Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an oscillating rating for alumina [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are running weakly, and the supply of alumina has been reduced due to factors such as limited ore supply and production plan adjustments [1][2] - The price of domestic ore has remained stable, but the supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term, and the supply of inland ore further depends on imported ore [1][11] - The spot price of alumina has declined, but the willingness of merchants to ship goods is relatively strong, and the supply of some enterprises has been reduced [2][12] - The demand for alumina at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [12] - The inventory of alumina has increased, and the inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] Summary According to the Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week, but the supply of domestic ore is facing challenges due to environmental inspections, resource integration, and rainfall. The supply of imported ore is also facing some problems, such as low downstream acceptance of the price of Guinean ore. The new arrival of ore during the period was 4.049 million tons, including 2.731 million tons from Guinea and 0.916 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China remained at a relatively high level of $24.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The supply of some enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other places has been reduced due to limited ore supply or production plan adjustment. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity is 97.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with last week, and the operating rate is 84.8%. The domestic and overseas demand for alumina has not changed, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [2][12] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 0.115 million tons compared with last week. The inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221,262 tons, an increase of 45,233 tons compared with last week. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain During the Week - In September 2025, China's alumina export volume was 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.8% [15] - On October 17, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Brazil at an FOB price of $323.06 per ton for the November 2025 shipment [15] - As of October 17, the price of Australian alumina decreased by $5 per ton compared with October 10. The theoretical import profit in the north decreased from $7 per ton in the previous week to - $10 per ton, and the import profit continued to narrow [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report monitors data such as the price of domestic bauxite, the price of imported bauxite, the port inventory of domestic bauxite, the port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, the floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, the price trend of domestic caustic soda, the price trend of domestic steam coal, and the production cost of alumina in various provinces [16][18][20] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report monitors data such as the spot price of alumina in various provinces, the price of imported alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From June to October 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand gap decreased in October [33][40][41] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report monitors data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, the domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, the alumina port inventory, the total domestic social inventory of alumina, the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [43][46][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market continues to be highly volatile in the short - term, and the US dollar index is expected to decline further. The potential liquidity inflection point may have a positive impact on risky assets [33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview for the Week - Market risk appetite fluctuated. Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US stocks rising and A - shares falling. Bond yields mostly declined, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Gold prices soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 20.78, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel [2][5][10] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance. Developed markets' stocks mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7%. Emerging markets' stocks mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.47%. The US government shutdown, tariff risks, and domestic economic data all affected the stock market. The US stock market's volatility is expected to increase, and the domestic stock market has a correction pressure [11][12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.01%. The US government shutdown, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and concerns about the Sino - US tariff negotiation all influenced the bond market. The decline space of US Treasury yields is limited [15][17][18] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Offshore RMB rose 0.26%, the euro rose 0.3%, the pound rose 0.49%, the yen rose 0.38%, the Swiss franc rose 0.79%, the real rebounded 2%, and the Australian dollar, South Korean won, and rand closed higher, while the Canadian dollar, rupee, and Thai baht closed lower [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, hitting a new high. Brent crude oil dropped 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel. The Sino - US trade friction and Fed Chairman Powell's speech affected the commodity market. Gold may face a short - term correction risk [27][28] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The US government shutdown led to the non - release of inflation data. US local banks had a blow - up due to the negative impact of commercial real - estate non - performing assets. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet in a few months. The short - term confrontation between China and the US has cooled down, and the market will continue to be volatile, with the US dollar index expected to decline [33][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's Q3 GDP and the 20th - 23rd 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Tuesday: The Fed holds a payment innovation meeting - Wednesday: UK's September CPI - Thursday: US's September existing - home sales - Friday: US's September CPI, France, Germany, the Eurozone, UK, and US's October manufacturing PMI [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a more defined lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long at low prices. For polysilicon, the spot price in October is expected to remain flat, and it is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [3][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 255 yuan/ton to 8430 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton and 8750 yuan/ton respectively. