今日早参 2025 年 6 月 19 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场，对外加快开放 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长潘 功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和监 管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 风险提示：国内金融开放进度不及预期；全球金融市场超预期波动。 研报发布日期：2025-06-19 研究员 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 宏观：6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行 ...

固收 市场的共识与潜在预期差 华泰研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 18 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期影响资产的宏观主线发生切换，市场对关税的敏感度在下降，对经济数 据、地缘局势的关注度在提升，而前期形成的市场共识也开始出现分歧与预 期差。地缘冲突对资产价格多为短期的脉冲式影响，而关税、财政政策落地 后的基本面状态，成为影响大类资产价格走势的中长期变量。不确定性环境 下，重申"重赔率+重左侧+重交易"的配置策略，尤其关注一致预期出现 反转后的交易机会。本周配置建议方面，当前市场处于关税政策的疲劳期+ 基本面数据验证期+地缘扰动频发期，在基本面降温以及地缘避险需求下， 前期计入较多关税乐观预期的权益资产赔率或欠佳，而债券、黄金等避险资 产胜率相对更高，仍需关注中东地缘局势、陆家嘴论坛等。 核心主题：市场的共识与潜在预期差 我们尝试梳理了五组市场共识与潜在预期差，以供投资者参考，并建议把握 共识反转后的交易机会。1）关税对市场影响力度降低，逐渐退化为扰动性 因素。关税对美国基本面影响可能偏滞后，但不会缺席。2）美国债务问题 恶化，美债利率易上难下，美元或长期走弱。但长期债务问题已定价较为充 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the June meeting, with a focus on domestic employment and inflation trends, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [2] - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and will slow down its balance sheet reduction starting April 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation due to tariff uncertainties [3] Energy/Coal Sector - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to lead to a rebound in coal prices, as historical data shows a correlation between oil and coal prices during geopolitical conflicts [3] - The average oil-coal price ratio since 2000 is 3.37, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, indicating a strong relationship between the two commodities [3] Consumer Sector - In May, China's retail sales reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies and active holiday consumption [6] - The consumer recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities in emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation [6] Transportation Sector - Airlines have seen a steady increase in capacity and a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with ticket prices improving for eight consecutive weeks [7] - The industry is expected to enter a profitable cycle, supported by low supply growth and effective revenue management by airlines [7] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has shown a mild recovery, with a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries [11] - Key trends include focusing on core assets, enhancing local capabilities for overseas markets, and leveraging AI and innovation for growth [11]

证券研究报告 消费电子 伴随技术迭代与供应链降本，未来 3D 打印技术有望释放更大潜力 长期来看，我们认为 3D 打印技术具有良好的应用前景，有望 1）在 C 端个 性化制造、2）在 B 端加速产品研发流程，乃至 3）在工业端成为核心高端 生产工艺。长期看，3D 打印技术迭代以及从供应链到整机端的成本下降， 仍然是助力其破圈的关键。成本端，上游核心原材料/零组件国产化以及中 游 3D 打印厂商规模化，将共同促进 3D 打印机生产成本下行，进而带动销 售均价的下探。以金属 3D 打印设备为例，根据华曙高科招股书，激光器和 振镜是 3D 打印设备中最核心的零组件，成本占设备整体 30%且国产化程度 低，有望通过国产化突破实现该环节降本。 海外需求+潮玩经济加持，消费级 3D 打印应用有望加速 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 18 日│中国内地 动态点评 在出海需求和潮玩经济双重加持下，消费级 3D 打印有望加速破圈 3D 打印作为一种增材制造技术，早期由于价格高昂、使用/调试难度过大等 原因，只在极少数创客群体中流行。近年来，受益于 1）3D 打印技术突破， 消费者使用体验提升；2）成本下探，入手门槛降到千元左右 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价，但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势，预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格，近期已有所回落，对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5 月联储会 议以来，美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面，5 月 会议以来，中美关税降级，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降，美国就业市场 有序降温：4-5 月新增非农人数连续超预期，但 3 个月移动均值整体下行； 周度首申、续申人数也显示就业市场放缓，但未大规模裁员。另一方面，5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期，关税对通胀的推升暂不明显，但高频数据 前瞻指引方面，预计鲍威尔继续强调未来政策利率路径依赖于数据；预计 联储将下调 2 ...

证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储６月会议上将维持利率 ...

