证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 2026年01月24日 2026年01月27日 特步国际（01368.HK） 第四季度主品牌流水持平，索康尼增长超 30% |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：1 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年第四季度及全年营运状况，第四季度特步主品牌线上线下全渠道 零售销售流水同比持平，零售折扣7.0-7.5折；索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长超过30%； 2025 全年，特步主品牌全渠道零售销售流水同比增长低单位数，年末渠道库销比约 4.5 个月；索康尼品牌 线上线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长超 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, sentiment, fund flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trading discounts, and index futures basis rates, but does not detail any quantitative models or factor construction processes[4][5][6] - No formulas or specific quantitative testing results for models or factors are provided in the report[7][8][9]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 2026年01月24日 2026年01月27日 3、投资建议：看好主品牌发挥跑步品类优势销售稳健增长，专业运动品牌快速增长盈利提升。公司聚焦 跑步领域、发挥跑步品类专业优势，四季度在气温和春节延迟的负面因素影响下，主品牌流水保持同比持 平，跑鞋品类及核心系列"两千公里"、"冠军家族"表现亮眼；专业运动品牌索康尼环比提速至 30%以 上增长，全年 30%的增速达成管理层此前指引。我们看好未来主品牌聚焦大众市场获得稳健增速，索康尼 和迈乐分别聚焦"双精英人群"和户外，保持较快增速，并在未来 3-5 年盈利持续提升。我们维持盈利预 测，预计 2025-2027 年净利润分别为 14.0/14.9/16.0 亿元，同比增长 13.2%/5.9%/7.7%。维持 6.1-6.6 港 元的合理估值区间，对应 2026 年 11-12x PE，维持"优于大市"评级。 评论： 第四季度特步主品牌流水同比持平、折扣保持稳定，库存小幅上升；索康尼流水增长 30%，迈乐流水增 长双位数 公司公告：1 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年第四季度及全年营运状况，第四季度特步主品牌线上线下全渠 ...

证券研究报告|2026年01月27日 2026年01月27日 固收+基金四季报分析 增配债底强化防御，业绩分化凸显结构机遇 基金个数：按照国信研究"固收+"基金样本池，截至 2025 年四季度末， 发行在外的固收+基金共有 2,091 只，数量占全基金市场的 15.4%。四季 度共发行了固收+基金 85 只，与去年同期比大幅增加；2025 年全年共发 行了固收+基金 192 只，同比也有明显的增长。 基金规模：四季度末，已披露季报的固收+基金总资产和净资产分别为 32,023 亿元和 28,442 亿元，较上季度大幅增加，平均规模也环比上升。 具体分基金类型来看，混合债券型二级基金存续规模最大为 17,331 亿 元，占比 54.1%。 杠杆率：杠杆率方面，四季度末，整体法口径下固收+基金平均杠杆率为 1.13，较上季度末增加了 0.03。平均法口径下固收+基金平均杠杆率为 1.11，较上季度末增加了 0.01。 基金净值增长率：净增长率方面，2025 年 2025 年四季度固收+基金单季 平均净值增长率为 0.46%，增长率较上季度环比有所回落。细分来看， 2025 年四季度不同类型的固收+基金的净值增长率 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for TCL Electronics [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics has entered a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture for the development, manufacturing, and sales of home entertainment products, which is expected to accelerate global expansion in the television business [4][10]. - The collaboration is anticipated to leverage Sony's advanced technology and brand value alongside TCL's strengths in display technology and global scale, enhancing operational quality and production efficiency for Sony's television products [5][10]. - TCL Electronics is positioned as a leading player in the global television market, with a projected shipment of 29 million units in 2024, ranking second globally, and leading in Mini LED television shipments [9][69]. Company Overview - TCL Electronics is a major player in the television industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes display technology, internet services, and innovative marketing across various product categories [5][9]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, reaching HKD 99.3 billion, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 32.7% to HKD 1.8 billion [5][21]. - In 2024, over 60% of TCL's revenue is expected to come from television sales, with overseas markets contributing 58% of total revenue [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The global television market is stabilizing, but there are opportunities for growth through product upgrades such as larger screens and Mini LED technology, which are expected to drive up average selling prices [6][30]. - TCL and Hisense have significantly increased their market share in the global television market, with the combined market share of the top four brands rising from 44.5% in 2018 to 56.2% in 2024 [45][48]. - TCL's Mini LED technology has positioned it as a leader in the segment, with a global market share of 28.8% in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [69]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for TCL Electronics from 2025 to 2027 are projected at HKD 112.5 billion, HKD 126.5 billion, and HKD 138.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.3%, 12.5%, and 9.2% respectively [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach HKD 24.1 billion, HKD 28.2 billion, and HKD 32.5 billion over the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 37.2%, 16.8%, and 15.3% [8][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Outperform the Market" (first coverage) [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics has entered into a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture for the development, manufacturing, and sales of home entertainment products, which is expected to accelerate the global expansion of both companies' television businesses [4][5][10]. - The joint venture will leverage Sony's advanced technology and brand value in the audio-visual field, combined with TCL's strengths in display technology, global scale, and efficient manufacturing, to