Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI applications in China, with the launch of Ant Group's AI assistant "Lingguang" achieving over 2 million downloads in just six days, indicating strong market demand for high-quality AI products [21][22] - The Chinese government is enhancing cybersecurity governance, with new regulations marking a shift towards more detailed and effective management of cybersecurity incidents [13][14] - China is leading the space computing race, with a three-phase plan for space data centers aiming for significant advancements in computational power and efficiency [16][20] - The human-shaped robot industry in Beijing is rapidly evolving, with government support aimed at commercializing and scaling production [24][26] - Singapore's shift to using Alibaba's Qwen model for its national AI program signifies a structural shift in the global AI landscape, showcasing the growing influence of Chinese AI technologies [29][31] Summary by Sections Cybersecurity - The report discusses the recent emphasis on cybersecurity governance by the Chinese government, including the implementation of the "National Cybersecurity Incident Reporting Management Measures" which aims to enhance accountability and efficiency in reporting incidents [13][14] - The new cybersecurity law set to take effect in January 2026 complements these measures, establishing a robust legal framework for cybersecurity management [15] Space Computing - A three-phase construction plan for space data centers has been outlined, with the first phase targeting a total power of 200KW and a computational capacity of 1000POPS by 2027 [16][17] - The report notes that advancements in AI and satellite technology are expected to drive down costs and enhance the scalability of space computing [20] AI Applications - The rapid adoption of AI applications in various sectors is highlighted, with "Lingguang" setting records for downloads, reflecting a shift towards practical and user-friendly AI solutions [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of a supportive ecosystem for AI development in China, including a robust industrial framework and a large user base [22][23] Human-Shaped Robots - The report outlines Beijing's strategic focus on developing the human-shaped robot industry, with significant government backing to foster innovation and commercialization [24][26] - Companies in this sector are already achieving substantial production milestones, indicating a promising market outlook [25][28] Global AI Landscape - The collaboration between Alibaba and Singapore's AI initiative marks a significant recognition of Chinese AI capabilities on the global stage, suggesting a shift in the competitive dynamics of AI technology [29][31] - The report notes that this partnership reflects a broader trend of countries seeking to establish sovereign AI capabilities, leveraging local technologies [30][31]

Macro Economy - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64% this week, with the asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.64%, while the Shanghai Composite Index futures rose by 1.49%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 4.40%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 0.64%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 2 basis points to 1.00%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.84% [2][12][37]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report highlights that raw material prices continue to be a significant drag on the profitability of industrial enterprises. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for production materials showed a notable year-on-year decline from January to October. The report suggests that policies may be implemented to address the issue of "price weakness" from both supply and demand sides, with expectations for incremental policies by the end of this year and early next year [3][5][21]. Key Economic Data - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached USD 144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The new contract amount for foreign engineering contracting business was USD 210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [6][21]. Industry Insights - The report notes that the real estate investment continues to drag down fixed asset investment performance, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 14.7% from January to October, impacting the current fixed asset investment growth rate by 3.0 percentage points [3][21]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures index rose by 5.25% this week, with significant increases in non-metallic building materials (4.64%) and precious metals (3.80%). However, some commodities like coking coal saw a decline of 2.52% [49][51]. Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a general increase, with the ChiNext Index leading at a rise of 4.54%. The telecommunications and electronic components sectors performed well, while the oil and coal sectors experienced declines [37][38]. Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond yield rose to 1.84%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points. The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may impact the bond market in the short term [42][44]. Consumer Market Trends - The report highlights that the automobile consumption data shows a mixed performance, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 2% and -7% respectively. The report anticipates that automobile consumption will remain a key focus for future consumption promotion efforts [34][37].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in crude oil freight rates, with the China Import Crude Oil Index (CTFI) reaching 2520.07 points, an increase of 8.4% from November 20 [3][13] - The postal industry revenue surpassed the telecommunications industry for the first time in history, reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, compared to 1.467 trillion yuan for telecommunications [3][24] - The civil aviation sector showed growth in both passenger and cargo transport volumes in October, with international routes performing particularly well [3][17] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are rising, with the Middle East route seeing a 10.76% increase in rates [13] - Qifly Aviation signed a procurement agreement for 105 eVTOL aircraft with three companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on low-altitude logistics [15][16] - The postal industry revenue for January to October 2025 reached 1.47 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [24][25] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flights in October 2025 increased by 0.32% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 11.12% [32] - The express delivery business volume in October 2025 increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan [50] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, with the new export orders index rising 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely boosted by the upcoming holiday