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 3375 yuan/ton to 52340 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Focuses on Cost Floor, Polysilicon Subject to Large News - Driven Fluctuations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract weakened. Northern large factories resumed production, while some southern silicon factories cut production in advance. It is expected that there will be more significant production cuts at the end of October. The social inventory increased by 1.7 tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.01 tons compared to before the holiday. It is difficult to reduce inventory in November, and 1.5 tons of inventory will be reduced in December [1][11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.99%, the weekly output was 4.63 tons (a decrease of 2.73% month - on - month), and the inventory was 4.18 tons (a decrease of 2.56% month - on - month). The price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract rose. The spot price of first - tier manufacturers' dense material remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that of second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. The spot trading volume was low after the holiday. The production volume in October is expected to be about 13.8 tons, and it will significantly decrease from November to December. The factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 25.3 tons (an increase of 1.3 tons month - on - month), and the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 22.2 tons (an increase of 1.4 tons month - on - month). The spot price is expected to remain flat [2][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The prices of some models decreased slightly. The actual final output in October may be higher than expected. As of October 16, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 17.31GW (an increase of 0.53GW month - on - month). The price is under pressure, and production cuts are needed to support it [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price trend was divided. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells remained flat, while that of G12R battery cells decreased to 0.285 yuan/W. As of October 13, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.63GW (an increase of 0.66GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 58.65GW (a decrease of 1.5GW month - on - month) [15] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. As of October 13, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 34.2GW (an increase of 0.6GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The demand from November to December may not be optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to weak fundamentals and poor macro - sentiment, the futures market weakened this week. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [3][17] - **Polysilicon**: It is maintained that the spot price will not fall in October. The market has rebounded significantly. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton [3][17] 4. Hot News Summary - GCL Technology achieved a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [18] - In Gansu, the mechanism electricity prices for wind and solar power are the same at 0.1954 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume of 830 million kWh [18] - In Xinjiang, the mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 18.5 billion kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 3.6 billion kWh [19] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [20][24][30] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31][32][33] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [35][37][38] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [46][49][52] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [54][57][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current round of trade frictions, the probability of the US making concessions is higher, but the process is full of twists and turns. The impact of recent trade conflicts on risk appetite is not one - way. The Fourth Plenary Session may affect market risk appetite. If policies are positive, it may impact the bond market. Economic data is weak, which is favorable for the bond market, but policy may cause disturbances [2] - In terms of strategies, for the next week, short - term trading should adopt a cautious approach; the short - hedge strategy should be on the sidelines; and the curve - flattening strategy can be considered if optimistic about the bond market [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From October 13th to 19th, Treasury bond futures fluctuated upwards. By the close on October 17th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.775, 108.265, and 115.730 yuan respectively, up 0.006, 0.060, 0.165, and 1.250 yuan from last weekend [1][11][32] 1.2 Next Week's Views - Sino - US trade relations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and economic data will affect the bond market. Short - term trading should be cautious. The US is more likely to make concessions in trade frictions, but there are twists. The Fourth Plenary Session may affect market risk appetite. Economic data is weak, favorable for the bond market, but policies may cause disturbances [2][14][15] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 47 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 450.661 billion yuan and a net financing of 2.0189 billion yuan. 21 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 32.301 billion yuan and a net financing of - 1.9781 billion yuan. 563 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 729.53 billion yuan and a net financing of 224.66 billion yuan [20] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of October 17th, most Treasury bond yields declined. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year CDB bonds also changed [24] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - By the close on October 17th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures increased. The trading volumes and open interests of different - term Treasury bond futures also changed compared to last week [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - Relevant data on the IRR and basis of the CTD bonds of Treasury bond futures are presented in the charts, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [37] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of October 17th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts changed compared to last weekend [42] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of funds. Repo trading volume decreased, and funding rates declined [46][49][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield declined slightly. Sino - US trade conflicts escalated, and US regional banks' problems led to a decline in market risk appetite [55] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [59] 7. Investment Recommendations - Due to many uncertainties next week, short - term trading should adopt a cautious approach [2][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), the trading activity in the commodity options market declined slightly. The average daily trading volume was 6.55 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.33 million lots, with环比 changes of -4.94% and -3.47% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][6]. - Most underlying futures of commodity options fell this week, with precious metals and new - energy metals showing relatively high weekly gains, while some varieties like glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had significant weekly losses. The implied volatility of most commodity options increased this week. Different varieties have different implied volatility levels compared to the past year, presenting different trading opportunities. The options market sentiment varies among different varieties, with some showing strong short - term bearish sentiment and others showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][15][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 6.55 