Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The copper smelting profit cycle is expected to bottom out, and copper prices may break upward. Recent price changes for copper are +2.66% (LME), +2.07% (SHFE), and +5.64% (COMEX). The domestic copper inventory has significantly decreased, with LME copper inventory at 159,425 tons (+2.84%), SHFE copper inventory at 97,930 tons (-11.46%), and COMEX copper inventory at 41,900 short tons (+3.93%) [5][25] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory depletion, leading to rising aluminum prices. The current price of aluminum is 21,510 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry has increased to 62.3% [5][33] - The lithium market is seeing a reversal in supply and demand, with lithium prices entering a new cycle. The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 1.57% to 93,750 CNY/ton, and spodumene prices have increased by 5.60% to 1,150 USD/ton [5][72] - The cobalt market remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising. The price of MB cobalt has increased by 0.31% to 23.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices have risen by 0.25% to 406,000 CNY/ton [5][80] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37% compared to the index's 1.40% [12][13] - The PE_TTM valuation for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.90, while the PB_LF valuation is 3.08, indicating a premium over the overall market [21][22] 2. Copper - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper up 2.66% and SHFE copper up 2.07%. The copper smelting profit margin remains negative at -1,816 CNY/ton, but losses are narrowing [25][33] 3. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of recovery with rising prices and decreasing inventories. The operating rate for aluminum processing has increased, indicating stronger demand [33][41] 4. Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with significant increases in both lithium carbonate and spodumene prices. The supply-demand dynamics are shifting positively for lithium producers [72][80] 5. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions. The recent increase in cobalt prices reflects ongoing demand pressures [80][81]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 楼市迎复苏新章，价值沐重估春风 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——香港楼市跟踪专题报告 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 年初至今中国香港（以下简称"香港"）楼市回暖趋势延续。1）成交规模稳步回升： 2025 年 1-9 月，香港一手/二手私人住宅成交量分别同比+25%/+19%，成交量分别 创 2020/2022 年以来的同期新高。2）房价出现企稳信号：9 月，香港私人住宅售价 指数同比+1.81%，房价同比结束了连续 43 个月的下跌。同时，中原城市领先指数 在 10 月继续上行，显示量价复苏趋势仍在延续。3）库存去化压力边际改善：截至 2025 年 Q2 末，一手私人住宅已完工未售及在建库存较 2024Q3 末的历史峰值下降 7%，对应 MA12 个月的销售去化周期为 65.3 个月， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its stable industrial control business and growth potential in energy storage and solid-state battery sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's industrial control business is stabilizing, while its energy storage capacity expansion and solid-state battery layout are expected to drive performance growth [5][6]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 234 million RMB in 2023 to 5.08 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 98.49% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 46 million RMB in 2023 to 409 million RMB by 2027, with a notable increase in profitability metrics such as ROE [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Wireless Remote Control Equipment and Energy Storage Business - The company reported a net profit of 48.09 million RMB for Q1-Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9% [6][15]. - The industrial wireless control equipment business includes the development, production, and sales of both the OHM and HBC brands, serving major clients like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [6][25]. - The energy storage business is expected to see significant growth, with revenue projected to reach 2.77 billion RMB in 2024, contributing over 54% to total revenue [6][54]. Growth Potential - The energy storage segment is anticipated to expand rapidly, with production capacity expected to exceed 10 GWh by 2026, driven by ongoing projects and increasing demand [6][50]. - The company has secured contracts worth 4.02 billion RMB for energy storage projects, indicating strong market demand and operational capacity [6][10]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 74 million RMB, 220 million RMB, and 409 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 52.8 to 9.6 [5][7]. - The company is positioned favorably against comparable firms, with a current average P/E of 73X for peers in the industry [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][6] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhua Coal Power at a transaction price of 11.15 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [5] - The acquisition is projected to increase the company's net profit attributable to shareholders from 5.34 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.79 billion yuan, marking a growth of 1.45 billion yuan [5] - The integration of Baiyinhua Coal Power's coal, electricity, and aluminum businesses aligns with the company's existing "coal-electricity-aluminum" model, potentially expanding its operational scale [5] - The acquisition is expected to add approximately 2 billion yuan to the company's net profit in 2025, with further asset injections anticipated from the controlling shareholder [5][6] Financial Summary - As of November 26, 2025, the company's closing price is 26.47 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 59,334.45 million yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.18% [3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025H1 are projected to be 2.38 yuan and 1.24 yuan respectively, with a slight dilution expected post-acquisition [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are estimated at 31,960 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.04% [7] - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 5,766 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.95% [7] - The company anticipates a dividend yield of 3.21% in 2024, increasing to 3.98% by 2027, indicating an attractive return for investors [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic floating - rate bond market has gone through three stages: initial development, scale expansion, and adjustment and transformation, with significant room for improvement in market scale and product structure [2][74]. - The US floating - rate bond market is relatively mature, mainly including TIPS and FRNs, with different issuance subjects and benchmark interest rates from the domestic market [17]. - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is complex, and their secondary - market liquidity is insufficient. Issuers and investors choose floating - rate bonds for different reasons, such as cost reduction and risk avoidance [2][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Floating - Rate Bond Market Development - The domestic floating - rate bond market started in 1995 and has experienced three rounds of expansion. In 2025 (as of October 13), 103 floating - rate bonds were issued, with a scale of 293.57 billion yuan [2][5]. - As of October 13, 2025, the domestic floating - rate bond stock was 648.991 billion yuan, accounting for 0.34% of the total bond balance. Policy - bank bonds are the largest variety, and the top three benchmark - interest - rate types in terms of scale are DR007, 1 - year LPR, and 5 - year LPR [2][6]. - The remaining maturity of outstanding floating - rate bonds is highly concentrated in the 1 - 3 - year medium - and short - term varieties, with a balance - scale proportion of 79.01% [15]. 2. US Floating - Rate Bond Market - As of June 30, 2025, the US floating - rate bond (TIPs + FRNs) stock was approximately $3.39 trillion, accounting for 9.36% of the total US - dollar bond scale. The main products are TIPs and FRNs [17]. - TIPs are linked to the CPI, with a fixed coupon rate and a floating principal to resist inflation. As of June 30, 2025, the TIPs stock was approximately $1.73 trillion, accounting for 51.03% of floating - rate government bonds [17]. - FRNs are linked to the US benchmark interest rate, with a more diverse range of issuers. As of June 30, 2025, the FRNs stock was approximately $1.66 trillion, accounting for 48.97% of floating - rate government bonds [22]. 3. Floating - Rate Bond Valuation - The pricing of floating - rate bonds is driven by two factors: current benchmark - interest - rate changes triggering coupon resets and changes in market expectations of future interest rates. YTM may be "distorted" in analyzing floating - rate bonds [38]. - Quantitative valuation analysis of floating - rate bonds is subjective because future cash flows cannot be determined in advance and rely on forward - interest - rate forecasts. Current methods include the ChinaBond valuation method, forward - interest - rate prediction, and using comparable fixed - rate bonds for valuation [46]. 4. Secondary - Market Trading of Floating - Rate Bonds - With the decline of the interest - rate center, the trading activity of floating - rate bonds has decreased. Their liquidity is generally lower than that of fixed - rate bonds of the same period [52][55]. - The five floating - rate bonds with the best liquidity as of October 19, 2025, are 25 Guokai 14, 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09, 25 Nongfa 09, 24 Nongfa 09, and 25 Guokai Kechuang 01. Liquidity is better for bonds with a large stock scale, a remaining maturity of 1 - 3 years, and a recent issuance date [61]. 5. Reasons for Issuers and Investors to Choose Floating - Rate Bonds - For issuers, floating - rate bonds can reduce issuance costs in a declining or stable interest - rate environment, have a built - in risk - hedging function, and help broaden financing channels [64][65]. - For investors, floating - rate bonds are an effective tool to avoid interest - rate risks and achieve asset - liability matching. Investing in floating - rate bonds with a high repricing frequency can reduce the duration exposure of commercial - bank asset portfolios [70][71]. 6. Future Outlook for the Domestic Floating - Rate Bond Market - The domestic floating - rate bond market has significant room for improvement in market scale, product structure, and function. Local governments and enterprises can issue floating - rate bonds with the government - bond yield as the benchmark, and the central government can issue floating - rate bonds linked to inflation indicators [74][75]. - Banks' self - operation of floating - rate bonds can effectively alleviate interest - rate risks. To improve liquidity, multi - dimensional measures should be taken, such as expanding issuance scale, standardizing terms, and unifying quotation methods [74][75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since October, the net value of credit bond ETFs has significantly recovered compared to the end of September, with interest rates showing a downward trend. The net value of different types of credit bond ETFs, including science - innovation bond ETFs, benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs, and others, has increased to varying degrees [2]. - There is a structural divergence in the trends of the circulating shares and market values of credit bond ETFs. Science - innovation bond ETFs have contributed the main scale increment, while the shares and market values of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have been gradually declining since early September [2]. - The market has fully priced the underlying bonds of the second batch of science - innovation bond ETFs in advance. The yield decline of the underlying bonds of the CSI AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index may be similar to that of general credit bonds, and the subsequent market trends of credit bond ETFs' underlying bonds may be in line with general credit bonds [2]. - The discount of credit bond ETFs has significantly narrowed compared to the first half of October, and there may still be room for further recovery in the future, mainly due to factors such as the potential demand from amortized fixed - open bond funds, the impact of the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the support from fixed - income wealth management products, and the expected decline in interest rates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Net Value Performance - As of November 21, the average unit net value of science - innovation bond ETFs has increased by 0.63% compared to the end of September, and most of them have recovered above 100 yuan. The average unit net value of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs has increased by 0.67% and is above 100 yuan. The net values of the three credit bond ETFs listed before the beginning of 2025 have also recovered to different degrees [2]. Share and Market Value Trends - As of November 21, the total market value of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs is 119.7 billion yuan, with 1.187 billion circulating shares; the total market value of science - innovation bond ETFs is 253.6 billion yuan, with 2.534 billion circulating shares; the total market value of corporate bond spread factor ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and short - term financing ETFs is 126.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6 billion yuan compared to the end of September [2]. - The shares and market values of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have been gradually declining since early September, while the total market value of science - innovation bond ETFs has rapidly climbed to over 250 billion yuan as of November 21, an increase of 125.1 billion yuan compared to September 23 [2]. Pricing of Underlying Bonds - Since the listing of the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs in late September, the yields of the underlying bonds of the CSI AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index have declined significantly. The decline in the yields of underlying bonds with different remaining maturities is in the range of 10 - 19BP, and the decline is not significantly different from that of general credit bonds [2]. Discount and Recovery Potential - As of November 21, the discount rate of benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs is 0.25%, and that of science - innovation bond ETFs is only 0.03%, significantly narrowing compared to the first half of October. The discounts of corporate bond spread factor ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs have also returned to near zero [2][3]. - There are four main reasons for the potential further recovery of credit bond ETF discounts: the potential demand from amortized fixed - open bond funds, the impact of the new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the support from fixed - income wealth management products, and the expected decline in interest rates [3][4].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report covers Huabao New Energy (301327.SZ), a global leader in portable energy storage, which has been growing rapidly since its establishment in 2011, focusing on consumer-grade green energy solutions [2][5] - As of H1 2025, the company's business has expanded to over 50 mainstream countries and regions, with a CAGR of 38.9% in revenue and 47.3% in net profit from 2014 to 2024 [2][5] - The portable energy storage industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth from 2024 to 2029, with trends towards larger capacity, higher safety, and lightweight products [2][5] Group 2: Market Position and Product Development - The company has regained the top market share in key channels such as Amazon in the US and Japan for the period from January to October 2025, thanks to its lightweight and cost-effective new products [2][5] - New product categories like mobile home storage and balcony solar storage are expected to drive a second growth curve, with the global home energy storage market showing significant potential [6][7] - The balcony solar storage product, HomePower2000Ultra, has demonstrated advantages in high power, plug-and-play functionality, and cost-effectiveness, contributing to a 106.4% year-on-year revenue growth in Europe for the first half of 2025 [6][7] Group 3: Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Huabao New Energy from 2025 to 2027 are 230 million, 500 million, and 790 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, +117.7%, and +57.2% respectively [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to these profits are expected to be 43, 20, and 12 times [7] Group 4: Company Overview of Ruihua Technology - Ruihua Technology (920099.BJ) is recognized as a "small giant" in chemical process package technology, focusing on the domestic replacement of imported equipment [8][9] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 555 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.74% [9][10] - The domestic production of styrene is expected to grow from 15.64 million tons in 2023 to 19.70 million tons by 2028, with a CAGR of 3.75% from 2024 to 2028 [8][9] Group 5: Competitive Advantages and Future Outlook - Ruihua Technology has successfully delivered overseas clients with styrene process packages and equipment, showcasing its core competitive advantage in self-developed complete technology [10][11] - The company has a solid patent portfolio with 72 authorized patents as of June 30, 2025, and is focusing on continuous innovation in its core technologies [10][11] - Future growth is anticipated as the company expands its overseas market presence and continues to innovate in technology and service offerings [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][10][44]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in portable energy storage and is expected to become a supplier of green energy solutions for households. Established in 2011, it has expanded its business into portable storage, balcony solar storage, and mobile home storage, covering over 50 countries as of mid-2025. The company's revenue and net profit have shown impressive compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 38.9% and 47.3% from 2014 to 2024, respectively [5][16][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The portable energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company benefiting from significant advantages in lightweight