season[3] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, while the raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month[3] Group 2: Investment and Demand Trends - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year[1] - The major raw material purchase price index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of purchasing activity[9] - Demand in the raw materials and equipment manufacturing sectors shows signs of recovery, with the new orders index for non-metallic mineral products significantly above the threshold[10] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI index for November is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in business activity[4] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, while the new export orders index has improved to 47.9%, up 1.7 percentage points[12] - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.6%, with a new orders index of 46.1%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand despite remaining in contraction territory[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Views - The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak sales season for new energy vehicles, with domestic sales in 2025 projected to maintain high growth, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting a "de-involution" strategy in the battery industry, which is expected to restore profitability across the supply chain [1]. - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "de-involution" strategy is seen as a key investment theme, although terminal demand is currently weak [1]. - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with a focus on wind turbine and offshore wind directions [1]. - Energy storage demand remains robust, with battery cells and integration still in a price increase phase [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream applications [1]. - Nuclear fusion is viewed as a long-term catalyst for energy development, with attention on core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 3.59% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [10]. - The power generation equipment sector saw the highest increase at 5.34%, followed by wind power at 4.99% and new energy vehicles at 4.48% [13]. Key Industry Information - NIO reported a record high revenue of 21.79 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [25]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating targeted policy measures to regulate irrational competition in the battery industry [25]. - LG Chem announced a significant improvement in solid-state battery performance, with a basic capacity increase of approximately 15% and a high-rate discharge capacity increase of about 50% [25]. - As of the end of October, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [25]. Company Developments - Longpan Technology signed a supplementary agreement with Chuangneng New Energy, with a total sales amount exceeding 45 billion yuan [27]. - JinkoSolar expects global energy storage installation demand to exceed 400 GWh next year, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30% until 2030 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains solid, and the gold - silver ratio is being restored. The price elasticity of silver is better than that of gold, and it is recommended to pay attention to the rotation opportunities of the A - share non - ferrous related sectors [1]. - The short - term supplementary increase elasticity of silver in precious metals is expected to be stronger than that of gold, which has been verified. The short - term certainty of silver is stronger, with a large restoration space for the gold - silver ratio, and the demand growth in industrial fields such as photovoltaics provides support for the silver price [2]. - The A - share is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the precious metal sector is expected to become the main allocation direction during the rotation stage of the technology main line. In terms of profit, the "anti - involution" related sectors are expected to contribute to the marginal increase in A - share profits. As precious metal prices reach new highs, the A - share precious metal sector is expected to be the focus of capital rotation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Silver Market Performance - On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures price hit a new high in nearly a year (12,800 yuan/ton), and the relative increase of Shanghai silver compared to Shanghai gold in the past month was 8.12%, indicating stronger elasticity of silver in the precious metal sector [2]. 3.2 Long - term Logic of Precious Metals - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals is still strong. In the short term, the market expects an 83.2% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Although the implementation of the interest - rate cut expectation may cause short - term fluctuations in precious metal prices, the upward trend remains unchanged. The core logic is that the start of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle confirms the shift to a loose monetary policy, and potential concerns about the Fed's policy independence will support precious metal prices from both liquidity and risk - aversion aspects [2]. 3.3 Comparison between Gold and Silver - Gold is still in an upward channel but is in a high - level shock stage after accelerated upward movement. The key to the subsequent market is whether the "decline in real interest rates" and "weakening of the US dollar" can resonate. In contrast, silver has stronger short - term certainty. The current high "gold - silver ratio" has a large restoration space, and the demand growth in industrial fields such as photovoltaics supports the silver price. The low inventory level makes its short - term price elasticity better than that of gold [2]. 3.4 A - share Market and Investment Suggestions - The A - share is expected to stabilize in the short term and warm up the "spring rally" market. In 2026, the two main lines of technology and "anti - involution" are expected to be the main focuses of industry allocation. The precious metal sector is expected to be the main allocation direction during the rotation of the technology main line. From the profit perspective, the "anti - involution" related sectors are expected to contribute to the marginal increase in A - share profits. As precious metal prices reach new highs, the A - share precious metal sector is expected to be the focus of capital rotation. It is recommended to pay attention to industries such as non - ferrous metals and basic chemicals, especially related targets in the precious metal and small metal sectors [2]. 3.5 A - share Earnings Structure - The report analyzes the profit structure of A - shares. In 2025Q2 and 2025Q3, different sectors and industries have different profit growth rates and contribution degrees. For example, the TMT sector has a relatively high profit growth rate and contribution degree in both quarters, while some sectors such as building and real estate have a decline in profits [4].

