证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 12 日 投资要点： 科创 50 1,511.84 2.43% 7.73% 北证 50 1,605.77 5.35% 9.50% 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月12日 华源晨会精粹 20260112 固定收益 关注边际修复行业的配置机会——信用分析周报：本周信用热点事件：（1） 交易商协会发布《关于进一步规范债务融资工具发行工作的业务提示》；（2）贵州 省人民政府印发《支持推动兴业强县富民一体发展若干政策措施》。本周不同行业 不同评级的信用利差大多有 10BP 以内的压缩幅度，非银金融 AA+信用利差大幅走 扩 20BP。城投债方面，本周不同期限的城投信用利差较上周有 1-4BP 的压缩幅度。 产业债方面，本周产业债信用利差 1Y 短端大幅走扩，1Y 以上大多有不同程度压缩。 银行资本债方面，本周银行二永债 1Y 以内短端利差小幅走扩，3Y 显著压缩，5-10Y 中长端小幅压缩。2025 年下半年以来，"反内卷"政策催化商品价格企稳回升，部 分行业基本面现修复迹象。截至 2026/1/7，有色金属行业存量债券共 290 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the building intelligence sector, focusing on smart home solutions and has a strong presence in the KNX product market, which is expected to grow significantly [8][11]. - The company has a competitive edge due to its early entry into the KNX technology field and continuous investment in research and development, which is anticipated to enhance its market share as production capacity expands [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2011, specializes in building intelligence, providing integrated solutions including smart control systems and visual intercom systems, with a focus on smart homes, visual intercoms, and LCD displays [16][19]. 2. Market Growth - The Chinese smart home market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% for global KNX products from 2025 to 2031 [48][46]. 3. Technical Advantages - The company holds the largest number of KNX products in China and ranks sixth globally, with a strong emphasis on R&D, having developed proprietary technologies and standards in the KNX domain [62][64]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 0.64 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.88 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 33.5, 28.5, and 24.4 [6][9]. 5. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from smart home products is expected to constitute 65.7% of total revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.2% and a gross margin of 63.21% [19][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics industry is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 8% in 2026, with a projected completion of 2.14 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 8% [4] - The industry is shifting focus from traditional growth based on scale and speed to quality improvement and reasonable growth, emphasizing the role of government in regulation and compliance [4] - The demand for e-commerce express delivery remains resilient, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices and releasing profit elasticity for companies [14] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [15] - The air transport sector is showing signs of a long-term bullish trend, with stable demand growth and tightening supply conditions [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The national postal conference highlighted the need for quality development and government involvement in the express logistics sector [4] - Jitu Express reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q4 2025, with significant growth in Southeast Asia and new markets [5] - The Jiangxi Provincial Postal Administration held a meeting to address the "de-involution" issue in the express industry, focusing on protecting couriers' rights and standardizing payment structures [6] Shipping and Ports - The Iranian unrest poses potential risks to oil exports and shipping rates, with three possible future scenarios affecting the oil transport market [10] - South Korean shipowners are actively acquiring older VLCCs, indicating a positive outlook for the VLCC market [11] - The overall shipping rates have shown slight declines, with the SCFI index decreasing by 0.5% [12] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has decreased by 4.7%, indicating a downward trend in shipping rates [13] Aviation - The civil aviation sector achieved a total profit of 6.5 billion yuan in 2025, with significant increases in passenger and cargo transport volumes [9] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 85.57%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [59] Road and Rail - National logistics operations have been running smoothly, with a decrease in freight transport volumes reported [13] - The road freight volume for November 2025 was 3.876 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [67] Port Operations - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, while container throughput increased by 6.27% [78]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintained) [5] Core Views - The report suggests actively monitoring the business progress of Honglu Steel Structure and China National Materials International. Honglu Steel Structure's Q4 2025 production reached 1.41 million tons, up 11.94% year-on-year, with an annual production of 5.021 million tons, reflecting a 11.3% increase. The capacity utilization rate is approximately 96.55%, indicating a significant improvement from 2024, suggesting the company has entered a high-efficiency operational phase. The introduction of nearly 2,500 welding robots and supporting smart production lines is expected to enhance production efficiency and actual effective capacity. Additionally, the company has improved its overseas certification system, which may become a new growth point in the medium to long term. China National Materials International has maintained the world's leading market share in cement engineering for 17 consecutive years, with overseas markets being the primary source of business. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company signed new overseas orders worth 41.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.75%, indicating a high level of overseas order activity, providing a solid foundation for future business development. The company has also committed to a stable cash dividend policy, with a payout ratio of no less than 40% of the distributable profits for 2024-2026, enhancing its investment attractiveness [4][6][13][15]. Industry Performance - Recent data indicates that infrastructure and livelihood security construction in China continues to progress steadily. As of January 5, 2026, the high-speed railway network covers approximately 97.2% of cities with populations over 500,000, with operational mileage exceeding 50,000 kilometers, projected to grow by 32.98% during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Local governments are increasing efforts in affordable housing construction, with significant projects completed in regions like Xinjiang and Beijing. The national water network construction is accelerating, with 181 major water conservancy projects initiated during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with total investments reaching 5.68 trillion yuan [7][24][26]. Infrastructure Data Tracking - New special bonds issued this week amounted to 87.434 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1019.34 billion yuan as of January 11, 2026. The issuance of urban investment bonds this week was 90.859 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 28.226 billion yuan, and a cumulative net financing amount of 19.408 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.98% [8][40]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89% this week. The Shenwan Construction Decoration Index increased by 5.72%, with other professional engineering, steel structure, and landscaping engineering sectors leading the gains at +16.91%, +11.93%, and +7.34%, respectively. A total of 142 stocks in the construction sector rose, with the top five performers being Zhite New Materials (+148.84%), China Nuclear Construction (+34.50%), Yaxiang Integration (+31.41%), Nongshang Environment (+30.90%), and *ST Tianlong (+28.95%) [9][32].

