Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication sector and related sub-sectors, including communication equipment manufacturing [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the AI industry, particularly the historical high market capitalization of Nvidia, which reached $3.92 trillion, surpassing Apple's previous record of $3.915 trillion [2][12]. - CoreWeave has deployed Nvidia's GB300 NVL72 system, achieving a 50-fold increase in inference model output compared to the previous generation [14]. - Century Internet has raised its revenue guidance from 9.1-9.3 billion yuan (10%-13% YoY growth) to 9.15-9.35 billion yuan (11%-13% YoY growth), reflecting optimism about new project launches and operational efficiency [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 0.10% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% [12]. - Nvidia's stock price surged to $160.98, contributing to a positive sentiment in the domestic supply chain stocks [2][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on the AI computing power chain in the communication industry for 2025, highlighting companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Ruijie Network [3]. - Core companies in asset value reassessment include China Mobile and China Telecom, while new productivity sectors like satellite internet and low-altitude economy are also emphasized [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in the AI computing power supply chain, including sectors like optical modules, copper connections, AIDC, switches, and liquid cooling [12][14]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price 164.78 yuan) - Xinyi Sheng (Buy, target price 128.76 yuan) - Tianfu Communication (Buy, target price 119.12 yuan) - Taicheng Light (Hold, target price 99.01 yuan) - Ruijie Network (Buy, target price 88.70 yuan) [8][52].

Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, raising the deficit rate by 3-4 percentage points compared to 2010-2019 levels[2] - The average deficit rate over the next decade is projected to reach 6.4%, potentially increasing to 6.7% if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028[2][3] - The bill's implementation may lead to a fiscal deficit of approximately 7% in 2026, with short-term growth support for Q4 2025 and 2026[1][3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The bill is anticipated to provide short-term economic growth support, but its long-term effectiveness is expected to diminish, potentially exacerbating inflation[3][4] - Independent institutions estimate that the bill will only contribute an additional 0.4% to U.S. GDP over the next decade, significantly lower than the White House's estimate of 2.4%-2.7%[3] Group 3: Social and Political Consequences - The bill may worsen income and welfare distribution in the U.S., intensifying political polarization, as high-income individuals and corporations benefit more from tax cuts[5] - The average annual tax cut for the wealthiest families is projected to be $12,000, while the poorest families may face a net loss of $1,600 annually[5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The bill could further undermine U.S. debt sustainability, with total government debt expected to rise from 124% of GDP[4] - The vision of reducing the deficit post-2029 is considered overly optimistic, with potential increases in interest costs and lower-than-expected GDP growth[4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Technology Theme Index (HSSCITI.HI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index focuses on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, ensuring high "technology purity" by excluding industries such as pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles, which may dilute the thematic investment returns[2][28][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The index selects stocks listed in Hong Kong that qualify for Southbound trading under the Stock Connect program[34] 2. It focuses on companies in the technology sector, including software, hardware, semiconductors, and internet services, while excluding non-core technology industries[29][34] 3. The index uses free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual stock weight capped at 10%[34] 4. The index is rebalanced semi-annually to ensure alignment with its thematic focus[34] **Model Evaluation**: The index demonstrates a high level of thematic focus, capturing the growth potential of the TMT sector while avoiding the risks associated with unrelated industries[29][34] Model Backtesting Results - **Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Technology Theme Index**: - 1-year annualized return: 55.90% - 3-year annualized return: 8.83% - Comparative performance: Outperformed the Hang Seng Index, which had 1-year and 3-year annualized returns of 36.31% and 3.55%, respectively[43] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Technology Sector Focus **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor emphasizes the concentration of investments in the TMT sector to maximize exposure to technology-driven growth opportunities[29][34] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Stocks are selected based on their classification within technology-related industries such as software, hardware, and semiconductors[29][34] 2. Non-technology sectors like pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles are excluded to maintain thematic purity[29][34] 3. The weighting scheme ensures a balanced representation of sub-sectors within the TMT domain, with significant allocations to internet platforms, hardware, and software companies[29][33] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures the growth dynamics of the technology sector while minimizing exposure to unrelated industries, enhancing the thematic investment appeal[29][34] Factor Backtesting Results - **Technology Sector Focus Factor**: - Sector allocation: Information Technology (66.55%), Consumer Discretionary (18.25%), Communication Services (15.20%)[33] - Sub-sector allocation: Hardware (27.35%), Software (25.75%), Semiconductors (13.45%), Media (14.42%)[31][33] - Top contributors: Internet platform companies (e.g., Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan) accounted for approximately 44% of the index weight[29][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights sectors with high growth potential and cost-effectiveness, including financials, consumer staples, and technology hardware, with a focus on service consumption and software services in the medium term [1] - The report indicates that the EPS of Chinese listed companies is expected to rise for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a significant rebound in market performance anticipated following improvements in EPS expectations [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the correlation between EPS growth and nominal economic growth is strong, suggesting that structural changes in the stock market and improvements in corporate profitability are crucial for capturing market opportunities [3] Group 2 - The report identifies consumer services, durable goods, and technology hardware as sectors with high ROE levels that are likely to improve further, indicating strong investment potential [7][18] - It notes that sectors such as software services, consumer staples, and household products maintain high levels of cost-effectiveness, while technology hardware and durable goods are not significantly overvalued [7][20] - The report provides a comparative analysis of PEG ratios, indicating that sectors like diversified finance, materials, and durable goods have PEG levels below 1, suggesting attractive valuations [20][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the importance of earnings performance in the context of upcoming earnings disclosures, highlighting that sectors with improved economic conditions provide a solid foundation for market performance [4] - It mentions that the Hong Kong market's liquidity is primarily driven by capital inflows, which are influenced by the market's comparative advantages [3] - The report outlines that the valuation levels of Hong Kong stocks remain attractive compared to global markets, with a current forward PE of around 10x [53][47]

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing difficulty for investors in the bond market as of mid-2025, with limited downward interest rate space, low coupon rates, narrow volatility ranges, intensified trading competition, and excessive strategy exploration [1][12] - Investors are focusing on "micro-operation" strategies such as bond switching, heavy positions in credit bond ETFs, narrowing spreads, and marginal bidding in primary auctions to capture alpha opportunities, although these strategies are becoming crowded [1][2][4] - The overall direction of the bond market is slightly bullish, but the space for further gains is limited, and the micro-operation trends may still have some inertia [1][4] Strategy One: "Diminishing Effect" of Bond Switching - There has been a rising interest in bond switching strategies among investors, particularly in the context of new and old bonds [2][13] - Historical data indicates that bond switching can enhance returns, but signs of diminishing effectiveness have emerged since Q2 2025 due to increased trading competition [2][18] - The conversion period for new bonds to active bonds has significantly shortened, and the interest rate spread between new and old bonds has narrowed, leading to potential overextension of strategy returns [2][18] Strategy Two: "Extreme" Credit Bond ETF Heavy Positioning - The rapid expansion of benchmark credit bond ETFs has led to significant changes in credit bond pricing [3][21] - The average valuation of index component bonds has compressed, with a notable decrease in spreads compared to ordinary credit bonds [3][21] - Investors are advised to avoid overly crowded index component bonds due to the severe valuation distortions that have occurred [3][25] Strategy Three: Flattening "All" Spreads - The bond market is generally bullish, but the downward space for key active bonds like the 10-year government bond is limited [4][12] - Certain bond types still present value opportunities, including 20-year government bonds and AAA-rated bank subordinated bonds [4][12] - Investors should be cautious in participating in trades related to long-end credit spreads due to the lack of support from insurance premiums and potential market volatility [4][12] Strategy Four: Increasing Marginal Bidding in Primary Auctions - There has been a rise in the enthusiasm for using marginal bidding strategies in the primary market