证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 房地产 重申估值筑底凸显配置价值 ——行业点评报告 我们认为有少部分房企 2025 年盈利可能提前迎来改善，这类房企的特点在于 1）前期计提减值充分；2）项目聚焦核心 30 城，资产价格率先回暖；3）开发 业务收缩较快，非开发业务利润打底，稳住公司盈利基本盘。典型案例如华润置 地和新城控股。 投资要点 ❑ 维持 2025 年度策略投资思路 3 月 12 日我们外发报告《25Q2 地产投资策略：估值筑底凸显配置价值》中提到 "25Q2 是地产板块估值磨底阶段"—— 关于如何看待 Q2 利空因素，决定了地 产板块估值的下限问题。我们认为，当一方面跟踪到 5 月销售基本面淡季不淡， 而另一方面房企 2024 年体现出公司利润逐步筑底、利空出尽的时候，这意味着 地产板块的估值或达到了底部，具有反弹的潜力。 根据我们 2022 年的专题报告《鉴以往知未来之房地产周期底部特征研究》，复 盘历次周期地产板块股价和房价的表现，我们可以比较直观的看到，房企估值的 拐点受价格变化影响早于盈利改善，主要是由于房企利润结算受竣工影响有滞 后。资产价格的修复从房企开始取消降价销售策略就已经开始， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of RMB internationalization in achieving "financial autonomy and controllability," especially in the context of escalating tariff disputes globally. The establishment of the CIPS system and the mBridge project are highlighted as key initiatives to enhance the ability to respond to financial sanctions [1][2][18]. RMB Internationalization Theme Evaluation - The RMB internationalization theme received a composite score of 62.86 based on seven dimensions, with high scores in future imagination space, trading congestion, and policy support [3][20]. - The evaluation criteria included market capitalization capacity, policy support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future imagination space [20][24]. RMB Internationalization Concept Stock Pool - A stock pool consisting of 18 stocks was constructed based on cross-border trade, payment, and logistics, reflecting potential beneficiaries of RMB internationalization [3][23]. - The stock pool's performance was backtested from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, showing an excess return of 35.64% compared to the Wind All A Index, with a notable excess return of 12.44% after April 8, 2025 [3][29]. RMB Internationalization Index - The RMB internationalization index was created based on the concept stock pool, using free float market capitalization for weighting, with a maximum weight of 10% for any single stock [26]. - The index demonstrated a growth of 47% from March 29, 2024, to May 5, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 35.64% [29].

：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 07 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 07 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 6 日上证指数上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 上涨 1.01%，科创 50 上涨 1.39%，中证 1000 上涨 2.57%，创业板 指上涨 1.97%，恒生指数上涨 0.7%。 行业：5 月 6 日表现最好的行业分别是计算机（+3.65%)、通信（+3.59%)、综合（+3.38%)、机械设备 （+3.04%)、传媒（+2.82%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-0.13%)、食品饮料（+0.35%)、美容护理 （+0.43%)、石油石化（+0.66%)、煤炭（+0.74%)。 资金：5 月 6 日全 A 总成交额为 13644.47 亿元，南下资金净流入 134.76 亿港元。 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/陈姝姝】华通线缆（605196）公司 ...

证券研究报告 悦己消费和优质国货高增，稳健白马筑底 ——轻工制造24A&25Q1业绩综述 2025年05月04日 行业评级：看好 分析师 史凡可 傅嘉成 曾伟 褚远熙 陈秋露 01rto 经济大盘乏力， 消费结构性景气 2 邮箱 shifanke@stocke.com.cn fujiacheng@stocke.com.cn zengwei@stocke.com.cn chuyuanxi@stocke.com.cn chenqiulu@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230520080008 S1230521090001 S1230524090011 S1230524090009 S1230525040001 1.2 24A&25Q1综述：家居造纸筑底、个护保持成长 ne 24A&25Q1综述：情绪消费和优质国货成长凸显 子赛道具体表现：收入端文娱个护最优，利润端包装稳定性最强 3 1.1 复盘24Q4&25Q1：大盘消费疲软，以潮玩、宠物为代表的情绪消费类资产表现超额明显，此外部分优质国货产品创新能力突出， 借力差异化渠道实现较好的成长势能，持续重视成长资产布局，例如泡泡玛特、布鲁可、乖宝宠物、中宠 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the healthy development of inventory and focuses on new products and mid-tier products for 2025. The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure, with an emphasis on high-end liquor and expansion into markets outside its home province [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 360.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17% [8] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 165.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 66.48 billion yuan, a 6% increase [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 76%, with a net margin of 34%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased to 79% [1][3] Product and Market Strategy - The company reported that the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 14% to 265.32 billion yuan in 2024, while other liquor categories saw a 9% increase to 93.42 billion yuan [2] - The company is expanding its dealer network, adding 15 dealers in its home province and 598 dealers outside, indicating a strong focus on provincial expansion [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 10%, with net profit growth forecasted at 8%. The EPS for 2025 is projected to be 10.84 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 19 times [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 基础化工 弱复苏，结构分化明显 ——化工行业 2025 年一季报业绩综述 投资要点 ❑ 风险提示 原材料价格波动风险、需求不及预期风险、安全事故风险 基础化工 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 06 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：李辉 执业证书号：S1230521120003 lihui01@stocke.com.cn 分析师：汤永俊 执业证书号：S1230523120009 tangyongjun@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 | 1 《库存去化，VD3 价格看 | | --- | | 涨》 2025.04.29 | | 2 《关税对化工行业影响》 | | 2025.04.10 | | 3 《Q1 盈利有所修复，看好内 | | 需复苏机会》 2025.04.08 | http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 2025 年 3 月，化工行业 PPI 同比-2.8%，其中化学原料与制品行业、化学纤维和 橡胶塑料制品分别为-3.6%/-4.7%/-1.5%。PPI 持续下行主要由于油煤等原料价格 下跌、过去 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8][14]. Core Insights - The company focuses on a circular economy model centered around cogeneration, establishing a robust resource-product-recycling resource chain with various enterprises in the Jiaxing Port area, while also developing an energy and chemical circular industry system internally, showcasing significant core advantages and stable operations [1][25]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through high dividends and stock buybacks, with a combined dividend yield and buyback cancellation rate expected to approach 10% [6][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Model - The company has established a circular economy as its core development model, leveraging its cogeneration capabilities to expand into various chemical products, including caustic soda, PVC, and fatty alcohols, while focusing on domestic demand to mitigate tariff impacts [2][26]. - The company has a diversified product chain with significant production capacities, including 297,000 tons/year of caustic soda and 200,000 tons/year of fatty alcohols, and is actively enhancing its competitive edge through ongoing projects [4][29]. 2. Steam Business and External Circulation - As the only steam supplier in the Jiaxing Port area, the company benefits from strong policy and regional barriers, ensuring stable profitability through coal-heat linkage pricing and continuous optimization of cogeneration processes [3][49]. - The steam production has shown steady growth, with production increasing from 7.3 million tons in 2014 to 11.9 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.0% [58]. 3. Chemical Business and Internal Circulation - The company’s chemical business, particularly in caustic soda and fatty alcohols, demonstrates strong profitability, with caustic soda and fatty alcohols contributing significantly to overall gross profit [61][62]. - The company is positioned in the core consumption area of the Yangtze River Delta, enhancing its competitive advantage in the caustic soda market, where electricity costs are a major factor [4][66]. 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 104.12 billion, 115.83 billion, and 127.55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 11.67 billion, 13.32 billion, and 15.12 billion yuan [7][13]. - The company maintains a low debt level, with an asset-liability ratio of only 22.69% as of the end of 2024, providing flexibility for future financial maneuvers [43].

