T6 and 25T2 is currently around 10 basis points, with expectations that this spread will compress to about 6 basis points as 25T6 gains prominence [12] - The report also emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of new regulations on fund redemptions, which may lead to increased volatility in certain bond types [2][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current bond yield valuations are not expensive compared to other asset classes, but the profit effect from bonds remains weak, making them less attractive [27][28] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 1.93% in the coming month, reflecting a weak outlook based on the constructed interest rate prediction model [23][24] - The report notes that the yield curve is expected to remain relatively flat, with short-term government bonds showing more resilience compared to long-term bonds [38][39]