- The report compares the performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index (STAR 50), ChiNext Index, and CSI All Share Index before and after the tariff war escalation on April 2, 2025, and October 10, 2025[7][8][9] - The report highlights the increase in the proportion of stocks hitting new highs within the past year across various indices, indicating a higher market recognition and trend strength compared to early April 2025[10][11][12] - The turnover rate of the STAR 50 Index is significantly higher, suggesting a potential overheating and correction risk, while the ChiNext Index and CSI All Share Index have moderate turnover rates[27][28][32] - The valuation metrics (PE_TTM) for the three indices have increased significantly since April 2025, indicating higher market valuations and potential short-term volatility and correction risks[33][37] - The financing balance of the three indices has increased substantially, reflecting a stronger bullish sentiment in the market, but the current market overheating level is lower compared to the 2015 bull market peak[38][39][43] - The report compares the performance of various industries before and after the tariff war escalation, noting that the computer, electronics, and media industries performed well before the escalation, while the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics industries performed well after the escalation[44][45][47] - The valuation levels of most industries have increased since April 2025, with the average price-to-book ratio and price-to-earnings ratio percentiles rising significantly, indicating higher market valuations and potential short-term risks for high-valuation sectors[46][48][50] - The report emphasizes the need to be cautious of sectors with high valuation percentiles and recent high trading activity, such as the computer and electronics industries, which may experience short-term volatility[46][54][55]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 13 日 马赫 ——利率周报（2025.9.29-2025.10.12） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 国庆人均消费数据承压，外部风险上升 报告核心观点：国庆假期消费量升价缓，人均数据承压。25 年国庆中秋假期，全国 国内出游达 8.9 亿人次，较 24 年国庆节假日 7 天增长 1.2 亿人次，总消费 8090.1 亿元，较 24 年国庆节假日 7 天增长 15.4%。从人均消费看，今年国庆假期期间，人 均消费同比-0.6%至 911 元，人均日均消费较去年-13.0%。整体而言，国庆消费数 据或反映国内消费意愿较为低迷，消费下沉趋势持续。外部环境扰动，政策风险与 不确定性上升。美国联邦政府"停摆"事件对全球市场情绪形成短期冲击，特朗普 宣布对华加征 100%关税，可能加剧中美摩擦，美联储 10 月降息 25BP 概率提升。 近两周（9/29-10/12）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current data asset ABS has three models: "data - pledged loan", "accounts receivable/financial leasing + data pledge", and "data - empowered pricing". Policy support has been provided for the value transformation path from data "resources" to "assets" and then to "capital", but there are still pain points in the development of data asset ABS. Some data asset ABS products have investment value due to their asset pool quality, credit - enhancement measures, and yield advantages [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Models of Data Asset ABS - As of September 22, 2025, 7 data asset ABS have been issued in China, with a total scale of 2.49 billion yuan. Six of the issuers are state - owned enterprises, and only one is a private enterprise. The three models are: "data - pledged loan" (e.g., "Data 1 Phase"), "accounts receivable/financial leasing + data pledge" (e.g., "Rugao 01" and "Liantou 3 Phase"), and "data - empowered pricing" (e.g., "Zhongtoubao 2 Phase" and "Jiangong Project") [2][3][5] - The first approved data asset labeled product is the "Huaxin - Xinxin - Data Asset 1 - 5 Phase Asset - Backed Special Plan", with a total shelf scale of 500 million yuan. The first successfully established data asset ABS product is the "Ping'an - Rugao Phase 1 Asset - Backed Special Plan (Data Asset)", with a scale of 130 million yuan and a coupon rate as low as 2.4% [4] 3.2 Policy Support for Value Transformation - Policies such as the "Data Twenty Articles" in December 2022, the "Interim Provisions on the Accounting Treatment of Enterprise Data Resources" in August 2023, and the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Data Asset Management" in December 2023 have provided support for the value transformation from data "resources" to "assets" and then to "capital" [2][12] - However, the development of data asset ABS still faces pain points, including inconsistent data confirmation and registration standards, the lack of a perfect valuation system, and increasing data security and compliance risks [2][13] 3.3 Investment Value Analysis of Data Asset ABS - In terms of asset pool quality, "Zhongtoubao 2A/2C" and "25 Jiangong You/Ci" have excellent asset pools. "Data 1 You/Ci" is in the middle. "Rugao 01 You/Ci" and "25 Yihang You/Ci" have creditworthy but concentrated