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 17 日 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：5 月经济数据: 消费走强，生产偏弱 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 5 月经济活动数据点评 由于 2024 年 5 月经济活动基数走低，今年 5 月经济数据总体呈现出"环比 放缓、同比稳健"的态势，具体看，外需和工业生产环比减速，地产销售和 投资增长同比降幅走阔，而消费增长大幅超预期，但部分受一次性因素提 振。随着"抢出口"退坡，关税不确定性下出口订单增长放缓，5 月出口、 发电量、工业增加值同比同步回落。同时，虽然广义（一般公共预算+政府 性基金）财政支出同比保持高速增长，但环比增长在 4 月后有所放缓，短期 对总需求贡献有所回落（图表 1）。内外需因素共振下，短期增长不确定性加 强，市场主体风险偏好边际回落，也部分可以解释为何地产销售环比减速。 社零同比增长较为亮眼，主要受益于"618"错位及五一假期出行活跃同比 增速超预期增长。考虑到后续"以旧换新"政策退坡、整治违规聚餐等政策 的影响、社零高增的持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in consumer spending, with May retail sales reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, surpassing expectations [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the impact of government policies and holiday consumption on driving retail growth, particularly in travel and quality lifestyle categories [1][2]. - Emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation are identified as key investment opportunities [1][4]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In May, dining and retail sales grew by 5.9% and 6.5% respectively, with a notable increase in travel spending during the May Day holiday [2]. - The 618 shopping festival started earlier this year, contributing to a 8.5% year-on-year increase in online retail sales from January to May, totaling 6 trillion yuan [2]. Category Analysis - Essential goods such as food and beverages saw significant price increases of 14.6% and 11.2% respectively in May [3]. - Upgraded consumption categories like home appliances and furniture experienced remarkable growth, with increases of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively [3]. - Jewelry sales rose by 21.8%, attributed to stable gold prices and investment demand [3]. CPI and Consumer Sentiment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year in May, primarily due to falling energy prices, while core CPI increased by 0.6% [4]. - The report notes a rise in prices for gold and durable consumer goods, indicating a strong demand for quality living and emotional value consumption [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: new consumer opportunities driven by domestic brands, high-growth emotional consumption sectors, the burgeoning silver economy, and AI-driven consumption [5]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include: - Domestic brands: Mao Ge Ping, An Ta Sports, Hai Lan Home, Shenzhou International, Li Ning, and others [5]. - High-growth emotional consumption: Pop Mart, Blukoo, Miniso, and others [5]. - Silver economy: Stable Medical, Guai Bao Pet, and others [5]. - AI + Consumption: Kid King, Ugreen Technology, and others [5]. Target Prices and Ratings - The report provides target prices and maintains "Buy" ratings for several companies, including Mao Ge Ping (target price 127.89 HKD), An Ta Sports (117.98 HKD), and others [9][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from a strong summer travel season, with airlines likely to realize pricing and profit elasticity [2][5]. - The industry has shown a steady increase in capacity and passenger load factors, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [3][4]. - Airlines are anticipated to enter a profit cycle due to low supply growth and improved revenue management, alongside the appreciation of the Renminbi [2][5]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - In May, the three major airlines reported a passenger load factor of 84.1%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, with capacity increasing by 6.0% [3][11]. - Spring Airlines achieved a load factor exceeding 90%, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. - The overall passenger load factor for the combined three major airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines was 84.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Revenue and Pricing - The report indicates that the average ticket price has been rising for eight consecutive weeks, suggesting a positive revenue outlook for the summer peak season [2][5]. - The domestic route average ticket price was reported at 693 RMB, showing a significant improvement compared to previous weeks [5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in several airlines, including China National Aviation (753 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), among others, with target prices set for each [9][25]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [7] Core Insights - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to drive oil prices higher, which historically correlates with an increase in coal prices due to their price linkage [1][12] - The coal chemical sector is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by the cost advantages of coal over oil in chemical production [2][39] - High temperatures and reduced water levels are anticipated to boost coal demand during the summer peak season [3][48] - Indonesia's coal production is projected to decline, which may improve the supply-demand balance for low-calorie coal in the market [4][53] - Despite a generally pessimistic market outlook for coal prices, there is a notable opportunity for price rebounds, particularly for undervalued coal companies [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Oil and Coal Price Dynamics - The Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude futures rising by 7.0% and 7.3% respectively on June 13 [1][14] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between oil and coal prices, with an average oil-coal price ratio of 3.37 since 2000 [1][18] Section 2: Coal Chemical Demand - The coal chemical sector's demand growth reached 16.4% from January to May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts [2][41] - The profitability of coal-based ethylene glycol production is expected to improve, with projected profits turning positive by May 2025 [2][39] Section 3: Seasonal Demand Factors - The average national temperature in May was 17.1°C, 0.9°C higher than the previous year, indicating increased electricity demand [3][48] - A forecasted 9% decline in hydropower generation hours is expected to translate into an additional 0.3 million tons of coal demand [3][50] Section 4: Indonesian Coal Production - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decrease by 13% in 2025, leading to a potential 20% reduction in export volumes [4][53] - This reduction is anticipated to alleviate the oversupply of low-calorie coal in the Chinese market [4][53] Section 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment for coal prices is pessimistic, but there is a significant potential for price recovery [5] - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Jinneng Holding Group, all of which are considered undervalued with strong dividend yields [5][58]