Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market has rebounded, with the technology sector leading the gains, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.6% and the Hang Seng Composite Index also increasing by 3.6% [1] - The valuation levels have returned to a relatively high level, with the Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratio increasing by 3.4% to 12.1x [2] - Earnings expectations have been rapidly revised upwards, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS increasing by 0.5% [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 3.6%, with large-cap stocks outperforming mid and small-cap stocks [1] - The Hang Seng Internet Index rose by 5.9%, while the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 0.9% [1] Valuation Levels - The forward P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is now at 12.1x, reflecting a 3.4% increase [2] - The Hang Seng Internet Index saw a significant valuation increase of 5.9%, reaching 19.0x [2] Earnings Expectations - The EPS for the Hang Seng Index has been revised upwards by 0.5% [3] - The largest upward revision in EPS was seen in the Hang Seng Consumer Index, which increased by 1.8% [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 重庆银行（601963.SH）2025 年三季报点评 优于大市 扩表提速，业绩实现高增 业绩增速提升，营收和归母净利润增速均略超 10%。2025 年前三季度实现营 收 117.4 亿元，同比增长 10.40%，实现归母净利润 48.8 亿元，同比增长 10.42%。其中营收和归母净利润单季度同比分别增长了 17.38%和 20.54%， 业绩增速明显提升。 2025 年公司规模扩张提速，净息差企稳改善。2025 年前三季度净利息收入 同比增长 15.2%%，较上半年增速提升了 3.0 个百分点，同时受益于规模扩表 提速和净息差企稳改善。2025 年 9 月末，资产总额 1.02 万亿元，贷款总额 （不含应计利息）5.18 万亿元，存款总额 5.54 万亿元，较年初分别增长了 19.4%、18.3%和 16.9%。其中，对公贷款和零售贷款较年初分别增长了 23.0% 和 1.7%，近几年公司新增信贷主要投向了征信类相关领域。 负债端成本降幅明显，净息差企稳改善。按照期初期末平均余额测算的前三 季度年化净息差为 1.32%，较上半年提升 3bps，同比下降 4bps，同 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 2.4% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 3.9%[1] - Large-cap growth stocks (Russell 1000 Growth) outperformed with a gain of 3.2%, compared to small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) at +2.5%[1] - The technology hardware and equipment sector led the gains with an increase of 3.9%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was +$65.6 billion this week, down from +$91.7 billion last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw the highest inflow at +$22.9 billion, while media and entertainment experienced the largest outflow at -$13.2 billion[2] Earnings Forecast - The forward 12-month EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.4% this week, consistent with the previous week[3] - The automotive sector saw a significant upward revision of 9.0% in earnings expectations, while durable goods and apparel experienced a downward revision of -0.5%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][27] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 11.589 billion yuan, up 58.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 9.097 billion yuan, up 50.6% year-on-year [1][4] - The company's strong performance is attributed to the recovery in the capital market and increased trading activity, particularly in securities brokerage and margin financing [1][2] - The company has a leading position in fund distribution, with a focus on equity funds, and has seen growth in its fund distribution scale [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 115.89 billion yuan and a net profit of 90.97 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.74%, an increase of 2.60 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has continued to grow, contributing to the company's sustained high revenue growth [1][4] Market Position - The company maintained an increasing market share in brokerage and margin financing, with a brokerage trading volume of 16.03 trillion yuan and a market share of 4.14% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company's net commission income reached 6.640 billion yuan, up 86.8% year-on-year, and net interest income was 2.405 billion yuan, up 59.7% year-on-year [2] Fund Distribution - The company has a leading position in fund distribution, with an equity fund holding scale of 383.8 billion yuan, accounting for 56.8% of non-monetary funds [3] - The total fund distribution for the first half of 2025 was 1.0572 trillion yuan, with non-monetary funds accounting for 626 billion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with revenue projections of 15.224 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.2% [5][24] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 36.80x, which is near the 59.2% percentile over the past five years, indicating a strong valuation relative to historical performance [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33][38] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 48.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.58 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year [8][33] - The company has a strong order backlog, with external orders reaching 49.9 GW, a 21% increase year-on-year, indicating robust demand for its wind turbines [2][19] - The international business is expanding, with operations in 47 countries across six continents and a total installed capacity of 11.2 GW outside of China [2][27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 19.61 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 171% year-on-year [8][9] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 14.4%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.9%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] Sales and Orders - The company sold 7.8 GW of wind turbines in Q3 2025, a 71% increase year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 18.4 GW for the first three quarters, up 90% year-on-year [2][17] - The company added 23.2 GW of new external orders in the first three quarters, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a total backlog of 52.5 GW, including internal orders [19][27] International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing an internationalization strategy, with a 91% year-on-year increase in new installation capacity in international markets, totaling 2.4 GW in the first three quarters [2][27] - The installed capacity in Asia (excluding China) surpassed 3 GW, while South America and Oceania each exceeded 2 GW [2][27] Profitability Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 2.98 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.96 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.4%, 23.4%, and 34.8% [33][34] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 22.4, 18.2, and 13.