中银量化大类资产跟踪 A 股市场缩量反弹，贵金属涨幅居前 金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 股票市场概览 本周 A 股市场整体上涨，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场普遍上涨，其 他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘 vs 大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格 当前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 金融工程 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 联系人：宋坤笛 (8610) 83949524 kundi.s ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to warm up for a bull market in early 2025, with stable funds likely to support the market amid unchanged policy attitudes. The current adjustment is seen as a healthy correction within the bull market, setting the stage for a pre-spring rally at the end of the year and the beginning of the next [4][2] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to be the main line for investment during this period, benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and risk appetite. The Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices are expected to lead the recovery in broad-based indices [4][2] - The AI industry chain remains optimistic, with strong downstream demand and short-term supply challenges in AI infrastructure, presenting investment opportunities in power supply and computing power, particularly in domestic computing power [4][2] December Stock Picks - The December stock picks from Zhongyin Securities include: - Poly Real Estate Group (Real Estate) - Jitu Express-W (Transportation) - China Merchants Energy (Transportation) - Wanhua Chemical (Chemicals) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Huayou Cobalt (New Energy) - Anjii Food (Food and Beverage) - Changbai Mountain (Social Services) - Feiliwa (Electronics) [6][8] Real Estate Industry: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3% due to investment losses and increased minority shareholder losses [8][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased to 1.3% [8][9] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with total interest-bearing debt decreasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and all "three red lines" indicators turning green, indicating a healthier financial position [9][10] Transportation Industry: Jitu Express-W - The company achieved a total revenue of $5.499 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with significant growth in the Southeast Asian market [13][14] - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased to 32.8%, while the Chinese market saw a 20% increase in package volume [14][15] - The company is focusing on cost optimization and has implemented a flexible pricing mechanism to enhance competitiveness [15] Transportation Industry: China Merchants Energy - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue to 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit increased by 5.59% to 5.107 billion yuan, indicating resilient profitability [16][17] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in shipping volume, particularly in high-value routes, contributing to a strong performance [16][17] Chemical Industry: Wanhua Chemical - The company’s revenue from polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals in the first half of 2025 was 36.888 billion yuan, 34.934 billion yuan, and 15.628 billion yuan, respectively, with the petrochemical segment facing short-term pressure [19][20] - The company’s management reforms have led to improved cost control and resource allocation efficiency, which is expected to enhance future performance [19][20] Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - The company reported continuous high growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 56.61% [23][24] - The company’s polishing liquid sales increased by 38.23% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor market [24][25] New Energy Industry: Huayou Cobalt - The company achieved a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.59%, with a revenue growth of 29.57% [26][27] - The company is advancing its integrated layout with ongoing project developments in nickel and lithium production [26][27] Food and Beverage Industry: Anjii Food - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by product innovation and channel expansion [28][29] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and cost control, maintaining stable profitability despite rising raw material costs [29][30] Social Services Industry: Changbai Mountain - The company experienced a 6.99% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in tourist numbers during the peak season [31][32] - External transportation upgrades and internal project developments are expected to enhance future growth prospects [32] Electronics Industry: Feiliwa - The company is investing in expanding its quartz electronic fabric production capacity to meet the growing demand for high-end PCB materials [33][34] - The demand for quartz electronic fabric is expected to increase due to advancements in Ethernet switch chip technology [34][35]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251127 当前（2025 年 11 月 27 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.5%）、交通运输（9.9%）、通信（8.8%）、基础化工（8.1%）、食 品饮料（7.9%）、有色金属（6.9%）、银行（6.4%）、家电（4.4%）、 纺织服装（4.2%）、综合（4.0%）、钢铁（4.0%）、煤炭（3.9%）、农 林牧渔（3.3%）、国防军工（3.2%）、医药（3.2%）、电力设备及新能 源（3.1%）、机械（1.8%）、电子（1.8%）、石油石化（1.2%）、电力 及公用事业（1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Inflation drives the continuous rise in yields, but it should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected. The domestic bond market is under pressure this week, and the reasons may be the unfulfilled market expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators. It is necessary to observe the feedback of real growth indicators on the price rebound [2]. - Three important Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.0% again. In the early stage of the Fed's rate cut cycle, this is an important threshold for the US Treasury yield. Although the medium - term outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the 10 - year US Treasury yield may rebound above 4% even if it falls below this level in the near term [2]. - The consumer season in the US has started. If US residents' consumption remains strong, it may affect the decline in inflation in November and December [2]. Summary by Directory Inflation and Bond Market Pressure - **Domestic Bond Market Pressure**: The domestic bond market is under pressure this week. The 10 - year yield of China Treasury bonds exceeded 1.85% on Thursday for the first time since October this year but fell back on Friday. The market's unfulfilled expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators may be the reasons. Widespread policy rate cuts are not an urgently needed tool at present, and the continuous rise in yields driven by inflation should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected [2]. - **US Treasury at a Key Point**: Three Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.0% again. In the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 10 - year US Treasury yield only remained stably below 4% after the federal funds rate dropped to a very low level. The US Treasury still faces the risk of fiscal imbalance, and changes in US tariff policies may impact the US fiscal balance in the short term. The consumer season in the US has started, and strong consumer demand may affect the decline in inflation in November and December. In the medium term, the outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, but there is a risk of rebound [2]. - **Production Material Price Index Rebound**: This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.72% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.23% week - on - week and 15.88% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and 3.92% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.06% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased by 0.85% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.57% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar decreased by 3.77% week - on - week; the price index of rebar increased by 0.88% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 1.34% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 2.72% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.95% and 1.38% week - on - week respectively. The average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities from November 1 - 25 this year was about 243,000 square meters per day, compared with about 390,000 square meters per day in November 2024 [2]. High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between domestic industrial added value and PPI year - on - year, the relationship between the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, etc. [8][19] - **US and European Important High - Frequency Indicators**: Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and real economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, etc. [89] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with all seasonal trend indicators being month - on - month increases and the unit being %. [103] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown. [151]