Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. The sub-sectors saw significant gains, with new materials up 8.62%, precious metals up 6.13%, industrial metals up 3.34%, energy metals up 2.29%, and minor metals up 2.17% [1][13] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting market sentiment, particularly affecting industrial metals, while precious metals like gold are benefiting from a declining US dollar index and increased safe-haven demand due to these tensions [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the index by 4.04 percentage points [13] - The non-ferrous metals sub-sectors all saw increases, with the new materials sector leading [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with LME copper at $9,648/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,010/ton, down 1.17% [2][31] - Aluminum prices increased, with LME aluminum at $2,503/ton, up 2.10%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,440/ton, up 1.84%. Low inventory levels and rising overseas oil prices are supporting aluminum prices [3][35] - Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,627/ton, down 1.35%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,815/ton, down 2.55% [38] - Tin prices rose, with LME tin at $32,780/ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE tin at ¥263,690/ton, up 0.03% [41] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold at $3,452.60/oz, up 3.65%, and SHFE gold at ¥794.36/g, up 1.42%. The decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions are driving this increase [4][44]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold, which has led to an increase in gold prices [3] - Basic metals such as copper and aluminum are experiencing divergent price trends, with copper prices remaining stable while aluminum prices have seen a slight increase [2][23] - The tungsten market is experiencing price increases, although market activity remains subdued [4][56] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with current prices at 78,350 CNY/ton. Domestic supply is high, and export plans are being arranged by some smelters, leading to potential inventory pressures [2][14] - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with current prices at 20,465 CNY/ton, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory [2][23] - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the average price at 773.50 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week [3][27] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate at 252,500 CNY/ton [4][56] - The lithium market remains weak, with prices stabilizing around 60,000-65,000 CNY/ton [41][42] - Cobalt prices are stable, with the CIF price at 11.3-11.6 USD/pound, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [44][45] Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices have decreased by 1.4% to 442,500 CNY/ton, while heavy rare earths have also seen slight declines [5] - The magnetic materials sector is expected to improve as licensing for manufacturers progresses, indicating potential long-term opportunities [5] Market Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Rare Earth Holdings [2][5][26]

油煤比大幅走扩，煤价拐点渐近重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.6.8 《国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤 加速探底或近底部—行业点评报告》 -2025.6.4 《煤价企稳和环渤海港去库，否极泰 来 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.6.2 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：油煤比大幅走扩，煤价拐点渐近重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，截至 6 月 13 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 609 元/吨，环比持平，CCTD 动力煤现货价（Q5500）为 618 元/吨，环比持平。从 供给端来看，国内生产方面，截至 6 月 8 日，晋陕蒙三省 442 家煤矿开工率 80.7%，环比下跌 0.6 个百分点，其中山西省煤矿开工率 69.8%，环比 ...

Market Overview - On June 13, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both dropped over 1% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 1.50 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 200.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, national defense and military, and public utilities sectors showed resilience, with respective gains of 2.05%, 1.72%, and 0.48% [2][3] - Conversely, the beauty care, media, and food and beverage sectors faced declines, with losses of 4.12%, 2.53%, and 2.37% respectively [2] Stock Highlights - In the oil and petrochemical sector, Tongyuan Petroleum hit a 20% limit up, while other stocks like Potential Energy and Beiken Energy also saw significant gains [3] - The defense and military sector saw stocks like Chenxi Aviation and Jieqiang Equipment reach a 20% limit up, indicating strong investor interest [3] Market Trends - The A-share market showed a mixed performance over the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index down 0.25% and 0.60% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [4] - A total of 13 industry sectors saw gains this week, with non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture leading the way [4] Capital Flow - On June 13, the net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 37.891 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a net outflow of 7.936 billion yuan [4][5] - Despite the outflow, 1968 stocks saw net inflows, while 3163 stocks experienced net outflows, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [4] Financing Activity - From June 9 to June 12, the financing balance of A-shares increased, with notable inflows in the pharmaceutical, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] - The total financing balance reached 1.8089 trillion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 12.579 billion yuan over the four-day period [5][6] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is likely to maintain a strong support level, with potential for a continued upward trend due to economic recovery and liquidity [6][7] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors such as gold, military, brokerage, and technology, with a focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks and new consumption areas [7]

