证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 德尔玛（301332.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年中报点评： 营收利润表现平稳，水健康类新品带动增长 收入利润稳健增长。公司 2025H1 实现营收 16.9 亿/+4.0%，归母净利润 0.7 亿/+1.1%，扣非归母净利润 0.6 亿/-1.1%。其中 Q2 收入 9.1 亿/+0.3%，归 母净利润 0.5 亿/+1.0%，扣非归母净利润 0.4 亿/-0.7%。 水健康类电器增长较好，个护健康类有所承压。2025H1 在新需求与以旧换新 政策拉动下，我国水家电（净水器、净饮机、饮水机等）行业规模增长良好。 奥维云网数据显示，H1 水家电零售额同比增长 21.3%至 156.5 亿，其中净水 器销额增长 22.0%，净饮机销额增长 41.4%，饮水机销额增长 8.9%。公司 H1 飞利浦水健康类收入同比增长 13.7%至 6.6 亿，在新品的带动下实现较快增 长。清洁电器等家居环境类电器需求有所复苏，H1 收入同比增长 3.3%至 6.8 亿。个护健康类受行业需求分化及高基数影响，收入下降 9.2%至 3.4 亿。 境内收入增长良好，海外收入规模有所回落。H1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][37] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.97 billion HKD for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.18 billion HKD, up 8.4% year-on-year [1][10] - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1%, primarily due to increased labor costs from wage hikes for frontline workers and a significant rise in tax expenses [1][10] - The company maintained a high dividend payout, declaring an interim dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, a 10.4% increase from the previous year, with a payout ratio of approximately 59.6% [1][10] Revenue Performance - Revenue growth by product category showed that casual wear sales increased by 37.4%, while sportswear and underwear grew by 9.9% and 4.1%, respectively [2][22] - All four major clients experienced revenue growth, with Client A, B, C, and D increasing by 27.4%, 6.0%, 28.2%, and 14.7% respectively [2][24] - International markets showed strong demand, with sales in the US, Europe, and Japan growing by 35.8%, 19.9%, and 18.1% respectively, while domestic sales declined by 2.1% [2][28] Competitive Positioning - The company's growth outperformed that of its major clients, indicating an increase in market share, particularly as Nike is expected to recover in the coming year [3][32] - The company is the largest player in the industry and continues to enhance its competitive advantage, with significant capital expenditures aimed at expanding integrated production capabilities [3][35] - The new garment factory in Cambodia has commenced operations, and a second fabric factory in Vietnam is expected to start production by the end of the year, enhancing vertical integration and supply chain efficiency [3][35] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 6.576 billion HKD, 7.461 billion HKD, and 8.403 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 5.4%, 13.4%, and 12.6% [4][38] - The target price is set between 75 and 82 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16-17.5x for 2025 [4][37]

策略解读 科创牛：规律和展望 策略研究·策略解读 证券分析师： 王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521030001 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 科创板自设立以来，以其独特的市场定位和对科技创新企业的支持，迅速成为中国资本市场的重要组 成部分。在短短几年间，科创板经历了两次显著的牛市行情，这两次行情不仅展现了市场的活力，也 为投资者带来了回报。 图1：科创 50 指数两次牛市行情 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理 事项： 第一轮牛市复盘：2020 年 3 月至 7 月。2020 年初，全球经济面临诸多不确定性，但中国经济展现出 强大的韧性。在此背景下，科创板迎来了其首轮波澜壮阔的牛市行情。从 2020 年 3 月 31 日到 7 月 13 日，科创板 50 指数从约 1029.75 点飙升至 1721.98 点，涨幅高达 67.22%。同期，创业板指数上 涨 54.36%，上证综合指数上涨 25.20%。这充分显示了科创板在当时市场中的领先地位和强劲势头。 科创板自设立以来，作为中国资本市场服务科技创新和实体经济发展的重要平台 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 886 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, down 39.67% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 416 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14 million yuan, down about 41.9% year-on-year [8][3]. - The retail channel is contributing to revenue growth, while the competitive environment in the catering sector remains challenging. Direct sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while distribution channel revenue decreased by 6.4% year-on-year. The growth in direct sales is primarily driven by new retail channel clients, particularly in the bakery segment [8][2]. - The company is focusing on stabilizing its core catering partnerships and expanding into new retail channels, including collaborations with major retailers like Walmart and Hema. The strategy includes product customization and enhancing distributor capabilities to improve channel quality and profitability [10][12]. Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 1.88 billion, 1.97 billion, and 2.10 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.9%, and 6.6%. The net profit forecasts have also been revised down to 80 million, 90 million, and 90 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in 2025 [3][14]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 22.7%, influenced by a higher sales proportion of lower-margin products. The company anticipates improved efficiency in the second half of the year [10][2]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 37.3, 33.3, and 31.0 times respectively [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][12] Core Views - The company is gradually recovering after destocking, with the effects of acquisitions becoming evident. In the first half of 2025, total revenue was 1.