optimize production costs and enhance operational quality [5][10]. - TCL Electronics is positioned as a leading player in the global television market, with a projected shipment of 29 million TVs in 2024, ranking second globally, and leading in Mini LED TV shipments [9][10]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, reaching HKD 99.3 billion, with a net profit CAGR of 32.7% to HKD 1.8 billion [5][18]. - The global television market is entering a period of product iteration, with TCL and Hisense gaining market share in key regions, supported by their competitive product offerings and marketing strategies [6][45]. Summary by Sections Joint Venture with Sony - TCL Electronics and Sony signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to form a joint venture, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [4]. - The joint venture aims to enhance both companies' television and home audio businesses globally, leveraging their respective strengths [10]. Market Position and Growth - TCL Electronics is the leading television manufacturer in China, with a significant presence in overseas markets, where 58% of its revenue is generated [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with revenue projections of HKD 112.5 billion, HKD 126.5 billion, and HKD 138.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.3%, 12.5%, and 9.2% respectively [8]. Technological Advancements - TCL is a leader in Mini LED technology, with a global shipment of 1.7 million Mini LED TVs in 2024, achieving a market share of 28.8% [7][69]. - The company is continuously investing in R&D to enhance its product offerings, including the upcoming SQD-Mini LED technology, which aims to achieve high color gamut and brightness [7][69]. Financial Performance - TCL Electronics' net profit is projected to reach HKD 2.41 billion, HKD 2.82 billion, and HKD 3.25 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 37.2%, 16.8%, and 15.3% [8][21]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize, with a forecasted improvement in profitability driven by operational efficiencies and market expansion [21][92].

Group 1: Hotel Industry Insights - The hotel industry is entering a new phase characterized by non-linear growth among leading players, driven by expectations of cyclical turning points and capital consolidation, with a long-term focus on scale and efficiency [17][18] - The valuation of hotels follows a three-dimensional framework: macro supply-demand mismatches determine valuation turning points, structural upgrades amplify volatility, and individual company cycles provide alpha opportunities [17] - The current cycle's bottom is marked by increased differentiation within the industry, with leading hotels expected to see RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) recover as supply stabilizes and demand rebounds, particularly in leisure travel [17][18] Group 2: Social Services Sector - The social services sector has seen a 1.52% increase during the reporting period, outperforming the broader market by 2.71 percentage points, with notable stocks including Tongdao Liepin and Keri International [19][20] - The sector is actively responding to the silver economy, with policies promoting the development of elderly care services and companies like New Oriental launching local interest courses for retirees [21] - The Spring Festival is expected to drive significant travel demand, with predictions of approximately 95 million air passengers during the holiday period, indicating a strong recovery in travel-related services [21] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector has experienced a decline of 1.37%, with A-share food and beverage indices falling by 1.57%, while H-share indices showed a slight increase [26] - The sector is characterized by differentiated performance, with alcoholic beverages, particularly baijiu, showing stable prices and a focus on demand recovery during the Spring Festival [27] - Recommendations include leading companies in various categories, such as Moutai for baijiu, Yili for dairy, and Nongfu Spring for beverages, highlighting their strong growth potential and market positioning [27][28] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a robust outflow of innovative drugs and a recovery in the CXO sector, driven by favorable clinical data and supportive policies [33][34] - The domestic supply-demand landscape remains stable, with a focus on innovative drug forms and technologies such as AI in healthcare and brain-machine interfaces, which are expected to see significant growth [35] - Investment recommendations include companies with strong competitive advantages in innovation and cost control, such as Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a 0.39% decline in the biopharmaceutical sector compared to a 1.17% increase in the overall A-share market [32] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51x, which is at the 84.35 percentile of the historical valuation over the