Tariff Negotiations - On July 9, President Trump announced a delay in "reciprocal" tariffs until August 1, with a commitment that this date "will not change" [2] - By August 1, the U.S. had reached trade agreements with most major trading countries, reducing uncertainty around tariff policies [2] - The new tariff rates are expected to be lower than previous proposals but will still range from 10% to 20% for various countries [16] Economic Impact - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs could generate $2.3 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government over the next 10 years, assuming import shares remain unchanged [3] - The increase in tariffs may lead to a 1.8% rise in consumer prices in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not respond with policy changes [17] - The tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 due to increased consumer burden and retaliatory measures [17] Currency and Investment - Increased investment in the U.S. and procurement of American goods may support the dollar's exchange rate and facilitate the return of manufacturing [24] - The combination of trade surplus and capital inflow could lead to a temporary appreciation of the dollar [24] Inflation and Federal Reserve Response - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become fully evident in July and August, with price adjustments typically occurring 1-3 months after tariff implementation [25] - Following recent comments from Fed Chair Powell, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50% [25] Risk Factors - There are significant geopolitical risks that could exceed expectations, potentially impacting trade agreements and economic stability [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment industry, highlighting significant growth opportunities driven by technological advancements and policy support [2][62]. Core Insights - The 800V high-voltage architecture is set to transform the AIDC power supply system, with Nvidia planning to launch an 800V high-voltage direct current power supply system by 2027, prompting a shift in the industry [2][55]. - The demand for AI continues to surge domestically, leading to a projected 30% increase in the price of large diesel generators within the year [2]. - The renewable energy sector is experiencing a robust transition, with significant increases in installed capacity and generation from renewable sources, accounting for 39.7% of total electricity generation in the first half of 2025 [62][63]. Summary by Sections AIDC Power Supply System - The introduction of the 800V high-voltage direct current system is expected to enhance power delivery efficiency and reduce infrastructure complexity, potentially increasing data center energy efficiency by 5% and cutting copper cable usage by 45% [55][56]. - Major suppliers like InnoSilicon are seeing substantial growth, with a reported 986.7% increase in automotive-grade product shipments [55]. Diesel Generators - AIDC bidding has commenced, with diesel generator prices expected to rise to 3.3-3.5 million yuan per unit, up from 2.6 million yuan earlier this year [57][59]. Renewable Energy Developments - In the first half of 2025, renewable energy installations reached 268 million kilowatts, a 99.3% year-on-year increase, with wind and solar power contributing significantly to this growth [62]. - Wind power saw an addition of 51.39 GW of new grid capacity, with a total installed capacity of 573 million kilowatts, reflecting a 22.7% year-on-year increase [63]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Henan province has introduced new trading rules for auxiliary power services, enhancing market efficiency and competition [60][61]. - Shandong province is moving towards market-based pricing for renewable energy, indicating a shift in regulatory frameworks to support green energy initiatives [65]. Fusion Energy Sector - The fusion energy sector is advancing with multiple projects and a total budget exceeding 97 million yuan for recent procurement and engineering tenders [66].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [3][19]. Core Insights - The market performance on July 31 showed a decrease in trading volume, with the North Exchange A-share trading amount reaching 26.1 billion, down by 0.91 billion from the previous trading day [1][7]. - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1422.87, down 1.16%, with a PE_TTM of 66.55 times, while the specialized and innovative index closed at 2432.93, down 1.09% [1][7]. - Among 269 companies listed on the North Exchange, 44 saw an increase in stock prices, while 223 experienced declines, highlighting a mixed performance in the market [1][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The North Exchange A-share trading amount was 26.1 billion, a decrease of 0.91 billion from the previous day [1][7]. - The North Exchange 50 Index and specialized index both experienced declines of 1.16% and 1.09%, respectively [1][7]. Stock Performance - Top gainers included Dingjia Precision (479.1%), Guangdao Digital (29.9%), and Fangsheng Co. (15.1%) [1][16]. - Major decliners were Hengli Drilling (-11.4%), Knight Dairy (-7.8%), and Baijia Technology (-7.5%) [1][16]. Important News - The State Council emphasized the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to promote large-scale commercialization of AI applications [19]. - The National Medical Insurance Bureau has approved over 100 new medical technology pricing projects, facilitating rapid clinical application of brain-computer interface technologies [19]. Company Announcements - Vision Intelligence announced the use of 20 million in idle funds for cash management, with a remaining balance of 99.4 million, representing 36.99% of its audited net assets for 2024 [20]. - Andar Technology plans to repurchase shares using self-raised funds and bank loans, with the proposal approved by the board [22].