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.24%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 23.01% [1][7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant recovery, with total revenue reaching 749 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.93%, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 62.72% to 115 million yuan [1][7] - The company is benefiting from the integration of new subsidiaries, with online sales showing high growth, particularly in the second quarter, where online revenue increased by 66.7% [2][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.391 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, down 23.01% [1][7] - The second quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with total revenue of 749 million yuan, up 21.93% year-on-year, and net profit of 115 million yuan, up 62.72% [1][7] Revenue Channels - The company reported offline and online channel revenues of 540 million yuan and 200 million yuan respectively in the second quarter of 2025, with year-on-year increases of 9.5% and 66.7% [2][9] - The core categories, such as hot pot and recipe seasonings, saw revenue increases of 29.0% and 17.8% respectively in the second quarter [1][9] Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 37.0%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [2][9] - The selling and administrative expense ratios were reduced to 10.0% and 6.0%, respectively, indicating improved efficiency in a competitive environment [2][9] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting total revenues of 3.654 billion yuan, 3.960 billion yuan, and 4.269 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.1%, 8.4%, and 7.8% respectively [3][12] - The expected net profits for the same period are 680 million yuan, 739 million yuan, and 796 million yuan, with growth rates of 8.8%, 8.7%, and 7.7% [3][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][38]. Core Viewpoints - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 2.051 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 146.97% [10]. - The significant growth in performance is primarily driven by the strong performance of the refrigerant business, with the average price of refrigerant products increasing by 61.88% year-on-year to 39,400 yuan per ton [10][11]. - The company benefits from a global leading production quota advantage in the context of the third-generation refrigerant quota system, which has transformed the industry supply structure from excess competition to supply constraints [10][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.97% [10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 7.531 billion yuan, up 13.93% year-on-year and 29.84% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.242 billion yuan, up 137.07% year-on-year and 53.56% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Industry Overview - Refrigerants are essential consumer products, increasingly distinguished from traditional chemical raw materials, and are characterized by low cost share in downstream applications, convenient delivery, and high value [2][23]. - The supply side of the refrigerant industry is undergoing optimization, with increasing industry concentration and a shift towards a global "franchise" production and sales model [2][23]. - China holds over 80% of the global quota for third-generation refrigerants, benefiting from structural reforms in supply and high concentration of quotas among leading enterprises [2][23]. Business Segments - The non-refrigerant business faces intense competition, with fluoropolymer prices showing a slight recovery [3][32]. - The company sold 22,900 tons of fluoropolymers in the first half of 2025, with a second-quarter average selling price of 38,446 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [3][32]. Growth Opportunities - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is rapidly increasing due to the rise in server power density driven by AI technology, positioning the company favorably in the liquid cooling market [4][37]. - The company has proactively developed fluorinated liquid products and has initiated a project to produce perfluoropolyether cooling liquids, with the first phase already in production [4][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][22]. Core Views - The company has shown resilient revenue and net profit growth in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 net profit margin faced slight pressure [1][5]. - The company’s product revenue growth outpaced the average, although overall unit prices experienced a slight decline. The revenue from liquor products in H1 2025 was 49.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.26%, with sales volume up 44.59% but unit price down 27.89% [2][5]. - The direct sales model is growing faster than the overall market, with direct sales channel revenue in H1 2025 reaching 21.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year. Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 15.83 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%, but net profit decreased by 7.6% to 4.63 billion yuan [1][5]. Product Performance - The company’s liquor revenue in H1 2025 was 49.12 billion yuan, up 4.26% year-on-year, driven by a 12.7% increase in sales volume for its flagship product, while the unit price decreased by 7.3%. The revenue from other liquor products was 8.12 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, with significant promotional efforts impacting pricing [2][5]. Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing its channel layout, with revenue from the distribution channel in H1 2025 at 27.92 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. The top five distributors contributed 30.06 billion yuan, a significant increase of 181% year-on-year. The direct sales channel revenue was 21.19 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [3][5]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 91.07 billion yuan, 95.70 billion yuan, and 101.28 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 5.1%, and 5.8% respectively. The forecasted net profit for the same period is 31.13 billion yuan, 32.06 billion yuan, and 34.35 billion yuan, with a slight decline in 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 25.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.62 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The growth in revenue is driven by the recovery in packaged water sales, continued high growth in tea beverages, and strong performance in functional drinks and juices [2][8] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 60.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material prices and increased production capacity utilization [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from water, tea, functional drinks, juices, and other beverages grew by 10.7%, 19.7%, 13.6%, 21.3%, and 14.8% respectively, with total revenues reaching 9.44 billion, 10.09 billion, 2.90 billion, 2.56 billion, and 0.63 billion yuan [2][8] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [1][7] Cost and Efficiency - The company experienced a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2.8 percentage points due to lower advertising and promotional expenses, as well as reduced logistics costs [3][9] - The management expense ratio remained stable year-on-year, while other income as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.5 percentage points due to lower interest income from deposits [3][9] Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 50.53 billion, 57.28 billion, and 63.70 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 13.3%, and 11.2% respectively [4][16] - The projected net profits for the same period are 15.16 billion, 17.45 billion, and 19.60 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.0%, 15.1%, and 12.3% [4][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Outperform the Market" [5][10][13] Core Views - The beer business volume is stable with price increases, and cost benefits continue to be realized. In the first half of 2025, the total revenue reached 20.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [1][2][8] - The company benefits from a favorable cost environment and is expected to continue optimizing its product structure, leading to a slight upward adjustment in profit margin forecasts for 2025-2027 [3][10] Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, beer business revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with sales volume up 2.2% and ton price down 0.3%. The main brand's sales volume increased by 3.9%, accounting for 57.3% of total sales [1][8] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a sales volume increase of 1.0%, with revenue per thousand liters up 0.3% [1][8] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 43.7%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs. The net profit margin for the first half and second quarter of 2025 was 19.1% and 21.8%, respectively [2][9] - The company reported an increase in asset disposal income, contributing to improved profitability [2][9] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to slow recovery in market demand, with expected revenues of 32.85 billion, 33.61 billion, and 34.42 billion yuan, respectively [3][10] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 4.75 billion, 5.13 billion, and 5.44 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 7.9%, and 6.1% [3][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][14] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [1][8] - The pre-mixed cocktail business continues to face pressure, while the liquor business has officially launched and is in its early growth phase [1][10] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to slower-than-expected recovery in overall revenue, with new projections of 3.19 billion yuan and 3.49 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the gross margin was stable at 70.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][9] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from marketing expenses in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 67.1%, attributed to better management of accounts receivable [2][9] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 3.19 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan, and 3.80 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 9.3%, and 8.9% [3][10] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 790 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 13.6%, and 14.7% [3][10] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the growth potential of its liquor business, particularly with the recent launch of new products [3][10]