Core Insights - The report indicates a policy easing combined with structural interest rate cuts, predicting a decline in market interest rates in January [4][52][77] Group 1: Overseas Monetary Market Indicators - The expectation for interest rate cuts in overseas markets has weakened, with short-term US Treasury rates rebounding to around 3.7% [6] - The Federal Funds rate and SOFR rates have remained stable since December [6] Group 2: Domestic Monetary Market Indicators - Price indicators show that the interbank and exchange repo rates generally increased in December, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changing by -7BP, 14BP, 7BP, and 14BP respectively [11][19] - Volume indicators reveal that the overnight transaction volume in both interbank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month, although the proportion slightly declined [34] - The excess reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.6% for December and 1.1% for January [4][42] Group 3: January Funding Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance, combined with the seasonal tendency for liquidity to ease after the year-end, suggests a decline in market interest rates in January [4][52] - The central bank is expected to net withdraw liquidity in January, with a slight decrease in the excess reserve ratio anticipated [72] Group 4: Short-term Bond Yield Changes - In December, the yields on short-term bonds showed mixed trends, with 1-year government bonds and 1-year policy bank bonds changing by -3BP and -2BP respectively [25] - The yield spread between 1-year AAA short-term financing bonds and government bonds slightly widened by 6BP [25] Group 5: Money Market Fund Returns - The 7-day annualized yield for the Yu'ebao fund was 1.02% in December, with the average yield for the top ten money market funds showing a slight increase [28] Group 6: Seasonal Trends in Monetary Indicators - December saw a significant reduction in fiscal deposits, with a decrease of 13,845 billion yuan, while January is expected to see a seasonal increase in fiscal deposits of around 4,000 billion yuan [59] - The M0 increased by 3,892 billion yuan in December, with an expected increase of 7,000 billion yuan in January due to cash demand ahead of the Spring Festival [53]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, using a 250-day high distance metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of January 16, 2026, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.52%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.60%, CSI 300 1.23%, CSI 500 0.20%, CSI 1000 1.49%, CSI 2000 1.77%, ChiNext Index 0.81%, and STAR 50 Index 1.63%[12][13][15] - The report identifies 1204 stocks that reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals industries[19] - The highest proportions of new high stocks are in the defense, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemical industries[19] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability[23][26] - The screening criteria for stable new high stocks include: at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months, top 20% in 250-day price change, and top 50% in price path smoothness and new high continuity metrics[26] - This week's stable new high stocks include 50 stocks such as Asia Integration, Yuanjie Technology, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with the highest numbers in the cyclical and technology sectors[27][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [2] Core Insights - AI is reshaping user entry forms and the distribution of internet traffic, leading to a revolution in the underlying distribution of industry chain value [4] - The transition from "productivity" to "monetization" in AI applications is expected to accelerate, with 2026 being a critical turning point [5] - The rise of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) signifies a shift from traditional SEO to a model that prioritizes data structure and authority, impacting how content is valued and distributed [4][5] Summary by Sections AI Reshaping Entry Forms - AI is transforming user interaction from keyword-based searches to natural language queries, significantly shortening the information retrieval process [4][14] - The traditional search engine era is ending, giving way to a new era characterized by AI-driven search capabilities [4][14] Commercial Monetization Acceleration - By 2026, the GEO market is projected to reach $24 billion globally, with the domestic market expected to hit 11.1 billion yuan, indicating exponential growth [5][52] - Chinese consumers exhibit a high trust level in AI applications at 80%, compared to 35% in the U.S. and 40% in Europe, particularly in personalized shopping recommendations [5][41][42] Content Industry Upgrade - AI-generated content (AIGC) is not only reducing costs but also creating new supply, with AI-driven video production becoming increasingly viable [6][58] - The emergence of AI anime short dramas is expected to open new market opportunities, particularly among younger male audiences [6][70] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the GEO direction, particularly in marketing services and high-quality content, while also considering potential rebounds in content sectors like film and gaming [7][52] - Companies that can optimize AI data and content will likely benefit from the shift towards GEO, with a new emphasis on brand authority and content quality [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [2] Core Insights - AI is reshaping user entry points and the distribution of internet traffic, marking a transition from traditional search engines to generative search engine optimization (GEO) [4] - The commercialization of AI in China is accelerating, with a significant trust level of 80% among consumers, which is higher than in the US (35%) and Europe (40%) [5] - The content industry is evolving with AI-generated content (AIGC) not only reducing costs but also creating new supply [6] Summary by Sections AI Reshaping Entry Points - AI is transforming user interaction from keyword-based searches to natural language queries, significantly shortening the information retrieval process [4][11] - The shift to AI-driven search is leading to a "zero-click" trend, where users can satisfy their information needs without navigating away from the AI interface [4] Commercialization Acceleration - By 2026, the global GEO market is projected to reach $24 billion, with the domestic market expected to hit 11.1 billion yuan, indicating exponential growth [5][52] - Marketing service providers are evolving to leverage AI technologies, focusing on optimizing data structures and enhancing brand visibility in AI models [5] Content Industry Upgrade - AI is enabling full-process production in video content, significantly lowering production costs and expanding audience demographics [6] - The gaming industry is also seeing AI applications enhance user engagement through intelligent non-player characters (NPCs) [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the GEO direction, particularly in marketing services and high-quality content, while also considering potential rebounds in content sectors like film and gaming [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Major international companies are focusing on AI application deployment, with innovations in vertical scenarios such as healthcare and e-commerce. OpenAI's ChatGPT Health and Anthropic's Claude for Healthcare are examples of AI solutions targeting compliance and professional services in healthcare [2]. - Domestic companies are also advancing AI applications, with Alibaba's "Ant Aifu" upgrading health services and ByteDance's Volcano Engine becoming the exclusive AI cloud partner for the Spring Festival Gala. The stock prices of newly listed AI companies like Zhiyu and Minimax have surged significantly post-IPO [2]. Summary by Sections 01 International Companies' AI Application Deployment - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, which has received over 230 million health-related inquiries weekly, focusing on data integration and compliance [9]. - Anthropic introduced Claude for Healthcare, covering clinical services and personal health management while adhering to strict data security standards [14]. 