投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.42%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应低位回升，而需求在走弱，基本面表现偏弱，淡季钢价承压 运行，相对利好的是政策预期与成本支撑，后续走势延续低位震荡运 行，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求迎改善，而供应处于低位，供需格局有所好转，给予价格 支撑，但需求韧性存疑，且库存水平偏高 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract of Shanghai copper increased in position and accelerated its upward movement, approaching the 100,000 mark during the session, but then declined with a reduction in positions at the end of the session. This week, copper prices fluctuated upwards with an increased intraday amplitude and intensified long - short competition. Due to the overseas Christmas holiday, there is a strong willingness for funds to take profits. High copper prices are suppressing downstream consumption, causing the basis and monthly spreads to weaken, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper has risen significantly. With overseas markets closed in the short term and significant domestic industrial pressure, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average when prices decline [6]. - **沪铝**: This week, it showed a volatile trend, with the futures price reaching the high level in early December. There is a strong willingness for short - term long positions to take profits. Overseas markets are closed for Christmas. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the industry is passively following. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game around the 22,400 mark in the short term [7]. - **沪镍**: This week, nickel prices rebounded significantly with an increase in positions and broke through the operating center in the second half of the year. This was mainly due to the change in industrial supply - demand expectations, leading to an oversold rebound. On the industrial side, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia has increased, driving up nickel prices. As the main nickel futures contract rose to the 130,000 mark, rebounding nearly 20,000 yuan/ton from the low level, there is a strong willingness for short - term long positions to take profits, and long - short competition has intensified [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **铜**: On December 25th, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to the 22nd and 27,700 tons compared to the 18th. In the North China spot market for electrolytic copper, high copper prices have suppressed demand, and as the end of the year approaches, the pressure on holders has increased. The upstream is selling at a lower price to move goods, resulting in a continuous and significant decline in the spot premium in North China to an average discount of 600 yuan/ton, a new low in nearly three years. CSPT held its Q4 2025 general manager's office meeting in Shanghai on December 25th and decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee for Q1 2026 [10]. - **铝**: On December 25th, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to the 22nd and 51,000 tons compared to the 18th [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **铜**: The report includes charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **铝**: The report contains charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum - to - London ratio, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [25][27][29] - **镍**: The report has charts on nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][39][43]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report believes that due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures (SC) are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending movement. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be on the stronger side [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - For crude oil 2602, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, the intraday trend is on the stronger side, and the overall reference view is a stronger - trending movement [1]. - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a stronger - trending movement [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The Trump administration in the US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers. Approximately 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of oil tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a substantial global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term outlook of oscillation [1][5][6]. - Shanghai rubber is likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern on Friday [5]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [6]. 3. Summary by Category Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Mid - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Stronger operation [1] - **Core Logic**: With domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas entering the off - season, the supply pressure of domestic full - latex has significantly decreased. The downstream domestic auto production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. The industrial logic is strengthening, and the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has increased supply - side disturbances, enabling Shanghai rubber to break through the triangular convergence pattern and move upwards [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Mid - term**: Oscillation [1] - **Intraday**: Stronger [1] - **Reference View**: Stronger operation [1] - **Core Logic**: The downstream domestic auto production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected, but the potential supply pressure is prominent, weakening the market driving force. The rising price of crude oil futures has strengthened the cost support [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are considered to be in an oscillating and slightly bullish state [5][6][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating and slightly bullish, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly bullish [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the Christmas holiday, the CBOT market is closed, and the international market guidance is temporarily absent. In the domestic market, traders are mostly on the sidelines, paying close attention to the large - scale shutdown plan of oil mills. The current rise in US soybeans partially offsets the suppression of import costs by the appreciation of the RMB. In the short term, exchange rate fluctuations, external market rhythm, and domestic supply - demand rhythm interact, and the market lacks the driving force for a unilateral trend [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating and slightly bullish, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly bullish [7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the Christmas holiday, the external market is closed, and the oil market lacks guidance, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The improvement of the supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is conducive to inventory reduction. Indonesia's B50 plan falls short of expectations and it plans to heavily punish violating enterprises, which continues to disrupt the market. Palm oil is under pressure before the inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil or large - scale purchases by India. Without bullish drivers, palm oil falls into a wide - range oscillation, and capital games intensify [7] Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail in the text, summarized from the table) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating and slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating and slightly bullish [6] - **Core Logic**: Supported by US soybean costs, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean costs, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 will be in a low - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively, due to a weakly stable supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall outlook of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern, where steel prices move in an oscillating manner. The supply is at a relatively low level and rising with limited increase, while the demand is weakening [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply is rising from a low level but with limited increase and remains at a relatively low position, providing support for steel prices, yet there is an expectation of further increase. Demand is running weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and at the lowest level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support, so the subsequent trend will continue to be in low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term trend is range - bound, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of "oscillation" and an intraday view of "bullish". The long - term trend is positive due to policy support and expected capital inflows, but there may be short - term disturbances [1][5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillation", the intraday trend is "bullish", and the overall view is "range - bound". The core logic is the unchanged policy support expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM have an intraday view of "bullish" and a medium - term view of "oscillation", with an overall reference view of "range - bound". Yesterday, the stock indices oscillated and rose, with IM and IC leading the gains. The total stock market trading volume was 1921.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6 billion yuan from the previous day. In the long - term, policy support and capital inflow trends support the stock indices. However, in the short - term, there may be disturbances due to tightened capital liquidity at the end of the year, unclear policy signals, and the stock indices approaching previous highs [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend, with the 2605 contract showing a wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between long and short factors [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation", with the core logic of the game between long and short factors leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising at a high level, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is weakly stable. Steel mill profitability improvement is limited, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, but pre - holiday restocking is relatively positive. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at annual highs, with active overseas ore supply. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall ore supply remains high. The price is under pressure due to weakening demand and high supply, but there are still structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are strong, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that during the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the market trading atmosphere cools down. Also, after the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, the US dollar index is weak, and gold prices have risen this week. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity, and in China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The current high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: This week, gold prices have risen, with New York gold breaking through $4500 and Shanghai gold breaking through 1000 yuan. After the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, and the weak US dollar index is beneficial to gold prices. During the overseas Christmas holiday, the domestic trading atmosphere weakens, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity. In China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. During overseas holidays, Shanghai copper continues to operate strongly, and there is a risk of short - term price decline due to long - position liquidation. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]