Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes agricultural modernization, focusing on stabilizing grain production, promoting healthy development in animal husbandry, and enhancing agricultural technology innovation [3][4][5] - The grain production target has been raised to approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with initiatives to improve grain quality and variety [5][6] - The document acknowledges the success of previous measures in the livestock sector and introduces new strategies to boost dairy product consumption [8][9] - Agricultural technology innovation is highlighted, with a focus on the implementation of breeding actions and the integration of AI in agriculture [15][21] Summary by Sections Grain Sector - The document sets a grain production target of stabilizing at around 1.4 trillion jin and emphasizes quality improvement and variety enhancement [5][7] - It includes measures to protect farmers' interests, such as determining minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat [5][7] - The document also stresses the importance of developing a futures market for agricultural products [5][7] Livestock Sector - The document reinforces the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of previous measures in stabilizing the beef and dairy industries [8][9][11] - It promotes measures to enhance dairy product consumption and supports the development of forage crops [9][11] Agricultural Technology - The document continues to emphasize the implementation of breeding actions and the promotion of breakthrough varieties [15][16][17] - It encourages the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery and the integration of AI, drones, and IoT into agricultural practices [21][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture [27] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Co., TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [27] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [27] - Feed: HaiDa Group [27] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [27] - Animal Health: HuiSheng Bio [27] - Planting Chain: Hainan Rubber, QuanYin High-Tech, Guotou Fengle, and LongPing High-Tech [27]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 金融工程日报 沪指午后上行重回 4100 点，光伏、煤炭领涨 市场表现：20260204 规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综 指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。煤炭、建材、房地产、 交通运输、食品饮料行业表现较好，传媒、通信、计算机、电子、基础化工 行业表现较差。央企煤炭、光伏玻璃、机场精选、BC 电池、甲醇等概念表 现较好，拼多多合作商、小红书平台、Kimi、智谱 AI、快手平台等概念表现 较差。 市场情绪：20260204 收盘时有 77 只股票涨停，有 16 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日收盘收益为 3.15%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-0.83%。今日 封板率 74%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 18%，较前日下降 18%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260203 两融余额为 27066 亿元，其中融资余额 26898 亿元，融券余额 167 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.6%。 折溢价：20260203 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是沪港深 300ETF 易方达，ETF 折价较多的 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal in the industry [1][12] - The recommended stocks include leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pork, poultry, and pet food, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, benefiting companies like Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [14][17] - The domestic beef market is anticipated to improve due to reduced production capacity and favorable pricing dynamics, with beef prices currently at 61.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.59% [29] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings recovery for dairy farming companies as milk prices are expected to rebound, driven by improved market conditions [14][17] Pork Sector - The pork sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with January 2026 pork prices at 12.16 yuan/kg, down 4% month-on-month, while piglet prices have surged by 57.86% [20][21] - Leading companies in the pork industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Huazhong Holdings, are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend returns as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a rationalization process, with a focus on reducing production capacity and enhancing profitability for leading firms [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with broiler prices showing a month-on-month increase of 2.94% to 7.70 yuan/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand [22][23] - The report suggests that the white-feathered chicken industry is poised for price recovery as domestic demand stabilizes, supported by seasonal consumption trends [22][24] - The overall outlook for poultry remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [22][24] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [16][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pet food companies, which are focusing on product upgrades and direct sales strategies to capture market opportunities [16][18] - The pet food export volume has increased by 12.99% month-on-month, indicating robust demand in international markets [16][18] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the deepening industrialization of livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for livestock producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have shown a slight increase to 2333 yuan/ton [2][21] - The overall agricultural market is characterized by a focus on supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of tightening supply for key commodities like soybeans and corn [20][21]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码后通过多重举措规范竞争，但下 游并网增速下滑、终端需求疲软导致硅料等环节提价压力难以传导，制约政 策效果。 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 宏观经济深度报告 反内卷系列一：将"反内卷"进行到底 反内卷政策是决策层针对产能过剩、无序竞争问题认知深化的产物，是全国 统一大市场建设从顶层设计向实践落地的重要环节。 政策演进看： （1）政策演进分为三个阶段，2023 年初-2024 年 6 月，中央点明相关风险， 2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月中央首次提出防范"内卷式"恶性竞争，部分行业 开展自律探索但缺乏协同与刚性约束，2025 年 7 月至今为系统化实施期。 （2）核心定位方面，反内卷核心是破解地方保护主义与市场分割导致的资 源错配，与统一大市场形成双向支撑，前者为后者扫清不当竞争障碍，后者 为前者提供制度框架，共同服务于高质量发展。 实施特征看： （1）实施特征方面，呈现部委协同治理、行业自律为基、产能价格双控、 甄别标准多元四大特点。 （2）行业治理模式方面，煤炭、钢铁等传统上游行业以行政干预为主，多 晶硅、光伏等新兴及下游领域以行业自律为主，部分领域采用行政与自律结 合的模式。 （3）典型案例方面，光伏产业作为新兴产业内卷代表，经历"自律失败-政 策加力-实质推进"历程，2025 年政策加码 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the pesticide industry [4][7]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a 27.52% increase year-on-year [1][41]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][50]. - As of January 30, 2026, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan, stable compared to the previous month [2][50]. - Companies with clear expansion plans such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are recommended for investment [7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][7]. - The production of glyphosate in China is projected to grow significantly from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [4][7]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are expected to benefit from price increases and improved margins [7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease slightly in 2024 while imports reach a historical high [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.52% [1][41]. - Key companies recommended include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 280 million tons in 2025 and 400 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei [2][50]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is driving the growth of phosphate rock consumption, with significant price increases observed in related products [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co., which has clear expansion plans, and Yuntianhua, a leading player in the phosphate chemical sector [5][7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][5]. - The market for glyphosate is projected to grow significantly, with production expected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [4][5]. - Companies recommended in this sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing market dynamics [5][7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 房地产行业专题 优于大市 香港楼市复苏的复盘、展望与借鉴 长周期视角下 2025 年香港楼市复盘。2025 年香港私人住宅成交量+21%，为 2013 年以来的第二高水平，连续两年规模上涨；价格指数自 3 月确认底部后 连续三个季度企稳回升，较底部回升 4.8%，全年+3.3%；租金指数全年+4.3%， 已超过 2019 年达到历史新高。本轮复苏呈典型的"量在价先"，成交量处 于历史高分位，价格较 2021 年 9 月的历史高点仍有大约 25%的回撤，目前大 约在 2016 年三季度的位置水平。 比较 1997-2003 和 2021-2025 两轮下跌周期，前者属于"资产泡沫破裂+本 地金融危机"，为极端信用收缩情形，后者属于对"估值回调+宏观利率变 化"的反应。由于下跌原因的不同， 两者回撤时间、跌幅、冲击力等方面 均有差异，前者回撤周期 69 个月，跌幅达 66%，后者回撤周期 42 个月，跌 幅达 28%。 2021-2025 下跌周期显然更加温和，且目前复苏周期"政策+利率+需求+内地 红利"的共振幅度小于 2003 年，我们预计中期内香港房地产市场的复苏将 ...