past five years [32][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market increased by 1.17%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.62%. The biopharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 0.39% [32] - Among sub-sectors, chemical pharmaceuticals fell by 1.11%, while medical services dropped by 2.17%. Conversely, medical commercial and traditional Chinese medicine sectors saw increases of 4.26% and 0.89%, respectively [32] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds reached 358.4 billion, a decrease of 9.0% from the previous quarter [11] - The proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in all funds was 7.97%, down by 1.71 percentage points [16] - The largest sub-sectors by holdings were chemical preparations (37.5%) and other biological products (20.8%) [19] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Major companies such as Mindray Medical (237 billion market cap, outperform rating), WuXi AppTec (293.6 billion market cap, outperform rating), and Aier Eye Hospital (105.4 billion market cap, outperform rating) are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts [4] - The report lists several companies with outperform ratings, including New Industry, Huatai Medical, and others, with projected earnings growth over the next few years [4] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the CXO sector and recommends focusing on investment opportunities within this area due to its competitive advantages [41] - It also suggests continued recommendations for innovative drugs and the associated industry chain, with a specific investment portfolio for January 2026 including companies like Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec [42][43]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly focusing on the overseas expansion of innovative drugs and the adoption of new technologies [1][4]. - The investment rating for the sector is maintained at "outperform the market" [2]. Group 1: Market Overview and Trends - The overseas market for innovative drugs and the CXO industry is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025, driven by continuous business development (BD) activities, strong clinical data, and supportive policies [4]. - The domestic supply and demand remain stable, with a shift in payment systems favoring innovation. National health expenditure increased by 4.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a recovery after two years of decline [4]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in new drug forms such as dual antibodies and small nucleic acid drugs, as well as innovations in AI healthcare and brain-machine interfaces [4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with global competitiveness and differentiated innovation capabilities, as well as domestic CXO leaders with high barriers in cost control, technology accumulation, and production capacity [4]. - Recommended stocks include Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, Kelaiying, Aier Eye Hospital, and several others, with specific mention of H-shares like Kelun-Bio and CanSino Biologics [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The report provides a detailed strategy portfolio for 2026, listing companies along with their projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector's overall performance in 2025 was strong, with significant gains in sub-sectors such as medical services and chemical pharmaceuticals, driven by BD collaborations and clinical data releases [12][23]. Group 4: Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds decreased by 9.0%, with a notable shift where passive funds surpassed active funds for the first time since 2019 [25][32]. - The report indicates a decline in the proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in both active and non-pharmaceutical funds, with a concentration in chemical preparations and other biological products [32][40].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in the third week of January, there was a net outflow of funds totaling 170.5 billion yuan, compared to an inflow of 4.9 billion yuan in the previous week [1][7] - Short-term sentiment indicators are at a high level since 2005, while long-term sentiment indicators are at a mid-low level since 2005 [1][11] - From an industry perspective, the highest transaction volume share in the past week was in the semiconductor (100%), electronics (99%), and defense industries (99%) [2][13] Group 2 - In the second week of January, the financing balance decreased by 8.3 billion yuan, public fund issuance increased by 39.3 billion yuan, ETF net redemptions were 162.3 billion yuan, and northbound capital estimated net outflow was 9.3 billion yuan [1][7] - The highest financing transaction share was in the machinery equipment (89%), electric power equipment (74%), and textile and apparel (79%) industries, while the lowest was in banking (12%), oil and petrochemicals (17%), and real estate (21%) [2][13]