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 55.815 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.159 billion yuan, up 37.9% year-on-year [1] - The growth in investment income and the expansion of brokerage business due to increased market activity are the main drivers of performance [1] - The company has adjusted key assumptions for brokerage business growth and investment yield, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 10.4%, 8.0%, and 8.0% respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue growth rates by segment were: brokerage +52.9%, investment banking +30.9%, asset management +16.4%, interest income -16.9%, and investment +45.9% [1] - The annualized investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.64%, continuing an upward trend [2] - The company's financial investment assets reached 932 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] Investment Banking Business Summary - The IPO underwriting scale in the A-share market has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery, with 83 IPOs underwritten and a total underwriting amount of 81.01 billion yuan, exceeding the total for 2024 [3] - The refinancing underwriting scale has significantly increased, with 167 cases and an underwriting amount of 856.5 billion yuan, nearly four times the total for 2024 [3] Wealth and Asset Management Summary - The A-share market's trading sentiment has significantly recovered since Q4 2024, with total stock fund trading volume exceeding 362 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, more than doubling year-on-year [4] - The company has over 16.5 million wealth management clients and its asset management AUM reached 1.5562 trillion yuan by the end of H1 2025, showing slight growth year-on-year [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned in a key area of national strategy, benefiting from continuous improvement in its fundamentals [1]. - The company has effectively cleared its existing non-performing loans and shifted its lending focus primarily towards government-related sectors, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of loans in these areas [2]. - The net interest margin has shown signs of improvement, contributing to enhanced profitability, with projections indicating continued growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years [3][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Bank, established in 1996, has evolved into a significant player in the banking sector, with total assets reaching 983.4 billion yuan and total loans amounting to 498.6 billion yuan as of June 2025 [7]. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is projected to grow from 13.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.77 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.29 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8% [4]. - The bank's return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) are projected to stabilize around 0.59% and 10.7% respectively by 2027 [4]. Loan and Asset Quality - As of June 2025, the bank's loan portfolio is heavily weighted towards government-related sectors, with 54.5% of loans allocated to these areas, indicating a strategic shift in lending practices [2][36]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 1.17%, with a provision coverage ratio of 248.3%, reflecting a strong asset quality position compared to peers in the region [2][49]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The bank is well-positioned to benefit from the economic growth in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, which is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [1][14]. - The bank's loan market share in Chongqing is 76.4%, with significant presence in neighboring provinces, indicating a robust regional footprint [12]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The estimated fair price range for the company's stock in 2026 is between 12.3 and 14.4 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 19.3% to 39.7% from the current price of 10.3 yuan [68].

========= - The Guosen JinGong Index Enhanced Portfolio is constructed using a multi-factor stock selection approach, targeting to outperform benchmarks such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 indices[10][11] - The construction process of the Guosen JinGong Index Enhanced Portfolio includes three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization[11] - The performance of the Guosen JinGong Index Enhanced Portfolio for the week is as follows: CSI 300 Index Enhanced Portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.53%, CSI 500 Index Enhanced Portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.45%, CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.34%, and CSI A500 Index Enhanced Portfolio achieved an excess return of -0.46%[4][13] Factor Construction and Performance - Factors are monitored across different stock selection spaces, including the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 indices, as well as the Public Fund Heavyweight Index[10][14] - The factor library includes over 30 common factors categorized into valuation, reversal, growth, profitability, liquidity, corporate governance, and analyst dimensions[15][16] Factor Performance in Different Indices - **CSI 300 Index**: Factors such as single-quarter ROA, single-quarter ROE, and one-year momentum performed well in the past week, while three-month reversal, one-month volatility, and three-month turnover performed poorly[1][18] - **CSI 500 Index**: Factors such as SPTTM, executive compensation, and three-month institutional coverage performed well in the past week, while EPTTM one-year percentile, illiquidity shock, and three-month reversal performed poorly[1][19] - **CSI 1000 Index**: Factors such as three-month earnings revisions, standardized unexpected revenue, and standardized unexpected earnings performed well in the past week, while three-month reversal, BP, and expected EPTTM performed poorly[1][21] - **CSI A500 Index**: Factors such as one-year momentum, single-quarter revenue growth, and DELTAROA performed well in the past week, while three-month reversal, one-month volatility, and EPTTM one-year percentile performed poorly[1][23] - **Public Fund Heavyweight Index**: Factors such as one-year momentum, standardized unexpected revenue, and three-month earnings revisions performed well in the past week, while three-month reversal, one-month volatility, and three-month volatility performed poorly[1][25] Public Fund Index Enhanced Product Performance - **CSI 300 Index Enhanced Products**: In the past week, the highest excess return was 2.02%, the lowest was -1.13%, and the median was 0.06%. In the past month, the highest excess return was 1.87%, the lowest was -1.02%, and the median was 0.02%[2][31] - **CSI 500 Index Enhanced Products**: In the past week, the highest excess return was 1.24%, the lowest was -1.61%, and the median was 0.19%. In