Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic focus is on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, with a one-month outlook remaining unchanged[5] - The manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points[19] - During the National Day holiday, daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively[19] Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.51% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49%[3] - Coal futures increased by 2.42%, while iron ore futures decreased by 0.38%[3] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products is at 1.85%, and the 7-day annualized yield for Yu'ebao dropped by 4 basis points to 1.05%[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[7] - Stocks are overweight due to the focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies[5] - Bonds and currency are underweight, with yields expected to fluctuate around 2%[5] Market Trends - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.26%[3] - The overall performance of A-shares shows a divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks this week[13] - The VIX index increased to 21.66, indicating heightened market volatility[17]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of better performance compared to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [1][34]. Core Insights - The domestic tourism market saw record high travel numbers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with 888 million domestic trips and total spending of 809 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0% in spending [7][19]. - Cross-border travel is experiencing a resurgence, with a significant increase in both inbound and outbound travel, indicating a recovery trend in the tourism sector [3][19]. - The report highlights a shift towards long-distance and immersive travel experiences, with deep travel orders increasing by 3 percentage points compared to last year [18][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lingnan Holdings, Changbai Mountain, and Huangshan Tourism for their strong operational performance and growth potential. Additionally, Jinjiang Hotels is favored due to the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [3][26]. - The growth in cross-border travel is expected to boost airport duty-free sales, with new policies on city duty-free and outbound tax refunds contributing to incremental growth. Companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing are recommended [3][26]. Domestic Travel Insights - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays saw 888 million domestic trips, with daily average spending down by 13% to 911.04 CNY. The total expenditure reached 809 billion CNY, with a daily average increase of 1.0% [7][19]. - High travel volumes were recorded, with over 2.4 billion cross-regional movements, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [7][10]. Key Attractions and Events - Major tourist attractions maintained high visitor numbers, with Changbai Mountain receiving 221,700 visitors, and Jiuzhaigou welcoming 305,700 visitors, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.39% [14][20]. - Cultural events such as the "Thousand Years of Love" performances saw record attendance, with nearly 3 million visitors during the holiday period [20][21]. Cross-Border Travel Trends - A total of 16.34 million inbound and outbound travelers were recorded during the holidays, with a daily average of 2.04 million, representing an 11.5% year-on-year increase [19][21]. - Popular outbound destinations include East Asia and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in European travel orders [19][21].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data and market sentiment, alongside the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting in China, which will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, supported by positive domestic PMI data and expectations surrounding the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The report highlights a potential increase in foreign capital inflows in the fourth quarter, which could support the A-share market [4][2] - The core investment direction is likely to remain focused on technology assets in the near term [4][2] October Stock Picks - The October stock picks include: - China Southern Airlines (Transportation) - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (Transportation) - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (Chemicals) - Yake Technology (Chemicals) - CATL (Electric New Energy) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Jinghe Integrated (Electronics) - Shenzhen South Circuit (Electronics) - GoerTek (Electronics) - Jieshun Technology (Computers) [9][10] September Performance Review - The September stock portfolio outperformed the market, with notable monthly returns exceeding 30% for CATL and Zhaoyi Innovation, and an absolute return of 4.64%, outperforming the market benchmark by 1.44 percentage points [5][6] Transportation Sector: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines is a leading airline service provider with a significant market share and a robust hub network centered in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 174.22 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.94% year-on-year growth [11][12] - The airline industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a projected domestic passenger transport volume of 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase [12][13] Transportation Sector: COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers - The company reported a 44.05% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 10.775 billion yuan, with a net profit of 825 million yuan, marking a 13.08% increase [14][15] - The demand for specialized vessels remains strong, particularly in the automotive shipping segment, which saw a 439.87% increase in revenue [15][16] Chemicals Sector: Tongkun Co., Ltd. - The company experienced an 8.41% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 44.158 billion yuan, with a notable decline in polyester filament prices due to fluctuating oil prices [16][17] - The gross profit margin improved to 6.76%, reflecting a 0.57 percentage point increase year-on-year [17][18] Chemicals Sector: Yake Technology - The company reported steady revenue growth driven by LNG and electronic materials, with a gross profit margin of 31.82% in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The electronic materials segment saw a 15.37% year-on-year revenue increase, with significant contributions from semiconductor chemical materials [20][21] New Energy Sector: CATL - CATL is projected to achieve a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.01% increase year-on-year, with a total revenue of 362.013 billion yuan [23][24] - The company maintains a leading position in the global battery market, with a 37.9% market share in 2024 [24][25] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company reported an 8.