期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-22 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘因素增强，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。随着原油期货市场地缘因素盖过偏弱供需基本面，本周三夜盘国内原油期货价格维 持震荡反弹的走势，期价小幅上行。预计本周四国内原油期货价格或维持偏强的格局。 ----------------------------------------- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-22 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a sideways trend in the short - and medium - term, while showing a relatively strong performance intraday. It will run with an upward bias overall [1][5]. - The main factors driving the upward movement of methanol prices are the "hard contraction" of overseas supply, the reduction of domestic port methanol inventory, the strengthening of the spot market, and the intensification of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to move sideways, within a week [1]. - **Medium - term**: It is also expected to move sideways, from two weeks to one month [1]. - **Intraday**: It is expected to be relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction", especially in Iran, a major source of imports, which is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - **Inventory and Spot Market**: The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, and boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: The U.S. military aircraft carrier bypassed the Strait of Malacca and headed for the Middle East battlefield, and Iran issued tough statements, intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supporting the methanol market [5]. 3.3 Market Performance Forecast - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a stable sideways movement with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, domestic methanol futures will maintain a sideways and relatively strong trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with limited upward and downward space. However, the main logic for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock index remains unchanged, supported by positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and there is still a need for oscillation and consolidation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "weak", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation consolidation" - Yesterday, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. IC and IM performed strongly, while IH and IF performed weakly. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2623.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.5 billion yuan from the previous day - With the policy signals from the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled down, the trading volume has declined, and the stock index has entered an oscillation and consolidation market - The latest macro - economic indicators show that the macro - economy has strong resilience, but the problem of weak domestic demand still exists. The expectation of future macro - policy support is clear - The policy side is determined to support technological innovation and boost consumption, which constitutes a positive policy expectation for small and medium - cap technology growth stocks - In the short term, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down, and the driving effect of funds on the stock index has weakened, resulting in limited upward and downward space for the stock index in the short term [5]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，矿价承压运行 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗回落，而钢厂盈利状况改善有限，叠加 淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求仍将弱势运行，利好因素则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到货 高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, with the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreasing, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures being limited [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreases [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. Macro - demand has resilience, but the problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment still needs to be relatively loose. Policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation, also requiring a loose monetary and credit environment. With the Fed in an interest - rate cut cycle, there are still expectations for domestic monetary easing. However, the short - term urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is weak, and the direction of monetary policy is still mainly structural, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", due to sufficient imports and low - level operation of coking coal [1]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation and weakening", because of the stalemate between long and short positions and the oscillation and consolidation of coke [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqi Maodu Port in the spot market is 1,240.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. Overall, Mongolian coal imports remain high, resulting in a situation of increasing supply and stable demand for coking coal, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The pre - winter storage and replenishment and the expectation of coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival have fermented. Without policy intervention, the coal price may be suppressed by the fundamentals and maintain low - level operation before the Spring Festival [5]. Coke - The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. Recently, the game between coke enterprises and steel mills has increased. Coke plants have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream acceptance is low. At present, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak fundamentals. The increase in Mongolian coal imports weakens the cost support for coke, and the iron - water production reduction worry caused by the steel mill accident makes the coke market atmosphere dull, and the futures maintain low - level and weak operation [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆市场短期陷入震荡僵局，多空因素交织导致方向性驱动不足。美国国内压榨需求因生物燃 料生产旺盛而保持强劲，成为价格重要底部支撑；然而南美大豆供应竞争压力持续，上周美豆对华出口装 运量环比显著下滑 32%，削弱了需求端的乐观预期。国内上游油厂因压榨量不高且豆粕库存连续下降，油 厂挺价心态坚决；另一方面，下游节前备货以滚动采购为主，追高意愿有限，且部分地区物流受阻影响现 货提货。市场成本有支撑，但供应宽松预期与宏观不确定性形成压制，短期豆类期价维持震荡偏弱运行。 专业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and intraday fluctuations. Gold's short - term trend is dominated by the Greenland issue, and copper's short - term trend is highly correlated with precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. New York gold once approached $4,900 per ounce and then dropped below $4,800 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The direct cause of the gold price increase was the sharp rise in the "Greenland" geopolitical risk. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries. However, after reaching an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the Arctic region, the short - term market risk - aversion demand decreased, leading to a decline in the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price rose first and then fell, and the night - session main contract price dropped to the 100,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend of copper is highly correlated with precious metals. The reversal of Trump's stance on the Greenland issue led to a decline in precious metals, which in turn drove down the copper price. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate, the monthly spread continued to weaken, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remained [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][5]