Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas to focus on in June include safety regulation policies, supply chain changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [1][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 1, the average price tracking 100 chemical products showed that 23 products increased in price, 45 decreased, and 32 remained stable. The month-on-month average price changes were 26.73% up, 63.00% down, and 10.27% stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31% in the Yangtze River Delta) and TDI, while those with the largest decreases included soft foam polyether and liquid chlorine [9][32] Oil and Gas Market - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude futures closing at $60.79 per barrel (down 1.20%) and Brent crude at $63.90 per barrel (down 1.36%). The U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.47 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. Gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. has increased, with total refined oil demand averaging 19.89 million barrels per day, down 0.2% year-on-year [9][10] Chlorantraniliprole Industry - The chlorantraniliprole industry has experienced capacity damage, with the largest producer, Youdao Chemical, having a production capacity of 11,000 tons. The market supply has significantly reduced, and current inventory levels are low due to previous market conditions. The price for chlorantraniliprole is expected to rise to 250,000-280,000 yuan per ton in the short term [9][10] Acrylic Acid Market - The price of acrylic acid has decreased, with the average market price at 7,050 yuan per ton, down 8.44% from the previous week. Supply has increased due to the resumption of production in Shandong, while downstream demand remains cautious [9][10] Investment Recommendations - As of June 1, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 21.66, at the 58.33% historical percentile. The oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 10.81, at the 13.47% historical percentile. Key investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, rapid development in downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand due to policy support [10][11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is likely to maintain a "consolidation" phase in June, with large-cap stocks expected to see a recovery [3][12][13] - Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, with April industrial profits continuing a recovery trend, although both volume and price have declined [12][31] - The "barbell strategy" remains effective in the market, but there has been a notable shift towards a "concentration" phenomenon, with profit effects concentrating in the banking sector and small-cap stocks [32][33] Group 2 - The report highlights that the global supply-demand dynamics for chlorantraniliprole may be reshaped due to production capacity disruptions, with prices already entering a rebound phase [38][40] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are gaining global influence, with significant participation in the 2025 ASCO annual meeting, showcasing advancements in drug development [38][40] - The report emphasizes the accelerating penetration of autonomous delivery vehicles, with costs approaching or even lower than human labor costs, indicating a significant shift in logistics [43][44] Group 3 - The report notes that the AI industry chain remains robust, with strong demand for computing infrastructure and significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in the context of major tech companies [46][48] - The report suggests that the market is currently in a box range, with risk appetite suppressed by fluctuating global trade policies and concerns over U.S. Treasury yields [48] - The report identifies key sectors to watch, including innovative pharmaceuticals, autonomous driving, and stablecoins, which are expected to have strong catalysts for growth [48]

强于大市 化工行业周报 20250602 国际油价、丙烯酸价格下跌，氯虫苯甲酰胺行业 产能受损 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年"抢出口"等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（05.26-06.01）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 23 个品种价格上涨，45 个品种价 格下跌，32 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 26.73 ...

