证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, Taobao's revenue increased by 8.7% to 101.4 billion RMB, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao was 41.7 billion RMB, up 8.4% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in high-margin revenue streams [2] - The company anticipates continued commercial capability release in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Cloud Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q4 FY25 increased by 17.7%, with external revenue also growing by 17% [3] - The adjusted EBITA profit margin rose to 8.0%, despite a slight decline due to increased investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [3] - Management noted that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The FY26 and FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 189.6 USD for US shares and 185.1 HKD for Hong Kong shares, corresponding to 18.7, 16.1, and 14.9 times the FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 996.347 billion for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was CNY 129.470 billion, up 62.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q4 FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 236.454 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit of CNY 12.382 billion, which is a significant increase of 278.7% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company has initiated a special cash dividend of USD 1.05 per ADS and a one-time cash special dividend of USD 0.95 per ADS, enhancing shareholder returns [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's core business segments showed strong performance, particularly in the Taotian Group, which saw a 11.8% increase in customer management revenue in Q4 FY2025, driven by an increase in take rate and effective marketing tools [2]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group experienced a revenue growth of 17.7% year-on-year, reaching CNY 30.127 billion, with strong demand for AI products, which have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report has adjusted the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 downwards by 5% and 1% respectively, now predicting CNY 169.813 billion and CNY 185.318 billion. A new forecast for FY2028 is introduced at CNY 197.920 billion [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming fiscal years are 11.56% for FY2026, 6.71% for FY2027, and 5.29% for FY2028 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY 7.11 for FY2026, CNY 7.64 for FY2027, and CNY 7.89 for FY2028 [10][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 40.20% by FY2026 and remain stable through FY2028 [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 1.197 billion shares for USD 11.9 billion in FY2025, reducing the number of ordinary shares by 5.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 FY25 revenue for Taobao Group was 101.4 billion RMB, up 8.7% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao Group was 41.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2] - The company expects to continue releasing commercial capabilities in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Revenue Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts FY26/FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new FY28 estimate of 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The SOTP-based target price for the US stock is set at 189.6 USD, and for the Hong Kong stock at 185.1 HKD, corresponding to 18.7/16.1/14.9 times FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16] Segment Performance - The cloud business continues to show strong growth, with management noting that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [3] - The management is optimistic about the future growth of the cloud segment, driven by expanding customer types beyond the internet sector [3] Key Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for FY26 is 1,088.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [6] - The adjusted EBITA margin for FY26 is expected to be 18.0% [18] - The adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at 9.42 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.43 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for VSTECS with a target price of HKD 8.18 [3] Core Insights - VSTECS has shown strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue growth of 16-17% year-on-year, gross profit growth of 20-21%, and net profit growth of 28-29%, aligning with management's guidance for a revenue growth rate of 15-20% over the next three years [3] - The company has demonstrated a commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement by voluntarily updating its quarterly financial data [3] - The strong performance is attributed to the termination of low-margin operations in Southeast Asia, which has positively impacted overall profit margins [3] Financial Performance Summary - **Consumer Electronics Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 16,804 million (up 5.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 1.70% [2] - **Enterprise Systems Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 27,283 million (up 21.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 2.02% [2] - **Cloud Computing Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 2,420 million (up 55.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 3.95% [2] - **Total Revenue**: - Expected to reach HKD 46,508 million in H1 2025 (up 16.0% year-on-year) - Gross Profit: HKD 2,065 million (up 16.3% year-on-year) - Net Profit: HKD 591 million (up 30.3% year-on-year) [2][3]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q4 results exceeded expectations with revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1] - The report highlights the significant growth in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) at 71.1 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and a notable increase in cloud revenue at 30.1 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued improvement in e-commerce monetization rates and the long-term growth prospects of AI and cloud services [1][5] Financial Data Summary - FY2025 revenue is projected to reach 996.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6% [2] - Adjusted EBITA for FY2025 is expected to be 173.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 157.9 billion yuan, with a 0% growth rate compared to FY2024 [2] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 8.31 yuan for FY2025 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Alibaba is set at 153 HKD, with the current stock price at 122.1 HKD [3][5] - The report suggests a 12x PE for e-commerce and a 5x PS for cloud business, indicating strong valuation potential [5] Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 17.3%, a 6-month increase of 46.6%, and a 12-month increase of 59.3% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][4]. Core Insights - The company plans to invest $4 million in building an automated resin lens production line in Japan, aiming to enhance its global strategic layout and customization capabilities. The new facility is expected to increase production capacity by 20% compared to existing operations, targeting the North American market [2]. - The establishment of the Japanese factory is seen as a strategic move to mitigate potential tariff risks, improve service to Asia-Pacific customers, and replicate overseas factory construction experience in Thailand to reduce production costs [8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in lens manufacturing, with a dual strategy of self-branded products and ODM partnerships, particularly in the smart glasses sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [8]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,061 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 3,538 million, maintaining a growth rate of 19.2% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million in 2024, growing to 839 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24.6% [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.00 in 2024 to 1.75 in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][9]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's stock is set at 40.50 HKD, with the current price at 24.50 HKD, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22.5 in 2024 to 12.9 by 2027, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 6.1 in 2024 to 2.4 in 2027, further indicating potential value appreciation [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.077 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1%. The gross profit reached 444 million yuan, also up by 30.1%, with a gross margin of 41.2%, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The R&D expense ratio decreased by 8 percentage points to 34.2% [2][5][9] - The enterprise-level Agent is expanding rapidly, with the "Prophet AI" platform generating 805 million yuan in revenue, a significant year-on-year increase of 60.5%, accounting for 74.8% of total revenue, up from 60.6% in the previous year [2][5][9] - The number of benchmark users reached 59 in Q1 2025, up from 54 in the same period last year, with an average revenue contribution of 11.67 million yuan per user, compared to 8.90 million yuan previously [9] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.077 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 444 million yuan and a gross margin of 41.2%. The R&D expense ratio was 34.2%, down from 42% [2][5][9] AI Platform Growth - The "Prophet AI" platform's revenue was 805 million yuan, marking a 60.5% increase year-on-year, and its share of total revenue rose to 74.8% [2][5][9] Customer and Market Demand - The company is actively addressing the increasing demand for AI transformation among clients, with significant growth in the number of benchmark users and average revenue per user [9]