Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a growth of 1,481.94% in the first half of 2025. This is attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements, alongside a recovery in the agricultural protection industry [2][10]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning within the agricultural protection sector, which is seeing a recovery in market demand, and notes the orderly advancement of its product layout [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.15 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and a net profit of 224 million RMB, reflecting a substantial increase of 1,481.94% [10][11]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 1.64 billion RMB, up 8.43% year-on-year, with a net profit of 174 million RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 1,419.69% [12]. - The company's gross margin improved to 26.72% in the first half of 2025, up 3.56 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 8.36%, an increase of 6.91 percentage points [10]. Business Segment Performance - The agricultural protection business generated revenue of 1.70 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 24.99%, an increase of 9.48 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The pharmaceutical business reported revenue of 1.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 42.80%, with a gross margin of 42.75% [10]. - The fine and functional chemicals segment achieved revenue of 265 million RMB, a significant increase of 109.18% year-on-year, although it reported a negative gross margin of -19.05% [10]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 318 million RMB, 421 million RMB, and 530 million RMB, respectively. Corresponding earnings per share are expected to be 0.35 RMB, 0.46 RMB, and 0.58 RMB, with price-to-earnings ratios of 32.6, 24.6, and 19.6 times [7][9].

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, particularly in the context of a complex external environment and weakening global economic growth [7][22] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [5][21] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a slight adjustment post-holiday, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.51%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49% [3][14] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the active ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.26% [3][14] - The report notes a mixed performance in various asset classes, with coal futures rising by 2.42% and iron ore futures declining by 0.38% [3][14] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [5][15] - The allocation to commodities is maintained at a standard level, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [5][15] Economic Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0% [21][22] - Consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in both goods and services consumption [21][22] Industry-Specific Developments - The report highlights the government's support for consumption through the issuance of special bonds totaling 690 billion yuan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods [22][23] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging trade-ins, with a notable increase in sales anticipated [35][41]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251009 当前（2025 年 10 月 09 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.6%）、基础化工（8.7%）、农林牧渔（7.8%）、综合（7.5%）、通 信 （ 6.8% ） 、 房 地 产 （ 6.5% ） 、 有 色 金 属 （ 5.9% ） 、 交 通 运 输 （5.8%）、银行（5.8%）、电力设备及新能源（4.9%）、食品饮料 （4.7%）、国防军工（4.0%）、综合金融（3.6%）、煤炭（3.6%）、消 费者服务（3.6%）、建材（3.0%）、机械（1.9%）、家电（1.1%）、建 筑（1.1%）、电力及公用事业（1.1%）、石油石化（1.1%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（ ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 市场整体回撤，红利指数大幅跑赢创业板指 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利 风格拥挤度近期处于历史较低位置。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格拥挤度近期上升至历史均衡位置，大盘风格 拥挤度近期上升至历史高位。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度下降至历史低位；基金重仓超额 累计净值持续处于历史低位，拥挤度近期上行至历史高位。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为有色金属、煤炭、钢铁；领跌的行业为传媒、消费者 服务、电子。本周成交热度最高的行业为国防军工、有色金属、机械； 成交热度最低的行业为农林牧渔、综合金融、食品饮料。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为有色金属、钢铁、交通运 输，居后的行业为医药、银行、机械。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率下跌，中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元贬值，离岸人民币较美 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [36] Core Insights - OpenAI has launched its latest video generation model Sora 2.0, marking a significant advancement in AI video content creation, which is expected to enter a more mainstream application phase [11][12] - AMD has entered a strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy a total of 6GW of AMD Instinct series GPU computing power, with the collaboration expected to generate hundreds of billions in revenue [15][16] - The upcoming release of Figure 03, a humanoid robot, signifies a new phase in the commercialization of embodied intelligence, with significant cost reductions and mass production plans [18][20] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform the Market," indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [36] Key Events - OpenAI's Sora 2.0 was released on September 30, 2025, allowing users to create AI videos through text, images, or videos, with a notable feature allowing users to insert themselves into scenes [11][12] - AMD and OpenAI announced a strategic cooperation on October 6, 2025, to deploy 6GW of GPU computing power, with the first phase starting in 2026 [15][16] - Figure 03, a humanoid robot, is set to be released on October 9, 2025, focusing on cost control and large-scale production, with a goal of producing 100,000 units annually [18][20] Company Developments - Guangyang Co. plans to invest 150 million RMB in a robot industry fund, contributing to a total fund size of 300 million RMB [27] - Suochen Technology is acquiring a 55% stake in Kunyu Lancheng for approximately 74.25 million RMB, enhancing its control over the company [28]

Core Insights - The report highlights a record high in domestic travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with 888 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [6] - Despite the increase in travel volume, average spending per person has slightly decreased, indicating a trend of consumers being more cautious with their expenditures [6] - The cross-border travel market remains robust, with a significant increase in both outbound and inbound travel, suggesting a continued recovery in the tourism sector [9] Domestic Travel Performance - The total expenditure for domestic travel reached 809 billion CNY, with an average daily spending of 911.04 CNY, which is down 13% year-on-year [6] - Daily cross-regional travel reached over 300 million people, marking a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [6] - Popular tourist destinations saw significant visitor numbers, such as Changbai Mountain receiving 221,700 visitors and Jiuzhaigou receiving 305,700 visitors, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.39% [7] Trends in Tourism - There is a noticeable shift towards "deep experience travel," with long-distance and immersive travel becoming more popular, as evidenced by a 3 percentage point increase in long-distance travel orders compared to last year [8] - Events like music festivals and sports competitions are becoming key drivers in the cultural tourism market, significantly boosting local hotel bookings [8] - The report notes that the trend of "reverse tourism" is gaining traction, with tourists exploring non-traditional cities beyond major metropolitan areas [9] Cross-Border Travel Insights - During the holiday period, a total of 16.34 million people crossed borders, with an average of 2.043 million people per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [9] - Outbound travel remains strong, particularly to East Asia and Southeast Asia, while European destinations are seeing a notable increase in bookings [9] - Inbound travel is also on the rise, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the holidays, of which 535,000 benefited from visa-free entry, marking increases of 19.8% and 46.8% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1][27]. Core Insights - Significant breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and advancements in nuclear fusion industrialization are highlighted. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to maintain high growth, driven by new model releases and the upcoming sales peak, which will boost demand for batteries and materials [1][3]. - The report emphasizes a "anti-involution" strategy for photovoltaic investments, with recent government announcements aimed at maintaining market price order, indicating potential price increases within the photovoltaic industry chain [1][3]. - The new energy storage sector is projected to remain robust, with a target of reaching over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, and recent trends show rising bidding prices for storage systems [1][3]. - In the hydrogen energy sector, the National Energy Administration is promoting green liquid fuel technology, which is expected to benefit from premium pricing in its early development stages [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that in September 2025, NEV wholesale sales reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the first nine months of the year reached 10.446 million units, up 32% year-on-year [3][16]. - The average price of a 2-hour energy storage system in September 2025 was 0.641 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 31% increase month-on-month [1][16]. - The BEST device's first key component, the Dewar base, has been assembled, marking progress in nuclear fusion projects [1][16]. Company Developments - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary signed a supply agreement for ternary precursor products totaling approximately 76,000 tons from 2026 to 2030 [18]. - Zhongwei Co. is undergoing a listing review by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiamen Tungsten [18]. - Aike Saibo has released a draft for its 2025 restricted stock incentive plan [18].

