证券研究报告 中钢国际 (000928 CH) 海外占比持续提升，盈利能力再优化 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 目标价(人民币): | 9.80 | 公司发布半年报：25H1 实现营收 67.45 亿元（yoy-25.66%），归母净利 4.24 亿元（yoy+1.11%），扣非净利 4.22 亿元（yoy+13.01%）。其中 Q2 实现营收 32.26 亿元（yoy-22.67%，qoq-8.31%），归母净利 1.93 亿元 （yoy-5.88%，qoq-16.74%），国内钢铁行业景气承压导致收入下行，基本 符合我们的预期（2.0 亿元），我们认为海外业务景气较好，国内钢铁行业 或受益"反内卷"迎来转机，公司有望保持稳健增长，维持"买入"评级。 海外业务占比大幅提升至 74%，综合毛利率继续提升 收现比下降付现比提升，经营性现金流同比承压 25H1 公司经营性现金流净额-29.12 亿元，同比多流出 13.55 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 27.231 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.056 billion RMB, up 26.6% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue growth of 8.59% and net profit growth of 36.72%, indicating continuous improvement in profitability [1][7] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the industry through product upgrades, diversification into new businesses, and global capacity expansion [1] Summary by Sections Television Business - The company's television business remains robust, holding the largest retail market share in China. The brand's price index has improved, indicating competitiveness in mid-to-high-end products. In Q3, online and offline retail sales showed year-on-year increases of 20.3% and 6.89%, respectively, with retail prices rising by 12.5% and 17.4% [2] - Despite a 5% year-on-year decline in the domestic television export value in H1 2025, the company has mitigated this through capacity adjustments in Mexico and Vietnam, as well as a focus on large-screen products. The export decline has narrowed to 0.5% in July 2025, with signs of recovery in Europe and Oceania [2] New Display and New Business - In H1 2025, the new display business generated revenue of 3.434 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.43%. The laser display applications are expanding into commercial and automotive sectors, showing potential for new growth. Overseas revenue from commercial displays grew by 43% year-on-year, highlighting global expansion potential [3] - The company is also advancing in cloud services and AI-related products, with plans to launch AI smart headphones and lightweight AI glasses [3] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.37%, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from an increased proportion of Mini LED products and stable panel prices. Despite rising marketing expenses, the net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The report forecasts net profits of 2.59 billion RMB, 2.89 billion RMB, and 3.23 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.99 RMB, 2.22 RMB, and 2.48 RMB [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 26.29 [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 32.049 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.613 billion, up 0.24% year-over-year [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its business in high-growth areas such as marine energy, communication, optical communication, and smart grid [1]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing development of AI new optical fibers, including the launch of hollow-core anti-resonant optical fibers with advanced loss values [3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 13.59%, down 2.96 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and rising raw material costs [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 5.03% in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to approximately RMB 20 billion for submarine cables and marine engineering products, indicating strong future revenue potential [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for the company is RMB 3.242 billion in 2025, RMB 3.893 billion in 2026, and RMB 4.733 billion in 2027 [4]. - The report assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's expansion in the AI new optical fiber sector, with a target price increase from RMB 20.37 to RMB 26.29 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the ramp-up of its 1.6T optical engine products and effective cost management [7][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in the AI computing sector, particularly in the 800G optical communication industry [10][11]. - The report projects significant revenue growth, with a forecasted revenue of RMB 5.736 billion in 2025, representing a 76.41% increase year-on-year [6][11]. Financial Summary - The target price is set at RMB 164.16, with the closing price as of August 25 at RMB 129.35 [3][11]. - The company's market capitalization is RMB 100.559 billion, with an average daily trading volume of RMB 2.508 million over the past six months [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.456 billion, a 58% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 899 million, a 37% increase year-on-year [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 50.79%, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in revenue structure [9]. Growth Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 8.710 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.84% from 2025 to 2027 [6][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 3.601 billion by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 18.42% [6][11]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the CPO field and anticipates continued growth driven by the demand for 1.6T related products [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.52 [1][4]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with stable growth in foreign trade revenue and rapid development of its own brand in the domestic market. Despite a slight decline in revenue in Q2, the overall performance remains positive [1][2]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with full coverage of U.S. orders from its Vietnam factory and accelerating new product introductions in Romania. It is also actively exploring non-U.S. clients and enhancing cross-border e-commerce efforts [1][2]. - The domestic market is benefiting from the rapid development of its own brand, leading to a significant increase in domestic revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 2.189 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 133 million, up 4.9%. The net profit margin was 6.