Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area has seen a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 50.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [1][17] - The second-hand housing market shows a narrowing month-on-month decline of 6.9%, but a year-on-year decline of 18.3% [1][17] - New home inventory has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year it has decreased, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.1 months [1][17] - The land market has experienced a decrease in both volume and price month-on-month, but a year-on-year increase in total land price by 94.4% [1][17] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic bond issuance by real estate companies, with a total issuance of 238.6 billion yuan, up 112.5% month-on-month and 117.9% year-on-year [1][17] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of July 5 to July 11, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 1.7 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 44.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [17][18] - The new home transaction area was 160.0 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 50.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% [17][18] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1,564.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.9% and a year-on-year increase of 33.0% [1][17] - The total land transaction price was 432.8 billion yuan, down 28.4% month-on-month but up 94.4% year-on-year [1][17] 3. Policy Overview - The report discusses local government initiatives to support housing consumption, including policies to allow the use of housing provident fund for down payments and the introduction of "mortgage transfer" policies [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the second-hand market recovery [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.00% this week, following a previous increase of 3.77% [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1] - Key banks to watch include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell this week, with 17 out of 42 banks seeing an increase in stock prices [2][12] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 1.08%, while joint-stock banks saw a slight decline of 0.08% [2][15] - Over the past month, state-owned banks increased by 8.98%, while joint-stock banks rose by 9.80% [2][15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan this week [3][28] - The overnight SHIBOR rate rose to 1.33%, and the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased to 1.48% [3][31] - The average overnight repo rate for deposit institutions was 1.34%, reflecting a rise of 3 basis points [3][31] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 17,057.9 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 2,087.7 billion yuan compared to last week [4][41] - Financial bonds issuance was 4,071.5 billion yuan, up by 2,030.5 billion yuan from the previous week [4][41] - Government bonds saw a rise in yields, with the 1-year yield at 1.37% and the 10-year yield at 1.67% [5][43] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The issuance of interbank certificates totaled 4,259 billion yuan, an increase of 1,833 billion yuan from last week [54] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.61%, down by 1 basis point [54]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July 31st hearing of the US Federal Appellate Court may set the tone for subsequent tariff frictions. If the court does not support the new tariff policy, more trading partners may announce counter - measures, causing greater chaos in the US financial market. If it supports, the market may be relatively calm. Concerns about stagflation risks and trading partners selling US Treasuries are the biggest risk points in the US financial market [2][10]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative will ease the inertia of low inflation. Since October 2022, China's PPI has declined year - on - year for 33 consecutive months, while CPI has stabilized. The downstream price trend supports the upstream to improve quality and stabilize prices through "anti - involution", promoting the narrowing of the PPI decline [2][15]. - The producer price index for means of production continued to rebound. From July 7th to 12th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased week - on - week, while the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased, while the prices of LME copper and aluminum decreased. The producer price index for means of production increased 0.60% week - on - week and decreased 8.01% year - on - year in the week of July 4th [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The US Federal Appellate Court hearing on July 31st may determine the direction of subsequent tariff frictions. The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on the US financial market, especially on US Treasuries and the US dollar exchange rate. Concerns about stagflation and trading partners selling US Treasuries are major risks [10][11]. - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell exacerbates market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. However, the uncertainty of US inflation amplified by tariffs will not fundamentally change due to the change of the Fed Chairman [13]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative can help ease the inertia of low inflation. The decline in PPI may narrow, and its rebound amplitude may depend on the stabilization of real estate and commodity export prices [15]. 3.2 High - Frequency Data and Comparison of Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names.

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulation policies, supply-side changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush" in the first half of the year, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy enterprises [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 47 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. 39% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 55% saw a decrease, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included DMF, potassium chloride, and acetone, while hydrochloric acid and aniline were among the largest decliners [9][33] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude futures closing at $68.45 per barrel (up 2.93%) and Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel (up 3.02%). The U.S. average daily crude oil production was reported at 13.385 million barrels, a decrease of 48,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 850,000 barrels year-on-year [9][10] Product Price Changes - The average price of polysilicon increased to 31,200 CNY/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week, while glyphosate prices rose to 25,501 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.79% increase. The gross profit margin for glyphosate was reported at 10.85%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 129.88% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several investment themes: the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy measures. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and various technology firms in the electronic materials sector [10][11] Key Stocks for July - The report highlights "Satellite Chemical" and "Anji Technology" as key stocks for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in their recent financial reports [11][17]