Core Insights - The report highlights a short-term defensive strategy for A-shares due to downward pressure from overseas risk sentiment, particularly related to U.S.-China trade tensions and the recent performance of Nvidia as a stabilizing signal for the A-share technology growth index [2][12][25] - It suggests focusing on domestic demand, dividend stocks, energy, and precious metals as defensive assets during this period of market volatility [2][12] - The report indicates that the current market sentiment in A-shares is at a short-term high, with potential for a pullback similar to the tariff impacts observed in April 2025 [12][13] Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline in early April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from 3348.44 points to 3145.55 points, a decrease of 6.06%, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 12.44% during the same period [12][13] - The report notes that sectors such as semiconductors and technology were heavily impacted, while software development and precious metals showed resilience [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global macro events and their impact on market sentiment, advocating for a defensive mindset in the short term [13] Industry and Economic Trends - The report identifies a significant increase in storage chip prices, with DRAM and NAND prices rising by 227.6% and 42.7% respectively since the beginning of 2025, driven by strong demand from the AI sector [42][45] - It highlights the ongoing updates and optimizations in AI models, such as DeepSeek and Sora2, which are expected to catalyze investment opportunities in domestic computing power and AI applications [44][45] - The report suggests that the adjustment of margin financing rates for certain stocks may create short-term trading disruptions but does not fundamentally alter the mid-term market trends, which will depend more on macroeconomic conditions and performance verification [40][41][45] Asset Class Performance - The report provides a summary of recent performance across major asset classes, noting a net outflow of 39.167 billion yuan from A-shares, with significant inflows into sectors like non-ferrous metals and utilities [31][48] - It indicates that the market is currently favoring small-cap value stocks, with a notable increase in net subscriptions for equity ETFs [31][50] - The report also mentions the potential for increased foreign capital inflows in the fourth quarter, which could support the continuation of incremental capital into A-shares [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asset price recovery and systematic inflation restoration are conditions for the continuous rise of long - term yields. In the scenario of the A - share market transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2]. - On October 10, Trump issued a new tariff threat with an intended effective date of November 1. If China and the US can manage their differences quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and the impact of new tariffs on US Treasury bonds may be less than that of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - The outcome of the US government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. If Democrats in Congress compromise, it is positive for US Treasury bonds; otherwise, it is negative. The US economic growth highly depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may cause economic stagnation. The US debt market also faces the uncertainty of the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Bond Yields and Asset Prices**: Low interest rates are usually due to low financing demand. Low interest rates and low asset valuations are interrelated. In Japan, when major inflation indicators fluctuated around 0, short - term interest rates bottomed out. Long - term yields are closely related to asset prices. After short - term rates bottomed out in the 1990s, long - term yields continued to decline during the housing price downturn. Only recently, with the joint increase in housing and stock prices, have Japanese long - term interest rates risen. In the scenario of A - shares transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2][11][12]. - **US Tariff Threat**: On October 10, Trump issued a tariff threat scheduled to take effect on November 1. If differences are managed quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and new tariffs may have less impact on US Treasury bonds. The outcome of the government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. US economic growth depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may lead to economic stagnation. The US debt market faces uncertainty from the US Supreme Court's tariff policy ruling [2][13][17]. - **Production Data**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.66% week - on - week and 25.02% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.60% week - on - week on September 26. The production data price index remained flat week - on - week on September 26 [2][21]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production data price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [26][28]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents charts on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for interest rate hikes or cuts [99][101][108]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal) and the production data price index [110]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167][173].

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic focus is on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, with a one-month outlook remaining unchanged[5] - The manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points[19] - During the National Day holiday, daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively[19] Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.51% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49%[3] - Coal futures increased by 2.42%, while iron ore futures decreased by 0.38%[3] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products is at 1.85%, and the 7-day annualized yield for Yu'ebao dropped by 4 basis points to 1.05%[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[7] - Stocks are overweight due to the focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies[5] - Bonds and currency are underweight, with yields expected to fluctuate around 2%[5] Market Trends - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.26%[3] - The overall performance of A-shares shows a divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks this week[13] - The VIX index increased to 21.66, indicating heightened market volatility[17]