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 2.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a 24.39% increase [26][27] - The opening of a city duty-free store is expected to enhance customer flow and boost related tourism industry growth [27][28] Electronics Sector: Jinghe Integrated - The company achieved a 28% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, totaling 9.249 billion yuan, with a net profit of 533 million yuan, marking a 152% increase [29][30] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and upgrading technology processes to maintain competitive advantages [30][31] Electronics Sector: Shenzhen South Circuit - The company reported a 25.63% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 10.453 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan [32][33] - The PCB business saw a 29.21% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by demand in communication and data center sectors [33][34]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI applications with the release of Sora 2.0, which enhances monetization pathways and introduces social attributes to boost user growth [2][4]. - The collaboration between Open AI and major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to drive demand for AI infrastructure, reinforcing the growth certainty of the computing power industry [5][6]. Industry Performance - The report provides a summary of industry performance, indicating that the non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise of 3.22%, while the telecommunications sector experienced a decline of 1.83% [3]. Key Focus Areas - The release of Sora 2.0 marks a pivotal moment for AI applications, as it not only improves technical aspects but also opens new advertising revenue channels through social media integration [4]. - Open AI's strategic partnerships with Samsung and SK Hynix for data center projects and with AMD for GPU deployment are expected to significantly enhance AI infrastructure capabilities [5][6]. - The shift in focus from training to inference in AI infrastructure is noted, with Sora 2.0's social features likely to increase user engagement and demand for computing resources [6].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,623, up 1.9% for the day and 32.7% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index increased by 2.0%, with a YTD growth of 37.5% [2] - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.5%, showing a YTD increase of 17.4% [2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices reached US$3,834 per ounce, up 2.0% for the day and 46.1% YTD [3] - Brent Crude oil fell to US$68 per barrel, down 3.5% for the day and 6.1% YTD [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remained stable at 2,266, with a significant YTD increase of 127.3% [3] Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits surged by 20.4% YoY in August 2025, reversing a 1.5% decline in July [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a rollout of RMB500 billion in new policy-based financial tools to stimulate investment [6] - The new financial tools are expected to leverage 3-5 times, potentially boosting investment by RMB1.5-2.5 trillion, equivalent to 2.9-4.9% of fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [34] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of brain-computer interface (BCI) technologies entering clinical and industrial phases due to supportive policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration [11][12] - Collaboration between Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA in the Physical AI sector aims to enhance industrial applications and reduce development cycles for embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [14][15] Summary by Sections Industry Developments - The National Medical Insurance Administration has expedited the coding process for innovative medical consumables, including brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, and artificial hearts, facilitating their entry into clinical use [11][12] - The BCI market is witnessing a surge in policy support, with the establishment of independent billing items for BCI technologies, laying the groundwork for future commercialization [12][13] Company Dynamics - Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA's partnership will integrate NVIDIA's Physical AI software stack into Alibaba's AI platform, providing comprehensive services for data processing, simulation, and model training [14][15] - The collaboration signifies a shift from hardware procurement to building a software ecosystem, enhancing capabilities in advanced applications like autonomous driving [17] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the BCI and Physical AI sectors include Dineike, Xilinmen, Zhongke Information, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Suochen Technology [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of AI applications is approaching a critical turning point, with a focus on domestic computing power and rapidly advancing application verticals [6][7][8] - The demand for AI applications is reflected in the significant increase in Tokens consumption, indicating a rapid expansion of AI application needs across various sectors such as AI programming, AI multimodal, AI advertising, AI education, and AI healthcare [7][8] - The report highlights the strong performance of the overseas computing power chain, with a 255% increase since April 9, 2025, while domestic computing power, particularly the Huawei chain, has seen a more modest increase of 71% [9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.05% to 13479.43 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-bank financials increased by 3.84%, and metals by 3.78%, while coal and oil sectors experienced declines [4] Industry Focus - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the domestic computing power and AI application sectors, particularly those related to Huawei's computing power and software chains, which are expected to yield favorable performance in the near term [9] - The AI application business model is transitioning from concept validation to revenue generation, with a clear need for established overseas business models to guide domestic market development [7][8]

