晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 核心结论 分析师 【电子】2026 年电子年度策略：端云算力同频共振，自主可控步履铿锵 AI 硬件：国产 AI 芯片发展迅速，算力高景气度下，PCB、存储等供不应求。 半导体：全球资本开支重回增长轨道，晶圆扩产驱动设备国产化与先进封装 高景气。 端侧：AI 重塑终端形态，硬件升级与新兴品类开启新一轮创新周期。 【航海装备Ⅱ】船舶行业系列报告之二：船舶：摘取皇冠明珠，国产 LNG 船扬帆起航 LNG 运输船是现代造船工业皇冠上璀璨的明珠，其技术壁垒较高，是中国 造船业一直想要突破的高端船舶产品。2008 年 4 月 3 日，中国首制 14.7 万 立方米系列 LNG 船"大鹏昊"成功交付，打破了西方垄断 LNG 船市场的局 面，成功实现了"国轮国造"。 【计算机】英伟达 LPU 方案印证专用推理芯片的可行性 我们认为：英伟达将 LPU 整合进自身 AI 芯片体系，展现了专用推理芯片 （ASIC/DSA）在生成式 AI 推理计算中的重要性。这或将印证国产 AI 芯片 通过专业推理架构，在 AI 推理侧实现性能突破的可能性。AI 推理芯片的高 速迭代，或将推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

碳酸锂专题：津巴布韦变化如何影响碳酸锂供需 20260226 摘要 2026 年全球锂需求预计达 213 万吨碳酸锂当量，同比增长 33%，主要 由动力电池和储能需求驱动，其中动力电芯增速预计达 25%，储能增速 约 50%，但需结合电芯供应约束评估。 2026 年全球锂资源供给预计为 225-230 万吨碳酸锂当量，同比增长超 30%，中国、阿根廷、智利和澳大利亚为主要增量来源，但国内上游供 给扩张慢于下游，有效产能受利润分配和原料成本压力制约。 国内碳酸锂市场 2026 年预计呈紧平衡，过剩量约 1.5-2 万吨，库销比 不足 5 天，价格趋势偏强，季节性低点可能在 7-8 月，高点在 10-11 月， 海外锂盐企业供应心态变化或限制对华进口量大幅增加。 津巴布韦出口禁令若持续超过两个月，可能导致国内碳酸锂月度供应减 少 1-1.5 万吨，影响比例约 10%-15%，短期内价格将明显冲高，但受 多方面管控，持续性存在不确定性，或加速海外锂资源释放。 津巴布韦禁令旨在加强管控不合规出口，推动资源就地转化，要求企业 在当地建设硫酸锂产线，但目前仅华友具备相关资质，其他项目进展缓 慢，禁令执行时点存在协商空间。 ...

津巴布韦最新锂矿政策解读及现状分析 20260227 摘要 津巴布韦新规明确限制代理商和第三方贸易商出口锂矿，要求出口主体 必须是持有有效采矿权且拥有经批准选矿厂的矿业公司，旨在规范资源 开发和出口秩序。 政策新增省级矿业办公室推荐信要求，强化地方层级审核，出口需经贸 部、税务局、矿业委员会等多部门参与监管，海关及地方监管部门执行， 未按规定办理出口许可将被拒绝放行。 津巴布韦锂精矿出口规模若按 6.0 品位折算，2025 年预计约为 40 万吨， 但若按未折算的绝对量口径，则在上百万吨级别，品位差异是造成折算 差异的核心因素。 中资矿企补交材料并恢复正常出口的周期预计约 1~3 个月，但由于企业 通常持有未过期且配额未用尽的出口许可，短期内中国盐厂面临原料断 供风险不大。 津巴布韦锂矿出口配额并非一次性核定全年量，而是分批次申请、滚动 审批，单次配额会锁量锁价，申请规模通常与自身产出能力匹配，一年 内可能需申请多次。 使用，并不构成对所有存量配额的即时冻结或全面叫停。 本轮政策相较 2022 年、2023 年讨论口径，最关键的新增变化是什么？政策 出台的长期背景是什么？ 相较 2022 年、2023 年沟通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].

周度报告—碳酸锂 考虑进出口后，我们预期 3 月国内碳酸锂去库 2000 吨左右。Q2 碳酸锂仍有望小幅去库，Q3 供应放量后或有所累库。津巴布韦 出口政策变化后，短期内国内冶炼厂有库存，影响相对可控；长 期将左右碳酸锂全年的累库/去库趋势。若碳酸锂价格上涨至 20 万，或导致头部新能源整车企业无净利润、储能收益率降低，届 时也需警惕需求端出现负反馈。策略上，短周期内仍以偏多思路 看待，中期关注供应放量后价格回调，但碳酸锂价格中枢或仍会 较之前有显著提升。 ★风险提示 津巴布韦扰动供给，3 月需求排产符合预期 [★Ta津b巴le_布Su韦m扰m动ary供] 给，3 月需求排产符合预期 有 色 金 2 月 25 日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出 口(含在途货物)。当前在津巴布韦当地拥有锂盐或硫酸锂生产产 能的企业仍可申请锂精矿出口许可证，且硫酸锂目前允许出口， 其他项目何时能恢复正常出口仍是未知数，因此预计影响月供给 量 1.2 万吨 LCE。后续多家上市公司对此进行回应，目前等待政 策细则，部分企业提前把津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发出以减少 影响。考虑到在锂价高企的背景下，津巴布韦彻底终止锂矿出 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, with specific recommendations for various companies in the precious and base metals sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The military conflict between the US and Iran has heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. The report anticipates a significant rise in gold prices driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][4]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to the ongoing geopolitical situation and domestic recovery post-holiday. The report highlights a steady recovery in production and demand for aluminum and copper, while also noting potential supply constraints for lithium and cobalt [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 9.77% during the reporting period, indicating strong performance in the nonferrous metals sector [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts and favorable valuations [2][4]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are projected to stabilize post-holiday, with expected trading ranges between 22,800 and 24,000 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight decrease in production due to the holiday but anticipates a recovery as downstream processing resumes [29][30]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 12,800 and 13,500 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic inventory levels. The report indicates a cautious market sentiment with weak demand impacting prices [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are forecasted to rise significantly due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. The report emphasizes the role of central bank purchases in supporting gold prices [2][4]. - Silver's industrial demand may face challenges due to the impact of cheaper materials in photovoltaic applications, potentially affecting its price trajectory [2][4]. 4. Energy Metals - The report highlights supply constraints for lithium and cobalt, with Zimbabwe's policy changes affecting lithium prices and ongoing delays in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to tightening supply from Indonesia, with the report noting a significant reduction in export quotas [2][4]. 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, China Gold International, and Western Mining, based on their strong earnings potential and market positioning [2][4].

节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...