02 Domestic Companies' AI Application Deployment - Alibaba's "Ant Aifu" aims to become the leading health app in China, integrating with major health devices and offering various health services [32]. - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is set to enhance the Spring Festival Gala experience through AI, marking its third collaboration with the event [37]. - Deepseek is expected to release its V4 flagship model, which promises significant advancements in AI capabilities [39]. 03 Industry Chain Overview - The report outlines various application directions and key companies in sectors such as healthcare, e-commerce, and gaming, highlighting potential investment opportunities [49].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月16日 六福集团（00590.HK） 同店进一步加速增长，海外拓展顺利 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 商贸零售·专业连锁Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | 证券分析师： | 柳旭 | 0755-81981311 | liuxu1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522120001 | | 证券分析师： | 孙乔容若 | 021-60375463 | sunqiaorongruo@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090004 | 事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年 10-12 月经营数据，整体零售值同比增长 26%，同店销售增长 15%，均环比上 一季度实现加速。 国信零售观点：1）分区域看，全球市场均表现较好：中国香港同店销售增长 15%，中国澳门增长 22%，海 外增长 11%；中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the outdoor apparel and footwear industry [1] Core Insights - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry has been experiencing rapid growth since 2021, with a projected CAGR of 25.3% for outdoor apparel and 18.4% for outdoor footwear from 2021 to 2025. The expected year-on-year growth rates for 2025 are 24.5% and 16.3%, respectively [2][28] - The ISPO Beijing 2026 exhibition highlighted a shift in product categories, with an increase in skiing brands and products, while camping brands saw a decline. The event showcased a growing trend in wool materials within outdoor apparel, indicating a significant increase in the penetration of wool-related products [2][13][21] - Online sales of outdoor footwear are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 40% in 2025, while the growth of outdoor apparel has slowed to low single digits post-Q2 2025. Specific categories like down jackets and quick-dry clothing are showing strong growth, with some quarterly year-on-year increases nearing 100% [2][36] Summary by Sections ISPO Beijing 2026 Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition featured a notable increase in skiing-related brands and products, while camping brands were consolidated into a climbing and hiking area [13] - The brand "Pelliot" emphasized its commitment to professional products and marketing, showcasing a range of footwear and specialized gear for mountaineering and skiing [20] Outdoor Brand Sentiment Tracking - The outdoor footwear and apparel industry continues to grow, with outdoor apparel experiencing a CAGR of 25.3% and outdoor footwear at 18.4% from 2021 to 2025. The penetration rates for outdoor apparel and functional sportswear have increased significantly [28][29] - Online platforms are seeing a faster growth rate for outdoor footwear compared to apparel, with a notable increase in competition among brands. Leading brands like "Kailas" and "Pelliot" are maintaining high growth rates, while others like "The North Face" are experiencing slower growth [36][37] Upstream Sentiment Tracking - Wool materials are gaining traction in the outdoor apparel sector, with sales of wool and cashmere products achieving over 30% year-on-year growth in most quarters since Q4 2021. The penetration of wool products in outdoor apparel is expected to rise significantly, providing a positive outlook for upstream suppliers [21][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's retail performance showed a low single-digit decline in sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat. The total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in sales compared to the third quarter, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels. The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, and new product launches were frequent, including the opening of flagship stores and outdoor stores [2][3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from effective cost control and government subsidies, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan respectively [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For the fourth quarter, the company's sales point performance (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year. The offline channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce remained stable. The total number of sales points decreased by 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the third quarter. Retail and wholesale channels experienced low and mid-single-digit declines respectively, while e-commerce remained flat. The discount levels deepened slightly, with inventory turnover improving to 4-5 months [4][5] New Products and Store Formats - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for wet weather. Additionally, the company opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship "Dragon Store" in Beijing, targeting the middle-class consumer segment [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% [11][12]

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-15 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4112.60 | 14306.72 | 4751.42 | 15440.35 | 4193.07 | 1493.94 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.32 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.39 | -0.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11759.15 | 17295.81 | 6740.58 | 5966.58 | 8412.62 | 958.46 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ($\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观快评:12 月金融数据解读-企业融资超季节性回暖 策略专题:26 年 A 股向上的五大微观动能——2026 年牛市展望系列 2 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月 ...

核心观点 锚定经济结构性矛盾，精准落地结构性货币政策工具。此次结构性货币政策利率调整，既是对中央经济工 作会议精神的快速响应，也是破解我国当前经济结构性矛盾的关键抓手。结构性货币政策多年来持续加码， 以抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率调整为例，自 2022 年以来其利率已累计调降过 3 次，从最初的 2.80%逐步降 至 2025 年 5 月的 2.00%，此次再次调降至 1.75%。这一持续调降的背后，是政策对重点领域支持的连贯性， 以增强市场预期稳定性。这既畅通了货币政策传导机制，缓解了重点领域与薄弱环节的融资压力，又从根 本上防范总量宽松可能带来的风险积累，充分彰显结构性货币政策在平衡稳增长与调结构中的核心作用。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月15日 银行业点评 精准滴灌，稳定银行息差预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  银行 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | ...