Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI hardware, and childcare subsidies, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [4][18]. Core Insights - The market is experiencing a rebound, with the North Exchange A-share trading volume reaching 26.42 billion yuan, an increase of 2.19 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1465.32, up 0.68%, with a PE_TTM of 68.41 times [2][8]. - The report highlights strong performance in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, driven by national childcare subsidy policies and industry R&D advancements, with companies like Sanmian Gene seeing a rise of over 20% [4][15]. - The report anticipates a mixed market in the short term but expects resilience in the medium to long term due to policy dividends and industrial upgrades [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On July 29, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 26.42 billion yuan, with 268 companies listed. Among these, 98 companies rose, 8 remained flat, and 162 fell [2][15]. - The top five gainers included Sanmian Gene (20.80%), Jikang Instrument (20.40%), and Huaitong New Materials (14.20%) [15][17]. Important News - The establishment of the third state-owned automobile enterprise, China Chang'an Automobile Group, aims to enhance the development of intelligent connected new energy vehicles [18]. - The report also mentions the establishment of a new semiconductor photomask company in Anhui, which will focus on producing photomasks for 28nm and above process nodes [19]. Key Company Announcements - Yintu Network received 10 software copyright registration certificates from the National Copyright Administration [3][24]. - Zhongcheng Technology signed a cooperation agreement with China Mobile for a big data cloud platform service project worth 50.52 million yuan [3][20]. - Sanmian Gene announced the approval of a new drug, recombinant human interferon α1b spray, by the National Medical Products Administration [3][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 305 million yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1][5] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through a semi-annual cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 122 million yuan, which accounts for 39.94% of the net profit for the first half of the year [3][5] - The company has successfully launched 36 innovative products and solutions, generating revenue of 642 million yuan, which constitutes 47% of total revenue for the first half of 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 813 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.90%. The net profit for the quarter was 166 million yuan, up 3.18% year-on-year [2] - The total new orders signed in the first half of 2025 amounted to 1.627 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.31% year-on-year growth. The total contracts on hand reached 3.956 billion yuan, a 12.63% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 9.18%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.83% [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.54 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 2.32 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 18, and 15 [3][4]

Group 1: Overseas Policy - The report analyzes three potential scenarios regarding Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence, including the nomination of aggressive rate-cutting candidates, cautious candidates, or the legal removal of Powell [2][7][9] - The current high-interest rate environment is straining the U.S. government's finances, with a potential $100 billion annual savings for every 25 basis points cut by the Fed [7][8] Group 2: Battery Industry - The report highlights the advantages of lithium metal anodes, which include high specific capacity and low electrode potential, positioning them as a long-term technological evolution direction for anodes [3][11] - The market potential for lithium metal anodes is estimated to be between 12 billion to 36 billion yuan, with a corresponding demand for lithium metal ranging from 961 tons to 2884 tons [3][11] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the anode industry, driven by lithium companies, anode manufacturers, and foil material suppliers, with a focus on technological advancements [11][12][13] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Industry - The report discusses the stock incentive plan of Jieya Co., which aims for significant revenue growth, with targets of at least 25%, 50%, and 100% growth from 2024 to 2027 [15][17] - The company is expanding its product lines and enhancing its production capacity, particularly in the wet wipes segment, with a focus on high-end products to improve profit margins [16][17] - Jieya Co. is also diversifying into medical and beauty sectors, leveraging its existing technology and partnerships to create a stable supply chain and expand its market presence [16][17] Group 4: Market Overview - The report notes the recent performance of major domestic and overseas indices, highlighting fluctuations and the need to focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI hardware for potential investment opportunities [4][6][19] - It suggests that the market may experience short-term volatility but could regain upward momentum in the medium to long term due to policy benefits and industry upgrades [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests focusing on sectors with technological scarcity and high financial growth potential, particularly in solid-state batteries, AI hardware, and fertility subsidies [3][19]. Core Insights - The market experienced fluctuations with a notable decrease in trading volume, where the North Exchange A-share trading amount reached 24.24 billion, down by 4.23 billion from the previous trading day [1][7]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors such as solid-state batteries and AI hardware, which are expected to benefit from recent developments and policy support [3][19]. - The upcoming earnings reports are anticipated to drive structural market trends, with a focus on companies showing high growth potential [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On July 28, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 24.24 billion, a decrease of 4.23 billion from the previous day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1455.37, down 0.25% [1][7]. - Among 268 companies listed, 153 saw an increase in stock prices, while 106 experienced declines, indicating a mixed market performance [1][16]. Important News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to consolidate the results of the comprehensive rectification of the new energy vehicle industry and strengthen governance in the photovoltaic sector [19]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced measures to combat low-quality and low-price competition among enterprises [20]. Key Company Announcements - Zizhong Temple announced plans to use up to 290 million yuan of idle funds for low-risk short-term financial products to enhance capital efficiency [21]. - Kairun Intelligent Control received a termination notice from the North Exchange regarding its application for a specific stock issuance [22]. - Dadi Electric announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Anhui Province with a registered capital of 50 million yuan to enhance production capacity [23].