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - Domestic revenue reached RMB 541 million, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.4%, up 6.6 percentage points. In contrast, overseas revenue was RMB 1.64 billion, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, but with a declining gross margin of 19.0%, down 3.8 percentage points [2][3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio increased slightly to 15.5%, with sales expenses rising due to investments in brand and channel development [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency, which has helped maintain a relatively stable profit margin despite increased expenses [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted, with net profits projected at RMB 320 million, RMB 373 million, and RMB 431 million respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are RMB 0.97, RMB 1.13, and RMB 1.30 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 16 times for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 15.52, reflecting a slight increase from the previous target price of RMB 13.78 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is deepening its layout in the AR industry chain, particularly through the acquisition of Shanghai Aolai, which will enhance its capabilities in SiC substrate optical waveguide business [1][2]. - The merger is expected to create synergies between the company and Sunyu, alleviating financial pressures and strengthening their core competitiveness in wafer-level micro-nano optical devices [2]. - The company has been actively investing in key segments of the AR industry chain, including acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its technological capabilities and market position [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Activities - The company has made several strategic investments, including acquiring Yuguang Technology and increasing its stake in Kangnait, which will enhance its capabilities in nano-imprinting and ion beam etching technologies [3]. - The company plans to provide a $100 million equity-linked loan to Haylo to support its acquisition of UK-based Micro-LED manufacturer Plessey, potentially yielding a 25% share of the transaction value [3]. Market Outlook - The global market for AI smart glasses is expected to grow rapidly, with new products being launched, such as Meta's Hypernova smart glasses priced at $800, aimed at stimulating market demand [4]. - The company anticipates that advancements in AI and AR glasses will drive growth in precision components, benefiting its business [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025 to be 3.288 billion RMB, with an upward revision for 2026 and 2027 to 4.248 billion RMB and 5.056 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 36.60 RMB, reflecting a 30x PE valuation for 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.7 billion RMB for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, and a net profit of 1.76 billion RMB, down 13.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on innovation in dining experiences and menu offerings, with a cautious approach to expanding its main brand while nurturing new brands like "Red Pomegranate" and "Woodpecker" [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 95% for 1H25, consistent with the previous year [1] - The company is expected to see improvements in same-store sales in 2H25 as customer experience enhancements take effect [2] Revenue and Profitability - The restaurant operating revenue for 1H25 was 18.58 billion RMB, a decline of 9.0% year-on-year, while the takeaway business saw a significant increase of 59.6% to 928 million RMB [2] - The overall average table turnover rate decreased to 3.8 times per day, down 0.4 times year-on-year, indicating pressure on sales due to high base effects [2] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 was 60.2%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased costs of raw materials and consumables [3] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.5%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of operational adjustments on profitability [3] Brand Expansion and New Initiatives - As of the end of 1H25, the company operated 1,363 Haidilao restaurants, with a net addition of 28 franchise stores during the period [4] - The "Red Pomegranate" initiative is progressing steadily, with 14 other restaurant brands operating a total of 126 locations, contributing to a revenue increase of 227% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to focus on optimizing existing brand models and supporting potential projects in 2H25 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 17.7%, 13.8%, and 10.5% to 4.314 billion RMB, 4.767 billion RMB, and 5.281 billion RMB, respectively [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 20.92 HKD, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [5][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has seen a significant inflow of trading funds, with over 90 billion yuan in financing last week, marking the highest activity since 2016 [2] - Active foreign capital has turned to net inflow for the first time since October last year, indicating potential for further accumulation [2][3] - The new issuance of public funds has been recovering, with nearly 20 billion shares launched last week, reflecting an increase in equity fund offerings [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The second batch of 14 sci-tech bond ETFs has been submitted for approval, expected to launch quickly, enhancing liquidity in the market [4] - The performance of the construction industry shows signs of marginal recovery, with cement supply and demand improving slightly [3] - Industrial freight volumes remain strong, with coal prices continuing to rise, indicating resilience in production despite mixed performance across sectors [3] Group 3: Real Estate Policy Changes - Recent