for arbitrage between primary and secondary markets [5][12] - The historical data shows that the marginal bidding multiples for 10-year government bonds have reached record highs, reflecting the strategy's increased accuracy in a narrow trading environment [5][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that recent Trump policies have made progress in areas such as finance, deregulation, and tariffs. The market has started to price in the medium - term "Goldilocks" scenario, bypassing short - term mild stagflation. There is a path from the current short - term mild stagflation (economic decline and inflation rise) to the "Goldilocks" scenario, and the probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policy combinations. However, the stability of this path remains to be confirmed [7]. 3. Summary according to Related Content Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act - **Deficit Impact**: By 2035, the act will increase national debt issuance by $4.1 trillion. The fiscal deficit rates from 2026 - 2029 may all be above 7%, with the peak in 2028. Compared with not implementing the act, the deficit rates in 2026 and 2027 will increase by over 1 percentage point, which will have a certain stimulating effect on economic growth in the next two years [2]. - **Distribution Aspect**: Tax cuts are mainly TCJA extensions, tax - free deductions for tips and overtime pay, and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes, showing regressive characteristics. Expenditure cuts focus on reducing welfare such as Medicaid and SNAP, reducing student loans, and canceling clean - energy tax incentives, which have a greater impact on low - income groups. The final act may cause the income of the bottom fifth of the population to decline by 2.9% (about $700), while the income of the top 1% will increase by 1.9% (about $30,000) [2][3]. - **Debt Ceiling**: The federal debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, the largest increase in history. This avoids the debt - ceiling issue before next year's mid - term elections and provides room for fiscal expansion in the next 2 - 3 years. It also affects the fiscal strength in the second half of this year compared to the first half. Additionally, the rapid replenishment of the TGA account may temporarily affect liquidity [3]. - **Clause Deletion**: Deleting the previous "Capital Tax" Clause 899 reduces the uncertainty for foreign investors, and the market may have already priced it in [4]. - **Industry Aspect**: In the United States, sectors such as semiconductors, defense, aerospace, and traditional energy are expected to benefit, while subsidies for the new - energy, electric - vehicle, and medical industries will be reduced, which is a negative factor. In terms of overall economic impact, the profitability of the consumer sector may be affected by tariffs. In the short term, focus on interest - sensitive growth sectors, and in the medium term, focus on fiscal - related pro - cyclical sectors [4]. Tariff Policy Concerns - **Tariff Rate Setting**: The US will start sending letters to countries as early as Friday to set new tariff rates before July 9, which will be implemented from August 1. Negotiations with key countries such as Europe and Japan may continue, and the new tariffs may postpone the negotiations until August 1, with the possibility of further postponement [5]. - **Tariff Rate Ranges**: The approximate tariff rate ranges for different countries are: about 10% for allied countries, about 20% for friendly countries, and over 30% for competing countries (referring to the 40% tariff on Vietnam's trans - shipped goods). Trump's claimed 60% - 70% tariff may have a punitive nature. The market's reaction to tariffs may continue to show a blunted characteristic, with expected disturbances but limited amplitude [5]. - **US - Vietnam Agreement**: The US will impose at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods from other countries trans - shipped through Vietnam. This further strengthens the prediction of tariff rate ranges. The direct impact on China is limited, and the US's intention to promote Vietnam's industrial chain localization through origin - related regulations can be hedged by China's strong industrial chain advantages in capital goods and raw materials, but the demonstrative effect is worthy of vigilance [6]. Outlook on the US Economic Scenario - **Short - term Situation**: In the short term, the US economy is in a state of mild stagflation with economic decline and inflation rise. However, there is a path to the "Goldilocks" scenario. The probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policies, and appropriate trading can be considered [7]. - **Stability Uncertainty**: The stability of this path needs to be confirmed. The key for the US economy not to enter a recession is that financial conditions should not tighten rapidly, which requires the stability of the US stock and bond markets. The specific impact of tariffs remains to be seen after the consumption of excess inventory. If inflation or corporate profitability deviates from expectations, market trading may shift again [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long run, the reconstruction of the global trade, financial, and geopolitical order is a more fundamental factor beyond economic growth rates [9].

