Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - Last week's market performance showed a growth style portfolio return of 3.01%, while the value style portfolio return was 1.51% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the current growth style is 1.10, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 58.26% favor the growth style, while 41.74% favor the value style, based on seven win rate indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.22, while the value style's investment expectation is -0.13, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return for the style rotation model based on investment expectations has been 27.12%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on fundamental improvements and valuation levels [4]. Core Insights - Recent market focus has shifted towards new real estate development models, particularly regarding current housing sales and loan management policies, which are expected to be implemented gradually rather than through a one-size-fits-all approach [2][3]. - The current valuation levels of major real estate companies are approaching the pre-rebound levels seen in April and September of the previous year, suggesting that the sector may be entering an investment zone [6][12]. - The adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, while the average adjusted PB for the top five companies in terms of sales is around 0.7, further supporting the notion that the sector's investment attributes are becoming more pronounced [8][12]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The focus on current housing sales and loan management policies has led to a cautious sentiment among investors, which is reflected in stock prices [2]. - The gradual implementation of policies is expected to enhance the competitive landscape for high-quality companies within the industry, thereby increasing entry barriers [3]. Valuation Analysis - The current PB levels for major real estate firms are near the lower bounds of the past five years, indicating a potential for upward valuation adjustments [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that investments should be made when valuations are within a reasonable range, highlighting the increasing value of the real estate sector as it approaches these levels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a strong track record of cash flow generation and stable performance, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Development, as well as those with high dividend yields and stable earnings like China Resources Land [13]. - The potential for valuation recovery exists for companies like Gemdale and Longfor Group, especially as market volatility decreases and interest rates stabilize [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the performance and capital flows of the ETF fund market, different popular sub - type ETF funds, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds in the past week (June 3 - June 6, 2025) to provide references for investors [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: Most A - share - focused ETFs rose this week. TMT ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 3.52% for funds above a certain scale, while consumer ETFs declined, with an average decline of 0.01% for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital flow: Capital continued to flow into bond ETFs significantly, with a net inflow of 14.418 billion yuan throughout the week. On the contrary, there was significant capital outflow from sectors such as Sci - tech Innovation/ChiNext related index ETFs, Hong Kong stock ETFs, and QDII - ETFs [3][9]. Different Popular Sub - type ETF Funds Market Performance - The report lists the performance of various sub - type ETFs, including broad - based index ETFs (such as ultra - large - cap, large - cap, small - and - medium - cap, etc.), industry - themed ETFs (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, financial real estate, etc.), SmartBeta ETFs, bond ETFs, QDII ETFs, and commodity ETFs, presenting their latest scale, weekly capital flow, weekly return, weekly trading volume, recent 1 - month return, and year - to - date return [15][21][29]. Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Funds Market Performance - The report shows the market performance of high - attention innovative theme and sub - industry ETFs, including TMT innovation themes, consumer sub - industries, pharmaceutical sub - industries, new energy themes, central and state - owned enterprise themes, stable - growth themes, Hong Kong - related sub - industries, etc., presenting the weekly return, year - to - date return, fund code, representative fund name, weekly return, and latest scale [33][34][35].

Domestic Insights - In the first week of June, upstream production activity showed an overall decline, with significant weakening in the automotive supply chain and real estate sales and investment data[2] - The growth rate of consumption in categories like automotive and home appliances has slowed, likely due to the exhaustion of fiscal subsidy funds in some regions, which is expected to impact May's retail sales growth[2] - Despite resilient export data, May's export growth rate is expected to decline further, and overall economic data may also show a downward trend[2] - The economic growth rate from January to April significantly exceeded the 5% target, thus the current downward trend in economic data is unlikely to impact the annual growth target significantly, with low probability for new policies to be implemented in June and July[2] Overseas Insights - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the market expectation of 130,000, but the previous months' data was revised down by 95,000 jobs, maintaining the unemployment rate at a low of 4.2%[17] - The U.S. government has requested countries to submit their best trade negotiation proposals by June 4, with only Vietnam complying, while Japan, India, Europe, and Canada remain firm in their positions[3] - The Trump administration's tax cut policy faces obstacles in the Senate, with significant discussions expected in July[3]