海外政策专题报告 特朗普能撼动美联储的独立性吗？ 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 29 日 核心结论 为何当前特朗普不满美联储？当前高利率环境使得特朗普政府需要负担更 高的利息支出。在联邦政府财政压力加剧的背景下，高利率环境导致利息支 出激增，进一步加剧了美国财政困境。随着美国联邦债务限额再度提升 5 万 亿至 41 万亿美元，根据粗略估算美联储每降息 25bp 可以使得美国年利息支 出降低超 1000 亿美元。这一成本敏感性，正是当前特朗普政府积极推动美 联储降息的关键动因之一。 以史为鉴，美联储的独立性被动摇过吗？从历史演进看，美联储的制度独立 性呈现渐进式强化特征。其货币政策始终将独立性置于政府财政压力之上， 并未因联邦债务危机改变政策框架。美联储主席更迭通常会显著影响货币政 策的具体实施路径、工具选择及沟通风格，但对政策框架的连续性影响有限。 如何判断后续美联储货币政策演变。关税政策对通胀的影响或到 7 月才逐步 显现。美国就业数据仍然强劲，但背后也有风险。市场预期最早今年 9 月开 始降息，年内降息概率最大为两次。最早的理事变动将在明年 1 月末，而鲍 威尔主席任期将于明年 5 月到期。若特朗 ...

Core Conclusions - The WAIC 2025 showcased significant advancements in the domestic AI industry, highlighting the emergence of new AI chips and computing power solutions from local manufacturers [2][5][19] - The event emphasized the importance of AI commercialization and the integration of large models into practical applications, moving beyond mere demonstrations to real-world implementations [2][18] Group 1: AI Industry Developments - The WAIC 2025 featured the launch of Huawei's Ascend 384 Super Node, marking a milestone in China's AI computing infrastructure, with capabilities including ultra-large bandwidth and low latency [5][19] - Major AI chip manufacturers, such as Suirian Technology and Muxi, introduced their latest AI chips, indicating a significant breakthrough in domestic AI chip technology [6][7] - The event highlighted the growing trend of AI applications in various sectors, including humanoid robots and intelligent driving, showcasing how large models are being integrated into products and workflows [2][18] Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The communication sector experienced a shift in capital allocation, with AI chip and server segments seeing an uptick in investment, driven by the WAIC and external factors like Google's strong financial performance [9][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high growth potential in the AI computing chain, particularly in areas like IDC, computing leasing, and domestic optical modules [15][22] - The upcoming satellite industry developments are expected to catalyze investment opportunities, with new projects and testing phases set to begin [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements and trends in the AI industry showcased at the WAIC 2025, emphasizing the integration of model applications, embodied intelligence, and smart hardware [1][3] - The AI computing power segment is seeing significant innovations, with the launch of new GPUs and supernodes that enhance computational capabilities [2] - The commercialization of AI applications is progressing, with a shift from mere demonstrations to practical applications in humanoid robots and smart driving [3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The WAIC 2025 featured exhibitors and products focusing on model applications, embodied intelligence, and smart hardware, including AI chips and infrastructure [1] - Major highlights included the demonstration of advanced models and robots capable of complex tasks, showcasing the rapid development in AI technology [3] AI Computing Power - The report notes the introduction of the Mu Xi Xi Cloud C600 GPU and Huawei's Ascend 384 supernode, which can achieve a maximum computing power of 300 PFLOPS, nearly 50 times the power of a single node [2] AI Applications - Notable AI applications presented include the Yushu Robot R1 and the Zhiyuan Robot Lingxi X2, which can perform complex tasks such as sorting and playing musical instruments [3] - Alibaba launched the Quark AI glasses, integrating various applications into a compact design [3] Market Performance - The communication sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month return of 8.89%, a 3-month return of 28.49%, and a 12-month return of 52.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% in the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Insights - The weekly average trading volume on the North Exchange reached 31.08 billion yuan, a 42.4% increase compared to the previous week, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.85% [5][12]. - Key stocks that performed well included Hengli Drilling Tools (up 184.1%), Tietuo Machinery (up 64.9%), and Jikang Instruments (up 51.1%) [12][15]. - Significant news includes a record-breaking humanoid robot project by UBTECH worth 90.51 million yuan and the commencement of a 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project in Tibet [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The North Exchange's average daily trading volume was 31.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% week-on-week increase, with a daily turnover rate of 3.3% [5][6]. - The North Exchange 50 index saw a weekly increase of 2.85% [5]. Key News and Policies - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH set a global record with a contract worth 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year [14]. - The 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has officially commenced, expected to boost the infrastructure sector [16]. Core Driving Factors - Regulatory deepening and institutional optimization are progressing alongside the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which showcased advancements in AI and robotics [26]. - The infrastructure sector is gaining momentum due to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with increased activity in related industries [27]. - Market sentiment is improving with a return of liquidity, although volatility remains low [28]. Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Focus on sectors aligned with new productive forces, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and new energy equipment, prioritizing companies with technological barriers and scarce products in the A-share market [29]. - Emphasize growth companies with revenue and profit growth exceeding 20% and R&D intensity above 5%, while avoiding high-valuation sectors lacking performance support [29]. - Monitor event-driven catalysts, including project announcements and mergers, which may disrupt the current low-volatility environment [29].