policy adjustments in Shanghai align with the "city-specific measures" approach proposed during the Two Sessions, aiming to stabilize the real estate market [5] - The new policies in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to accelerate the recovery process in the real estate sector [5] Group 4: Company Performance Highlights - Shangfeng Cement reported a revenue of 2.272 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.53% year-on-year, despite a slight revenue decline [7] - Weichuang Electric achieved a revenue of 897 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 16.39% increase, driven by stable growth in its industrial control business [8] - Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 28.48%, indicating strong performance in high-end product development [12] Group 5: Strategic Developments - The U.S. tariff policy has evolved through three main eras, impacting trade relations and diplomatic strategies significantly [5] - The focus on equal exchange in tariff negotiations has shifted the power dynamics from Congress to the presidency, enhancing the role of trade in foreign policy [5] Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - The logistics and chemical sectors are showing signs of recovery, with logistics demand stabilizing and chemical business benefiting from advantageous product categories [9] - The pet industry is experiencing accelerated growth, with a 32.72% increase in revenue for Guibao Pet in H1 2025, showcasing strong product and marketing capabilities [22] - TCL Zhonghuan's revenue decreased by 17.4% in H1 2025 due to market pressures, but ongoing improvements in cost management and product layout are expected to drive recovery [31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.486 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 8.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.4 billion RMB, an increase of 10.72% year-over-year [1] - The second quarter showed significant improvement with a revenue of 4.243 billion RMB, down 5.33% year-over-year but with a net profit of 0.851 billion RMB, up 31.24% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.10 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 0.924 billion RMB, which represents approximately 66% of the net profit for the period [1] - The company is optimistic about its product operational capabilities and overseas expansion potential, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Revenue and Product Performance - The mobile gaming business generated 8.239 billion RMB in H1 2025, a decline of 8.03% year-over-year, with the highest monthly revenue from global releases reaching approximately 2.2 billion RMB [2] - New products launched in early 2025, such as "Time Explosion" and "Heroes Don't Flash," performed well, while long-term products continued to contribute to revenue [2] - Overseas revenue was 2.724 billion RMB, down 6.01% year-over-year, accounting for 32.10% of total revenue [2] Product and IP Development - The company has a rich reserve of products and IPs, including adaptations of popular titles like "Douluo Dalu" and "Doupocangqiong" [3] - The self-developed game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" has entered public testing, aligning with the company's strategy of product excellence [3] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, building a comprehensive AI-enabled ecosystem centered around its self-developed industry model "Xiao Qi" [3] Financial Metrics and Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.71%, a decrease of 2.92 percentage points year-over-year, influenced by increased operating costs [4] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 6.09 percentage points to 51.97%, as previous growth-phase games entered maturity, leading to reduced traffic investment [4] - The net profit margin increased by 2.81 percentage points year-over-year to 16.51% due to reduced sales expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 2.831 billion RMB, 3.137 billion RMB, and 3.429 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 RMB, 1.42 RMB, and 1.55 RMB [5] - The target price is adjusted to 23.04 RMB based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025, up from a previous target of 19.33 RMB [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in Q2 performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter, indicating a strong recovery trend [1] - The international military trade and low-altitude economy sectors present substantial growth opportunities for the company, supporting a positive long-term development outlook [1] - The company successfully raised 4 billion RMB in July, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and support the development of aviation weaponry [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 146.28 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 32.35%, with a net profit of 11.36 billion RMB, down 29.78% year-over-year. However, Q2 showed a revenue of 87.95 billion RMB, a year-over-year decline of 27.51% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 50.76% [1] - The core aviation manufacturing business generated revenue of 145.39 billion RMB with a gross margin of 12.25%, slightly down by 0.18 percentage points year-over-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to product delivery schedules and structural adjustments [2] Cost and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio increased slightly to 3.68%, up 0.43 percentage points year-over-year. Notably, sales expenses surged by 185.67% due to increased exhibition costs, while R&D expenses decreased by 67.88% due to project timelines [3] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 30.87 billion RMB, compared to a negative 58.95 billion RMB in the same period last year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 35.22 billion RMB, 43.69 billion RMB, and 54.50 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.24, 1.54, and 1.92 RMB. The target price has been raised to 80.96 RMB, reflecting a 65 times PE valuation for 2025 [5]