证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产链有望震荡向上 2026 年 02 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《继续看好地产链估值修复》 2026-01-26 《社融增速小幅回落，关注红利高股 息等方向》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.1.23–2026.1.30，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.73%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-1.59%，超 额收益分别为 0.65%、2.32%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The real estate market in first-tier cities has shown strong performance, particularly in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2] - Government debt issuance has significantly increased, with a total of 863.35 billion yuan in January 2026, reflecting a 204.3% month-on-month increase and a 54.8% year-on-year increase, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal projects [1] - The glass manufacturing sector is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to ease supply tensions [1][3] - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand recovery, particularly in areas like Tibet and Xinjiang [1][2] - The demand for fiberglass remains robust, driven by growth in wind energy and high-end applications, indicating structural investment opportunities [1][6] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the national cement price index is 342.94 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.278 million tons, a decrease of 4.27% [2][18] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns is 45.19%, up 2.77 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight recovery in production [2][18] - The market is currently undergoing structural adjustments, with infrastructure remaining the main support but showing weak growth [2][18] Glass Industry Tracking - As of January 29, 2026, the average price of float glass is 1144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [3][31] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 49.27 million weight boxes, down 500,000 from the previous week [3][31] - Demand is expected to slow down as many small processing plants will shut down for the holiday, leading to a quieter market [3][31] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases, while supply remains unchanged [6] - The average price of electronic yarn is stable, with expectations of price increases in high-end products due to ongoing demand [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber price remains stable, with a weekly production of 2,369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [7] - The industry continues to face profitability challenges, with an average production cost of 113,300 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from the recovery in second-hand housing and renovation demand, with significant potential for market share growth [1][6]

本报记者 周尚伃 从推荐频次看，2月份，紫金矿业、万华化学、中国太保均获3家券商推荐；中际旭创、北新建材、兆易创新、中国中免等 个股获2家券商推荐。其中，推荐紫金矿业的券商有华泰证券、中国银河、光大证券，推荐万华化学的券商有中泰证券、光大 证券、太平洋证券，推荐中国太保的券商有中泰证券、太平洋证券和平安证券。 值得关注的是，浙商证券将紫金矿业选定为2026年行业年度金股。对此，浙商证券金属行业负责人沈皓俊表示，紫金矿业 是全球黄金与铜资源龙头企业。多重因素影响下，去年以来，金铜价格迎来主升浪，受益于巨龙铜矿等持续投产增量，该公司 有望实现量价齐升，叠加锂价筑底反弹，第三成长曲线有望持续贡献增量，推动业绩增长，当前估值水平处于行业低位。 对于2月份A股市场的整体走势，券商分析师普遍持审慎乐观态度。中国银河证券策略首席分析师杨超认为，春节前流动性 仍相对充裕，市场可能迎来核心做多期。预计2月上旬至春节前，市场资金仍将在科技和有色等板块加速轮动，业绩亮眼的标 的将成为焦点。 中信证券首席A股策略分析师裘翔表示，站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿2026年一季 度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修 ...

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with some consumer building materials products seeing price increases due to rising raw material costs [2][5]. - The cement sector is expected to show resilience in profitability, supported by significant infrastructure projects and urban renewal initiatives in 2026, despite a projected decline in cement production in 2025 [4][41]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on high-end products and green transformation, while traditional segments face challenges from real estate market weaknesses [42][43]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing a trend of price stabilization and recovery, driven by demand for renovation and urban renewal, despite a slowdown in new construction [44]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - In Q1 2026, cement companies are expected to implement significant production cuts, with an average shutdown period of 46 days nationwide, aimed at balancing supply and demand [4][41]. - The average cost of P.O42.5 bulk cement is reported at 197 RMB/ton, with a gross profit margin of 17% [4]. - The industry is projected to recover gradually, contingent on effective supply-side policies and infrastructure investment [4][41]. Glass and Fiberglass - The flat glass market is expected to stabilize as production capacity is controlled and environmental standards are enforced, although demand remains weak due to real estate sector challenges [42]. - The fiberglass industry is in a recovery phase, with a focus on eliminating inefficient capacity and enhancing production quality through technological upgrades [43]. Consumer Building Materials - Major companies like Keshun and Sankeshu have announced price increases due to rising costs of raw materials, indicating a trend towards price recovery in the sector [44]. - The demand for renovation and urban renewal is expected to drive growth, while leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand strength and service improvements [44]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement, Tapa Group, and Huaxin Cement [4][45].