new products. The global market for portable energy storage is expected to maintain double-digit growth from 2024 to 2029, driven by trends towards larger capacity, higher safety, and lightweight products. The company regained the top market share in key channels like Amazon in the U.S. and Japan during the first ten months of 2025 [6][20][28]. New Product Categories - The company is entering new growth curves with mobile home storage and balcony solar storage. The global household energy storage market has substantial growth potential, with an expected installation capacity of 18.6 GWh in 2024. The company has launched innovative products like the Jackery Solar Generator 5000 Plus and the second-generation DIY balcony solar storage system, which have shown significant revenue growth in Europe [7][35][36]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 230 million, 502 million, and 789 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, +117.7%, and +57.2%. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 43, 20, and 12 for the same years. The company is compared with peers like Deye, Jinlang Technology, and Goodwe, indicating a solid foundation in portable energy storage and promising new product launches [8][10][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing housing prices for facilitating economic circulation, with expectations for further policy support. High-quality residential properties are anticipated to experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, suggesting a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4][45]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.1%, the ChiNext Index by 6.2%, and the CSI 300 Index by 3.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 5.8%. Notable stock performances included ST Zhongdi (+18.8%) and Shijie Lianhang (+12.5%), while Rongsheng Development (-16.9%) and Xinhua Lian (-15.2%) saw significant declines [4][7]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 15-21, 185,000 square meters of new homes were sold across 42 key cities, a 6.5% increase from the previous week but a 40.1% decrease year-on-year. For November (up to the 21st), total new home sales reached 514,000 square meters, a 4.6% increase month-on-month but a 41.7% decrease year-on-year [12][16]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, 200,000 square meters of second-hand homes were sold across 21 key cities, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week and a 14.3% decrease year-on-year. For November (up to the 21st), total second-hand home sales reached 594,000 square meters, a 41.6% increase month-on-month but a 20.2% decrease year-on-year [28][33]. Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national meeting to promote urban renewal, emphasizing its role in high-quality urban development. The Ministry also highlighted the need for systematic advancement of the "Four Goods" construction: good houses, good communities, good neighborhoods, and good cities. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance allocated 56.6 billion yuan for urban housing security projects for 2026 to improve livelihoods and stabilize the economy [45][46]. Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued 5.04 billion yuan in corporate bonds, while China Resources Land successfully issued two notes totaling 3 billion USD and 4.3 billion yuan. China Jinmao's subsidiary plans to sell its 100% stake in Jinmao (Sanya) Tourism for asset securitization purposes [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to strengthen real estate policy expectations, enhancing the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The recent pullback in the technology sector coincides with increased expectations for real estate policies, leading to a rise in the cost-performance ratio of the industrial chain. The cement sector is anticipated to benefit not only from demand-side logic but also from a reduction in overcapacity, with clinker capacity potentially decreasing to 1.6 billion tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of approximately 75% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of low-valuation stocks and the advantages of chip structure, recommending Global New Materials International (H-share) as a key investment opportunity. The pearlescent pigment industry is highlighted for its high growth potential and low price sensitivity, making it a rare "strong consumer attribute" sector [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index (Shenwan) decreased by 5.7%, with sub-sectors such as cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices falling by 5.6%, 8.6%, and 4.1% respectively. Notable stock performances include Jin Yuan Co. (+13.5%) and Fujian Cement (-21.5%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 350.8 RMB/ton, down 1.5 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 77.7 RMB/ton year-on-year. The national cement inventory ratio is 69.2%, with a shipment rate of 46.1% [15][15][15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 42.1 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 387.2 RMB/ton year-on-year. The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5,962 million heavy boxes, down 0.9% month-on-month and up 44.0% year-on-year [33][33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.0 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month and up 1.4 RMB/sqm year-on-year. The total number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 406, with a daily melting capacity of 88,590 tons [38][39] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4565.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 20.0 RMB/ton year-on-year. The average price of electronic yarn is 9250.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 250.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [44][44] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month, while small tow carbon fiber is priced at 95.0 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.5 RMB/kg year-on-year. The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 63.02%, unchanged month-on-month and up 11.42 percentage points year-on-year [48][48]