Macro Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by adverse weather conditions [6][8] - Manufacturing prices have begun to stabilize and rise due to ongoing capacity governance policies [8] - There is a need to further expand domestic demand, particularly in investment [8] Political Meeting Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized improving policy quality and effectiveness for the second half of the year [10][11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of consumer demand and stabilizing livelihoods, suggesting a focus on demand-side policies [13] - Policies to combat "involution" and promote collaboration between government and enterprises were also discussed [12] Fixed Income Insights - The July PMI data indicates a supply-demand decline, with the price index continuing to rise [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, reflecting weak seasonal performance [17] - The bond market is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation phase, with limited incremental policies [20] Computer Industry Insights - The AI application continues to progress, with significant growth in overseas tech giants driven by AI [22][25] - Domestic AI applications are expected to see increased monetization as models improve [25] - Key investment targets include companies like Kingdee International and Yonyou Network in the domestic AI application space [25] Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - Guobang Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 3.026 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 4.63% increase [31] - The animal health segment saw a significant revenue increase of 53.5%, driven by strong sales of core products [32] - The company is expanding into new areas such as plant protection and health products, indicating a long-term growth strategy [32] Market Strategy Insights - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, AI hardware, and military-related themes for investment opportunities [36] - The macro policy environment is expected to support long-term investments in specialized and innovative enterprises [36] - Investors are advised to look for structural opportunities in growth-oriented companies with core technological advantages [36]

Market Overview - On July 30, the North Exchange A-shares trading volume reached CNY 27.01 billion, an increase of CNY 0.59 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1439.64, down 1.75%, with a PE_TTM of 67.33 times[1] - The North Exchange Specialized and New Index closed at 2459.66, down 1.57%[1] Stock Performance - Out of 268 companies on the North Exchange, 81 rose, 4 remained flat, and 183 fell[1] - The top five gainers were: Yun Chuang Data (28.1%), Ke Li Co. (9.6%), Knight Dairy (9.3%), Fang Yi Pharmaceutical (9.2%), and Da Yu Biological (7.6%)[1] - The top five losers were: Ji Kang Instruments (-12.0%), Wu Xin Tunnel Equipment (-8.7%), Tie Tuo Machinery (-8.1%), Hui Tong New Materials (-7.0%), and Na Ke Nuo Er (-5.7%)[1] Investment Insights - Market focus was on themes such as innovative drugs, AI hardware, and military industry, with notable performance in these sectors[3] - The innovative drug sector showed increased activity due to policy support from the National Medical Insurance Administration[3] - The macro policy direction from the Central Political Bureau meeting supports long-term capital investment in specialized and new enterprises, indicating potential structural opportunities for growth-oriented companies[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy regulatory risks, North Exchange policies falling short of expectations, and intensified industry competition[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has implemented a stringent regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, aiming to ensure a stable and transparent market environment [2][14] - The licensing process for stablecoin issuers is cautious, with a minimum paid-up capital requirement of HKD 25 million or 1% of the circulating stablecoin's value, whichever is higher [3][15] - Existing stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong will receive a temporary license valid for six months, requiring them to apply for a formal license by October 31, 2025 [4][18] - The regulatory framework mandates that licensed issuers must fully back their stablecoins with high-quality, liquid assets, and undergo quarterly stress tests [5][20] - The anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) measures are among the strictest globally, requiring thorough customer identity verification and risk assessments for transactions above HKD 8,000 [6][22] Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Framework for Stablecoin Issuance - The HKMA has established detailed guidelines for the licensing and ongoing supervision of stablecoin issuers, emphasizing a cautious approach to maintain market order [14] - The licensing process is limited to companies registered in Hong Kong or recognized institutions, with strict capital and asset backing requirements [15][24] Section 2: Licensing Process for Existing Issuers - Existing stablecoin issuers must apply for a license by October 31, 2025, to continue operations, with a six-month transition period provided [18][19] - If they fail to apply or are denied a license, they will enter a one-month winding-up period starting November 1, 2025 [18][29] Section 3: Regulatory Oversight of Licensed Issuers - Licensed issuers are required to maintain reserves that fully back the circulating stablecoins, with specific asset allocation guidelines [20][24] - The framework includes robust internal governance and risk management structures, with a focus on compliance and regular audits [20][21] Section 4: AML and CTF Regulations - The regulations impose strict requirements for transaction monitoring and customer verification, aligning with international standards [22][23] - The HKMA's approach to non-custodial wallets and cross-border transactions is particularly rigorous, setting a precedent in global regulatory practices [22][23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase in the industry exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the unstoppable trend of AI-driven performance growth and sustained capital expenditure expansion among leading overseas technology companies, suggesting similar potential in domestic AI applications as performance improves and monetization accelerates [4]. - Key domestic AI application companies identified include Kingdee International, Yonyou Network, Dingjie Zhizhi, Guangyun Technology, Tax Friend Co., Wankong Technology, New Zhisoft, Maifushi, and Kuaishou-W [4]. - AI computing power companies mentioned are Cambrian and Haiguang Information [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Microsoft - In FY25 Q4, Microsoft reported revenue of $76.