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the Chinese paint industry, highlighting the performance of leading companies such as SanKeTree and Beixin Building Materials, with a focus on revenue, profit margins, and product offerings [1][2]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, SanKeTree reported a revenue of approximately 58.16 billion yuan, while Beixin Building Materials achieved 135.58 billion yuan [2]. - SanKeTree's paint-related business revenue was 33.69 billion yuan, significantly higher than Beixin's 25.11 billion yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin for SanKeTree was 32.81%, compared to Beixin's 29.53% [2]. Product Structure - SanKeTree's revenue from wall paints accounted for over 58% of its total income, with home decoration wall paint generating 17.95 billion yuan (31% of total revenue) [6]. - The company also reported revenues of 17.32 billion yuan from base materials and auxiliary materials (30% of total revenue), and 15.74 billion yuan from engineering wall paints (27% of total revenue) [6]. Regional Distribution - In the first half of 2025, the East China region contributed 25.88 billion yuan to SanKeTree's revenue, representing 46% of total revenue [8]. - The Central China region accounted for 7.69 billion yuan (14%), while South China, Southwest, and North China contributed 13%, 12%, and 10% respectively [8]. Product Portfolio - SanKeTree's product offerings are categorized into seven major systems, including home decoration, engineering, waterproofing, furniture coatings, and artistic coatings [11]. - The company emphasizes a comprehensive product range, including latex paints, wood paints, waterproof materials, and various specialized coatings [11]. Strategic Development - The company plans to enhance brand recognition through collaborations with cultural institutions and sports teams, while also focusing on green production and ESG principles [15]. - Future strategies include expanding into industrial coatings and optimizing supply chain management to improve production efficiency and product delivery [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Upstream Cycle Products**: Benefiting from loose monetary conditions and a bottoming capacity cycle, supply-demand tight balance is driving price increases in sectors like chemicals, black chain, and real estate chain, presenting investment opportunities. Short-term market remains strong with long-term logic supporting this trend, but structural rotation and cost-effectiveness need to be monitored [1][2] Chemical Industry - **Current Situation**: The chemical industry is experiencing a hot market, with public fund holdings in large chemical sectors still underweight. Policies limiting new capacity and negative growth in capital expenditure are restricting supply, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: 1. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Focus on companies with good resource endowments benefiting from high oil prices and potential value assessments [4] 2. **Basic Chemicals**: After a long bottoming process, current price differentials and valuations have safety margins. Key assets benefiting from unexpected demand and marginal changes in dual carbon policies should be monitored [4] 3. **Cyclical Leaders**: Attention should be given to tire companies with overseas expansion potential [4] Coal Sector - **Current Situation**: The coal sector has seen supply contraction and increased overseas demand, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating potential price increases. Many companies are undervalued from a price-to-book (PB) perspective, especially those with high spot market ratios [5][7] - **Investment Logic**: Companies with high spot ratios are expected to benefit significantly from rising coal prices. Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International [6] Precious Metals - **Market Dynamics**: In the context of global turmoil, physical assets like gold are rising, with ongoing central bank purchases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining International and Shandong Gold [10] - **Industrial Metals**: Favorable outlook for aluminum and copper, with specific recommendations for China Aluminum and Zijin Mining [10][11] Logistics and Delivery - **SF Holding**: The company shows potential for absolute returns and valuation recovery, with a projected absolute return rate of 3.8% for 2025 and 2026. The company is at a ten-year low in valuation, with significant room for EPS upgrades and PE recovery [12] - **Third-party Delivery**: SF's leading position in the third-party delivery sector is expected to enhance performance through partnerships with major internet companies [12] Insurance Sector - **2026 Outlook**: The insurance sector is expected to perform strongly due to resonance in both asset and liability sides. The demand for dividend insurance is increasing, and the long-term interest rates are stabilizing, enhancing profit elasticity for insurance companies [23][24] Construction Materials - **Investment Opportunities**: Traditional undervalued construction materials like renovation materials, glass, and cement still hold investment value. Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and China Liansu [25] Real Estate Sector - **Recent Trends**: The real estate sector has rebounded due to bullish market sentiment and policy expectations. Anticipated easing measures in core cities may lead to a short-term market recovery [26][27] Engineering Machinery - **2026 Prospects**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to see synchronized domestic and international demand growth. Key recommendations include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [29][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a typical spring rally characterized by initial strength followed by stabilization and structural differentiation, with major indices recording positive returns as of January 28, 2026 [6] - The average daily trading volume in January reached 3.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan month-on-month, indicating a significant influx of new capital and a loose liquidity environment driving the index upward [2] - Regulatory measures, including raising the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%, have led to fluctuations in market sentiment and a deceleration in the index's upward momentum [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that technology assets are experiencing a rotation between thematic and cyclical investments, with thematic investments (e.g., commercial aerospace, AI applications) initially favored but cooling off due to increased margin requirements [4] - In the cyclical sector, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil & petrochemicals have shown strong performance driven by three factors: demand from high-end manufacturing, proactive supply-side adjustments, and external geopolitical risks [4] - The report anticipates a structural market characterized by a focus on "resources + technology + overseas expansion," with low-risk preference assets potentially outperforming in certain phases [5] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on "external demand cyclical + AI industry chain," highlighting the potential for global manufacturing recovery to support resource prices and opportunities for Chinese manufacturing to expand overseas [5] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, with a shift from thematic to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as power supply and semiconductor sectors [5] - The report recommends a selection of stocks across various sectors, including Invesco's Nonferrous ETF, Dongpeng Beverage, and Huazhong Precision, among others, reflecting a diversified investment approach [10]

Core Insights - The second season of the "National Trend New Rhythm, Intangible Cultural Heritage Craftsmanship" brand cultural event by Beixin Building Materials was launched, gathering over 60 representatives from various sectors to explore the cultural core of national trend building materials and respond to market demands for high-quality domestic products and Chinese-style homes [1][4]. Group 1: Cultural Integration and Industry Upgrade - Beixin Building Materials emphasizes that its vitality lies not only in technological breakthroughs and market expansion but also in cultural heritage and value creation, aiming to integrate intangible cultural heritage with building materials [4]. - The company is actively promoting the deep integration of traditional culture and industrial upgrades, enhancing brand value and cultural connotation through a series of brand cultural activities [4][5]. - The event highlighted the importance of cross-industry collaboration to revitalize intangible cultural heritage, ensuring that cultural "soft power" supports enterprise development [5]. Group 2: Practical Implementation and Strategic Partnerships - The event featured brand leaders from Beixin Building Materials introducing their explorations in integrating intangible cultural heritage into products, marking a shift from conceptual discussions to project-based cooperation [9]. - Strategic signing ceremonies were held between Beixin Building Materials and various intangible cultural heritage projects, laying the groundwork for marketable "intangible heritage building materials" [9]. - The company's previous initiatives in brand activities and product innovation have aligned well with market demands, resulting in a projected 70% year-on-year growth in sales of national trend products for 2024 [9].