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 周观点：工信部召开座谈会，治理低 价无序竞争 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十七周） 周观点：工信部部长召开座谈会，治理低价无序竞争 7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业制造业 企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业 协会情况介绍和意见建议。14 家光伏行业头部企业及光伏行业协会负责人 作交流发言，介绍企业基本情况、面临的困难和问题，提出政策建议。会议 强调，要依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。我们认为本次会议工 信部部长主持，头部企业负责人参会，为历次光伏企业座谈会的最高规格， 明确了政府与行业协同推动供给侧改革的大方向，看好后续供给侧改革细则 陆续落地，推动行业供需格局重塑。 子行业观点 1）新能源车：6 月国内新能源车销量走势较好；2）储能：SPE 提出欧洲储 能十倍扩容目标，我们看好欧洲大储起量；3）光伏：工信部部长召开座谈 会，治理低价无序竞争；4）风电：国内海风招中标稳步推进。 重点公司及动态 1）宁 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huafeng Technology with an "Accumulate" rating and a target price of 59.86 RMB per share, based on a 75x PE valuation for 2026 [6][5]. Core Views - Huafeng Technology is positioned as a leader in high-speed connectors in China, benefiting from the increasing demand for short-distance interconnects driven by AI and domestic computing power expansion. The company is gradually releasing production capacity for high-speed line modules developed for major clients, which is expected to lead to sustained performance growth [1][15]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the communications sector, driven by the demand for high-speed interconnects in AI clusters, with a projected market size of 24.1 billion RMB by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 45% from 2025 to 2029 [2][16]. - In the defense sector, the company is expected to benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan" military budget increase, with a projected 7.2% year-on-year growth in military spending in 2025, enhancing the outlook for defense orders [3][17]. - The industrial segment is anticipated to see stable growth due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and the trend towards 800V high-voltage systems, with the high-voltage connector market projected to reach 33.7 billion RMB by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 42% from 2022 to 2026 [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1958, Huafeng Technology is a leading supplier of optical connectors and interconnection solutions in China, focusing on high-speed connectors and system interconnection solutions across communications, defense, and industrial sectors. The company has achieved significant milestones in developing high-speed backplane connectors, breaking the monopoly of foreign leaders in the domestic market [15][25]. Communications Sector - The company is deeply collaborating with major clients to meet the growing demand for high-speed interconnects in AI clusters. The increasing GPU computing power and bandwidth requirements are driving the need for higher signal transmission rates. The domestic high-speed backplane connector market is projected to reach 24.1 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 45% from 2025 to 2029 [2][16]. Defense Sector - The defense segment focuses on defense connectors and related system interconnection products. With the military budget expected to reach 1.78 trillion RMB in 2025, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, the company is well-positioned to capture growth in defense orders [3][17]. Industrial Sector - The industrial connectors primarily serve the new energy vehicle and rail transportation sectors. The market for high-voltage connectors in new energy vehicles is projected to reach 33.7 billion RMB by 2026, with a CAGR of 42% from 2022 to 2026. The company is also expanding its applications in drone and eVTOL systems [3][18].

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[2][5] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly, with an increase of only 74,000 jobs, down from 137,000 in May[8] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Hourly wage growth on a year-over-year basis decreased to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in May[9] - The average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, a decrease of 0.1 hours from the previous month[16] - Labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[17] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have decreased, with market pricing reflecting a cumulative cut of 51 basis points by 2025, down from 61 basis points[2][5] - The report indicates potential risks to employment growth in Q3 due to tariffs and immigration slowdowns, leading to a forecast of two preventive rate cuts in September and December[5][6] - The NFIB's hiring intentions suggest an increased risk of weakening job growth in the coming months[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The retail sales in Hong Kong showed a positive trend with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in May 2025, marking the first positive growth in 15 months, driven by factors such as improved local consumption and a rebound in tourism [2][3]. - Non-essential consumption has recovered, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in May 2025, significantly outpacing essential consumption, which is expected to positively impact commercial real estate [3][4]. - The commercial real estate sector remains at a low level of activity, but the recovery in retail sales is seen as a leading indicator for potential rent stabilization and improvement in occupancy rates [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, Hong Kong's retail sales reached HKD 31.3 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 7% after seasonal adjustments [1][2]. - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the "May Day" holiday and the positive effects of talent policies implemented in late 2022, which have started to show results in 2023 [2]. Non-Essential Consumption Recovery - Non-essential consumption categories, such as pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, saw significant growth, with increases of 8.7% and 6.9% respectively [3]. - Luxury goods, while still declining by 3.2%, have shown a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months, indicating a potential recovery [3]. Commercial Real Estate Outlook - The commercial real estate sector's rental index remains below the threshold of recovery, but the rebound in retail sales could enhance tenant leasing willingness and reduce vacancy rates [4]. - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting consumption through incentives for the retail and dining sectors, which may further support the recovery of commercial real estate [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on local developers and commercial operators in Hong Kong, particularly those with high dividend yields and substantial land reserves along the MTR lines [5][9]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Link REIT" (823 HK) with a target price of HKD 50.59 and "MTR Corporation" (66 HK) with a target price of HKD 29.50, both rated as "Buy" and "Overweight" respectively [9][14].