Key Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating that the logic chain of "industry breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification" has gradually been established, leading to a catalytic market environment [3][6] - The report emphasizes the robust growth of Jitu Express, with a total global parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. The Southeast Asian market showed particularly strong performance, with parcel volume increasing by 65.9% to 1.69 billion pieces [3][7][8] Strategy Research - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high growth cycle, supported by the rapid increase in demand for domestic large models and the upcoming IPOs of key domestic GPU manufacturers, which fill the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [6] - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers as potential investment opportunities [6] Transportation Sector - Jitu Express's Q2 2025 performance is highlighted, with a total parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces, marking a new high since its listing. The company has optimized its network and efficiency, significantly enhancing its automation capabilities [7][8] - The Southeast Asian market's strong performance is attributed to strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which have led to substantial growth in cross-border e-commerce [9] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in Jitu Express's business volume driven by the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia, while the optimization of operations in the Chinese market is expected to release profit margins under the "anti-involution" policy [9]

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, particularly following the recent political bureau meeting [4] - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with June CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and PPI declining by 3.6% [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an expected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan this year [19][20] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82% and CSI 300 futures up by 1.75% [2][12] - Commodity futures also saw significant gains, with coking coal futures increasing by 7.00% and iron ore futures up by 3.87% [2][12] - In the bond market, the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.67%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.27% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an asset allocation hierarchy favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash, indicating a bullish outlook on equities [6] - The recommendation for stocks is to overweight, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][6] - Bonds are advised to be underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][6] Industry Insights - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, leading the market with a 6.06% increase, driven by supportive policies [36] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, increasing by 3.94% [36] - The automotive industry faced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.56%, indicating potential challenges despite overall market growth [36] Economic Policy Developments - The government has introduced new employment support policies aimed at stabilizing jobs, including expanding loan support for maintaining employment [20] - The NDRC has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to promote employment among key groups [20] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance the inclusive childcare service system, which is expected to support family stability and economic growth [20]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 2 周周报 新能源汽车方面，根据中汽协数据，6 月新能源汽车产销分别完成 126.8 万 辆和 132.9 万辆，同比分别增长 26.4%和 26.7%，渗透率达到 45.8%；根据 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，6 月我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh， 环比增长 1.9%，同比增长 35.9%；下半年随着新能源新车型不断推出，新 能源汽车产品力不断增强，2025 年国内新能源汽车销量有望保持高增，带动 电池和材料需求增长。新技术方面，固态电池产业化趋势明确，后续关注固 态电池相关材料和设备企业验证进展。光伏方面，中央经济工作会议明确提 出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，中央财经委员会明确将依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，在顶层指引之下 国家市场监管总局、工信部联合印发《计量支撑产业新质生产力发展行动方 案（2025—2030 年）》，或通过提升先进制造标准推动产能升级迭代，光伏供 给侧提质、增效主线明确。在"反内卷"大趋势下，硅业分会等第三方机构表 示 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

Core Insights - The domestic computing power industry chain has achieved a breakthrough in the logic chain of "industrial breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification," indicating that the industry is entering a catalytic phase [2][4] - Key domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Muxi Integration and Moer Thread, have had their IPO applications accepted, filling the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [5][6] - Huawei's computing power cluster performance is now comparable to NVIDIA, with significant advancements in AI model capabilities and infrastructure [6][9] Industry Overview - The performance of key companies in the industry chain, such as Industrial Fulian, has shown remarkable growth, with a forecasted net profit of 6.727 to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [7] - The demand side is witnessing rapid growth in the consumption of tokens by domestic large models, indicating a significant increase in computing power demand [8] - The acceleration of the domestic GPU listing wave, combined with the performance of hardware manufacturers and the growing demand for AI large models, suggests that the domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle [4][8] Key Company Developments - Muxi Integration has sold over 25,000 GPU products and has achieved large-scale applications in various AI public computing platforms [5] - Moer Thread has successfully developed and mass-produced four generations of high-performance GPU architectures, launching multiple high-performance GPU accelerator cards and integrated solutions [5] - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 AI cloud service has achieved a significant performance leap, surpassing NVIDIA's flagship products in several key metrics, indicating a milestone breakthrough in China's AI infrastructure [6][9] Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in token consumption for domestic large models, with daily usage reaching 16.4 trillion tokens, reflects a strong upward trend in computing power demand [8] - The performance of Industrial Fulian's AI-related business has seen over 60% revenue growth in AI servers, indicating a sustained positive outlook for the computing power industry chain [7] - The overall trend suggests that the domestic computing power market is likely to experience further catalysis, with recommendations to focus on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers [2][4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in the Southeast Asian market, with a year-on-year package volume growth of 65.9% to 1.69 billion packages in Q2 2025. The total global package volume reached 7.39 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and operational efficiency improvements in China, which may enhance profitability under the "anti-involution" policy [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total package volume of 7.39 billion in Q2 2025, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth. The Southeast Asian market contributed significantly with a 65.9% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 14.7% growth [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively [5][7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like Shopee and Lazada. The company is positioned to capitalize on this growth, maintaining its market leadership [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to ease price competition, allowing for improved profitability in domestic operations as the company optimizes its efficiency [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.7, 18.1, and 12.8 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 63.056 billion RMB in 2023 to 109.376 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [7][9].