业绩稳健，海外产能加速布局 ——建霖家居 24 年及 25Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 24 年及 25Q1 业绩公告 24 年实现收入 50.07 亿元（同比+15.53%），归母净利润 4.82 亿元（同比 +13.44%），扣非后归母净利润 4.65 亿元（同比+19.53%）。其中，24Q4 实现收入 12.30 亿元（同比-1.1%），归母净利润 0.85 亿元（同比-36.62%），25Q1 实现收入 11.92 亿元（同比+3.37%），归母净利润 1.23 亿元（同比+0.46%）。24 年业绩稳健兑 现，最近 2 个季度收入有所降速，主因出货节奏受关税政策扰动，预计终端客户需求 稳定，公司厨卫代工出口龙头地位稳固，利润率基本稳健。 ❑ 业绩增长稳健，新品类新市场亮眼 分产品看：1）厨卫产品 24 年收入 31.97 亿元，同比+11.4%，厨卫品类出口需求修 复，同时，公司海外产能优势及产品交付能力突出，深化如 Lowe's、The Home Depot 等头部卖场合作，增强品牌客户拿单能力，龙头、淋浴系统等品类加强大客户渗透， 欧带新市场拓展增量明显；2）净水产品 24 年收入 ...

赞宇科技(002637) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 06 日 25Q1 业绩同环比改善，看好杜库达基地成长弹性 ——赞宇科技 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 事件 ❑ 4 月 22 日，公司发布 2024 年报：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 107.92 亿元，同比 +12.27%；实现归母净利润 1.35 亿元，同比+53.99%；加权平均净资产收益率为 3.64%，同比增加 1.22 个百分点。销售毛利率 6.88%，同比增加 0.70 个百分点； 销售净利率 1.16%，同比增加 0.69 个百分点。 其中，2024Q4 实现营收 32.28 亿元，同比+37.23%，环比+9.79%；实现归母净利 润 0.15 亿元，同比+154.13%，环比-49.72%；平均净资产收益率为 0.39%，同比 增加 1.12 个百分点，环比减少 0.41 个百分点。销售毛利率 6.42%，同比增加 1.76 个百分点，环比减少 0.91 个百分点；销售净利率 0.45%，同比增加 1.60 个 百分点，环比减少 0.47 个百分点。 ❑ 4 月 22 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 ...

2）分市场：24 年公司省内/省外分别实现收入 51/19 亿元，同比+13%/+1%，省 内市场较优。24 年省内净增加经销商 19 家，省外净减少经销商 27 家。25Q1 省 内 16.33 亿元（-8%），省外 3.29 亿元（-30%）。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 白酒Ⅱ 产品结构持续升级，短期增速放缓 ——迎驾贡酒 2024 年年报&25Q1 业绩点评 投资 1）分产品：24 年中高档酒（洞藏、金银星系列）/普通酒（百年迎驾、简装酒） 收入 57 亿元/13 亿元，分别同比+14%/-7%，体现产品结构持续优化。25Q1 中高 档酒/普通酒收入 17 亿元/2 亿元，分别同比-9%/-32%。 ❑ 催化剂：动销超预期；市场开拓超预期。 ❑ 风险提示：消费恢复不及预期； 市场竞争加剧。 财务摘要 | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 7344 | 7560 | 7959 | 8642 | | (+/-) (%) | 8.46% | 2.9 ...