the past month, the highest excess return was 2.66%, the lowest was -1.07%, and the median was 1.33%[2][34] - **CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Products**: In the past week, the highest excess return was 1.52%, the lowest was -1.23%, and the median was 0.45%. In the past month, the highest excess return was 3.71%, the lowest was -0.71%, and the median was 1.90%[2][36] - **CSI A500 Index Enhanced Products**: In the past week, the highest excess return was 0.84%, the lowest was -0.53%, and the median was 0.03%. In the past month, the highest excess return was 2.16%, the lowest was -1.28%, and the median was 0.53%[3][39] Factor MFE Portfolio Construction - The MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) portfolio is constructed using an optimization model to maximize single-factor exposure while controlling for various constraints such as style exposure, industry exposure, individual stock weight deviation, component stock weight proportion, and individual stock weight limits[40][41] - The optimization model's objective function is to maximize single-factor exposure, with constraints including style factor deviation, industry deviation, individual stock deviation, component stock weight limits, and no short selling[41][42] - The construction process involves setting constraints, constructing MFE portfolios at the end of each month, and calculating historical returns and risk statistics for the MFE portfolios[44] =========

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Shift from benchmarking broad-based indices to benchmarking active equity funds, leveraging quantitative methods to enhance fund holdings for optimal selection [3][19][51] **Construction Process**: 1. Benchmark against active equity fund median returns, represented by the mixed equity fund index (885001.WI) [19][51] 2. Select funds based on performance layering, neutralizing return factors to mitigate style concentration risks [51] 3. Optimize portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks, industries, and styles relative to selected fund holdings [52] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates stability and consistent outperformance against active equity fund medians [51][52] - **Model Name**: Outperformance Selection Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with significant pre- and post-event excess returns triggered by outperformance events [4][57] **Construction Process**: 1. Filter stocks based on research report titles indicating outperformance and analysts' upward revisions of net profit [4][57] 2. Conduct dual-layer selection using fundamental and technical analysis to identify stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance [4][57] **Evaluation**: Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [57] - **Model Name**: Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Optimize the brokerage golden stock pool to achieve stable outperformance against the mixed equity fund index [5][62] **Construction Process**: 1. Use the brokerage golden stock pool as the stock selection space and benchmark [5][33] 2. Optimize portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks, industries, and styles relative to the golden stock pool [33][62] **Evaluation**: Reflects strong research capabilities and consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [62][63] - **Model Name**: Growth Stability Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Prioritize stocks with strong excess returns during the golden period of growth stock performance [6][67] **Construction Process**: 1. Segment growth stock pools based on the number of days until the scheduled financial report disclosure date, prioritizing stocks closer to the disclosure date [6][67] 2. Use multi-factor scoring to select high-quality stocks when sample size is large [6][67] 3. Introduce mechanisms such as weak balance, transition, buffering, and risk avoidance to reduce turnover and mitigate risks [67] **Evaluation**: Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [67][68] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio** - Annualized return: 20.31% (2012.1.4-2025.6.30) - Excess return vs. mixed equity fund index: 11.83% - Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [53][56] - **Outperformance Selection Portfolio** - Annualized return: 30.55% (2010.1.4-2025.6.30) - Excess return vs. mixed equity fund index: 24.68% - Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [58][60] - **Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio** - Annualized return: 19.34% (2018.1.2-2025.6.30) - Excess return vs. mixed equity fund index: 14.38% - Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [63][66] - **Growth Stability Portfolio** - Annualized return: 35.51% (2012.1.4-2025.6.30) - Excess return vs. mixed equity fund index: 26.88% - Consistently ranks in the top 30% of active equity funds annually [68][71]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" aims to construct a portfolio by dual-layer screening based on fundamental and technical aspects of stocks recommended by analysts. The portfolio is built using analyst recommendation events such as upward earnings forecast revisions, initial coverage, and unexpected research report titles. Stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance are selected to form the portfolio. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identifies stocks that have reached new highs in the past 20 trading days. The screening criteria include analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs. The calculation for the 250-day new high distance is as follows: $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A new high distance of 0 indicates the latest closing price has reached a new high, while a positive value indicates the degree of fallback from the new high[20][22][23] - The screening process for stable new high stocks involves selecting stocks from the entire Hong Kong stock pool (excluding stocks listed for less than 15 months). Stocks are filtered based on analyst attention (at least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), and price stability. The final selection is based on price path smoothness and the average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and the past 5 days[23][22][20] - The backtesting results for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" show annualized returns of 19.11%, excess returns of 18.48%, and various performance metrics such as IR (1.22), tracking error (14.55%), and maximum drawdown (23.73%). The portfolio demonstrates consistent outperformance across different years, with notable returns in 2020 (66.59% absolute return, 70% excess return) and 2019 (42.85% absolute return, 33.78% excess return)[19][15][17]