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.33 million lots, with环比 changes of -4.94% and -3.47% respectively. Actively traded varieties included silver, polysilicon, and glass. Four varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, while some varieties like rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and ferrosilicon had significant trading volume declines. High - open - interest varieties were soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and some varieties like p - xylene, LPG, and ethylene glycol had rapid open - interest growth [1][6]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options fell this week, with 44 varieties closing lower. Precious metals and new - energy metals had high weekly gains, such as gold (+10.90%), silver (+10.53%), polysilicon (+6.06%), and lithium carbonate (+3.95%); varieties with high weekly losses included glass (-9.28%), crude oil (-6.23%), and fuel oil (-5.54%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of most commodity options increased this week. Fourteen varieties' current implied volatility was above the 60th percentile of the past year. Varieties with high implied volatility included silver, gold, etc., and investors are advised to beware of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility opportunities; varieties with low implied volatility included nickel, pulp, etc., where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance [2][15]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - For some varieties like eggs, soybean meal, etc., the trading volume PCR is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. For varieties like gold, polysilicon, etc., the trading volume PCR is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. For some varieties like silver, ferrosilicon, etc., the open - interest PCR is at a historical high, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment, while for varieties like urea, glass, etc., the open - interest PCR is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. 3.3.1 Energy - Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, fuel oil, and natural rubber are presented, including price changes, implied volatility, implied volatility环比 changes, historical percentile of implied volatility, open - interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and expiration time of near - month options [17]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Key data and related charts of PTA are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][28][29]. - **Caustic Soda**: Key data and related charts of caustic soda are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][38][39]. - **Glass**: Key data and related charts of glass are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data and related charts of soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][53][54]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Key data and related charts of precious metals such as silver and gold are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][61][62]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Key data and related charts of iron ore are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][69][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: Key data and related charts of silicomanganese are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][78][79]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Key data and related charts of copper are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][86][87]. - **Aluminum**: Key data and related charts of aluminum are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][94][95]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Key data and related charts of soybean meal are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][100][102]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data and related charts of palm oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][107][108]. - **Cotton**: Key data and related charts of cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [19][115][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the destocking rhythm accelerated, which supported the price and led to a rebound in the market [1][10][11] - In the future, the fundamentals of continuous destocking during the peak season support the price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disturbances. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking and the volume and price in the spot market. In terms of strategies, short - term interval operations are recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities after the peak demand within the year are worth noting. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [2][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Destocking Acceleration and Warehouse Receipt Cancellation, Lithium Price Breaks through the Oscillation Range - Last week (10/13 - 10/17), lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. LC2510's closing price increased by 3.6% to 75,300 yuan/ton, and LC2511's increased by 4.1% to 75,700 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3% to 73,400 and 71,100 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5%. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate slightly widened to 270 yuan/ton [10][11] - Last week, warehouse receipts were continuously cancelled and taken out of storage, with a week - on - week reduction of 12,000 tons to 30,700 tons. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 132,700 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. The continuous improvement of explicit inventory data supported the price, and the market sentiment recovered [1][11] 3.2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining: Its subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days, and it is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [13] - Beijing Easpring signed an MoU with AMG to purchase lithium hydroxide. The cooperation shows their commitment to building a local battery supply chain, and they will work together to ensure the certification of AMG's production base and negotiate a binding purchase agreement [13] - Hainan Mining's Mali Bugoni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of lithium concentrate products on October 14. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for the company's lithium salt processing project [14] - Tianqi Lithium: The 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard on October 17, 2025. The company will continue to optimize the project for continuous and stable production [14] 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remain Stable - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 846 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 US dollars or 0.8% [11] 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Stabilizes and Rebounds - The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [10][11] 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes of Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Surge - The spot average prices of ternary materials 523, 622, and 811 increased by 9.6%, 3.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The spot average price of lithium cobaltate increased by 14.6% [11] 3.3.4. Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US government shutdown, regional bank credit crises, trade frictions, and seasonal changes in commodity markets. Market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends and risks [15][23][28]. - For financial assets, gold is in a strong - rising state due to risk - aversion, while the dollar is under pressure, and the stock market shows different degrees of weakness. For commodities, the supply and demand of different products vary, and price trends are also diverse [15][20][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2025 fiscal deficit decreased by $41 billion to $1.775 trillion. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50bp in October due to the US government shutdown and regional bank credit crises, driving gold prices to break through $4300. Silver's squeeze pressure eases, and gold is in a strong - rising trend. [13][15] - Investment advice: Gold prices are in a strong - volatile state at high levels, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US agricultural minister is consulting with South American countries on soybean crushing. Trump will meet with Putin in about two weeks. US regional bank stocks tumbled, putting pressure on the dollar. [17][18][20] - Investment advice: The dollar is bearish in the short term [21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Milan hopes to cut interest rates by 50bp this month. Two US regional banks have credit problems, triggering a sell - off. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has increased again. [22][23] - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether credit concerns continue to ferment [24]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In the first three quarters, industrial enterprises' procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The UK included several Chinese enterprises in the entity list, affecting the A - share market. [25][26] - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan on the day. Trade frictions continue, and the bond market environment is more favorable than in Q3. Long positions can be held, but chasing long positions needs to be cautious. [28][29] - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and chasing long positions needs to be cautious. There will be opportunities to buy long positions at low levels after the new regulations on fund fees are implemented [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in Changzhi market is stable. After the holiday, the coking coal futures rebounded. In the short term, the supply recovers, and the demand is okay, with the futures oscillating. [30] - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal futures will oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.86% month - on - month. The US soybean crushing in September reached a record high, and the soybean oil inventory decreased. The oil market lacks clear guidance and is expected to oscillate. [31] - Investment advice: It is recommended to buy palm oil long positions at low levels [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 15, the cumulative inspection of Xinjiang cotton increased by 124% year - on - year. The cotton picking in Xinjiang has passed the halfway mark, but the snow and rain in northern Xinjiang have slowed down the progress. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are under pressure in the short term. [33][34][35] - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, Sino - US game progress, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 16, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 17 yuan/ton, 52 yuan/ton, 85 yuan/ton, and 76 yuan/ton respectively. The opening rate of starch enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased against the season. [36] - Investment advice: It is recommended to look at narrowing the spot rice - flour price difference in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real fundamentals is slow, the futures rice - flour price difference of the 11 - contract may still have room for upward repair [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of October 10, 2025, the corn inventory in the northern four ports increased by 138,000 tons week - on - week, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port changed. Corn futures rebounded slightly, but the price is expected to fall later. [37][38] - Investment advice: Low - risk preference investors can stop losses on short positions opportunistically, and long positions should wait for opportunities [39]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September 2025, South Korea's coal imports were 11.2241 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and an 18.5% year - on - year increase. After the National Day, the coastal coal consumption is high, and the coal price is expected to be strong before mid - November. [40] - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to be strong before mid - November [40]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A steel mill in France shut down its blast furnace due to a fire. The iron ore price is in an oscillating state. The molten iron is expected to decline in November, and the ore price will continue to oscillate weakly. [41] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel mill's inventory and profit. The ore price will continue to oscillate weakly [42]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujubes in Xinjiang have entered the drying period, and merchants have gone to the producing areas to purchase. The futures price of jujubes has risen, and the physical inventory has decreased. It is in the early stage of procurement, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43][44] - Investment advice: Wait and see. Pay attention to the price game in the producing areas and downstream consumption [44]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. As of October 16, the inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the hot - rolled coil inventory increased. The steel price is supported by inventory reduction, but the rebound is limited. [45][46] - Investment advice: Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [47]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 15, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.09/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased. The Shanghai lead futures may oscillate upward in the short term. [48] - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, take profits on previous long positions in time. For arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads and short - term internal - external reverse spreads [48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 15, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $139.83/ton. The LME inventory decreased. The zinc market oscillates, and the export window is basically closed. [49] - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Beijing Easpring signed an MOU with AMG for lithium hydroxide procurement. Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate products were shipped. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. [51][53] - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices and the reverse - spread opportunity of LC2511 - 2512 [53]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Only 10% of Indonesian mining enterprises understand ESG. The global nickel inventory has increased significantly, and the price oscillates above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels. [54][55] - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, and speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of October 16, the weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased by 1.23% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased. The domestic commercial volume may decrease next week. [56][57] - Investment advice: Pay attention to whether the external market stabilizes [57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 16, the CEA closing price was 53.99 yuan/ton, a 2.58% decrease. The carbon market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [58] - Investment advice: The CEA will oscillate weakly in the short term [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of October 10, the US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The mid - term trend is bearish, but the short - term downward pressure is not large. The low temperature in November in the US and the insufficient European inventory support the near - term price. [60][61] - Investment advice: Wait and see [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On October 16, the PX price was weak. The domestic PX operating rate is stable, and the short - term performance will oscillate weakly following the oil price. [63][64] - Investment advice: The PX will oscillate weakly in the short - term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream of PTA is relatively calm, the polyester inventory is healthy, and the PTA supply - demand contradiction is not large. The short - term price fluctuation mainly comes from the oil price. [66] - Investment advice: The PTA will oscillate weakly in the short - term [67]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The domestic methanol production profit shows different performances, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The market focus is on import - related games. [69][70] - Investment advice: Wait and see [71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the styrene production decreased, and the operating rate decreased. The production profit has decreased, and the inventory accumulation speed may slow down. [72][73] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the short - position stop - loss rhythm, and the market will oscillate [74]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price is basically stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The pulp supply - demand is not good, and the upward space of the futures price is limited. [75][76] - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has both rises and falls. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is limited. The caustic soda market will oscillate in the short term. [77][78] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market will oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price fluctuates slightly. The operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply pressure is still large, and the demand is pessimistic. The PVC will oscillate weakly in the short term. [79][80][81] - Investment advice: The PVC will oscillate weakly in the short term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips is mostly stable, and some are slightly increased. The production reduction of bottle chips has achieved certain results, but the supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter. [82][83] - Investment advice: Pay attention to when the factories resume production and the supply - demand change [83]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 16, the soda ash inventory increased. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The soda ash price will be under pressure in the medium term. [84][85] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices in the medium term and pay attention to new capacity investment [85]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of October 16, the float glass inventory increased. The terminal demand improvement is limited, and the short - term inventory may continue to accumulate. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of long glass and short soda ash. [86][87] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of long glass and short soda ash [87]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The freight volume of the Port of Los Angeles is expected to decline in September and October. Some shipping companies have lowered their quotes, and some have issued price - increase letters in November. The 10 - contract settlement price is likely to be higher than 1100, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract after the callback. [88][89] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract after the callback [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic inflation shows a divergent trend, with CPI falling and PPI rising, indicating a marginal improvement in the domestic price situation. However, the credit demand of the private sector remains weak, and attention should be paid to the possible slowdown of deposit transfer [1][16]. - The labor market in the United States is weakening due to government job cuts during the shutdown, leading to a downward trend in the US dollar index [2][21]. - The trade situation is generally neutral to positive for the bond market. Long positions can be held, but chasing long positions requires caution as the factors driving the bond market to strengthen significantly have not yet emerged [3][30]. - The NOPA September soybean crushing report is better than expected, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has changed little [4]. - The nickel ore price is strong, and there are disturbances in supply. The API US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and the oil price is weak [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that labor demand has generally weakened, and overall economic activity has changed little. The US government continues to be shut down, which supports the gold price. However, after the silver squeeze ends, precious metals may face a downward risk [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price fluctuations are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In September, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and the social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [14][16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct operations in Venezuela. The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has changed little, and employment has remained stable. The Trump administration may cut more than 10,000 federal government jobs, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will weaken in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little, and tariffs have pushed up prices. The selection of the Fed chairman is in a critical stage, and Fed official Milan expects two more interest rate cuts this year [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: The threat of tariffs has not been completely eliminated. In the short term, pay attention to the negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The September financial data is basically in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a net injection of 435 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The trade situation is generally neutral to positive for the bond market, and long positions can be held, but chasing long positions requires caution [28][30]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and chasing long positions requires caution. After the new regulations on fund fees are implemented, there will be opportunities to lay out long positions at low prices [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is oscillating. After the holiday, the coking coal futures price has rebounded, but the spot price is weak. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the customs clearance at the Mongolian border port has returned to normal [31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the fundamentals of coking coal are weak, and attention should be paid to subsequent demand [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA September soybean crushing report is better than expected, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has changed little [34]. - Investment advice: The prices of domestic and foreign futures will temporarily remain oscillating. Continue to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the weather in the Brazilian production area [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.17% month - on - month. The oil market continued to oscillate yesterday [36]. - Investment advice: In the future, there is still no obvious driving force for the oil market. At the current price, consider laying out long positions at low prices [37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Due to continuous rainfall, the opening time of the first sugar factory in Yunnan is slightly delayed. The impact of floods in the main sugar - producing states in India needs to be evaluated, and institutions are cautious about the output. The cumulative sugarcane yield in central and southern Brazil from April to September decreased by 6.5% year - on - year [38][40][41]. - Investment advice: Affected by the weak external market, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is hovering around 5400 yuan. Considering the reduction of import pressure in the fourth quarter and the possible increase in production costs in the new season, the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [42]. 3.2.5 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Hebei Province may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production for leading steel enterprises. The average working hours and start - up rate of construction machinery in September decreased year - on - year. From October 1 - 12, the retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars showed different trends [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: In the short term, treat the steel price with a weak - oscillation mindset, go short lightly on rebounds, or wait for the steel price to fall [47]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of corn starch enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [48]. - Investment advice: Continue to look at narrowing the spot corn - starch price difference in the long - term. If the deterioration of the actual fundamentals is slow, the futures corn - starch price difference of the 11 - contract may still have room for upward repair [48]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is temporarily stable. The red dates in the Xinjiang production area are in the drying period and have not been harvested. The spot prices in the north - south distribution areas are stable, and downstream customers purchase as needed [49][50]. - Investment advice: At present, the purchase price in the production area is not representative, and it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the price game and purchase progress in the production area [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is running weakly and steadily. The 11 - contract of corn futures has rebounded to be basically at par with the FOB price at the northern port. The spot selling pressure will continue to be released, and the futures price is expected to be stronger than the spot price [51]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see, but closely monitor market sentiment. It is not recommended to enter long positions for a rebound too early [52]. 3.2.9 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The international steam coal price is firm on October 15. After the National Day holiday, the coal price in coastal areas has risen significantly. With the approaching cold wave in the north, the coal price is expected to remain strong before mid - November [53]. - Investment advice: With the approaching cold wave in the north, the coal price is expected to remain strong before mid - November [53]. 3.2.10 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A Ukrainian mining group has restarted two new mines. The finished steel price has been falling due to inventory accumulation, and the black metal market is weak. However, the raw material prices remain relatively strong in the short term as steel mills have not reduced production. It is expected that iron production may be reduced in November [54]. - Investment advice: It is expected that iron production will remain at 2.4 million tons in October and may be reduced in November. The raw material market is weak, and when the downward trend will start needs further observation [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.48 per ton. The Shanghai lead price oscillated upward yesterday, mainly driven by the rebound of the external market. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. The Shanghai lead price may oscillate upward in the short term [56]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner. For arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads for the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 14, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $87.22 per ton. The industrial metal market was weak yesterday, and the zinc price declined. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic export window closed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to medium - term positive spreads and internal - external positive spreads [57][58]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading, and take profit on positive - spread positions in batches at low prices [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon from first - tier manufacturers remains at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers is 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to increase. The demand for battery cells still has support in October. The component price may rise, but the terminal demand may decline [60][61]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies is slower than expected, but it may be too early to say they have failed. It is expected that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider going long lightly on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity between PS2511 and PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas has decreased. The start - up rate of industrial silicon plants in the north has increased, while that in the south may decrease in late October. The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of weak balance [64]. - Investment advice: Although industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is more likely to have a higher winning rate to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions requires caution [65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - DKFT's nickel ore production in the third quarter of 2025 reached 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter, and the cost of smelting is increasing. The refined nickel inventory may accumulate in the fourth quarter, but the downside space of the nickel price is limited [66][67]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions at low prices after the macro - risk stabilizes [67][68]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Aurubis is in consultation with the US on a new copper smelter. Tongling Nonferrous Metals plans to upgrade and expand its copper anode slime treatment system. The La Granja copper project in Peru is advancing. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and may rise after the macro - uncertainty decreases [69][70][71][72]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, go long at low prices. For arbitrage, wait and see [72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia is considering formulating a reserve price for key minerals and providing funds for new rare - earth projects. CATL and JD Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand may decline at the end of the year [73][75]. - Investment advice: The lithium price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity between LC2511 and 2512 [75]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EU secondary sanctions against Russia affect domestic refineries. Taicang Port charges a special port fee of 400 yuan/ton for US - controlled or - operated ships. The market is in a period of high uncertainty [76][77]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and the oil price is weak [5][79]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port has decreased slightly. The non - integrated load of styrene has decreased, and the demand has resilience. However, the inventory level is still high compared with the historical average, and the upward driving force of styrene is limited [81][82]. - Investment advice: The driving force of the pure - benzene - styrene industrial chain is weak, and it will be under pressure before the oil end provides support [83]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory has decreased slightly. The decrease in inventory is mainly due to the suppression of imports caused by factors such as port policies. The market expects that the issues related to Iranian goods and US ships can be resolved, but the import cost will increase [84][85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see as the probability of the futures price falling further in the short term is low [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is flexibly adjusted. The supply has decreased due to equipment maintenance and power - related issues, and the demand has changed little. The price shows a differentiated trend [87][88]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is weakening, and it is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price has rebounded. The domestic PX start - up rate is stable, and the supply has no major unexpected fluctuations. The PX price will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short term [89][90]. - Investment advice: The PX price will oscillate weakly in the short term [91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the demand is pessimistic due to Indian anti - dumping. The PVC price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [92][93]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and the downside space is limited [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is mainly stable, with individual prices slightly increasing. The futures price of pulp is oscillating. The supply and demand of pulp are not good, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [94]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures price is relatively strong recently, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space is limited [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has decreased, and the spot basis is weak. The downstream polyester inventory is healthy, and the short - term probability of significant production reduction is low. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not large, and the short - term driving force is insufficient. The oil price is the main source of price fluctuations [96]. - Investment advice: The PTA price will oscillate weakly in the short term [97]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continues to decrease. The polyester raw material price has fallen, and the bottle - chip factories have lowered their quotations. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent at present, but it may accumulate in the fourth quarter [98][99]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to when the factories will resume production. The supply

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical sector performed poorly in September, with most products falling by around 4%. The overall decline indicates worsening supply - demand contradictions. After the National Day holiday, the sector remained in a downward trend, especially upstream raw material prices, mainly due to Trump's tariff threats. Oil price stability will be crucial in curbing the downward trend [2][10]. - The overall inventory of chemical products is high, with EB, urea, soda ash, propylene, and methanol having particularly high inventory levels. EB's inventory worsened, with the inventory percentile rising from 206% in August to 313% in September. Soda ash, urea, and bottle chips showed marginal inventory improvements. However, due to the high overall inventory, the impact on prices is limited. Only a decrease in supply can drive inventory back to normal levels [2][10]. - Most chemical products have low profit margins, with only coal - based chemicals maintaining relatively high profits due to falling coal prices. Profit repair usually lags behind inventory repair. In the current situation of tariff - related raw material price collapses, profit repair, especially for oil - based chemicals, may occur. If profit repair happens before inventory regression, it may exacerbate supply - demand contradictions [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 9 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - In September, except for glass, all other chemical products in the sector declined, with most falling by about 4%. After the National Day, the sector continued to decline, and upstream raw material prices dropped significantly due to tariff threats. Oil price stability is important for curbing the decline [2][10]. - High inventory levels are widespread, with some products' inventory worsening and others improving marginally. Only supply reduction can drive inventory back to normal [2][10]. - Most products have low profit margins, and coal - based chemicals have high profits due to coal price drops. Profit repair is slower than inventory repair, and early profit repair may worsen supply - demand issues [11]. 3.2 Chemical Monthly Spread Arbitrage Focus - **Urea**: The 2601 - 2605 reverse - spread strategy is recommended to stop - profit and exit. The strategy has performed well, with the 1 - 5 spread weakening to - 70 to - 80 yuan/ton. Factors such as potential demand release, export expectation changes, and valuation suggest it's time to consider exiting [20][21]. - **PX**: The 11 - 1 monthly positive - spread strategy is recommended to be maintained. Although PTA maintenance in September affected the near - month PX balance, the impact has been digested. With expected PTA load recovery and downstream inventory reduction, the positive - spread structure is likely to continue [24]. 3.3 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Focus - **Glass - Soda Ash**: The strategy of going long FG2601 and short SA2601 is recommended to continue. Reasons include potential real - estate policy support for glass, high soda ash supply, and weakening photovoltaic glass demand, which will negatively impact soda ash demand [27]. - **Short - Fiber - Bottle Chip**: The strategy of widening the PF - PR spread on dips is recommended to continue. The short - fiber supply has limited growth potential, while the bottle - chip supply may face pressure. Short - fiber is in a consumption season, and the tariff - related spread narrowing is expected to reverse [32].