Group 1: Recent Developments - The call between Chinese and American leaders on June 5 emphasized the importance of US-China relations and successful trade talks in Geneva, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions[7] - The ongoing political struggle within the Trump administration is highlighted by the public dispute between Trump and Musk, reflecting deeper ideological divides[10] - New rounds of trade negotiations between the US and India, as well as Japan, are underway, focusing on tariff and non-tariff issues[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming US-China talks in London on June 9 will involve key officials and may address non-tariff issues, indicating a shift in focus[13] - The US is expected to continue its judicial review of tariff policies, with significant implications for trade negotiations with Japan and India[15] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are likely to distract US diplomatic efforts and complicate trade discussions[17] Group 3: Long-term Risks - The report warns of potential shifts in US policy due to internal political dynamics and unexpected changes in international relations, which could impact market stability[3] - The rebalancing of major power relationships is anticipated, with a focus on strategic supply chains and key industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals[19] - The report suggests that if Trump fails to achieve satisfactory trade outcomes, more aggressive geopolitical stances may emerge, increasing market volatility[19]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 白银技术突破，继续推荐黄金稀土板块 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 美国就业数据超预期，提示美国经济尚未出现衰退，美股美债美元走强。美联 储降息 9 月降息概率下降。黄金短期压力大，但是银价技术突破和铂价大涨， 也印证了市场对于黄金未来价格依然看涨。继续强烈推荐黄金，反制品种稀土 磁材、钨板块。此外，关注自主可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控 核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4079.0 | 4.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3789.0 | 4.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.2 4.1 20.9 相对表现 3.5 6.6 13.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Jun/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 (%) 金属及材料 沪深300 3、《铍行业深度报告：可控核聚变 关键金属》2025-05-21 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The demand for AI inference has significantly increased, with Broadcom reporting AI revenue exceeding expectations, highlighting ongoing investment in the AI sector [6][9]. - Circle, the first publicly traded stablecoin company, saw its stock price surge nearly 250% shortly after its IPO, reflecting strong market interest and potential for rapid growth in the stablecoin sector [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure investment and the anticipated growth of stablecoins as regulatory frameworks develop, positioning them as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3 [6][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas AI Computing Power - Broadcom's Q2 2025 revenue reached $15.004 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, with AI revenue surpassing $4.4 billion, growing 46% year-over-year [9][10]. - The company anticipates continued growth in AI semiconductor sales, projecting revenue to accelerate to $5.1 billion in Q3 2025 [11]. - The market for AI XPU and networks is expected to reach a serviceable available market (SAM) of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027, with Broadcom aiming for a leading market share [11]. Section 2: Circle's Market Performance - Circle's stock price increased by approximately 168.48% on its first trading day, closing at $83.23, significantly above its IPO price of $31 [14]. - As of May 23, 2025, the circulating supply of USDC exceeded $61 billion, making it the second-largest stablecoin globally [14][15]. Section 3: Market Performance Review - The computer sector rose by 2.80% in the first week of June 2025, with notable gains from companies such as Huijin Co., Qingyun Technology, and Zhongdian Xilong [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the bond market situation last week through multiple indicators, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, presenting the changes and trends of each indicator. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 115.8, down 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 49.0%, down 6.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration Tracking - Last Friday, the fund duration was 2.17 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.85 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.79 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio Tracking - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 11.3 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large banks was 4.1 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 28.5%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.53%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 9.8 billion yuan, the same as the previous value; in terms of risk preference, the stock market risk premium was 2.13%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 70.7, down 0.3 from the previous value [2]. - The 6M bill transfer discount rate minus the 6M certificate of deposit fell 0.2bp to - 59.5bp, indicating a decline in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the rural commercial bank bond allocation index was 45.0%, up 124.1 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 47.6%, down 30.2 percentage points from the previous value; the money market fund bond allocation index was - 54.9%, down 47.5 percentage points from the previous value. The insurance second - tier perpetual bond allocation index was - 4.7%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 6. Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the full - field multiple of Treasury bonds was 3.5 times, the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 1.6 times to 22.3 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.2 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between the 10 - year China Development Bank bond and the Treasury bond widened 1.3bp to 2.3bp, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 1.9bp to 12.6bp, the spread between the old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.4bp to 2.8bp, and the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the Treasury bond narrowed 1.3bp to 11.0bp [3].