强于大市 银行业周报 存款利率调降稳定息差 按申万一级行业分类标准，银行板块本周上涨 0.04%，上周上涨 0.61%，银 行板块涨跌幅由高到低排名 18/31，较上周排名下降 10 位。个股方面 A 股 42 家银行有 26 家上涨。拉长时间来看，年初至今银行板块涨幅 7.70%，在全行 业中排名第四，红利仍然是银行的主线，关注银行股投资价值，建议关注招 商银行、农业银行。 银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 5 月 20 日，六家国有大行及招商银行、光大银行率先下调了存款挂牌利 率，随后几日，其余股份行以及部分城农商行纷纷下调利率，目前仅郑 州银行尚未跟进调降存款利率。本次调降中，五大行活期利率下调 5 bp 至 0.05%；定期整存整取 3 个月期、半年期、1 年期、2 年期均下调 15bp， 分别为 0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；3 年期和 5 年期均下调 25 bp， 分别至 1.25%和 1.30%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均 下调 15 bp。7 天期通知存款利率下调 15 bp 至 0.30%。 5 月 7 日央行宣布要"实施好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down. In April, the month - on - month growth of US personal consumption expenditure was 0.2%, and the nominal year - on - year growth was 5.4%. The personal savings rate rose to 4.9%. The growth of commodity retail was relatively flat, and the improvement of the year - on - year growth of the Redbook same - store retail index in May was not obvious. If the Trump administration wins the appeal on the tariff issue, its trade policy stance may become stronger [2]. - The producer price index continues to decline. From May 26th to May 31st, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.30% month - on - month and 6.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.77% year - on - year. The production material price index decreased by 0.60% month - on - month and 10.46% year - on - year in the week of May 23rd [2]. - From May 1st to May 28th, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 245,000 square meters, slightly lower than the 248,000 square meters in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down, and the producer price index continues to decline. There are also data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, including their month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2][16][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are comparisons between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [20]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - There are data on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, and the implied prospects of the US federal funds futures for interest rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest rate hikes/cuts [80][82][84]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, 30 large and medium - sized cities' commercial housing trading area, LME copper spot settlement price, Brent crude oil futures settlement price, etc. [91][95][101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][146][148].

Macroeconomic Overview - The economic situation in China showed some marginal changes in late May 2025, with a temporary tariff agreement reached between China and the US on May 12, leading to some improvement in export conditions, although exports to the US continued to decline [1][2] - Domestic economic activity indicators remained stable in late May, with high furnace operating rates and grinding machine utilization rates holding steady, indicating a maintained high level of activity in the automotive sector [10][19] - Real estate sales remained weak, with noticeable price corrections in some second-hand housing markets, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities also saw a temporary decline in second-hand housing price indices [19][20] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI data for May indicated a mild recovery in economic sentiment, although price levels faced downward pressure. The PMI was slightly higher than in April, with improvements in import and export indices, but domestic demand remained weak [23][28] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continued to show signs of weakness, with property sales remaining low since the Spring Festival, particularly in second and third-tier cities. First-tier cities also experienced a phase of price correction in the second-hand housing market [19][20] Export and Trade - Despite a temporary improvement in export conditions due to the tariff agreement, the overall export situation remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff frictions and diminishing "export rush" effects posing challenges for future export trends [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales in the new energy vehicle sector, with significant growth in sales figures for major manufacturers [2][24]. - It emphasizes the optimistic growth in photovoltaic demand, particularly in emerging economies, and anticipates supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector [1]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with improving profitability, such as wind power machinery and components, as well as battery and material sectors benefiting from rising demand [1]. - It notes the ongoing push for hydrogen energy development, with a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In May 2025, BYD sold 382,500 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.28% [2][24]. - Other manufacturers like Xiaopeng and Li Auto also reported significant sales growth, with increases of 230% and 16.70% respectively [24]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The report indicates that the first quarter of 2025 saw rapid growth in photovoltaic installations in China, with optimistic demand forecasts for both domestic and international markets [1]. - It mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are promoting green electricity connections to enhance local consumption of renewable energy [24]. Hydrogen Energy - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation announced the establishment of a hydrogen energy investment fund with an initial scale of 5 billion yuan, targeting the entire hydrogen energy supply chain [24]. Electric Equipment - The report anticipates continued high demand for electric grid equipment due to ongoing reforms in the domestic power system and strong overseas demand for grid upgrades [1]. - It suggests focusing on companies benefiting from high demand for ultra-high voltage and distribution network equipment [1]. Price Observations - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of lithium battery materials, photovoltaic materials, and auxiliary materials, indicating fluctuations and market dynamics [14][15][21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 12.67 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown consistent growth in product sales and operating performance, with a 23.17% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 2.33 billion for 2024, and a 22.50% increase in net profit to RMB 398 million [5][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 also reflects growth, with revenue reaching RMB 603 million, a 13.47% increase year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 102 million, up 15.77% [5][12]. - The company is successfully releasing production capacity for specialty surfactants, contributing to sustained growth in operating performance [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 2,332.98 million, with a net profit of RMB 397.78 million, reflecting a growth rate of 23.17% and 22.50% respectively compared to 2023 [10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 610.79 million, a 25.09% increase year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 112.20 million, up 24.61% [11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 603.41 million, a 13.47% increase from the same period in 2024, with net profit of RMB 101.77 million, up 15.77% [12]. Production and Sales Growth - The production and sales of specialty surfactants in 2024 reached 183,100 tons and 179,300 tons respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 30.66% and 26.85% [9]. - In the first quarter of 2025, production and sales were 45,500 tons and 47,300 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.08% and 16.99% [14]. - The company is focusing on niche products and expanding into growth areas such as wet electronic chemicals and UV-curable surfactants, which are expected to enhance profitability [9][10]. Capacity Utilization and Innovation - The capacity utilization rate for the company's facilities improved, with the Huangma Shangyi factory achieving 82.36% in 2024, up 17.08 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company invested RMB 88.40 million in R&D in 2024, a 20.40% increase from 2023, and secured multiple new patents, enhancing its competitive edge [9][10]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of RMB 0.84, 0.98, and 1.14 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.0x, 12.9x, and 11.1x [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Hold" due to the expected recovery in profitability and industry demand [2][7]. Core Views - The company is projected to turn a profit in 2024, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1 2025. The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of the agricultural protection industry and the orderly advancement of the company's product layout [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 RMB per 10 shares to all shareholders, indicating a commitment to returning value to investors [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.68 billion RMB, a decrease of 11.88% year-on-year, but net profit reached 103 million RMB, a substantial increase of 122.17% [10][11]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.32 billion RMB, down 7.44% year-on-year, but net profit turned positive at 71 million RMB, a significant recovery from losses [12]. - In Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.51 billion RMB, a 3.02% increase year-on-year, and net profit soared to 50 million RMB, reflecting a remarkable growth of 1747.04% [13]. Business Segment Performance - The agricultural protection segment generated revenue of 3.59 billion RMB in 2024, down 15.39% year-on-year, but showed an increase in production and sales volume [10]. - The pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of 1.29 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.32% year-on-year, with ongoing efforts to expand client relationships and project validation [10]. - The functional chemicals segment saw a revenue increase of 61.82% year-on-year, reaching 306 million RMB, driven by growth in personal care and new energy products [10]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 26.06% in 2024, up 6.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 2.67%, an increase of 9.33 percentage points [10]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 26.15%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin improved to 4.63% [10]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 279 million RMB, 400 million RMB, and 514 million RMB respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.31 RMB, 0.44 RMB, and 0.56 RMB [7][9].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including companies like SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Guizhou Moutai, indicating a focus on logistics, technology, and consumer goods sectors [1] - The report emphasizes the use of an AI industry allocation system based on the "cycle-signal-momentum" framework, which aims to enhance investment strategies in a rapidly changing market environment [5][6] - The oil and gas sector, particularly CNOOC Development, is identified as a key player in marine energy services, with a strong focus on digital transformation and green low-carbon business strategies [9][10] Company Analysis - CNOOC Development has shown significant revenue growth from CNY 19.376 billion in 2016 to CNY 52.517 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.27% [10] - The company's net profit increased from CNY 0.622 billion to CNY 3.656 billion during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 24.78% [10] - In Q1 2025, CNOOC Development reported revenue of CNY 10.074 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.42%, and a net profit of CNY 0.594 billion, up 18.48% [10] Industry Insights - The marine oil and gas service market is expected to grow, with China's self-sufficiency rates for oil and gas needing improvement, highlighting the importance of marine oil and gas in energy security [11] - By 2025, marine oil and gas exploration and development investments are projected to reach USD 220 billion, accounting for 36% of global oil and gas exploration and development investments [11] - The report notes that advancements in marine oil extraction technology and digitalization are expected to benefit both oil service companies and oil and gas firms [11][12]