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and net profit of $27.2 billion, up 24% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The cloud business, particularly the intelligent cloud segment, saw revenue of $29.9 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase, accelerating from 21% in the previous quarter [1]. - Capital expenditure for Q4 was $24.2 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of $2.8 billion, nearly 13.1% [1]. Meta - Meta's Q2 revenue reached $47.52 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $18.34 billion, up 36% [2]. - The core advertising business generated $46.56 billion, benefiting from AI-driven efficiency improvements, with Instagram and Facebook seeing ad conversion rates increase by approximately 5% and 3%, respectively [2]. - Meta's projected capital expenditure for the year is between $66 billion and $72 billion, with the lower end raised from previous estimates [2]. Google - Alphabet's Q2 revenue was $96.4 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $28.2 billion, up 19% [3]. - Google Cloud revenue reached $13.6 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, with backlog orders growing by 18% to $106 billion [3]. - Capital expenditure expectations for the year were raised from $75 billion to $85 billion to support data center expansion [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend is driving a super cycle in commodities, particularly benefiting upstream resources and midstream materials, with the true focus being on the midstream sector [2][14] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" phenomenon is a precursor to debt reduction, indicating that future demand-side policies will be crucial following the recent supply-side adjustments [3][15] - The ROIC-WACC metric is identified as a key indicator for measuring "involution," with industries like coking coal and photovoltaic equipment being classified as "true involution" sectors that are poised for growth [4][16] Group 2 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August 2025, including companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi (computing), Yuandong Biological (pharmaceuticals), and BYD (automotive), among others [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand-side policy implementation and potential liquidity pressures from overseas markets [5][13] - The report notes that the strong exchange rate is expected to support continued export strength, which may exceed market expectations [5][13]

Group 1: Fund Analysis - The public FOF fund scale increased in Q2 2025, with significant growth from major fund companies like Southern, Dongfanghong, and Bosera, while Xingsheng Global remains the largest [7][9] - Over 90% of FOF funds recorded positive returns, with Shenwan Lingshin Zhihua's stable allocation strategy achieving the highest performance over three months [7][10] - Fund managers are optimistic about the equity market, focusing on structural opportunities rather than index performance, with technology growth expected to be a key theme [7][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies to boost consumption and investment, while ensuring employment and price stability [15][16] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the growth target, with the IMF raising China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% [15][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and small businesses to stimulate economic growth [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - In June 2025, the total bond custody volume increased slightly, with insurance companies increasing their holdings in local government bonds while trusts reduced their exposure to exchange-traded bonds [22][24] - Commercial banks and broad-based funds increased their holdings in interest rate bonds, while reducing their investments in certificates of deposit [24][26] - The bond market is expected to face redemption pressure, but the attractiveness of the bond market may support demand from insurance and banking sectors [26] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - WuXi AppTec's H1 2025 revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 20.64% increase, with net profit growing by 101.92% due to asset disposals [28][30] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.3%, 15.3%, and 15.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit expected to grow significantly in 2025 [30][31] - WuXi's strong order backlog of 56.69 billion yuan reflects a 37.2% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand across its business segments [28][30] Group 5: Communication Sector - Weisheng Information reported stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 1.368 billion yuan, up 11.88%, and net profit of 305 million yuan, up 12.24% [32][34] - The company has emphasized shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a commitment to a 40% dividend payout ratio over the next five years [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the total bond custody volume increased less month - on - month. The combined bond custody volume of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House (SHCH) was 171 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan from May 2025, and the incremental custody volume decreased by 0.9 trillion yuan compared to May [4]. - By bond type, interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds increased more month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased month - on - month [4]. - By institution, commercial banks, broad - based funds, and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs; insurance institutions mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [4]. - In July, the bond - holding willingness of broad - based funds may decline marginally, but considering the improved bond - currency cost - effectiveness, allocation funds such as insurance and banks are expected to provide support on the demand side [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Institution - level Bond - holding Changes - Commercial banks in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 622.5 billion yuan (5174.57 billion yuan in May), reduced their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 1.05 billion yuan (5.15 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 147.1 billion yuan (162.1 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Broad - based funds in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 704.8 billion yuan (170 billion yuan in May), increased their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 131.4 billion yuan (45.2 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 450.1 billion yuan (475 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Other institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of treasury bonds and reduced their holdings of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - Insurance institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. - Securities companies in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs [6]. - Overseas institutions in June 2025 reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. 3.2 Leverage and Exchange - level Holdings - In June 2025, the inter - bank leverage ratio rebounded to 107.9% [6]. - In June 2025, trust institutions and others reduced their holdings of bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; securities company proprietary trading and others increased their holdings of convertible bonds; public funds, enterprise annuities, etc. reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [6]. 3.3 Reasons for Bond - holding Changes - In June, the central bank was more willing to maintain liquidity. Coupled with a large maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs, although the monthly issuance of government bonds remained high, the incremental bond custody volume was mainly affected by the maturity of NCDs and decreased overall. On one hand, large - scale banks continued to net - buy short - term treasury bonds, and banks, insurance, etc. mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds under the background of high government bond supply. On the other hand, the central bank conducted two outright reverse - repo operations and renewed 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in June to maintain the money market. Coupled with the maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs exceeding 4 trillion yuan in June, except for insurance institutions, other institutions reduced their holdings of inter - bank NCDs. In addition, as the yield of NCDs declined and the foreign - exchange swap points narrowed, the relative return of overseas institutions investing in NCDs decreased rapidly, and overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [7].