早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 在离岸人民币强劲升值的背景下，周二两市主要指数低开震荡上行后波动，机器人 | | | | | 板块领涨 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.04% at 986.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 5.36% at 18792 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 30, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous day at 1071.99 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons to 16455.42 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.5% [1] - In the early morning of the 31st, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in the December meeting, but officials had serious differences. If inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials think further rate cuts are appropriate. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain an adequate supply of reserves and will remove the total limit on the standing repurchase operation [1] Market Logic - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflects the dependence of the future rate - cut rhythm on economic data and the divergence of policy paths. The market's expectation of a rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% recently, and it declined slightly on Tuesday [1] - CME Group raised the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. On Monday, precious metals fell sharply. On Tuesday, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons, indicating strong buying support for silver [1] - On December 30, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.22. On December 30, COMEX gold rose first and then fell, while COMEX silver rebounded significantly [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3125 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 593 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 2532 亿元。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 62 元至 5470 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5360 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5206 元/吨（环比+39）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 652 手至 1.72 万手，空头持仓增加 1863 至 2.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 月 22 日，中国纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.3 万 吨，较上期库存 28 万吨累库 1.3 万吨，环比上升 4.6 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1088.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.47%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1680.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.30%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1108.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 1.86%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1714.0，环比日盘收盘上 | | | | | 涨 1.99%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、29 日邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2026 年 | | | | | 1 月 1 日零点执行。 | | | | | 2、12 月 29 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 29 日，元旦假期在即，市场交投谨慎，植物油板块承压，棕榈油技术位面临 较大压力，豆油和菜籽油呈现弱势振荡。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7818 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增仓 | | | | | 3768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7716 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.31%，日增 | | | | | 仓 646 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8512 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.65%，日减 | | | | | 仓 26557 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 5 元至 2182 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | 格上涨 15 元至 2150 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 672 手至 46.1 万手，空头持 | | | | | 仓减少 6775 手至 58.3 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨，较上一期数据增加 19.37 吨。 | | | | | 其 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 4% at 975.8 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 8.74% at 17,237 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important News - As of December 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, while the持仓 of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 84.6 tons to 16305.96 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [1] - Trump confirmed that the US military attacked a large - scale facility in the Venezuelan operation. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, he supports strikes against Iran [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains within 20%. CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment on December 26, raising the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking. On December 29, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.04% to 98.00, and both COMEX gold and silver declined significantly with silver fluctuating violently throughout the day [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust positions and control risks [1]

联系方式：0371-65617380 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅0.54%，收于2249元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2127元/吨，较上周五涨9元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2266元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五跌9元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日港口价格明显上涨。锦州港收购价2265-22 | | | | | 80元/吨，较上周五涨25元/吨；蛇口港成交价2410元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨。 | | | ...