Group 1: Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (600967.SH) - The company is the only main battle tank research and manufacturing base in China, driven by both domestic demand and foreign trade [1][6] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, down 41.33% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.731 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 11.03% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in performance [6] - The company is actively expanding into the unmanned military equipment sector, leveraging its technological advantages in armored vehicles [6][7] - The company expects a significant increase in foreign trade sales, with projected sales reaching 4.517 billion yuan in 2025, a 64% increase from 2024 [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.5 billion yuan, 13.1 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 750 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [7] Group 2: North Navigation (600435.SH) - The company is a core supplier of military guidance systems, benefiting from the rising demand for long-range fire systems [9][10] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.91%, and a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 69.29% year-on-year [10] - The company anticipates a turnaround in H1 2025, with projected net profit between 105 million and 120 million yuan, compared to a loss of 74.42 million yuan in the same period last year [10] - The company has developed a unique "8+3" technology system and is integrating big data, AI, and IoT into its production processes [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.24 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.64 billion yuan, with net profits of 310 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 510 million yuan respectively [11] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially close on December 18, 2025, which has been confirmed as a significant development for regional growth [13][16] - The report identifies four categories of companies that are expected to benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port: those with significant foreign trade, those involved in supporting construction, tourism-related companies, and other local beneficiaries [16] - The current market liquidity is relatively ample, and the risk appetite is high, suggesting that the Hainan theme could continue to perform well as long as policy details are implemented as planned [16] Group 4: Medical Devices - The National Health Commission is promoting a "reverse involution" policy in medical procurement, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of the medical device sector [18][19] - The 11th batch of centralized procurement has been initiated, with a focus on optimizing selection rules and ensuring quality, which may lead to a recovery in the performance of some domestic manufacturers [19][21] - Recommendations include companies involved in already centralized consumables, those expected to benefit from a slowdown in procurement, innovative devices, and stable equipment manufacturers [21] Group 5: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing significant developments, with major contracts being signed for eVTOL aircraft, indicating a potential transformation in the low-altitude economy [37][39] - The report highlights the importance of commercial rocket capacity for the rapid development of low-orbit satellites, suggesting that commercial rocket orders will be a key indicator for the sector's growth [25][39] - Companies involved in liquid rocket engines, structural components, and specialized manufacturing processes are recommended for investment [25][39]

TERN TO HISTHER 固定收益周报 本轮债市调整的特征、原因及后续空间 证券研究报告 ● 核心结论 权益、商品表现亮眼背景下,债市调整加剧,债基或遭遇大额赎回。或因遭 遇较大赎回压力,周内基金大量卖债,单日卖出规模近千亿。 本轮调整有何特征?(1)价格角度:本轮调整幅度较小、时间不长,但前 期市场已持续阴跌近三周。(2)数量角度:本轮调整中基金现券净卖出规 模较大、理财端维持净买入。 本轮调整原因何在?(1)风险偏好上行、基本面预期边际改善为主要因素。 但与 2015年供给侧改革相比,本轮反内卷政策供需失衡行业占比增多,且 主要针对中下游民企,相对于上一轮集中在上游国企而言,本轮对 PPI 的影 响或更小,后续关注供给端限产情况与需求端改善情况。(2)货币政策态 度转变担忧、前期市场拥挤度高放大市场波动。 分析师 S0800524020002 15692145933 iiangpeishan@research.xbmail.com.cn 魏旭博 S0800525040007 13001269355 weixubo@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 P 后续调整空间还有多大?结合本 ...