1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seasonal increase in cross - year funding demand is expected to drive up market interest rates in December [4][6][9][15][69] 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined. The 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%, and since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10] - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the Eurozone, and the US are 0.5%, 2.15%, and 3.50 - 3.75% respectively [12] Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicator Overview - In November, the central bank maintained a balanced and slightly loose funding environment. The average repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets fluctuated slightly. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively [4][20] - Most short - term bond yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond, 1 - year CDB bond, 1 - year AAA commercial paper, 1 - year AA commercial paper, 1 - year AA - commercial paper, 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit, and 1 - year AA+ inter - bank certificate of deposit changed by - 2BP, - 1BP, - 2BP, - 7BP, - 5BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively [20] - In November, the average DR001 and DR007 increased slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [26] - The average exchange repurchase rates mostly declined. The 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP compared to the previous month [31] - The average inter - bank certificate of deposit rates declined slightly. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate widened slightly [37] - The balance of Yu'E Bao's 7 - day annualized return rate was 1.02%, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline [47] Quantity Indicator Overview - In November, the overnight trading volume and proportion in the exchange market decreased compared to the previous month, while those in the inter - bank market increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 2.00 trillion, accounting for 87.5% [51] - In November, M0 increased seasonally, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. The central bank made a net investment through open - market operations, and the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in November was 1.1% [55] - The year - on - year monthly average of the bond balance to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The year - on - year increase in the inter - bank bond balance to be repurchased was 0.4%, and that in the exchange market was 2% [59] - The volatility index of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month [64] Funding Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: In November, M0 increased seasonally by 189.1 billion, and it is estimated to increase by 350 billion in December [71] - Required deposit reserves: In November, RMB deposits of financial institutions increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion, less than the same period last year. It is expected that deposits will decrease by 1 trillion in December, resulting in a decrease of 62 billion in required deposit reserves [75] - Fiscal deposits: In November, fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion. It is expected that fiscal deposits will decrease by 600 billion in December [78] - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. It is expected that foreign exchange funds will decrease by 50 billion in December [83] - Open - market operations: The central bank is expected to continue net investment to maintain a stable funding environment. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratio in December will be 1.6% [91] Main Conclusion - The seasonal demand for year - end funds is expected to drive up market interest rates in December. The central bank has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, the economic work conference has confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, and the large maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in December will cause seasonal pressure on the funding side [98]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 万华化学（600309.SH） MDI 产品景气回暖，锂电材料、新材料加速放量 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 事件：11 月下旬以来，全球主要聚氨酯企业相继上调 MDI 和 TDI 产品价格，覆盖多个区域市场。公司 12 月初以来分别上调拉丁美洲、中东、非洲、土耳其、东南亚、南亚地区 MDI 或 TDI 价格 200-300 美元/吨， 匈牙利 BC 也宣布对所有 MDI 产品涨价 300 欧元/吨。 国信化工观点： 1）受海外、国内多装置减产影响，MDI 价格上行：截至 12 月 15 日，聚合 MDI 市场价格上涨至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas currency market: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and short - term US Treasury yields declined [4][10]. - Domestic currency market in November: Repo rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changing by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively; most 1 - year short - bond yields declined; exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased; the year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in both markets increased; estimated excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December were 1.1% and 1.6% respectively [4]. - Outlook for December: Seasonal increase in year - end fund demand is expected to drive up market interest rates [4][6][9][15][69]. Summary by Directory Overseas Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the 3 - month US Treasury yield dropped to around 3.6%. Since November, the US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable [10]. Domestic Key Currency Market Indicator Changes Tracking Price Indicators - The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November. Repo rate averages in the inter - bank and exchange markets had small fluctuations. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly averages changed by 4BP, 0BP, 0BP, and - 1BP respectively, reaching 1.43%, 1.42%, 1.50%, and 1.50%. Most 1 - year short - bond yields declined [20]. - In the inter - bank market, the R001 monthly average rose, and the R007 fluctuation range narrowed. The money market weighted average rate fluctuated around the 7 - day reverse repo rate [21]. - DR001 and DR007 monthly averages rose slightly, with 1 - day and 7 - day spreads changing by 1BP and - 1BP respectively [26]. - Exchange repo rate averages mostly declined, and the 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between inter - bank and exchange rates changed by - 4BP and - 1BP respectively [31]. - The 1 - year high - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit (ICD) rate dropped by 3BP, and the low - grade ICD rate dropped by 2BP. The spread between the 1 - year high - grade ICD rate and the 7 - day reverse repo rate widened slightly [37]. - Most 1 - year short - bond interest rate monthly averages declined, and the spread between the 1 - year AAA short - term financing bill and Treasury bond interest rates remained unchanged [42]. - The Yu'E Bao yield was 1.02% in November, and the average return of the top ten money funds continued to decline. The 7 - day average annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds changed by - 3BP and - 1BP respectively [47]. Quantity Indicators - In November, the exchange overnight trading volume and proportion decreased, while the inter - bank trading volume and proportion increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 7.45 trillion, accounting for 88.5%, and the trading volume and proportion of GC001 in the exchange market were 2.00 trillion and 87.5% respectively [51]. - M0 increased seasonally in November, and the excess deposit reserve ratio declined slightly. After comprehensive consideration of five channels, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for November was 1.1% [55]. - The year - on - year monthly average of bond balances to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased. The inter - bank and exchange repo rate volatility indices rose [59][64]. Fund Outlook Five - Channel Forecast - M0: It increased by 189.1 billion in November, and is expected to increase by 350 billion in December [71]. - Required deposit reserves: Financial institution RMB deposits increased seasonally by 1.41 trillion in November, less than the same period last year. With the Spring Festival in February next year, deposits are expected to decrease by 1 trillion in December, leading to a 62 - billion decrease in required deposit reserves [75]. - Fiscal deposits: Fiscal deposits decreased by 46.6 billion in November due to increased year - end government spending and large net government bond financing. They are expected to decrease by 60 billion in December [78]. - Foreign exchange funds: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, causing the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. Foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by 5 billion in December [83]. - Open market operations: The central bank maintained a balanced and loose fund environment in November through open market operations,买断式逆回购, and Treasury bond trading. As of now in December, it has conducted 1.6 trillion in买断式逆回购 operations, achieving a net injection of 200 billion, and is expected to have a net injection of 50 billion for the whole month. After comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio for December is 1.6% [91]. Main Conclusion - Due to the seasonal increase in year - end fund demand, market interest rates are expected to rise in December. The central bank has continued to increase the volume of reverse repo operations. The economic work conference in December confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy for next year. With a large amount of ICDs maturing in December and seasonal behavior of institutions at the end of the year, there is seasonal pressure on the fund market [98].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - November fiscal data shows a decline in fiscal strength, with general public budget revenue turning negative at -0.02% year-on-year, down from 3.2% [8][9] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.8%, with corporate income tax down by 5.2%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profitability [8][9] - Government fund budget revenue also saw a narrowing decline, with land transfer income down by 26.8%, while government fund expenditure turned positive at 2.8% year-on-year [8][9] Group 2: Wind Power Industry Investment Strategy - The wind power industry is expected to experience a boom in 2026, with domestic onshore wind installations projected to reach 120 GW, a 10% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The offshore wind market is anticipated to see new installations between 11-15 GW in 2026, with significant projects commencing in regions like Jiangsu and Guangdong [10][11] - Key players to watch include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Heavy Energy in the onshore segment, and Daikin Heavy Industries and Oriental Cable in the offshore segment [11] Group 3: Huazhu Group Insights - The hotel industry is undergoing a structural adjustment, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, as leisure travel grows steadily while business travel remains low [13][14] - Huazhu's business model emphasizes a strong product lineup and digital management, with a membership base exceeding 300 million, leading to a competitive edge in revenue management [14][15] - The company aims to expand its mid-range and high-end hotel offerings significantly by 2030, with a projected increase in the number of hotels to 18,000 [15] Group 4: Weiteou Company Analysis - Weiteou reported a 24% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters, reaching 1.06 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.84% [16][17] - The company is focusing on domestic market penetration in microelectronics soldering materials, with a market share of approximately 7% in solder paste [18] - Weiteou's dual-platform strategy aims to enhance its product matrix and expand into new materials, with expectations of revenue growth to 1.54 billion yuan by 2027 [19] Group 5: Tencent Holdings Overview - Tencent's overseas cloud and gaming businesses are expected to drive growth, with cloud revenue projected to reach 757 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 32% of total gaming revenue [20][21] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance game development efficiency and user experience, with significant improvements noted in production processes [21][22] - Tencent's strategic investments in overseas gaming studios are beginning to yield results, with a strong focus on replicating successful domestic models in international markets [21]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月18日 一般公共预算收入由正转负，支出降幅收窄。11 月财政收入当月同比-0.02%，前值 3.2%，由正转负。税 收收入 2.8%，较前值下行；非税收入-10.8%，降幅在高基数下显著收窄，可能是地方加大盘活资产力度。 2025 年 11 月财政数据快评 财政力度继续下滑 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 200516 亿元，同比增长 0.8%；其中，全国税收收入 164814 亿元，同比 增长 1.8%；非税收入 35702 亿元，同比下降 ...

