Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][35] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in 2025, achieving revenue of 349.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [1][9] - The company is expanding its three main business segments: copper, gold, and lithium, with significant growth expected in lithium production [29][34] - The company has completed several major acquisitions, including the Akim Gold Mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok Gold Mine in Kazakhstan, which are expected to enhance its resource base [2][29] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit of 13.91 billion yuan, up 80.86% year-on-year [1][9] - The company plans to increase gold production to 105 tons in 2026, a 17.3% increase, and copper production to 1.2 million tons, a 10.6% increase [1][12] - The unit operating costs for gold and copper increased by 19.34% and 11.05% respectively in 2025, indicating rising cost pressures [2][13] Dividend and Share Buyback - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.38 yuan per share, totaling approximately 10.1 billion yuan, and has announced a share buyback plan of 1.5 to 2.5 billion yuan [3][26] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are set at 511.5 billion yuan, 548.3 billion yuan, and 566.3 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 46.5%, 7.2%, and 3.3% respectively [4][35] - Net profit projections for the same period are 84.42 billion yuan, 99.73 billion yuan, and 106.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 63.0%, 18.1%, and 6.7% respectively [4][35] Market Position - The company is positioned as a core player in the domestic non-ferrous metal sector, with rich mineral resources and a clear long-term growth path, aiming to become a leading global mining enterprise [4][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][18] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 1.921 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.12%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 504 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.61%. Excluding stock incentive expenses, the net profit is expected to grow by 24% [1][3] - The user base and value of the China Manufacturing Network have seen significant growth, with revenue from AI business increasing by 117%. The main business revenue is projected to be 1.601 billion yuan, up 18.11% year-on-year, with paid member numbers increasing by 8.67% to 29,793 [2][3] - The company has announced a dividend plan for the next three years, intending to distribute at least 70% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company as cash dividends from 2026 to 2028 [1][3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to generate operating cash flow of 888 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.83%. The overall cash flow situation is reported to be good [2] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 79.3%, with a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio is expected to be 35.76%, down 0.28 percentage points, and the management expense ratio is forecasted at 8.8%, down 0.93 percentage points, indicating overall expense optimization [2] - The financial forecast for the company includes projected revenues of 2.215 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.505 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits of 588 million yuan and 697 million yuan respectively [4][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][35][6] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in 2025, achieving a revenue of 349.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% year-on-year [1][9] - The company has successfully expanded its three main business segments: copper, gold, and lithium, with significant growth in production and revenue expected in the coming years [29][35] - The company has completed several major acquisitions, including the Akim Gold Mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok Gold Mine in Kazakhstan, which are expected to enhance its resource base and production capacity [2][29] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit of 13.91 billion yuan, up 80.86% year-on-year [1][9] - The production of key mineral products in 2025 included 89.54 tons of gold (up 22.77% year-on-year) and 1.0851 million tons of copper (up 1.56% year-on-year) [1][12] - The company plans to increase gold production to 105 tons and copper production to 1.2 million tons in 2026, alongside a significant increase in lithium production [1][12][35] Cost and Margin Analysis - The unit operating cost for gold in 2025 was 275.24 yuan per gram, an increase of 19.34% year-on-year, while the unit cost for copper was 25,461 yuan per ton, up 11.05% year-on-year [2][13] - The overall gross margin for the company in 2025 was 27.73%, an increase of 7.36 percentage points year-on-year, with gold and copper gross margins at 64.61% and 61.04%, respectively [18][35] Dividend and Share Buyback - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.38 yuan per share, totaling approximately 10.1 billion yuan, along with a share buyback plan of 1.5 to 2.5 billion yuan [3][26] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 511.5 billion yuan, 548.3 billion yuan, and 566.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 84.42 billion yuan, 99.73 billion yuan, and 106.38 billion yuan [4][35] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with a projected EPS of 3.17 yuan in 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10.0 [4][35]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors related to construction, evaluation, or testing results [5][17][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Insights - Alibaba's overall performance shows weak e-commerce results while cloud revenue continues to accelerate. In FY26Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 284.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The revenue growth rates for different segments were 6% for the China e-commerce group, 4% for the international digital commerce group, 36% for the cloud intelligence group, and -20% for all others [1][9]. - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 23.4 billion yuan, down 57% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 8.2%. The non-GAAP net profit was 16.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.9%. Free cash flow for the quarter was 11.3 billion yuan, down 71% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in instant retail [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections E-commerce Performance - The China e-commerce group's revenue in FY26Q3 increased by 1% year-on-year, with a significant decline in quarter-on-quarter growth due to base effects from improved monetization rates and weak market performance. Instant retail revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year, contributing to an increase of approximately 150 million active buyers on the platform in 2025 [2][14]. - The adjusted EBITA for the China e-commerce group was 34.6 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 22%, a decline of 19 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to investments in instant retail [2][14]. Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue in FY26Q3 was 43.