Group 1 - The commercialization of AI applications is approaching a critical turning point, driven by the maturation of underlying technology and the validation of business models [8][23][24] - The efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AI computing power have significantly improved, with the cost of inference for AI models dropping dramatically, providing economic support for commercialization [9][20] - The capabilities of large models have reached commercial standards, with advancements in multi-turn dialogue, long-term memory, and multi-modal perception, exemplified by models like GPT-5 [19][11][12] Group 2 - The demand for AI applications is rapidly expanding, as indicated by the significant increase in token consumption, which reflects the growing commercial value of AI across various sectors [24][26][28] - AI programming has emerged as a leading area for commercialization, with notable advancements and user growth in tools like GitHub Copilot and Cursor, indicating a clear path to revenue generation [28][29][49] - AI multi-modal applications, particularly in visual content generation, are becoming commercially viable, with companies like Kuaishou and Meitu demonstrating significant revenue growth [33][35] Group 3 - AI is reshaping the advertising value chain, enhancing return on investment (ROI) through improved user insights and targeted advertising strategies [39][40] - AI-driven enterprise services are catalyzing performance across various sectors, with companies like Salesforce and Palantir reporting substantial revenue growth attributed to AI integration [44][45] - The education sector is experiencing a transformation through AI, with personalized learning solutions driving user engagement and revenue growth for platforms like Duolingo [46][49] Group 4 - The healthcare industry is leveraging AI for precise diagnostics and accelerated drug development, with companies like Tempus achieving significant revenue increases through AI applications [51][52] - The current AI application market is influenced by overseas business models, with a focus on sectors that have demonstrated clear revenue validation, such as AI programming and AI healthcare [53][54]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction volume has shown a mixed trend, with new housing sales area increasing month-on-month but declining year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions have improved slightly [3][6] - The Shanghai "Good House" standard has been implemented, which is expected to enhance the quality of new housing products and improve living experiences for buyers [3] - The overall market remains under pressure due to declining prices, rising inventory, and weak consumer confidence, despite some signs of recovery in transaction volumes [7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 20-26, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 21,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% [16][18] - The new housing sales area was 2.299 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [25][17] - The inventory of new housing in 12 cities was 11,434 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [41][47] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,761.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 57.2% and a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [61][67] - The total land transaction price was 44.71 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 210.7% and a year-on-year increase of 43.5% [63][67] - The average land price was 2,538.2 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 97.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [62][67] 3. Policy Overview - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at improving housing quality and stabilizing the real estate market, particularly in major cities like Shanghai [3][4] 4. Company Performance Review - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as those that have shown significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [7]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,128, down 1.3% for the day but up 30.3% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index decreased by 1.5% for the day, with a YTD increase of 34.8% [2] - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.9% but has risen 15.6% YTD [2] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price is at $69 per barrel, down 0.9% and down 3.6% YTD [3] - Gold prices increased by 0.2% to $3,769 per ounce, with a significant YTD rise of 43.6% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 0.8% to $10,182 per ton, with a YTD increase of 16.1% [3] Economic Indicators - The US Pending Home Sales Index decreased by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) as of September 29, 2025 [4] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index reported a value of 97.4, above the consensus of 95.8 [4] - US average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY as of October 3, 2025 [4] Southbound Trading Insights - Average daily turnover for southbound trading reached over HK$310 billion as of September 25, 2025 [6] - The net inflow for Mainland-HK southbound trading is now expected to be RMB1.3 trillion for 2025, up from RMB1.2 trillion [6] Sector Updates - China Unicom's 2025 AI Server Tender has a total budget of RMB7.96 billion for 87,020 servers, indicating intense pricing competition [13] - China Unicom's total CAPEX for Cloud Computing in 2025 is projected to be RMB18 billion, 28% higher than in 2024 [14]