Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环内 商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"3 年"调减为"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"调减 为"1 年"；多子女家庭五环内可多购买 1 套房；商贷利率不再区分首套房和二套 房，二套房公积金贷款最低首付比例下调至 25%。 2、中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨，环比下降 1.3%； 钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同旬增长 2.6%。 3、据媒体消息，美国政府 23 日宣布，将在 2027 年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了 上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在 18 个月内不对中国 芯片加征额外关税。 4、今年国家电网完成固定资产投资将超过 6500 亿元 ...

研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | | | | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 农林畜 | | | | | | 品种 棉花 | | | | | | 多（空） 偏多 | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 64.24 涨 23 点，5 月 65.49 涨 29 点，7 月 66.58 涨 31 点；成 交约 2.6 万手。 郑棉总成交 361542 手，持仓 1122841 手。结算价 1 月 14205 元/吨，5 月 14150 元/吨，9 月 14315 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、根据日本有关机构统计数据，11 月日本进口棉花 1701 吨，环比（1822 吨） 减 少 6.6%， 同 比 （ 2374 吨 ） 减 少 28.3%。 从 累 计 情 况 看 ， 2025/26 年 度 （2025.8-2026.7）日本累计进口棉花约 6692 吨，同比（9912 吨）减少 32.5%。 2、根据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12 月 12 日至 12 月 18 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level, waiting for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The two - meal sector is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On December 24, the strength and weakness of the vegetable oil sector were further differentiated. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil were weak. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,562 lots in positions; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 7,700 yuan/ton, down 0.23% day - on - day, with an increase of 119 lots in positions. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8,488 yuan/ton, up 0.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 37,874 lots in positions; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 8,364 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 360 lots in positions. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 1.50% day - on - day, with an increase of 7,936 lots in positions; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 8,938 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 35 lots in positions [1] Important Information - International oil prices closed slightly lower on December 24, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% to settle at 58.35 dollars per barrel. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17%. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the same period last month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased slightly. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December, and the energy minister said the mandatory B50 addition plan will start in the second half of 2026. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3178 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.76%; edible palm oil inventory was 617,800 tons, a weekly increase of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.08%; rapeseed oil inventory was 358,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.29%. - As of December 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 98 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 437.03 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, the basis was 570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.85 [1][2] Market Logic - External market: Before the Christmas holiday in the US market, capital adjustment drove up the price of US soybean oil. Although international crude oil prices rose, the overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and the lack of enthusiasm for purchases by major consumer countries made the rebound of Malaysian palm oil show signs of weakness. - Domestic market: For domestic soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the high crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills coexisted with long and short factors, and traders were cautious in stocking up. For palm oil, the strong performance of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders planned to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquired about the price of crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the rise in the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract followed suit. As the Christmas holiday approached, capital mainly left the market, and the market focused on whether the 05 contract could effectively break through the pressure level of 9,000 yuan. In the spot market, the transaction of genetically modified and non - genetically modified rapeseed oil in East China was good, and the basis quotation was also supported, showing a slight increase of 30 - 50 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For new vegetable oil orders, conduct intraday trading and maintain a short - term bearish view in the long - term. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 8,400, support level 7,400. - Y2609: Pressure level 8,040, support level 7,370. - P2605: Pressure level 8,626, support level 7,940. - P2609: Pressure level 8,578, support level 7,880. - OI2605: Pressure level 9,200, support level 8,250. - OI2609: Pressure level 9,300, support level 8,400. - Arbitrage: None [2] Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On December 24, the market sentiment was cautious, and the two - meal prices mainly oscillated at a low level. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2,728 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,121 lots in positions; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 2,850 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 4,938 lots in positions. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day - on - day, with an increase of 10,459 lots in positions; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2,400 yuan/ton, down 0.12% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,092 lots in positions [2] Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 4% from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. - As of December 11, the sowing of the 2025/2026 season's soybeans in Brazil was 97% complete, up from 94% a week ago. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/2026 season's soybean production in Brazil may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons. - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 90.6%. - Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons. - US farmers welcomed the latest 12 - billion - dollar agricultural aid plan announced by President Trump but generally believed that this amount was far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of 34 - 44 billion dollars this year. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons compared to last week, 591,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 785,900 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 109,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a decrease of 184,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 28.36%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, 81,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 5,000 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, the same as last week, and the contract volume was also 0 tons, the same as last week. - On December 19, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 550,143.732 tons of imported soybeans from the State Reserve, and the actual transaction volume was 179,701.674 tons, with a transaction rate of 32.66% and an average transaction price of 3,751 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 22,000 tons; the basis price of soybean meal was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 141,000 tons; the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 372 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,426 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis price of rapeseed meal was 2,469 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The US soybean January futures crushing profit was - 481 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 79 yuan/ton; the Brazilian soybean February futures crushing profit was - 99 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 246 yuan/ton. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 3,908 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,577 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment was 481 dollars/ton, and the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 440 dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed for January shipment was 489 dollars/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed for January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2][3] Market Logic - External market: Capital adjustment before Christmas led to a rebound in US soybean prices. In the spot market, most oil mill quotes remained stable, with some local areas reducing prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading was stable, lacking obvious driving factors. Under the high - inventory pressure, traders made rolling replenishments, and feed mills maintained safety inventories and made rigid purchases. They were rational about Spring Festival stocking. Currently, the spot supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China is relatively tight, so the basis quotation is expected to remain stable with a slight increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. In the short term, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal is expected to have strong support at the bottom and mainly adjust through range - bound oscillations [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 2,858, support level 2,660. - M2607: Pressure level 2,840, support level 2,559. - M2609: Pressure level 2,920, support level 2,717. - RM2605: Pressure level 2,444, support level 2,220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2,429, support level 2,200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2,448, support level 2,274. - Arbitrage: None [4]

重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货持平，报 4505.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 1.04%，报 71.88 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.16%报 6088 元/克，沪银 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The pressure level for the main 2605 contract is 800, and the support level is 734 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - Iron ore closed higher during the night session on Wednesday [1] Important Information - Beijing optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing household families, allowing multi - child families to buy an additional house within the Fifth Ring Road, and adjusting mortgage and provident fund loan policies [1] - In mid - December, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period. Steel inventory was 16.01 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% increase from the same period last month [1] - The US government announced on the 23rd that it will impose tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, ending the trade investigation initiated by the previous Biden administration. However, it decided not to impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [1] - This year, the State Grid will complete fixed - asset investment exceeding 650 billion yuan, setting a new record [1] Market Logic - Last week, both the shipment and arrival of iron ore decreased. Mines may make concentrated shipments near the end of the month, which restricts the upward space of iron ore prices [1] Trading Strategy - Iron ore is expected to oscillate. The pressure level for the main 2605 contract is 800, and the support level is 734 [1]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [3] Core View - The current market has weak supply and demand with no prominent contradictions. It is expected that steel mill production will continue to operate at a low level, and the increase in demand during the off - season is limited. The screw and coil futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the resistance level for rebar at 3200 and the support level at 3030. Short - term operations are recommended [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher during the night session on Wednesday [3] Important Information - Beijing has further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing household registration families to purchase houses, allowing multi - child families to buy an additional house within the Fifth Ring Road, and adjusting mortgage and provident fund loan policies [3] - According to CISA data, in mid - December, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.01 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% increase from the same period last month [3] - The US government announced on the 23rd that it will impose tariffs on Chinese chips in 2027, ending a trade investigation initiated by the previous Biden administration. However, it will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [3] - This year, the State Grid will complete fixed - asset investment of over 650 billion yuan, a record high [3] Market Logic - The current market has weak supply and demand with no prominent contradictions. Steel mill production is expected to remain at a low level, and demand growth in the off - season is limited [3] Trading Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended [3]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1132.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.58%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1746.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.29%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 159%；J2605 合约收于 1722.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 1.37%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨，环比下降 1.3%； | | | | | 钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同旬增长 2.6%。 | | | | | 2、北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环内 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Short - term long [1] - Pig: Hold [1][3] - Egg: Hold [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to seasonal selling pressure and farmers' reluctance to sell. In the medium - term, the upside of the spot price is limited. In the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution and planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the pig price is slightly stronger. In the medium - term, the supply will increase before March next year and decrease after April. In the long - term, the supply pressure will exist before September next year and may weaken after that [1][3]. - Egg: In the short - term, the spot price is weak and stable. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. In the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [3]. Summary by Variety Corn Market Conditions - Yesterday night, the corn futures fluctuated narrowly. The 2603 contract rose 0.09% and closed at 2193 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices were weakly stable. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2122 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in North China was 2280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Port prices were weakly stable. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2235 - 2240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and at Shekou Port, the bulk grain transaction price was 2380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - On December 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 486 to 51763 [1]. - On December 24, China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales of 153 tons were all sold, and the purchase plan of 17.3 tons had a transaction volume of 9.2 tons with a transaction rate of 53% [1]. Trading Strategy - Maintain an interval trading strategy in the medium - and long - term. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190, and if it holds, short - term long opportunities can be considered. The short - term resistance is at 2215 - 2230 [1]. Pig Market Conditions - Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated strongly. The 2603 contract rose 0.88% and closed at 11480 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The national average pig price was 11.54 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning pig price today is expected to vary in different regions [1]. - In October 2025, the number of sows was 39.9 million, below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1]. - From January to September this year, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July), indicating an increase in pig slaughter before March next year. In October, it decreased, so the supply pressure will ease after April [1]. - As of December 18, the average slaughter weight was 124.47 kg, up 0.09 kg from the previous week [1]. - On December 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.37 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [1]. - On December 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 863 [1]. Trading Strategy - The 2603 contract should maintain an interval trading strategy. For far - month contracts, trade the difference in the de - capacity expectation driven by policies. If the sow inventory continues to decline, long opportunities after September next year can be considered [3]. Egg Market Conditions - Yesterday, egg futures contracts all rose. The 2602 contract rose 2.29% and closed at 2947 yuan/500KG [3]. Important Information - The egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The inventory increased slightly. The average production - link inventory was 1.14 days, up 0.01 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, unchanged [3]. - The average price of old hens was 3.87 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. As of December 18, the weekly culling age was 486 days, unchanged [3]. - In November, the number of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 5.30%. The estimated number in December is 1.345 billion, a 0.52% decrease [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see. For the 2602 contract, the resistance is at 2970 - 3000, and for the 2603 contract, it is at 3000 - 3040. Focus on whether the low - price - driven culling can last and start the de - capacity process [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and financial sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the Q4 macro - economy. With the central bank's monetary policy adjustment and the continuous loosening of funds near the end of the year, bond futures may oscillate slightly up in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened slightly lower and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.02%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A Index opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.90 trillion yuan, showing little change from the previous trading day's 1.92 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 468 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan [1] - **Money Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26% throughout the day (1.27% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.38% (1.41% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond dropped 1.01 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.34 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.04 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year dropped 0.30 BP to 2.22% [1] - **Real Estate Policy**: On December 24th, four departments in Beijing jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, aiming to stabilize market expectations and stimulate reasonable housing demand [1] - **Monetary Policy Meeting**: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting stated that China's economy is generally stable with progress, but still faces challenges such as a prominent supply - demand imbalance. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and maintain ample liquidity [1][2] - **MLF Operations**: On December 25th, the central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing in December, there will be a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs. In addition, the central bank has also made a net injection of 200 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchases in December, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity in December [2] - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000, lower than the forecast of 223,500. The number of continuing jobless claims in the week ending December 13th was 1.923 million, higher than the forecast of 1.9 million [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both dropped 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a moderate inflation level [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For trading - type investors, it is recommended to conduct band operations [2]

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三成长类指数带动市场走强，市场人气逐步恢复，航天卫星板块涨幅居前。两市 | | | | | 成交额 1.88 万亿元，基本无变化。中证 500 指数收 7352 点，涨 95 点，涨幅 1.31%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 7506 点，涨 113 点，涨幅 1.54%；沪深 300 指数收 4634 点，涨 | | | | 13 | 点，涨幅 0.29%；上证 50 指数收 3025 点，跌 2 点，跌幅-0.08%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是卫星产业 ETF、通用航空 ETF 南方、航天 ETF、科创材料 ETF、高端 | | | | | 装备 ETF，跌幅居前的是畜牧 ETF、养殖 ETF、农业 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前 | | | | | 的是航天装备、玻璃玻纤、元器件、商业航天、大飞机指数，跌幅居前的是养殖业、 | | | | | 贵金属、煤炭开采、饲料、游戏指数。中证 500、中证 1000、沪深 300、上证 ...