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 35% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth. Alibaba Cloud's market share has increased to 36% [3][16]. - The company expects external revenue from cloud and AI to exceed 100 billion USD over the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [3][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,033.8 billion yuan, 1,165.4 billion yuan, and 1,318.8 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on cloud revenue growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised to 79.7 billion yuan, 105.7 billion yuan, and 134.3 billion yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected R&D and marketing investments [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][23] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.161 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.5%. The gross profit reached 2.348 billion RMB, up 135.5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.355 billion RMB, also up 135.5% [1][9] - The Solomon Gold Mine expansion project, aiming for an additional 10 million tons per year, is expected to be operational by 2027, significantly enhancing future gold production [3][18] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with the unit sales cost for gold at the Solomon Gold Mine decreasing by 23.9% year-on-year, highlighting a strong cost advantage [2][13] Financial Performance - For 2026-2028, the company forecasts revenues of 6.218 billion RMB, 9.770 billion RMB, and 17.545 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 96.7%, 57.1%, and 79.6% respectively [4][23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.027 billion RMB, 4.422 billion RMB, and 7.965 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 123.4%, 46.1%, and 80.1% respectively [4][23] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.68 RMB, 1.00 RMB, and 1.80 RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 10, and 6 times [4][23] Production and Cost Metrics - In 2025, the total ore processed at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 1.1042 million tons, with copper equivalent sales remaining stable at around 10,304 tons [2][11] - The Solomon Gold Mine's mining volume reached 3.3553 million tons, a 23.7% increase year-on-year, with gold ingot sales of 2,273.6 kg, up 44.5% [2][11] - The unit sales cost for copper equivalent at the Jiangxi Yifeng Xinzhang Mine was approximately 30,800 RMB per ton, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [2][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, with total revenue projected at 1.9213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.12%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 504 million yuan, up 11.61%. Excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit is expected to grow by 24% [1][3]. - The user base and value of the China Manufacturing Network have seen significant growth, with AI business revenue increasing by 117%. The main business revenue reached 1.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%, with paid member numbers growing by 8.67% to 29,793 [2][3]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, intending to distribute at least 70% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company as cash dividends from 2026 to 2028 [1][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 79.3%, with a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow is expected to be 888 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.83% [2][4]. - The financial forecast indicates that by 2028, the company will achieve a net profit of 792 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.9, 18.5, and 16.3 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company's financial performance for 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 16.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.085 billion yuan, up 25.75% year-on-year. The EPS was 0.765 yuan per share, reflecting a growth of 25.68% [1][4] - The company's securities business showed significant revenue growth, achieving 12.535 billion yuan in 2025, a 47.59% increase year-on-year, accounting for 78.02% of total revenue. The company also received approval for market-making qualifications, expanding its business scope [2] - The fund distribution business reached a record high, with sales of 2.61 trillion yuan in 2025, a 38.51% increase year-on-year. The company maintained a strong competitive position with its dual traffic pools and AI technology, which is expected to enhance its advisory and educational services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.086 billion yuan, a 38.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.085 billion yuan, up 25.75% year-on-year. The EPS was 0.765 yuan, with a ROE of 14.03% [1][4] - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 12.4% and 12.2%, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted upwards by 11.1% and 9.5% [4] Business Segments - The securities business generated 12.535 billion yuan in revenue, representing a 47.59% increase year-on-year, and accounted for 78.02% of total revenue. The company’s market share in stock trading decreased, while its margin financing market share slightly increased to 3.1% [2] - The fund distribution business saw sales of 2.61 trillion yuan, surpassing the historical peak in 2021, with a year-end non-money market fund balance of 770.133 billion yuan, a 25.97% increase year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the recovery of the capital market and the growth of its securities and fund distribution businesses, with a focus on enhancing traffic conversion and exploring new business opportunities in wealth management and financial technology [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from March 16 to March 20, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -3.11%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 1.26%, the highest. By sector, the median return of consumer ETFs was -2.16%, the smallest decline. By theme, the median return of bank ETFs was 0.30%, the highest [1][12][16] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan. By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan [2][27][31] - As of last Friday, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext ETFs were relatively low among broad-based ETFs; by sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate; by sub-theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and securities ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 and consumer ETFs decreased significantly [3][34][43] - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases, and CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [4][44][50] - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge ranked top three in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [5][52][55] Summary by Relevant Catalog ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was -3.11%. The median returns of ChiNext, CSI 300, SSE 50, A500, STAR Market, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs were 1.26%, -2.17%, -2.46%, -3.16%, -3.69%, -5.21%, and -5.78% respectively. The median returns of bond, money market, cross-border, and commodity ETFs were 0.06%, 0.02%, -1.02%, and -7.93% respectively [12] - By sector, the median returns of consumer, large financial, technology, and cyclical sector ETFs among equity ETFs last week were -2.16%, -2.67%, -2.86%, and -5.39% respectively. By theme, the median returns of bank, AI, and pharmaceutical ETFs were 0.30%, -0.20%, and -1.79% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of resource, military, and robot ETFs were -10.41%, -6.23%, and -5.99% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16] ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 2.9042 trillion yuan, 961.9 billion yuan, and 725.3 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money market ETFs were relatively small, at 332.4 billion yuan and 173.