Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both sales and investment in the real estate sector, with June sales area at 105 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, marking the lowest level since 2011 [1][12]. - The total development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, which is a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to May [1][9]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Housing Sales - The sales area in June was 105 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, which is a 2.2 percentage point increase in the decline compared to May [1]. - The sales amount for June was 1.02 trillion yuan, down 10.8% year-on-year, marking a return to double-digit negative growth after eight months [1][14]. - The average selling price of commodity housing in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [7]. 2. Commodity Residential Inventory - The broad inventory of commodity residential properties stood at 1.63 billion square meters at the end of June, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.2% [2]. - The current housing inventory (completed but unsold) was approximately 408 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2]. 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Construction, and Completion - The development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment at 803.9 billion yuan, down 11.8% [6]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, remaining at historically low levels [6][11]. - The completion area in June was 41.82 million square meters, down 1.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed significantly [6][16]. 4. Developer Funding - In June, the total funds available to real estate companies were 99.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [6][16]. - The decline in sales receipts was significant, with housing sales receipts down 18.6% year-on-year [21]. - The report suggests that the second quarter saw a notable weakening in both sales and investment data, with expectations for policy support to improve market conditions [6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: stable fundamentals in core cities, "small but beautiful" companies with significant breakthroughs, companies with operational changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [6].

Export and Import Performance - In the first half of the year, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, while imports declined by 3.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $585.96 billion[2] - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with imports turning positive at a growth rate of 1.1%, leading to a trade surplus of $114.77 billion[2] - ASEAN and EU continued to support China's export growth, contributing 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points to the June export growth, respectively[2] Product-Specific Insights - Electrical and mechanical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits and general machinery growing by 18.9% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively[4] - Some light industrial products saw improvements in export prices, with declines in prices for household ceramics and footwear narrowing by 7.0 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively[4] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[4] Economic Risks - There is an increasing risk of economic recession in Europe and the US, alongside a complex international situation that could impact trade dynamics[3]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 17 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250717 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】6 月和二季度经济数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。上半年实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，下半年稳增长仍需加力提效。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3503.78 | (0.03) | | 深证成指 | 10720.81 | (0.22) | | 沪深 300 | 4007.20 | (0.30) | | 中小 100 | 6654.27 | (0.36) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社会服务 | 1.13 | 钢铁 | (1.28) | | 汽车 | 1.07 | 银行 | (0.74) | | 医药生物 | 0.95 | 有色金属 | (0.45) | | 轻工制造 | 0.94 | 非银金融 | (0.43) | | 农林牧渔 | 0.85 | 建筑装饰 | (0.42) | 资料来源：万得 ...

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, the actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from Q1[3] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value in the first half was 6.4%[40] Industrial Performance - In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 5.5%[11] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 7.0% in the first half, while high-tech industries saw a 9.5% increase[11] - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing rose by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half, while infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%[27] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from May[17] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with service consumption rising by 5.3%[40] - The average per capita disposable income in the first half was 21,840 yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year[36] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous period[24] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half, with new housing starts down 20.0%[28] - The decline in real estate sales area was 3.5%, and sales revenue decreased by 5.5%[30] Policy Implications - Strengthening fiscal policy is crucial for stabilizing economic growth in the second half of 2025[40] - The uncertainty of external demand, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies, poses risks to economic stability[41] - Monitoring the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting will be essential for understanding future economic strategies[41]

Group 1 - The BOCIASI A-share sentiment indicator has issued a cautious signal after three months, indicating a need for attention [2][3][4] - The report discusses two main questions: understanding the recent market rally and actions to take following the cautious signal [4] - The A-share index has touched the upper bound of its range three times since October 2024, with the BOCIASI indicator accurately signaling caution each time [4][6] Group 2 - The recent market rally can be divided into three phases, driven by external environment improvements and policy expectations [4][7] - The first phase benefited from the easing of geopolitical tensions, while the second phase was supported by a significant rise in financial stocks, particularly banks [7] - The third phase saw a rotation in midstream industries, supported by the "anti-involution" policy announced after the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 [7][8] Group 3 - Following the cautious signal, the sentiment indicator's slow line reading was at 44.6%, just above the cautious threshold of 44.4%, while the fast line reading was at 61.2%, below the cautious threshold of 70.0% [8] - The current market state is expected to enter a "high-level oscillation" or "slight adjustment" phase, with a medium-term strategy of "two advances and one retreat" [8][9] - Four strategies are suggested for current market conditions, including focusing on defensive sectors and optimizing portfolios [8][9][10]