- The report focuses on the performance of quantitative funds in the A-share market during the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, highlighting that quantitative funds outperformed other fund categories during this period [1][2][8] - Among the major indices, the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 recorded weekly returns of 2.10%, 1.60%, and 0.88%, respectively, indicating a positive market trend [3][8] - Quantitative fund categories showed varied performance: active quantitative funds gained 1.60%, market-neutral funds rose by 0.17%, and index-enhanced funds linked to the CSI 1000 and other indices achieved excess returns of 0.22% and 0.21%, respectively, while CSI 500 index-enhanced funds recorded negative excess returns [4][11][14] - The performance of index-enhanced funds was analyzed based on excess returns and maximum drawdowns relative to their benchmark indices. For example, CSI 300 index-enhanced funds achieved a weekly excess return of 0.06% with a maximum drawdown of -0.03%, while CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds achieved a weekly excess return of 0.22% with a maximum drawdown of -0.04% [16][18][20] - Active quantitative funds demonstrated a weekly return of 1.60% with a maximum drawdown of -0.21%, while market-neutral funds achieved a weekly return of 0.17% with a maximum drawdown of -0.11% [24][25] - The report also highlights the top-performing funds within each quantitative category, such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds, as well as active and market-neutral funds. For instance, the Bosera CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.80%, while the Bosera CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.79% [37][39][41][43][45]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to maximize the exposure of a target factor in the portfolio while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures relative to the benchmark index[59][60][61] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Objective Function: Maximize the portfolio's exposure to the target factor $Max \ w^{\prime} X_{target}$ 2. Constraints: - Industry neutrality: $(w-w_{b})^{\prime} X_{ind}=0$ - Style neutrality (size, valuation, growth): $(w-w_{b})^{\prime} X_{Beta}=0$ - Stock weight deviation from benchmark: $|w-w_{b}|\leq1\%$ - No short selling: $w\geq0$ - Full investment: $w^{\prime} 1=1$ - Stocks must belong to the benchmark: $w^{\prime} B=1$ 3. Factor neutralization: Before constructing the portfolio, factors are neutralized to remove correlations with industry and style factors, and all factor directions are adjusted to be positive[59][60][61] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances factor exposure maximization with risk control through constraints, ensuring robustness in various market conditions[59][60][61] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio** - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.35%, monthly excess return 0.33%, annual excess return 0.40%[56] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return -0.52%, monthly excess return 1.34%, annual excess return -0.05%[56] - **CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.29%, monthly excess return 1.59%, annual excess return 0.74%[56] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.25%, monthly excess return 2.83%, annual excess return 15.68%[57] - **CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.14%, monthly excess return 0.62%, annual excess return 5.94%[57] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the market's returns, capturing risk preferences in the market[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the stock's daily returns over the past 252 trading days - Perform an exponentially weighted regression of the stock's returns against the market index (CSI All Share Index) with a half-life of 63 days - Use the regression coefficient as the Beta value[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The Beta factor effectively captures market risk preferences, as evidenced by its strong performance in high-risk environments[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Size Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect, where smaller-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute the natural logarithm of the total market capitalization of each stock[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor consistently demonstrates the small-cap effect, particularly in high-volatility markets[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong past performance, assuming trends persist in the short term[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate cumulative returns over the past 504 trading days, excluding the most recent 21 days - Apply an exponentially weighted average with a half-life of 126 days to the return series[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The momentum factor is effective in trending markets but may underperform during reversals[15][16] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return 2.61%, monthly long-short return -1.82%[18] - **Size Factor**: Weekly long-short return -2.11%, monthly long-short return -8.87%[18] - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly long-short return 0.58%, monthly long-short return -1.85%[18] --- Stock Selection Factors and Performance - **Factor Name**: Single Quarter ROE **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability by comparing net income to shareholder equity for a single quarter[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of net income attributable to shareholders to total shareholder equity for the most recent quarter[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.72%, monthly excess return 1.90%, annual excess return 5.43%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.85%, monthly excess return 0.91%, annual excess return 5.90%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 1.02%, monthly excess return 2.06%, annual excess return 3.95%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 1.09%, monthly excess return 2.44%, annual excess return -3.47%[36] - **Factor Name**: Single Quarter EP **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures earnings yield by comparing net income to market capitalization for a single quarter[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of net income attributable to shareholders to total market capitalization for the most recent quarter[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.89%, monthly excess return 1.65%, annual excess return 0.86%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.50%, monthly excess return 1.87%, annual excess return -4.22%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 1.06%, monthly excess return 2.04%, annual excess return -1.54%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 0.38%, monthly excess return 1.69%, annual excess return -5.99%[36] - **Factor Name**: 20-Day Reversal **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures short-term mean reversion by focusing on stocks with recent underperformance[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate cumulative returns over the past 20 trading days[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.11%, monthly excess return -0.15%, annual excess return 8.90%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.80%, monthly excess return 1.57%, annual excess return 3.33%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 0.39%, monthly excess return 0.59%, annual excess return 8.27%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 0.64%, monthly excess return 1.38%, annual excess return -6.69%[36]