debtors. "Liantou 3 You/Ci" and "25 Xingzu 01/Ci" have relatively weak asset pools [16] - Regarding credit - enhancement measures, "25 Jiangong You/Ci" and "Rugao 01 You/Ci" have high credit - enhancement effectiveness. "Liantou 3 You/Ci" has a 100% data asset pledge but depends on the quality of underlying leasing assets. "Zhongtoubao 2A/2C" has traditional credit - enhancement methods [17] - Some data asset ABS have higher yields than other bonds of the same credit subject, same rating, and similar maturity due to structural complexity and liquidity premium. For example, on September 24, 2025, the yield of "Data 1 You" was about 11bp higher than that of "Meixin 3A" [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.9% from 2025 to 2030 [3][13]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales increasing from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 23.2% [13][18]. - The market is expected to grow from 82.5 billion RMB in 2025 to 213.3 billion RMB by 2030, driven by consumer demand for emotional and cultural connections through products [13][18]. - Key growth segments include搪胶毛绒 (rubber plush toys) and手办 (figurines), with market shares projected to rise significantly by 2030 [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Offline Exhibitions Enhance Brand Exposure - The Wonder Festival 2025 showcased over 400 exhibitors and attracted more than 120,000 attendees, highlighting the growing consumer interest in潮玩 [6][9]. - Upcoming exhibitions like the CTE China Toy and潮玩展 are expected to gather over 2,500 exhibitors and 5,400 brands, further promoting the潮玩 industry [9][10]. 2. Market Growth and Projections - The潮玩 industry is projected to reach a retail value of 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations of continued growth at a CAGR of 20.9% through 2030 [3][13]. - The market is characterized by a relatively fragmented structure, with the top five retailers holding a combined market share of 20.7% [18][19]. 3. Company Developments - The report highlights柏星龙's establishment of龙衍文创 to explore consumer-facing cultural products, with plans to launch innovative products like the second-generation "独眼星球" plush toy in late 2025 [25][26]. - The company is focusing on product-driven sales strategies rather than heavy marketing expenditures, indicating a shift towards leveraging product quality and consumer engagement [25][26]. 4. Market Valuation Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the broader consumer sector on the北交所 has decreased from 57.2X to 56.2X, reflecting market adjustments [40][41]. - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies on the北交所 has seen a decline, indicating potential volatility in the sector [34][37].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 13 日 收益率大多下行，利差小幅波动 ——信用分析周报（2025/9/28-2025/10/11） 投资要点： 本周（9/28-10/11）市场概览： 1）一级市场：因涉及国庆假期，本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上 周均有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 161 亿元；本周 AA、AA+产业 债发行利率重新回到 3%上方，AA+、AAA 金融债发行利率重新升至 2%上方。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 505 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率除产业债较上周无变化外，其余券种换手率较上周整体下行。本周不同评级 不同期限的信用债收益率大多下行，短端下行幅度大于中长端。总体来看，本周 AA 商业贸易行业信用利差大幅走扩，AA+电子、纺织服装行业信用利差大幅压缩，其 余不同行业不同评级的信用利差波动幅度均不超过 3BP。具体来看，本周 AA 商业 贸易行业信用利差较上周走扩 12BP，本周 AA+电子、纺织服装行业信用利差较上周 分别压缩 9BP、8BP，除此以外，其余各行业各评级的债券信用利 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region was celebrated, showcasing significant economic achievements. Since its establishment in 1955, Xinjiang's GDP has grown from 1.231 billion to 2.05 trillion in 2024, an increase of over 200 times. The fixed asset investment growth rate in Xinjiang has significantly outpaced the national average, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in the first eight months of 2025, compared to the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - Transportation infrastructure investment in Xinjiang is experiencing high growth, with plans to complete 80 billion yuan in road traffic investment in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Key projects include the Urumqi-Weili Highway and the new Tibet Railway, which is expected to start construction in November 2025 [3][12] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is accelerating, with total investment in ongoing and planned projects exceeding 625.5 billion yuan. This includes significant investments in coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects, indicating a complete industrial chain development [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment growth is robust, with a 9.1% increase year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly higher than the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - The region's GDP has seen exponential growth, highlighting its economic resilience and investment potential [2][9] 2. Transportation Infrastructure - Xinjiang plans to invest approximately 80 billion yuan in road construction in 2025, with a focus on major projects to enhance connectivity [3][11] - The new Tibet Railway project is set to begin construction in November 2025, with an estimated total investment of 300-350 billion yuan [12][13] 3. Coal Chemical Industry - The total investment in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang exceeds 625.5 billion yuan, with significant contributions from coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects [4][18] - The coal chemical sector is expected to form a complete industrial chain, enhancing energy supply and industrial upgrading [4][18] 4. Market Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 2.84% this week, with significant gains in infrastructure and chemical engineering sectors [6][25] - Notable stock performances include Xinjiang Jiaojian (+20.97%) and Beixin Road and Bridge (+13.71%) [6][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector is resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express delivery prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies. Long-term positive competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [13] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green renewal progress being the core demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy. Factors constraining new ship market activities are expected to ease or improve, suggesting a potential profit realization period for shipbuilding companies [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% in the number of packages delivered [24] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing strong growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a remarkable 34.8% year-on-year increase [26] Shipping - The current week saw a slight increase in the Clarkson comprehensive freight rate to $28,977 per day, while the BDI index decreased by 4.3% to 1,941 points [44] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) decreased by 2.5% to 1,084 points, indicating a slight downturn in the market [44] Aviation - In August 2025, global air passenger demand grew by 4.6%, with a load factor of 86.0%, marking a historical high for the month [10] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [55] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability due to strategic transformations and ecosystem optimizations [15] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports reached 272.175 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [71] - Container throughput also saw an increase of 8.84%, indicating a robust performance in the port sector [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "14th Five-Year" Energy Planning Management Measures emphasizes compliance and economic viability in energy projects, with stricter controls on project inclusion in energy planning [2][7] - The new measures aim to enhance the systematic, authoritative, scientific, and adaptive nature of energy planning, with a focus on mid-term and summary evaluations [7][9] - The market sentiment towards new energy development has been pessimistic due to the negative impact of market transactions on investment returns, but the 2035 development goals announced by President Xi Jinping have provided reassurance [3][10] - The government is addressing irrational competition in the energy sector, particularly in coal and photovoltaic industries, to stabilize prices and promote the exit of inefficient capacities [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Energy Planning Management Measures - The new management measures replace the previous version and are effective for five years, focusing on high-quality energy development [7] - The measures restrict provincial energy planning from including projects not approved at the national level, ensuring a more rigorous planning process [8][9] 2. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with third-quarter performance catalysts, highlighting long-term investments in quality hydropower and undervalued wind power companies [12][13] - Short to medium-term recommendations include companies with strong asset quality and management capabilities, as well as regional stocks with lower downside risk [11][12]

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 印尼供给扰动推动锡价走强，稀土行业出台出口管制公告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/9/29-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：宏观情绪增强，氧化镨钕高位震荡。近两周，氧化镨钕下跌 0.89%至 55.75 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.62%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.35%至 702.5 万元/吨。 ...