Investment Scale and Trends - The aluminum profile industry in China has experienced fluctuating investment events and amounts from 2011 to 2024, with a peak in 2023 where 6 financing events occurred, totaling 2.271 billion RMB, primarily driven by a strategic investment from Rusal in October 2023 [1] - In 2024, the investment activity slightly declined, with 5 events totaling 501 million RMB, and as of May 6, 2025, there have been 2 events amounting to 40 million RMB [1] Investment Rounds and Focus - The investment rounds in the aluminum profile industry are predominantly strategic investments, indicating a trend of resource integration and industry chain extension among mature companies rather than support for startups [3] - The focus of investments is on high-performance alloys, reflecting the industry's shift towards advanced materials [7] Regional Investment Concentration - The majority of financing events are concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with 8 and 3 events respectively, followed by Shandong, Anhui, and Zhejiang with 2 events each [5] - This concentration is attributed to the complete aluminum industry chain in these regions, which reduces transaction costs and enhances production efficiency, alongside a mature market environment and abundant financial resources [5] Investor Composition - The primary investors in the aluminum profile industry are capital organizations, accounting for 89% of the investment entities, with notable representatives including Huading Investment and Shijue Capital [12] - Only 11% of the investors are from industrial entities, such as Guangdong Hongtu and Rusal [12] Investment Funds - There are numerous private equity funds related to the aluminum industry, with 20 identified through the China Securities Investment Fund Association, indicating a robust investment landscape [11] Mergers and Acquisitions - The aluminum profile industry has seen significant horizontal acquisitions among midstream companies as a mainstream strategy for scale expansion, with several notable mergers and acquisitions recorded [15] - Recent acquisitions include China Aluminum's 100% acquisition of Qingdao Light Metal in March 2023, showcasing the trend of consolidation in the industry [15] Summary of Investment and M&A Activity - The investment activity in China's aluminum profile industry has been characterized by fluctuations, primarily concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong, with capital organizations leading the investments, and a trend towards horizontal mergers and acquisitions for scale expansion [16]

沪指6月11日上涨0.52%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有28个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、农林牧 渔，涨幅分别为2.21%、2.02%。有色金属行业位居今日涨幅榜首位。跌幅居前的行业为医药生物、通 信、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.41%、0.28%、0.10%。 有色金属行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300963 | 中洲特材 | -4.23 | 19.99 | -8251.84 | | 603072 | 天和磁材 | 4.19 | 44.93 | -5063.13 | | 600595 | 中孚实业 | 7.39 | 4.01 | -4479.37 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 0.42 | 0.73 | -4436.32 | | 603979 | 金诚信 | 5.93 | 1.82 | -3948.55 | | 300127 | 银河磁体 | 8.59 | 24.05 | -3441.94 | | 688102 | 斯瑞新材 | -1.17 | 3.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Fund announced the resignation of fund manager Kang Kai for personal reasons, with Sun Jiqing taking over the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund [2][3] Fund Manager Transition - Kang Kai resigned on June 6, 2025, and Sun Jiqing, the current head of the research department, has taken over the fund [3] - Sun Jiqing previously managed the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund from September 8, 2015, to June 1, 2024, and has not managed any equity products in the past year [3] Fund Performance - The Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund was established on September 8, 2015, and has seen a net value decline of 21% since inception, a 29.08% decline over the past three years, a 0.88% decline over the past year, and a 2.07% increase over the past six months [3][4] - As of March 31, 2025, the fund's net asset value had decreased significantly from an initial subscription amount of approximately 466 million to about 1.7348 million, with C-class shares valued at only 52,300 [4] Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on industries with supply-side clearing or significant capacity constraints, selecting companies with low capital expenditure or those experiencing capacity clearing, which are expected to have high upside potential during industry reversals [5] - The current investment environment suggests that gold is a relatively stable asset, while the long-term supply constraints for copper and aluminum are unlikely to change, indicating potential investment opportunities following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5]

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]