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the scales of CSI 300 and A500 ETFs were relatively large, at 565.4 billion yuan and 228.9 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of STAR Market, CSI 500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 169.4 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan, and 43.6 billion yuan respectively [20] - By sector, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 490.9 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 350.8 billion yuan. The scales of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively small, at 195.5 billion yuan and 189.7 billion yuan respectively. By theme, the scales of chip, securities, and resource ETFs were the highest as of last Friday, at 179.4 billion yuan, 134.7 billion yuan, and 117 billion yuan respectively [25] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan; money market ETFs had a net subscription of 3.018 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 3.033 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 6.027 billion yuan; A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.229 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 13.825 billion yuan [27] - By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan last week, and its scale decreased by 3.088 billion yuan; cyclical ETFs had the largest net redemption of 19.832 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 51.704 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan last week, and its scale increased by 440 million yuan; resource ETFs had the largest net redemption of 11.516 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 25.163 billion yuan [31] ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 79.52%, 84.31%, 95.87%, 93.89%, 63.09%, and 86.85% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 50.45%, 70.69%, 96.12%, 71.26%, 65.15%, and 86.38% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of STAR Market ETFs are currently at the 74.81% and 76.14% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 ETF decreased significantly [34][35] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 84.31%, 23.20%, 14.95%, and 90.50% quantiles respectively, and their price-to-book ratios were at the 91.41%, 37.74%, 16.89%, and 77.37% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs decreased significantly [36] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings quantiles of dividend, photovoltaic, and military ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 99.75%, and 95.62% respectively; the price-to-book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 99.67%, 95.71%, and 85.55% respectively [40] ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares [44] - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases from Monday to Thursday last week, among which securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases [45] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Margin Trading Purchase, Billion Yuan | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 4.54 | | 159915.SZ | ChiNext ETF E Fund | Scale Index | 3.71 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 3.61 | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 2.42 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 2.19 | | 512000.SH | Brokerage ETF | Industry Index | 2.16 | | 512170.SH | Medical ETF | Theme Index | 2.11 | | 588200.SH | STAR Chip | Theme Index | 1.55 | | 512480.SH | Semiconductor | Industry Index | 1.47 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.45 | - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short selling volumes from Monday to Thursday last week, among which CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [50] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Short Selling Volume, 10,000 Lots | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 6.85 | | 512100.SH | 1000ETF | Scale Index | 6.05 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 4.82 | | 510050.SH | 50ETF | Scale Index | 3.69 | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 2.24 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.41 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 1.31 | | 512800.SH | Bank ETF | Industry Index | 1.29 | | 563360.SH | A500 Fund | Scale Index | 1.25 | | 560010.SH | 1000 Fund | Scale Index | 1.23 | ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub-fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross-border ETFs; E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross-border ETFs; Huatai-PineBridge Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52] - Last week, 10 ETFs were newly established, including ICBC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Industry Theme ETF, Puyin ASSET Management SSE STAR Market Chip Design Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Construction Machinery Theme ETF, Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Tianhong ChiNext New Energy ETF, GF CSI Animal Husbandry and Aquaculture Industry ETF, Dongcai CSI Battery Theme ETF, E Fund China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, and Huaan China Securities Oil and Gas ETF. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints - The economic data from January to February was positive, with the industrial added - value in the production sector rising to 6.3%, the year - on - year growth of fixed asset investment turning positive, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods rising to 2.8%, and exports growing by 19.2%. The domestic economic growth momentum improved. With the volatile Middle East situation causing oil prices to rise and the A - share market plummeting, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall [1][4][10][33]. - The probability of a recent bond market correction is high. Factors include the surge in crude oil due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the good economic growth rate at the beginning of the year reducing the need for significant monetary policy easing, and the reduction in the central bank's bond - buying scale due to the low absolute level of interest rates [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Ultra - long Bond Review - Economic data from January to February was positive, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][4][10]. 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bonds - As of March 20, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 47BP, at a historically low level. The recent bond market correction probability is high, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2][11]. 20 - year China Development Bank Bonds - As of March 20, the spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically low position. The recent bond market correction probability is high, and the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][12]. 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 25.3 trillion. As of February 28, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 1,655,081 billion, accounting for 15.3% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main sub - varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [13]. 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (March 16 - 22, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased. A total of 1,532 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 1,461 billion yuan, and government - supported institutional bonds accounted for 50 billion yuan. By term, 210 billion yuan had a 15 - year term, 836 billion yuan had a 20 - year term, and 486 billion yuan had a 30 - year term [18]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,288 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [22]. 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 9,826 billion yuan, accounting for 9.9% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [24]. Yield - Due to positive economic data and other factors, the bond market mainly declined, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [33]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level [43][44]. 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2606 closed at 110.67 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%. The total trading volume was 384,400 lots (a decrease of 86,770 lots), and the open interest was 134,400 lots (an increase of 3,697 lots) [49].