Group 1 - The "Healthy China" strategy is driving an increase in residents' health literacy, with a projected level of 31.87% by 2024, up 2.17 percentage points from 2023 [6][10][11] - The silver economy is expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for 6% of GDP, and reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating significant growth potential [6][11] - The Z generation has integrated health into their fixed living expenses, with 47.0% of young people frequently purchasing health products/services, leading to a high penetration rate of 84.3% in health consumption [19][21][22] Group 2 - The nutritional functional food market in China is projected to reach 233.1 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% expected from 2024 to 2029 [28][38] - The market for special medical foods is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26% from 2019 to 2024, with the market size increasing from 7.3 billion yuan in 2019 to 23.2 billion yuan in 2024 [28][15] - The konjac food market has shown a CAGR of 20% from 2014 to 2023, with consumption trends on the rise, particularly among younger demographics [28][39] Group 3 - The nutritional functional food industry is characterized by a diverse range of subcategories, including weight management, sports nutrition, beauty nutrition, gut health, healthy snacks, and basic nutrition, with sports nutrition being the fastest-growing segment [30][39] - The contract manufacturing market for nutritional functional foods is expected to grow from 25.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 44.1 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.8% [42][38] - The health snack segment is the largest application scenario within the nutritional functional food market, projected to reach 97.1 billion yuan in 2024 [38][41] Group 4 - Companies like Kangbiter, a leading brand in sports nutrition, and Hengmei Health, a contract manufacturer of nutritional functional foods, are positioned to benefit from the growing health consumption trend [28][46][48] - The nutritional functional food industry is experiencing rapid development, with increasing competition among brands and a focus on product innovation to meet diverse consumer demands [30][38] - The overall market for nutritional health foods is expected to reach 522.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted growth to 720.3 billion yuan by 2029, driven by rising consumer health awareness and regulatory improvements [30][34]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the ongoing trend of domestic substitution and the emergence of high-quality domestic brands [1][5] - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong brand marketing, product matrix, channel strategies, and management strategies [5][27] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in leading domestic brands such as Mao Ge Ping, Marubi, Proya, and RuYuchen, which are expected to maintain strong growth due to their competitive advantages [5][27] Group 2 - In 2025, the beauty and personal care sector showed stable revenue performance, with a slight increase in profit growth compared to revenue growth [17][22] - The overall performance of the beauty sector in 2025 was moderate, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.1% and a net profit increase of 5.0% [17][22] - The cosmetics market in 2025 experienced a steady retail growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in retail sales for cosmetics in China [22][27] Group 3 - The report notes a significant shift in consumer preferences towards efficacy-driven skincare products, with a growing focus on product ingredients and effectiveness [53][57] - The luxury segment of the beauty market is experiencing robust growth, particularly during promotional events, with high-end brands leading the sales increase [63][64] - The report highlights the transformation of sales channels, with Tmall focusing on high-end beauty products while Douyin showcases the rise of domestic brands [30][28] Group 4 - The medical aesthetics market is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 10% from 2025 to 2028, despite a slowdown in overall growth [31][38] - High-end consumers are increasingly seeking anti-aging treatments, with a notable rise in spending among this demographic [41][39] - The medical aesthetics industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, driven by stricter regulations and a slowdown in the growth of medical institutions [42][43] Group 5 - The personal care market is seeing strong growth in body care products, with a market share of 56% for body care and 44% for hair care [47][45] - The primary consumer demographic for personal care products is women aged 21-35, indicating a growing emphasis on personal care among younger consumers [48][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of product efficacy, with consumers increasingly prioritizing moisturizing, oil control, and beauty-enhancing benefits in personal care products [48][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The supply-demand tension in the small metals sector is intensifying, with tungsten prices breaking through 480,000 CNY/ton, setting a new historical high [4] - The report highlights the price movements of various small metals, indicating a general upward trend in prices due to supply constraints and stable demand from downstream industries [5] Summary by Category Rare Earths - The supply-demand situation is weak, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 5.31% to 624,500 CNY/ton, dysprosium oxide increasing by 8.27% to 1,440,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide up by 3.41% to 6,225,000 CNY/ton [6][11] - Recommendations include focusing on companies such as Guangsheng Youse, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 