Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector is bullish [2] Core View - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise. The expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year stimulate the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined. Overall, a bullish view is maintained on Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term correction risks should be alerted [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - ICE March contract settlement price rose 23 points, May contract was at 65.49 (up 29 points), July contract was at 66.58 (up 31 points), with a trading volume of about 26,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 452,688 lots, and the open interest was 1,132,769 lots. The settlement prices were 14,255 yuan/ton for January, 14,215 yuan/ton for May, and 14,380 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from October (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease from the same period last year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease from the previous year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to December 18, the United States graded and inspected 19.93 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 242.43 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. The CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise due to the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year, which stimulates the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, and partially take profits on the long futures positions [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel market is expected to continue oscillating, with the rebar having a pressure level of 3200 and a support level of 3030. Short - term operations are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher, but closed lower at night [1] Important Information - Multiple cities including Handan, Baoding, Xingtai, and Xi'an have launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses, and Anhui has issued a provincial orange warning for heavy - pollution weather [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 796.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.99 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 833.61 million tons, with building material consumption decreasing by 3.2% month - on - month and plate consumption increasing by 1.4% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - Most steel mills have not introduced winter storage policies, only a few in Northeast and North China have. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the profit margin is still low, and production continues to operate at a low level. This week, steel production decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the consumption side was divided, with building material consumption decreasing and plate consumption increasing. It is still the off - season, and most manufacturers have not carried out winter storage. The prices of raw fuels have not fluctuated much, and costs still support steel prices [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

Group 1 - Morning session notice released on December 26, 2025, by Green Grand Futures Research Institute, with researcher Ji Xiaoyun [1] - Contact information for the researcher: 010 - 56711796 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level. Traders should wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the meal sector, it will rebound from a low level, and traders should wait for new selling points after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary of Relevant Content by Category Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On December 25, the vegetable oil sector was generally strong. The departure of a large number of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound momentum of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7824 yuan/ton, up 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 15,708 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On December 24, international oil prices closed slightly lower, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The 2 - month crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% [1] - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuels next week. Tax credit increases may boost the processing enthusiasm of biodiesel producers [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month. Its exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in November [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 1.77 million tons week - on - week, a 0.77% decrease [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the domestic market, soybean oil production is less than demand recently, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remain high. For palm oil, the strong trend of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market. In the rapeseed oil market, the intention of some traders to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory in East China have led to a rise in prices [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, new vegetable oil orders should be traded intraday, and long - term short - selling thinking should be maintained. For example, the pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 8400, and the support level is 7400 [2] Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On December 25, the meal sector was strong. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2760 yuan/ton, up 1.17% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 69,401 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was 97% complete. StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons [2][3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, China's imported soybean inventory decreased by 409,000 tons week - on - week, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week [3] - On December 24, there was a market rumor that the customs inspection procedure would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Before Christmas, funds were re - allocated, and US soybeans rebounded. In the spot market, oil mills raised their prices, but traders were cautious. The market is waiting for news of oil mill shutdown in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a low - level rebound. Traders should wait for new selling points after the rebound ends. For example, the pressure level of the M2605 contract is 2858, and the support level is 2660 [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - Global stock markets have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to show results [1]. - The global economy is starting to weaken as the US is making continuous wrong policies and the US is contracting globally under the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - **Stock Market**: High - end judgment indicates that global stocks are in a bull - market "optimistic phase" with a 15% total return in 2026 including dividends. The market is transitioning from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is effective [1]. - **Space and Resources**: Russia plans to build a lunar nuclear power plant by 2036, and the US plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030. The competition between the two countries is about the development dominance of strategic resources on the moon [1]. - **Corporate Acquisition**: Jiangxi Copper has acquired Australian miner SolGold for up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador with one of South America's largest undeveloped copper - gold deposits [1]. - **Employment Market**: The US employment market shows a warming signal. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to 214,000, lower than the previous value. Although the number of continued unemployment claims rose slightly to 1.923 million, it is still significantly lower than the annual high [1]. - **Currency Market**: Due to the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and political uncertainty, the US dollar has been sold off, falling nearly 10% this year and approaching its worst performance in 20 years. Non - US currencies are strengthening, gold has hit a record high, and the yen has become a new market focus [1]. - **Technology and Advertising**: OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT to monetize its nearly 900 million user base, which may challenge the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [1]. - **Banking Regulation**: US regulators have proposed to relax bank regulations, allowing large banks to increase leverage, reform stress tests, and revoke high - risk loan guidelines. The total market value of six major US banks has risen from $1.77 trillion at the end of last year to $2.38 trillion and is expected to outperform the S&P 500 for two consecutive years [1]. - **Bond Market**: Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years, to ease concerns about excessive debt supply, while keeping the issuance of medium - and short - term bonds unchanged [1]. - **Economic Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, expanding its balance sheet. Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts". The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning before the 2008 financial crisis. The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China. The K - shaped differentiation of US consumers is intensifying. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0%. Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in 4 - 5 years. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aerospace satellite sector soared again on Thursday, driving the growth - style indices stronger, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with earnings in 2026 continuing to support the market. The total return rate, including dividends, will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from "expectation - driven" to "earnings - driven". Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, the aerospace satellite sector led the growth - style indices higher. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.92 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The CSI 500 index closed at 7410 points, up 58 points or 0.80%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7579 points, up 73 points or 0.97%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3032 points, up 7 points or 0.25%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4642 points, up 8 points or 0.18% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETFs, aerospace ETFs, etc. led the gains, while gold stock ETFs, mining ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the two - market sector indices, aerospace equipment, motor manufacturing, etc. led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, etc. led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1.3 billion, 1.1 billion, and 0.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. 2. Important Information - Since December, a large number of investors have been deploying in the A - share market by subscribing to CSI A500ETF, becoming one of the main incremental funds in the recent market. The significant net inflow of A500ETF is due to the "calendar effect" of "volume - boosting" at the end of the quarter and the balanced industry configuration of the CSI A500 index [1]. - Goldman Sachs judges that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar have broken through key levels, hitting new highs since the end of September 2024. The market has a consensus expectation of RMB appreciation in 2026 [1]. - The deputy chief designer of Zhuque - 3 hopes to achieve successful recovery by mid - 2026. Once successful, the three rockets already produced will be quickly iterated [1]. - Russia plans to build a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2036, and the US NASA plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030 [1]. - Jiangxi Copper has successfully acquired Australian miner SolGold, with a transaction value of up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador [2]. - The US dollar has been sold off significantly this year, while non - US currencies have strengthened across the board, and gold has hit a record high [2]. - OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT, which may pose a potential challenge to the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [2]. - Western auto giants such as Ford and Renault are compressing the new - car development cycle to about two years, learning from the "Chinese model" [2]. - The US job market shows signs of recovery, with the number of initial jobless claims falling last week [2]. - US regulatory agencies have proposed to relax bank regulations, and the total market value of six major US banks has increased significantly [2]. - Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years [2]. 3. Market Logic - The aerospace satellite sector's rise on Thursday drove the growth - style indices higher, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - As of December 20, ETFs investing in Chinese assets have received a cumulative net inflow of $83.1 billion in 2025. The technology sector has received the most foreign capital inflows, reaching $9.5 billion [2]. - In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major incremental funds in the stock market, and the scale of public - offering fixed - income + products will at least double [2][3]. 4. Future Market Outlook - The growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan or 56% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - JPMorgan believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [3]. - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [3]. 5. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, as some institutions have started the spring market in advance, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are continuously strengthening. After the short - term technical indicators are repaired, the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market. The trading strategy has shifted from defense to offense, and investors should establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indices as the main targets in batches [3]. - For stock index option trading, as an upward market is expected to gradually unfold, investors should open call options on the CSI 1000 index at an appropriate time [3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环内 商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"3 年"调减为"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"调减 为"1 年"；多子女家庭五环内可多购买 1 套房；商贷利率不再区分首套房和二套 房，二套房公积金贷款最低首付比例下调至 25%。 2、中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨，环比下降 1.3%； 钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同旬增长 2.6%。 3、据媒体消息，美国政府 23 日宣布，将在 2027 年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了 上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在 18 个月内不对中国 芯片加征额外关税。 4、今年国家电网完成固定资产投资将超过 6500 亿元 ...