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, highlighting that the SSE 50 Index performed well with a 0.23% increase, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59%[6] - The report also notes that the SSE Composite Index performed well among sector indices, with a 0.16% increase, while the SZSE Composite Index fell by 0.70%[6] - The report provides details on the performance of industry indices, noting that the coal, banking, and petrochemical industries performed well with returns of 2.03%, 2.00%, and 1.31% respectively[7] - The report highlights the performance of various thematic concepts, with SPD, parachute, and PVC flooring concepts performing well with returns of 6.76%, 3.81%, and 3.51% respectively[10] - The report provides data on market sentiment, noting that 71 stocks hit the daily limit up and 8 stocks hit the daily limit down at the close of trading on December 18, 2025[14] - The report includes information on market capital flows, noting that the margin trading balance was 2.5 trillion yuan as of December 17, 2025, with a financing balance of 2.4859 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 170 billion yuan[20] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the cash flow ETF Yongying had the highest premium of 0.90%, while the materials ETF had the highest discount of 0.84% on December 17, 2025[24] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount of block trades over the past six months was 2.1 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 6.64%, and the transaction amount on December 17, 2025, was 2.2 billion yuan with a discount rate of 7.59%[27] - The report includes information on the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rate of the SSE 50 stock index futures main contract was 29.32% on December 18, 2025, which was at the 1% percentile over the past year[29] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that Changan Automobile was the most researched stock by institutions in the past week, with 214 institutions conducting research[31] - The report includes data on the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of institutional seats on December 18, 2025, were Xue Ren Group, Tongyu Communications, Zhejiang Shibao, Bona Film Group, Deyi Wenhua, Aerospace Huanyu, Meinian Health, Sanyangma, Haixia Innovation, and Huaren Health[37] - SSE 50 Index, performance: +0.23%[6] - CSI 300 Index, performance: -0.59%[6] - SSE Composite Index, performance: +0.16%[6] - SZSE Composite Index, performance: -0.70%[6] - Coal industry, performance: +2.03%[7] - Banking industry, performance: +2.00%[7] - Petrochemical industry, performance: +1.31%[7] - SPD concept, performance: +6.76%[10] - Parachute concept, performance: +3.81%[10] - PVC flooring concept, performance: +3.51%[10] - Number of stocks hitting daily limit up: 71[14] - Number of stocks hitting daily limit down: 8[14] - Margin trading balance: 2.5 trillion yuan[20] - Financing balance: 2.4859 trillion yuan[20] - Securities lending balance: 170 billion yuan[20] - Cash flow ETF Yongying, premium: 0.90%[24] - Materials ETF, discount: 0.84%[24] - Average daily transaction amount of block trades: 2.1 billion yuan[27] - Discount rate of block trades: 6.64%[27] - Transaction amount on December 17, 2025: 2.2 billion yuan[27] - Discount rate on December 17, 2025: 7.59%[27] - Annualized discount rate of SSE 50 stock index futures main contract: 29.32%[29] - Changan Automobile, number of institutions conducting research: 214[31] - Top ten stocks with highest net inflow of institutional seats: Xue Ren Group, Tongyu Communications, Zhejiang Shibao, Bona Film Group, Deyi Wenhua, Aerospace Huanyu, Meinian Health, Sanyangma, Haixia Innovation, Huaren Health[37]

Core Insights - The wind power industry is expected to experience a synchronous recovery in both domestic and international markets, driven by changes in demand and industry dynamics, creating new investment opportunities [1] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the wind power sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1] Group 1: Industry Review - Since 2021, China's onshore wind power has entered a parity era, with rapid cost reductions achieved through large-scale and technological advancements, leading to continuous installation exceeding expectations [3] - The competition within the main engine segment has significantly compressed the profitability of the industry chain, resulting in a situation where growth in volume does not equate to growth in profit [3] - The price of the onshore wind industry chain has been recovering since the second half of 2024, with profitability expected to improve in 2025 as shipment volumes increase [3][4] Group 2: Onshore Wind Power Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that new onshore installations in China will reach 120 GW, a year-on-year increase of 10%, setting a new historical high [4] - The industry chain prices are expected to have solid support, leading to significant recovery in main engine profits, with component segments showing notable operational leverage [4] - The CAGR for new onshore installations in emerging markets is projected to be 17% from 2024 to 2030, with domestic manufacturers expected to see substantial growth in export profits [4] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Outlook - The report forecasts that new offshore installations in China will rise to a range of 11-15 GW in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% [5] - The national offshore wind project development is expected to commence in 2026, with a total of 70-100 GW of new offshore installations projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The global offshore wind market is anticipated to see steady growth in orders and construction demand, particularly in Europe, where supply constraints for cables and piles are expected [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the main engine segment such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Sany Renewable Energy, while component manufacturers like Delijia and Jinlei Co. are also highlighted [6] - In the offshore wind sector, companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Oriental Cable are recommended for investment consideration [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [5] Core Insights - The company has achieved a revenue growth of 24.00% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.84% year-on-year [1] - The company is a leader in microelectronic welding materials, with a market share of approximately 7% in the solder paste sector, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [2] - The company is expanding its business globally, establishing branches in six locations including Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States, and has entered supply chains of major clients like Huawei and BYD [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 16.26% and a net profit margin of 6.56% [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 82 million yuan, a significant increase of 1578.59% year-on-year, attributed to improved receivables management [2] - The company’s R&D investment for the first three quarters was 28 million yuan, up 19.86% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "dual-platform strategy" focusing on "electronic assembly + reliability materials," with plans for acquisitions to enhance its product matrix [3] - The acquisition of a 65% stake in Jiaxing Jifei aims to expand the company's reliability materials product offerings, particularly in fire extinguishing materials [3][13] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.54 billion yuan, 1.96 billion yuan, and 2.50 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 100 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 176 million yuan [4][35] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 27.0%, 27.4%, and 27.7% [33] Market Position and Clientele - The company serves a diverse range of industries including consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic sectors, collaborating with well-known clients such as Gree Electric and DJI [11][12] - The company’s products are positioned to compete with leading international brands, enhancing its market presence [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].