11.07% to 4,115 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rising by 8.21% to 263,500 CNY/ton [20] - Suggested focus on Jinmoly Co., Ltd. [20] Tungsten - Tungsten prices continue to reach historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 5.02% to 481,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices increasing by 4.44% to 705,000 CNY/ton [26] - Recommended companies include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [26] Tin - Tin prices are showing strength, with SHFE tin prices increasing by 4.13% to 352,500 CNY/ton and LME tin prices rising by 3.17% to 44,525 USD/ton [29] - Companies to watch include Tin Industry Co., Ltd. and Huaxi Youse [29] Antimony - Antimony prices are experiencing fluctuations, with antimony ingot prices decreasing by 1.25% to 158,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices down by 1.40% to 140,500 CNY/ton [38] - Focus on companies like Huaxi Youse and Hunan Gold [38]

Group 1 - The AI application market in China is projected to grow from CNY 282 billion in 2021 to CNY 639 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.35%, and is expected to reach CNY 1,148 billion by 2026 [3][38][39] - The number of AI companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is 28, covering various segments of the AI industry [57] - The AI application industry is segmented into upstream, midstream, and downstream, with upstream providing computing power infrastructure and data services, midstream developing solutions for various fields, and downstream targeting sectors like internet, finance, education, healthcare, and industry [35][38] Group 2 - The electronic equipment industry on the BSE has seen a median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio increase from 54.6X to 59.7X, with a median market capitalization rise from CNY 2.35 billion to CNY 2.48 billion [3][25] - The mechanical equipment industry on the BSE has experienced a median P/E ratio increase from 41.1X to 43.6X, with a median market capitalization increase from CNY 2.17 billion to CNY 2.29 billion [3][29] - The information technology industry on the BSE has seen a median P/E ratio increase from 66.7X to 72.9X, with a median market capitalization rise from CNY 2.32 billion to CNY 2.53 billion [3][33] Group 3 - The automotive industry on the BSE has maintained a median P/E ratio of 31.9X, with a median market capitalization increase from CNY 2.07 billion to CNY 2.09 billion [3][37] - The new energy industry on the BSE has seen a median P/E ratio increase from 33.2X to 34.5X, with a median market capitalization rise from CNY 2.22 billion to CNY 2.34 billion [3][41] - The report highlights several companies in the AI+ industry chain, including those providing computing power services, AI applications, and AI-powered products across various sectors [58][59]

证券研究报告 传媒 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 11 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC：S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC：S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 许孟婕 SAC：S1350525120004 xumengjie@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： AI 应用仍是核心，重视 AI 营销 GEO 模式 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.11） 投资要点： 电影/电视剧方向：《飞驰人生 3》正式定档 2026 年春节，或将随着春节档演绎。 我们建议关注相关电影出品/发行方以及院线公司：包括中国电影、猫眼娱乐、大麦 娱乐、上海电影、幸福蓝海、横店影视、金逸影视等。同时，电视剧行业方面，国 家广播电视总局印发实施《进一步丰富电视大屏内容 促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index rose by 7.81% from January 5 to January 9, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.03%. The brain-machine interface and AI medical sectors are expected to remain active in Q1 2026, with a strong rebound in innovative drugs, particularly small nucleic acids [5][25] - The report highlights the potential for significant advancements in small nucleic acids in 2026, driven by breakthroughs in liver-targeted delivery technologies and a surge in clinical data readouts [8][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting innovative drug stocks with strong fundamentals and suggests focusing on companies that have undergone sufficient adjustments [5][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index saw 443 stocks rise and 25 fall during the week, with notable gainers including Innovative Medical (+61.04%) and Sanbo Brain Science (+56.15%). Conversely, Baohua Pharmaceutical saw a decline of -21.65% [5][26][27] Small Nucleic Acids - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the small nucleic acid sector, with advancements in liver-targeted delivery technologies and a high frequency of clinical data readouts expected [8][22] - Arrowhead's delivery platform has shown promising results in clinical trials, validating the feasibility of RNAi therapies for obesity and other conditions [9][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with leading platform capabilities and differentiated pipeline layouts, such as Rebio Biotech, Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, and Frontier Biotech [20][24] - It also recommends a diversified investment approach, including innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces, and AI medical technologies [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes that the aging population and increasing healthcare demands are driving growth in the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on chronic diseases and innovative medical technologies [47] - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic companies enhancing their capabilities in the global market, particularly in innovative drug development and medical devices [46][47] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended stocks include China National Pharmaceutical Group, Rebio Biotech, Shanghai Yizhong, and Yuyuan Medical [49]