1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "shock" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in November continued to weaken with a supply - demand imbalance, and the market focuses on the subsequent pro - growth policies. The pro - growth policies are expected to be mild and combined with structural adjustment policies. Service consumption and investment may be important pro - growth drivers. The bond market is desensitized to fundamentals, and there is still a risk of TL adjustment [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Continued to Weaken - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8% (previous value 4.9%, expected value 4.96%), the retail sales growth rate was 1.3% (previous value 2.9%, expected value 2.93%), and the cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%, expected value - 2.16%) [9] - The overall economic data in November was similar to the previous few months, with a weakening aggregate and a supply - strong and demand - weak structural problem. Factors such as the decline of previous policy effectiveness, the advancement of anti - involution policies, and the shift of fiscal funds affected the economy [12] 3.2 Demand - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Investment: Cumulative Investment Growth Rate Declined Further - The cumulative fixed - asset investment growth rate from January to November was - 2.6%, and the private investment growth rate was - 5.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [15] - The cumulative growth rate of broad infrastructure was 0.13% from January to November, and the narrow infrastructure growth rate was - 1.1%. In November, the broad infrastructure growth rate was - 11.9%. However, factors favorable to infrastructure investment are accumulating, and it is expected that the infrastructure growth rate will stop falling and stabilize in Q1 next year [18][19] - The real estate data in November continued to weaken. The real estate development investment growth rate from January to November was - 15.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. Future real estate policies will focus on long - term transformation with short - term support [20] - The cumulative manufacturing investment growth rate from January to November was 2.7%, and the November growth rate was - 4.5%. It is expected that the manufacturing investment growth rate will have a low central value, optimized structure, and a low - to - high rhythm next year [26][27] 3.2.2 Consumption: Retail Sales Growth Rate Declined Accelerated - In November, the retail sales growth rate was 1.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%. The decline was due to factors such as poor income expectations, the pre - emptive "Double Eleven", and the decline of the trade - in policy. Service consumption was better than commodity retail [34] - Policy support can drive the retail sales growth rate to recover in Q1 next year, but it will take a long time for the growth rate center to rise [34] 3.3 Production - Side Analysis - In November, the year - on - year industrial added value growth was 4.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.44%, slightly higher than the average of the past three years. The growth rate of service production decreased from 4.6% to 4.2% [35] - The increase in exports offset the weak domestic demand, maintaining the stability of industrial production. However, it is more likely that the production growth rate will gradually decline next year [39] 3.4 Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is desensitized to the weakening economic data. The long - term positive narrative and the difficulty of driving broad - money expectations are the reasons [40] - Institutional behavior led to the significant adjustment of ultra - long bonds. It is expected that TL may challenge the previous low. Suggestions for strategies include waiting for the right time to go long, holding short - hedging strategies, and observing the curve strategy [40][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data growth in November continued to slow down, and the stock market adjusted accordingly. Weak economic data may prompt the acceleration of policy introduction, and attention should be paid to policy changes [2][23]. - The gold price fluctuated slightly and rose, approaching the previous high, with increased intraday volatility. The market is concerned about the upcoming US November non - farm payroll data, and the interest rate cut expectation is fully priced. The overall tone of the Fed officials' speeches is neutral [15]. - The US stock market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with internal differences among Fed officials and concerns about the Fed's independence [21]. - The bond market is dominated by institutional behavior, and it is recommended to focus on the right - side long - buying opportunities [28]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals, such as the supply and demand situation, production data, and policy factors [32][41][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump believes the peace agreement is closer than ever. Gold price fluctuated slightly up, approaching the previous high, with increased intraday volatility. The market focuses on the US November non - farm payroll data, and the interest rate cut expectation is fully priced. Fed officials' speeches are neutral. It is not recommended to chase the high [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are variables in the selection of the new Fed chairman, and internal differences among Fed officials are large. The US stock market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [17][21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The economic data in November continued to weaken, and the stock market adjusted. High - valuation and high - expectation stocks face upward pressure. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [22][23][24]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data in November was weak. The bond market decline was dominated by institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on the right - side long - buying opportunities [25][27][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased. NOPA's crushing data was lower than expected, and the CBOT soybean was weak. Brazilian exports increased, and the sowing was basically completed. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29][32]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profit of starch enterprises remained in a good state, and the CS - C futures spread strengthened slightly. It is expected that the rice - flour spread will continue to fluctuate [33][34]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price was generally stable, and the futures price first fluctuated narrowly and then dived. It is recommended to short 03 and 05 contracts on rallies in the short and medium term and pay attention to the long - buying opportunities for 07 and 09 contracts at low prices in the long term [35][36]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price fluctuated. The building materials demand was weak, but it was not far beyond expectations. The manufacturing demand remained resilient. It is recommended to treat the steel price with a fluctuating mindset [37][41][42]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market was weakly stable. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. It is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent replenishment can support the market [43][44][45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 decreased. The supply pressure of palm oil was obvious. It is recommended to wait for the supply pressure to ease and then consider long - buying [46][47][48]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale mining enterprise in Guinea will resume production. The downstream inventory is high, and the supply surplus pressure remains. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform was officially launched. It is expected that the spot price is difficult to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [52][54]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The power price in Yunnan in 2026 was announced. The inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rallies [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price and the Shanghai lead price fluctuated and declined. The social inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [58][59]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and declined. The domestic zinc demand increased, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks, hold long - spread positions, and maintain the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy [60][63]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The supply surplus of nickel is expected to increase. The short - term disk is expected to be weak at a low level. It is not recommended to chase the short. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Indonesia [64][66]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased. The supply may increase after the resumption of production, and the demand may decline in the off - season. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks in the long term [67][69]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The macro - mid - term support for copper remains, but the short - term expected difference is significant. The short - term spot premium is expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on pullbacks in the mid - term [70][72]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The inventory of tin increased at home and abroad. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [74][75]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The oil price continued to decline. The concern about oversupply depressed the oil price. It is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short term [76][77]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The refinery inventory of asphalt increased, and the social inventory decreased. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. It is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short term [78][79][80]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Two methanol plants in Iran stopped production. The short - term opportunity for methanol is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market negotiation was average, and the basis was strong. The supply - demand pattern improved in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks in the medium - term [82][83]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price fluctuated weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand for spring plowing and the new export quota policy [86][87]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was stable. The pure benzene was in a bottom - grinding stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities for far - month contracts on panic selling [88][90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rebounded. The supply remained high, and the demand was weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - demand changes in 2026 [91][92].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 需求持续走弱，行业亏损程度扩大 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/12/12 当周）： 截至 12 月 12 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 12 元/平方米，环比上周有所下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 19.5 元/平方米，环比上周持平。 能 上周光伏玻璃供给端继续保持稳定，目前国内光伏玻璃在产产能 88680 吨/天，环比持平，产能利用率 67.18%，亦环比持平。预 计本周行业有两座窑炉引头子出玻璃，实际产出将有所增加。随 着厂家毛利率持续下挫，后期不排除多座窑炉预期外冷修或减产 情况的出现。 源 化 工 上周光伏玻璃需求持续走弱，临近年末，行业需求端缩水幅度较 大。终端陆续停工，对组件采购减少，从而光伏玻璃消费量相应 减少。 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续增长，随着需求进一步走弱，供给端 降幅较小，供需矛盾不断加剧。 上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率跌幅进一步扩大，目前毛利率约为 -13.56%。当前天然气陆续开始执行冬气价，成本有所上涨，而 光伏玻璃价格继续下行，行业亏损程度不断加大。 ★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market fluctuated last week, with different sectors contributing to the gains of various indices. The basis of each variety showed different trends, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of inter - period positive spreads. The performance of various quantitative strategies in stock index futures, treasury bonds, and commodity CTA factors was also analyzed, and the performance of tracking strategies was evaluated [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Quantitative Strategy Market Review - The market fluctuated last week. Non - bank and pharmaceutical sectors contributed to the rise of the Shanghai 50 Index, communication and electronics sectors contributed to the rise of the CSI 300 Index, and the electronics sector contributed to the rise of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indices. The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, the basis of IH and IF weakened, and the basis of IC and IM strengthened [3][4]. Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety fluctuated. IH turned to a discount, IF maintained a shallow discount, and IC and IM maintained a deep discount. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of inter - period positive spreads. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy fluctuated last week. The annualized basis rate factor lost 0.4%, the positive spread factor gained 0.1%, and the momentum factor gained 0.0% (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor mainly issued positive spread signals. The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy remained flat last week, and the latest cross - variety signal recommends a 50% position to go long on IC and short on IM, and keep IF/IC positions empty [5][6]. Timing Strategy Tracking - The timing strategy retracted last week. The daily timing strategy for the Shanghai 50 Index made a profit, while the other indices suffered losses. The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 Indices had a profit of 0.5%, a loss of 0.2%, a loss of 0.3%, and a loss of 1.3% respectively last week. The latest timing signal is bearish on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 Indices and bullish on the CSI 1000 Index [7]. Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy Market Review - Last week, all four treasury bond futures varieties rose first and then fell. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were reported at 112.47 yuan, 107.985 yuan, 105.82 yuan, and 102.464 yuan respectively. In terms of the basis of treasury bond futures, the basis declined this week, the IRR continued to rise, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly [42]. Timing Strategy - For the 10 - year treasury bond, in terms of this year's performance, ranked by the Sharpe ratio, the basis factor, risk assets, and member positions had Sharpe ratios of 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively in 2025. For the 5 - year treasury bond, the high - frequency capital flow, intraday volume - price, risk assets, member positions, and basis factor had Sharpe ratios of 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively in 2025. For the 2 - year treasury bond, the high - frequency capital flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member positions had Sharpe ratios of 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively in 2025 [42]. Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was generally weak. Only a few varieties rose, including precious metals, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and copper. Silver rose by more than 10% last week, while most other industrial products fell, with coking coal falling by more than 10%. For commodity factors, most commodity factors rose last week. The value - based and volume - price trend - based factors rose by nearly 2%, and the term structure - based factors rose by more than 1%. Among the basis - based factors, the basis momentum performed well, while the warehouse receipt - based factors had no returns. In general, it is believed that the recent market volatility may continue, but short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term performance ability of factors. There may be a risk of factor return retraction in the near term, but the overall performance of commodity factors is still optimistic in the medium and long term [59]. Tracking Strategy Performance - The CW FT strategy had an annualized return of 9.5%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.64, a Calmar ratio of 1.08, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a return of 1.05% last week, and a return of 5.64% this year. The C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy had an annualized return of 11.7%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.78, a Calmar ratio of 1.74, a maximum drawdown of - 6.72%, a return of 0.55% last week, and a return of 5.34% this year. The Long CW FT & Short CW FT strategy had an annualized return of 12.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.37, a Calmar ratio of 0.93, a maximum drawdown of - 13.07%, a return of - 0.07% last week, and a return of 0.68% this year. The CS XGBoost strategy had an annualized return of 6.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.01, a Calmar ratio of 0.36, a maximum drawdown of - 16.70%, a return of - 0.94% last week, and a return of - 9.15% this year. The RuleBased TS Sharp - combine strategy had an annualized return of 12.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.59, a Calmar ratio of 1.47, a maximum drawdown of - 8.26%, a return of 1.36% last week, and a return of 11.42% this year. The RuleBased TS XGB - combine strategy had an annualized return of 12.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.12, a Calmar ratio of 2.71, a maximum drawdown of - 4.49%, a return of 0.82% last week, and a return of 9.33% this year. The CS strategies, EW combine strategy had an annualized return of 12.8%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.81, a Calmar ratio of 1.73, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a return of 0.06% last week, and a return of - 1.64% this year [60].

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石供应恢复， 氧化铝供应变动不大 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 12 月 14 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿石供应恢复，氧化铝供应变动不大 有 色 金 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。国产矿市场呈现明显的"以矿定产" 特征，春节前夕国产矿生产节奏将保持平稳有序状态。进口方面， 几内亚主流报价稳定于 CIF 71 美元/吨。一季度长单定价预期 CIF 69-70 美元/吨。几内亚大型矿企将于几内亚时间 12 月 13 日 恢复生产，集港与海运同步重启，1-7 月该企发货量约 1700 万湿 吨。期内新到矿石 354.4 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 291.4 万吨， 澳大利亚资源 62.9 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 22 美元/吨，价格明显下行。 属 氧化铝： ...

周度报告-黄金 美联储降息落地，金价震荡收涨 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 2.4%至 4299 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.18%， 通胀预期 2.27%，实际利率上行至 1.91%，美元指数跌 0.6%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 0.63%，人民币走势震荡，沪金折价扩大。 贵 金 属 金价震荡收涨，白银大涨，金银比一度下降至 67，美联储降息 25bp 落地后，市场情绪一度攀升推动金银铜有色金属联袂上涨，但股 债汇市场表现不如大宗商品，周五两位投票反对降息的鹰派票委 发表讲话后，市场风险偏好降温，股市和大宗商品集体回调。本 次会议整体表态没有超预期鹰派，但美联储上调明年的经济增长 预期，点阵图显示 2026、2027 年各有一次降息，未来的降息空间 有限，美联储内部分歧空前加大，后续市场对降息节奏的博弈增 加。同时，市场等待下任美联储人选落地，继哈塞特之后，特朗 普再度表示前美联储理事凯文·沃什当选的可能性位居榜首，不 管是选谁，标准都是满足特朗普的降息倾向。除了降息以外，美 联储开始准备金管理计划维持准备金规模充足，到期再投资也用 来购买短债，12 月 R ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different futures sectors, including "strongly bullish", "bullish", "neutral (sideways)", "bearish", and "strongly bearish" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints The overall market shows structural differentiation. Different futures sectors have different trends, and investors need to combine technical signals and exercise caution. For example, in commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products have different outlooks; in financial futures, stock index futures and treasury bond futures also show different trends [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metal Sector - Gold and palladium in the precious metal sub - sector show bullish signals, while silver and platinum are sideways. In the non - ferrous sub - sector, aluminum, zinc, and aluminum alloy are bullish, nickel is bearish, and the rest are sideways [9]. - For Shanghai copper (CU2601), the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains intact, but there may be short - term adjustments. The resistance on the weekly line is in the range of 93,800 - 94,700 yuan/ton, and the support is around 91,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, rebar and wire rod show bearish signals, and the rest of the black series and European container shipping are sideways [19]. - For rebar (RB2601), the price dropped significantly this week. The MA60 moving average is a pressure level. The price has returned to the downward channel, and the expected upward momentum is limited. The resistance is in the range of 3,200 - 3,250 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sub - sector, fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are bullish, LPG is bearish, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sub - sector, synthetic rubber and ethylene glycol are bullish, and the rest are mostly sideways [29]. - For methanol (MA601), the price was relatively flat this week. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways consolidation state, and long - position holders need to pay attention to position management [33]. 4. Agricultural Product Sector - Peanuts, soybean meal, and live pigs show bullish signals, while palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, red dates, and soybean oil show bearish signals, and the rest are sideways [38]. - For sugar (SR605), the price dropped this week and hit a new low. The short - term price may fluctuate sideways or have a certain upward correction, and investors need to pay attention to position management [43]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, and CSI 500 futures show bullish signals, among which Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 futures show strongly bullish signals, and CSI 1000 is sideways [49]. - For IC CSI 500 futures, the short - term price has some upward momentum, but the medium - term price is expected to be sideways, and the upward space is limited. Investors need to pay attention to position management [51]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures show sideways signals, while 5 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals [56]. - For T 10 - year treasury bond futures, the price is under downward pressure in the short term. The support range is between 107.06 - 107.39, but the support strength is weak. If the price rises above the MA250 moving average, it may enter a high - level sideways state [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.25 million lots and an average daily open interest of 9.98 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +3.95% and -11.29% respectively. Attention should be paid to potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9]. - This week, most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. For varieties with high implied volatility, single - sided risks should be guarded against, and opportunities to short volatility can be considered; for those with low implied volatility, buying options is more cost - effective [2][18]. - Different varieties show different market sentiment in terms of trading volume PCR and open interest PCR, indicating concentrated expectations of either rising or falling [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.25 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.98 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +3.95% and -11.29% respectively [1][9]. - The most actively traded varieties this week included glass (830,000 lots), silver (790,000 lots), and methanol (470,000 lots). The varieties with significant trading volume growth were soybeans No. 2 (+256%), LPG (+191%), and ethylene glycol (+123%); those with significant decline were polysilicon (-72%) and lithium carbonate (-70%) [1][9]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were glass (920,000 lots), soybean meal (850,000 lots), and soda ash (770,000 lots). The varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in open interest were lead (+56%) and p - xylene (+53%) [1][9]. 2. This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 2.1. Underlying Price Changes - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options declined. The varieties with high weekly gains were silver (+8.80%), polysilicon (+7.60%), and lithium carbonate (+6.03%); those with high losses were glass (-5.94%), industrial silicon (-5.20%), and LPG (-4.85%) [2][18]. 2.2. Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 27 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year. The implied volatility of PVC, LPG, and silver increased by 8.46, 6.24, and 4.01 percentage points respectively. Varieties with high implied volatility included silver, PVC, polypropylene, etc.; those with low implied volatility included urea, rapeseed meal, etc. [2][18]. 2.3. Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of cotton, plastic, LPG, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of price decline; the trading volume PCR of aluminum, zinc, gold, etc. was at a one - year low, showing a concentrated expectation of price increase. The open interest PCR of iron ore, soybean meal, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of rapeseed oil, plastic, etc. was at a one - year low, suggesting an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][19]. 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. 3.1. Energy No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.2. Chemical Industry - **PTA**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Caustic Soda**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Glass**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Soda Ash**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.3. Precious Metals No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.4. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Silicomanganese**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.5. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Aluminum**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Palm Oil**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - **Cotton**: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references.

[Table_Summary] ★供应侧复产项目推迟，盘面偏强运行 上周（12/8-12/12）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2512 收盘价环比 +5.4%至 9.56 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+6.9%至 9.70 万元/ 吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.3%至 9.45、9.20 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比分别+1.1%、+1.0%至 8.30、8.78 万元/吨。电 工价差环比走阔 50 元/吨至 2,500 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电 池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比扩大 350 元至 1.15 万元/吨。 宏观面上，中央经济工作会议在部署明年"坚持内需主导，建设 强大国内市场"时称，要优化"两新"政策实施，多位专家表示 2026 年国补额度可能在 2025 年基础上适度增加，动力需求预计 得以支撑。消息面上，近日市场传枧下窝矿山复产因安许证问题 和污水问题而推迟，供应端明显给量前现实侧仍表现较强，SMM 周去库 2133 吨，不过紫金湘源项目于上周点火，12 月预计有 1000-2000 吨 LCE 增量给到市场，去库斜率也将放缓。基 ...