Group 1: Policy Changes - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has implemented a "pre-review" mechanism to enhance support for hard technology companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4] - The new guideline allows companies to apply for pre-review before their IPO, aiming to reduce information disclosure costs and improve document quality[4] Group 2: Target Audience and Benefits - The pre-review mechanism specifically targets technology companies engaged in critical core technology development, aligning with current policy support directions[4] - This mechanism provides a buffer for companies, helping them manage the timing of sensitive information disclosures, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and biomedicine[4] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The pre-review process is confidential, allowing companies to decide on formal applications based on feedback received, which can shorten the formal review timeline[4] - Companies that improve their documents based on pre-review feedback may avoid repeated inquiries during the formal review, enhancing efficiency[4] Group 4: Market Impact - The introduction of the pre-review mechanism is expected to accelerate the IPO process for technology companies, potentially shortening preparation cycles[4] - This change is anticipated to increase project reserves and review efficiency for investment banks, enhancing their competitive edge in technology sponsorship[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [37]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive outlook for financial IT and cross-border payment companies due to the recent policy developments in stablecoins, RDA, and CIPS, which are expected to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve transparency in cross-border payments and settlements [1][4][21]. - The stablecoin market is diversifying, with various participants including fintech companies and traditional banks, which is likely to enhance the credibility and application scenarios of stablecoins [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," with expectations of better performance compared to the benchmark index [37]. Company Dynamics - Jiuyuan Yinhai expects to achieve revenue of 414-454 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%-15%, with net profit expected to grow significantly by 130%-180% [3]. - Inspur Information plans to repurchase its A-shares with a total fund of no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 300 million yuan, with an expected repurchase price not exceeding 75.59 yuan per share [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Runhe Software, Nantian Information, Borui Data, Huichen Shares, Digital Government, and Jiuyuan Yinhai, which are expected to benefit from the developments in stablecoins and related technologies [4][21]. Policy Developments - Recent policies in regions like Hong Kong and Shanghai are aimed at promoting the development of stablecoins and their applications, including the issuance of tokenized government bonds and enhancing the management mechanisms for cross-border payment systems [15][18][21]. - The introduction of the RDA paradigm by the Shanghai Data Exchange emphasizes the importance of data in verifying the authenticity and enhancing the value of real-world assets [20][21]. Market Trends - The stablecoin market is expanding into real-world applications, particularly in cross-border payments, B2B payments, and asset tokenization, which are expected to grow rapidly [14][21]. - The report notes that the development of stablecoins will increase the demand for system upgrades and related services from financial IT companies [21].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The shipping rates for oil tankers in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have slightly increased, while the container shipping rates for the US routes have rebounded and the European routes remain stable [3][13] - Hefei is building the first national drone-sharing airport network, and Pudong Airport has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound passengers in the first half of the year [3][16] - Jitu Express reported a 65.9% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, marking the highest growth rate since its listing [3][24] Industry Dynamics - **Shipping and Ports**: The VLCC market has returned to a supply-demand balance, with overall vessel supply remaining ample. The shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at WS49.24, up 2.48% from July 3 [3][14] - **Container Shipping**: The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have shown slight fluctuations, with rates to the US West and East coasts increasing by 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [3][15] - **Aviation**: The first half of 2025 saw Pudong Airport handle 18.26 million passengers, a 23.44% increase year-on-year, with new international routes contributing to this growth [3][18] - **Logistics**: Jitu Express's package volume in Southeast Asia reached 1.69 billion packages in Q2, with a 65.9% increase year-on-year, while the overall global package volume grew by 23.5% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Guangdong Expressway, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - Monitor e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Look into aviation industry investment opportunities, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 3.71 trillion yuan by 13.2%[2] - The year-on-year increase in social financing was 900.8 billion yuan, marking a 27.3% rise compared to the same month last year[2] - New RMB loans in June amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Trends - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from May[2] - M1 growth was 4.6%, showing a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M0 growth was 12.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from May[2] Group 3: Loan and Deposit Dynamics - New deposits totaled 3.21 trillion yuan, with household deposits contributing 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - New loans from financial institutions reached 2.24 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 1.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a positive trend[2] - The increase in short-term loans and bills was particularly notable, indicating a response to short-term export demands[2] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights the potential for continued monetary easing in the second half of the year due to external pressures from U.S. tariff policies[2] - Risks include a potential rise in global inflation and a rapid slowdown in the economies of Europe and the U.S.[2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of a "pre-review" mechanism by the Shanghai Stock Exchange to enhance the IPO ecosystem for hard technology companies, aiming to support their development and streamline the listing process [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On July 13, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially released the "Guidelines for the Application of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Issuance and Listing Review Rules No. 7 - Pre-Review," effective immediately. This guideline focuses on improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of the review system, specifically for technology companies engaged in critical core technology development [2]. Mechanism Innovation - The pre-review mechanism represents a significant innovation in the review process, transitioning from a "post-correction" approach to a "pre-guidance" model. This mechanism is not mandatory but offers professional inquiry services to reduce information disclosure costs and enhance document quality, particularly for hard technology companies with sensitive information [2][3]. Targeted Support - The guidelines specifically target technology companies involved in critical core technology development or other specific circumstances, aligning with current policy support directions in strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors, biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [2][3]. Design and Efficiency - The pre-review process is designed to be confidential, allowing issuers to decide whether to formally apply after receiving review feedback. If the issuer has improved the application documents according to the feedback and there are no new significant issues, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will not conduct repeated inquiries, effectively shortening the formal review time [2][3]. Enhancing Review Quality - The guidelines are aligned with the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Tier" system proposed at the Lujiazui Forum in June 2025, indicating a shift towards a more refined and structured IPO review system focused on information disclosure [2][3]. Accelerating IPO Processes - The implementation of these guidelines is expected to accelerate the IPO process for technology companies, particularly those in sensitive information disclosure phases, thereby enhancing the value of front-end services provided by investment banks [2][3].