Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 工信部政策加持，机器人赛道迎来"量产加速器" 人形机器人周报 20251124 中游制造/机械 行情回顾： ❑ 11 月 17-21 日机器人板块整体略输大盘，仍处于调整阶段。过去一周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.77%，人形机器人行业核心公司综合指数亦下降 5.19%。核心标 的中，涨跌幅前五位为伟创电气（18.56%），同益股份（16.51%），龙溪股 份（16.34%），恒工精密（11.07%），安培龙（10.69%）；涨跌幅后五位 为富临精工（-20.29%），兆新股份（-18.05%），江苏博云（-16.12%）， 中欣氟材（-15.52%），祥源新材（-13.84%）。当前板块受特斯拉量产进度 推迟及整体流动性变弱等因素影响，整体呈现波动回调趋势。 重要事件： 周度简评： 相关标的： （1）关注国产链关键龙头 本体：优必选、越疆、中坚科技、拓斯达 大脑：天准科技 关节&丝杠：美湖股份（宇树、富士康等）、震裕科技、夏厦精密、丰立智能、 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（ ...

2、市场动向：ESG 指数短期回调，碳价维持高位水平 本周主要 ESG 指数整体震荡下行：国内 300ESG 指数下跌 3.49%，SEEE 碳 中和指数跌幅达 6.93%；海外标普 500ESG 指数下跌 1.55%，标普 Kensho 清洁电 力指数周跌 8.45%。碳价方面，国内 CEA 价格报 65 元/吨，成交活跃度有所回落； 欧盟碳价报 81 欧元/吨，与 CEA 价差回落至 594 元/吨。能源指数方面，万得火电 指数与中证绿色电力指数分别下跌 5.26%和 3.98%。板块层面，绿色转型相关各板 块均呈现主力资金净流出，低碳核心板块净流出率最高，低碳支撑板块成交占比 28.23%保持领先。 3、舆情热点：ESG 舆情总量温和回调，治理与绿色创新仍为主线 本周全市场 ESG 事件共录得 2433 件，环比小幅下降 1.5%。正向事件占比升 至 53.4%，负向占比降至 38.8%，整体情绪较前周略有改善。议题方面，治理类事 件仍占主导，其中"战略合作"最为突出；环境类议题中"绿色产品"继续保持最 高热度。代表性事件包括：中石化与阿尔及利亚国油签署 4.5 亿美元炼油装置建设 合同，推动海外能源结 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on sectors with "inventory stabilization at low levels, capacity structure optimization, and continuous improvement in prosperity" for December [1][5] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple factors, including the cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and ongoing inflation concerns, with cyclical sectors and defensive industries performing relatively well [1][5] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, power equipment (batteries, inverters, wind power equipment), defense and military, coal, basic chemicals, and steel [1][5] Group 2 - Economic data from January to October indicates a continuous slowdown, influenced by high bases, anti-involution policies, and reduced local investment [5] - The report notes that the supply side has seen significant capacity clearance, with some industries beginning to see improvements in capacity utilization rates as demand recovers [5][9] - The report emphasizes that the third quarter saw an unexpected improvement in A-share earnings, particularly in consumer services, resource products, and midstream manufacturing [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors for attention, including non-bank financials, where leading brokerages are accelerating consolidation, and insurance companies are expected to see high growth in profitability [6] - In the power equipment sector, the supply-demand landscape is improving, with prices in the new energy and photovoltaic supply chain continuing to rise [6] - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and demand for military trade, driven by geopolitical tensions [6] Group 4 - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to stricter safety regulations, with winter heating supporting stable demand for thermal coal [6] - Basic chemicals are seeing a structural improvement in demand, particularly in the pesticide sector, which is benefiting from reduced internal competition [6] - The steel industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by high-end manufacturing demand, particularly from emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the recovery of the restaurant chain sector and highlights the upcoming Moutai shareholders' meeting as a point of interest [10][18]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is characterized as having low expectations and low holdings, with a potential for a rebound due to rising CPI and positive micro-consumption data [10][18]. - Key companies such as Yili and H&H International are focusing on balancing growth and profitability, with Yili enhancing its dividend commitments and H&H adjusting its revenue guidance upwards [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the restaurant chain and liquor sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [10][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Yili is focusing on quality leadership and strategic expansion while improving shareholder returns, with a positive outlook on its liquid milk segment and overall profitability [3][12]. - H&H International has seen a significant revenue increase, with a 28.5% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, and is optimizing its debt structure while expanding its online and overseas markets [3][12]. - The report notes that Q3 growth for Yihai International has slightly slowed, but overseas markets continue to perform well, with a focus on product structure optimization to improve margins [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the recovery of the restaurant chain sector, with specific mentions of companies like Haidilao, Angel Yeast, and China Resources Beer as potential investments [10][18]. - For the liquor sector, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are highlighted as top picks, with a focus on valuation shifts in growth segments such as snacks and pet food [10][18]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Moutai having a market cap of 183.66 billion and a projected net profit of 74.73 billion for 2023 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 6.02% and the public utility index down 4.33%, indicating a larger drop compared to the overall market [6][23] - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in October, marking a new high for the year [10][21] - The coal industry is facing a reduction in production, with national raw coal output declining by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy, which are expected to see valuation recovery [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Analysis - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the first and third industries [10][21] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released allocation plans for carbon emissions trading for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025, indicating a move towards free allocation based on carbon emissions [21][22] Market Review - The environmental and public utility sectors saw significant declines, with the environmental sector up 15.11% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6][23] - The electricity sector's year-to-date growth is only 1.77%, lagging behind the CSI 300 and the ChiNext index [6][23] Key Data Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, stable compared to the previous week but down 2.4% year-on-year [40] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level is at 174.4 meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, with inflow and outflow rates also increasing [42] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached 253.72 CNY/MWh, a 7.7% increase from the previous week [53] Industry Events - The report notes several key regulatory developments, including initiatives to promote green manufacturing in Jiangxi Province and the establishment of zero-carbon parks in Liaoning Province [64][65]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture the trend patterns of interest rates, depicting the support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides multi-cycle composite timing views based on the pattern breakthrough situations of interest rate trends under different investment cycles[10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Source**: Yield to Maturity (YTM) data of 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. - **Cycles**: Long cycle (monthly), medium cycle (bi-weekly), and short cycle (weekly). - **Signal Calculation**: - For the 5-year bond YTM: Long cycle upward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: bearish[10]. - For the 10-year bond YTM: Long cycle downward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: neutral to bearish[13]. - For the 30-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle upward breakthrough. Final signal: bearish[16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the trend patterns of interest rates and provides clear timing signals based on multi-cycle analysis[10][13][16]. Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **5-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.24% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.8 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.81% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[25] - **10-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.08% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.69% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.65 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.39% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[28] - **30-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.36% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.72 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 3.25% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.54 - Long-term excess return: 2.41% - Short-term excess return: 2.57% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 94.44% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 94.44%[33]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 10 月推盘未售去化周期较 9 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 20 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 20 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | 城） （39 | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | 城） （16 | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -20% | -收窄 | +7 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - Google has released the Gemini 3 large model, which includes the Gemini 3 Pro preview and Gemini 3 Deep Think mode, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [6][9]. - The Google Antigravity platform has been launched, transforming AI assistance into an active partner for developers, enhancing task execution and code verification [12][15]. - The Nano Banana Pro model has been introduced, featuring high-resolution output and advanced image generation capabilities, integrating multimodal understanding and Google's knowledge base [18][16]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,122.9 billion and a circulating market value of about 3,648.6 billion [3]. - The computer sector experienced a decline of 2.74% in the third week of November 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Rongji Software and *ST Dongtong [19][20]. Market Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is recorded at 0.4%, 16.2%, and 16.7% respectively, while relative performance stands at 3.7%, 2.5%, and 5.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - AI has emerged as a new growth engine for performance, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers driving revenue growth in related cloud businesses [1][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for AI computing power remains robust, with companies like NVIDIA reporting record revenues and strong future guidance [6][42]. - SaaS companies are experiencing substantial revenue growth, largely attributed to the application of AI technologies [54]. Summary by Sections Cloud: Continued Increase in Capital Expenditures - Major cloud providers collectively invested over $110 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 CY25, with AI being a key driver for this increase [6][13]. - Amazon's capital expenditure surged by 55% to $35.1 billion, surpassing Microsoft as the largest spender in a single quarter [6][18]. - Future guidance indicates that cloud providers will continue to increase capital expenditures focused on AI and data center infrastructure [6][18]. Computing Power: Performance Orders Exceeding Expectations - NVIDIA reported a 62% increase in revenue for Q3 FY26, with data center revenue reaching $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year growth [42][45]. - AMD also achieved record revenues of $9.2 billion in Q3, driven by strong demand for its EPYC and Ryzen processors [50][51]. Applications: Overview of SaaS Company Performance - SaaS companies reported significant revenue growth in Q3 CY25, with many exceeding expectations due to AI technology applications [54][55]. - ServiceNow's subscription revenue grew by 21.5%, while Palantir's revenue increased by 63%, driven by demand for its AIP platform [57][58]. - AppLovin's revenue rose by 68%, supported by its AI-driven advertising technology [60].