Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that crude oil is likely to remain strong, suggesting holding long positions [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4] Core View - Crude oil is expected to continue its upward trend, and investors are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures rose $0.93 per barrel, or 1.39%, to $67.93 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.28 per barrel, or 1.87%, to $69.58 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures rose 10.70 yuan per barrel, or 2.13%, to 512.00 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - High - level cease - fire talks in Doha failed to reach an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 forecast at $56 per barrel, due to supply shortfalls and reduced idle capacity. It expects OPEC+ to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cuts [3] - Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government aid to maintain Australian smelters [3] - Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude grades for Asian buyers in August by a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [3] - Indonesia proposed near - zero tariffs on 20 major US export products in tariff negotiations; Thailand's new tariff proposal imposes zero tariffs on a large number of US imports [3] - Ukrainian forces attacked a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region with long - range drones [3] - Russia's June crude oil production was still below the OPEC+ target [3] - Libya's oil revenue in H1 2025 reached 51.1 billion Libyan dinars [3] - As of the week ending July 1, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI by 8,820 contracts to 115,063 contracts [3] - HSBC says summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East is absorbing OPEC+'s additional production [3] - About 20 fighter jets dropped over 50 munitions as the Israeli military attacked Houthi armed energy facilities at night [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada is "highly likely" to build a new oil pipeline [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].

Oil Market - Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude oil grades for Asian buyers in August, with a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that OPEC+ will increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, maintaining the Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 and $56 per barrel for 2026 [2][4] Commodities and Trade - The European Union plans to establish an emergency reserve for critical minerals to address geopolitical risks [3] - Canada is "very likely" to build a new oil pipeline, according to Prime Minister Carney [4] - OPEC+ is expected to agree to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [4] - Companies such as Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government assistance to maintain Australian smelting plants [4] - Indonesia has committed to purchasing more U.S. wheat to reach a trade agreement [4] - Indonesia's Chief Economic Minister proposed near-zero tariffs on 20 major U.S. export goods during tariff negotiations [4] - Thailand's Finance Minister announced a new tariff proposal for zero tariffs on many imports from the U.S. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade protection, the global economic downward pressure persists. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots tends to be loose, while the demand faces insufficient momentum in traditional consumption sectors and a slowdown in the growth rate of emerging consumption sectors. The degree of supply - demand surplus expands. It is expected that the zinc price center will gradually decline under pressure in the second half of the year, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher. If the macro - economy deteriorates significantly, the zinc price may seek support from the mine cost [4][94][96]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Review - In the first half of the year, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend in the oscillation center. In the first quarter, due to concerns about tariff increases and the strong US dollar, combined with the Spring Festival holiday in China, the zinc price was weak. In March, the price stabilized and rebounded and oscillated around 24,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to unexpected US tariffs, the zinc price hit a new low in the first half of the year, then stabilized and rebounded. By June 30, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.96% from the beginning of the year. The London zinc price also showed a downward trend in the oscillation range, closing at 2,741 US dollars/ton on June 30, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the year [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Situation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed signs of a slowdown, with inflation potentially rising in the future. The Fed was cautious about interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy will further suppress economic growth. The "Big Beautiful Act" may ease the economic decline to some extent but may also lead to secondary inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times to relieve the economic slowdown pressure, and the US dollar index is in a downward channel in the medium - to - long term [11][12]. 2.2 Eurozone Situation - In the first half of 2025, the Eurozone economy showed a mild recovery. The European Central Bank's continuous interest rate cuts stimulated investment and real - estate demand, and net exports increased. Inflation continued to decline. In the second half of the year, the Eurozone economy faces both opportunities and challenges. Although there is still room for interest rate cuts, the threat of tariffs may limit economic growth, and inflation may rebound [13][14]. 2.3 China's Situation - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed resilience, with stable GDP growth. Policies focused on implementing existing measures. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may slow down, with exports, consumption, and manufacturing investment facing challenges. However, infrastructure investment will remain stable, and the annual GDP growth target is still expected to be achieved [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Turns from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, the global zinc concentrate supply increased. Overseas, new projects climbed production smoothly, and some mines resumed production and increased production. In China, although the cumulative output from January to May decreased year - on - year, it is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The annual global increment is expected to be 55 - 600,000 tons [30]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Rise Significantly, and Zinc Ore Imports Remain High**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, processing fees have rebounded. By June 2025, the average monthly domestic and foreign processing fees increased significantly. In the second half of the year, there is still room for growth, but the growth rate may slow down. From January to May 2025, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports increased by 52.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year [35][36]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas Smelters Have a Mixture of Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disruption Risks Remain**: From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Overseas smelters had a mixture of production cuts and restarts. Due to high costs, there is a risk of production cuts in overseas smelters [41]. - **Refined Zinc Supply Recovers Strongly from January to June, and the Zinc Ingot Import Window Closes Again**: From January to June 2025, China's refined zinc production increased year - on - year. It is expected to maintain a high level of 550,000 - 600,000 tons per month in the second half of the year. The annual output is expected to reach 6.6 million tons, an increase of 6.84% year - on - year. The import of zinc ingots decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [47][48]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas Terminal Consumption Shows a Mixed Picture, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook Is Uncertain**: In the first half of 2025, the global refined zinc demand decreased slightly year - on - year. In the US, the real - estate market was weak, and the auto market may slow down in the second half of the year. In the Eurozone, the real - estate market showed signs of improvement, and the auto market had a mixed performance [57][58][59]. - **Initial - Stage Enterprises' Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline, and Galvanized Steel Exports Remain Strong**: The operating rates of initial - stage enterprises followed the seasonal pattern. In the second half of the year, the operating rates are expected to decline in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter. Galvanized steel exports were strong in the first half of the year but are expected to decline in the third quarter and stabilize in the fourth quarter [72][73]. - **Policy Support Increases, and Terminal Consumption Is Differentiated**: In the traditional consumption sector, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the real - estate market will continue to bottom out, the auto market will maintain good momentum, and the home - appliance market will face internal sales slowdown pressure. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic market may slow down, while the wind - power market is expected to maintain high growth [74][77][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory First Increases and Then Decreases**: In the first half of the year, the LME inventory continued to decline from a high level. In the second half of the year, it is expected to remain at a high level with a narrowing decline. The domestic inventory was at a relatively low level. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure to increase inventory in the third quarter, and it is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [92]. 4. Summary and Outlook - In the second half of the year, the global zinc concentrate supply may accelerate, and the annual increment will exceed 500,000 tons. The supply of refined zinc is expected to remain high, while the demand faces downward risks. Overall, the supply - demand surplus will expand, and the zinc price is expected to decline gradually, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher [94][96].

Group 1 - The attractiveness of the UK stock market for companies and investors is declining, with IPO financing in London dropping from £300 million to £160 million in the first half of the year, marking a 30-year low [1] - Several companies that could have chosen to list in London are opting for other markets, such as Cobalt Holdings and Shein, which have canceled their London IPO plans in favor of Hong Kong [1] - Notable companies already listed in London, like Wise and AstraZeneca, are considering relocating their primary listings to New York, raising concerns among investors in London [1] Group 2 - The valuation disadvantage of the London market compared to Wall Street is diminishing its financing appeal, with the FTSE 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio at approximately 16.6, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 27.2 [2] - The UK government's Labour Party has proposed reforms to boost the London market, including simplifying listing requirements, but there has been no significant change in capital flow trends according to the CEO of the London Stock Exchange Group [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global primary nickel supply will continue to increase, with an overall surplus, and the nickel price center will shift downward. The lower limit of the nickel price will approach the MHP integrated cost, and the upper limit will approach the RKEF nickel matte integrated cost. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will trade between 110,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [6][12][13]. - The demand growth rate of stainless steel has declined, mainly due to the suppression of overseas tariff barriers on the production and sales of stainless steel end - products. The supply side has full elasticity, the over - capacity contradiction remains unchanged, and the cost reduction opens up the downward space for stainless steel. It is estimated that the stainless steel will oscillate between 12,200 - 13,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Persistent Excess Pattern of Primary Nickel - **Global Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Persistent Excess Situation** - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The consumption in the stainless steel and alloy industries had a relatively high growth rate. There was a slight inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. - For the second half of 2025, both supply and demand are expected to grow. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is expected to be 150,000 tons [30]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Still in Excess** - In the first half of 2025, China's primary nickel total supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with inventory accumulation of 120,000 tons. - In 2025, it is expected to maintain a double - growth in supply and demand. The annual primary nickel total supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [33][34]. 2. Primary Nickel Supply - **Collision between Traditional and Emerging Nickel Supply** - Since 2022, some high - cost nickel mines globally have reduced or stopped production, with a total reduction capacity of 360,000 tons of metal. In 2024, there were many reduction and shutdown projects in Australia and other regions. - The main variables in global primary nickel supply come from emerging nickel suppliers. Indonesia's nickel - iron new capacity is the largest part of the global primary nickel supply increment, and intermediate products such as wet - process MHP and high - grade nickel matte have a direct impact on refined nickel supply and demand [37][38][39]. - **Gradual Growth of Nickel Intermediate Product Supply** - In 2024, some new nickel wet - process and high - ice nickel capacities were put into production, and there are still more than 500,000 tons of wet - process under - construction and planned capacities. However, the actual production situation needs continuous tracking due to uncertainties in wet - process capacity production and the decline in the market share of ternary batteries [45]. - **China's Refined Nickel Production Remains at a High Level** - From January to May 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative production was 175,834 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.91%. The import and export volume of refined nickel also increased significantly [59]. 3. Refined Nickel Consumption - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel's Consumption of Pure Nickel Remains Almost Zero** - Due to the large losses in the self - dissolution of nickel beans into sulfuric acid nickel in recent years, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector has declined rapidly, and currently, nickel beans are basically not used to produce sulfuric acid nickel [67]. - **Growth in Electroplating and Stainless Steel Industries** - The downstream consumption of refined nickel is mainly concentrated in alloy, stainless steel, and electroplating industries, with alloy consumption accounting for about 55%, stainless steel about 20%, and electroplating about 15%. The consumption of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel, electroplating, and alloy industries increased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and it is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year [10][68][71]. 4. Stainless Steel Sector - **Stainless Steel Capacity Statistics** - In 2025, China plans to add about 5.56 million tons of new stainless steel capacity, and Indonesia plans to add 1 million tons. However, due to many influencing factors and poor industry profit conditions, the future production progress is expected to be relatively slow [80]. - **Stainless Steel Production Statistics** - As of June 2025, the cumulative production of national stainless steel crude steel was 19.8466 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. It is expected that the annual production of stainless steel crude steel will be about 41.5 million tons [85]. - **Stainless Steel Import and Export Data Statistics** - From January to May 2025, China's stainless steel imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year. The net export volume increased significantly. The import decline was mainly due to the reduction of cold - rolled coil imports from Indonesia, and the export decline in May was mainly affected by the uncertainty of global tariff policies [98]. - **Analysis of Stainless Steel Terminal Industry Consumption** - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main consumption boost factor [104]. - **Statistics of Stainless Steel Profit Level** - As of early July 2025, the profit level of the stainless steel industry was low, and most enterprises faced great cost pressure [127]. - **Difficulty in Changing the Excess Supply - Demand Pattern of Stainless Steel** - Since 2022, the supply and demand of stainless steel have been in a state of excess. The subsequent production of stainless steel capacity to be put into production may not meet expectations, and the actual demand may be less than expected due to the uncertainty of global trade [133]. 5. Nickel - Stainless Steel Industry Chain Inventory - **Continuous Increase in Refined Nickel Inventory** - From December 27, 2024, to June 27, 2025, the global refined nickel visible inventory increased by 32,099 tons to 240,885 tons, and part of the inventory was converted into invisible inventory [11][134]. - **Relatively Stable Nickel - Iron Inventory** - Affected by the seasonality of Philippine nickel ore exports, China's nickel ore port inventory is at a medium level in the same period of history, and the nickel - iron spot inventory is at a relatively high position compared with the same period last year [139]. - **Summary of Stainless Steel Social Inventory and Futures Warehouse Receipt Data** - As of July 3, 2025, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel may remain at a high level in the third quarter and gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. The futures warehouse receipt decreased after reaching the highest level in March - early April, and the overall stainless steel inventory pressure still exists [141][142].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts, the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs, the traditional consumption off - season, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the downward trend of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories have led to a relatively strong copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures on July 2, 2025, was 80,540, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,958 lots, down 11,491 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 223,122 lots, down 861 lots from the previous day. The inventory was 22,425 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper on July 2, 2025, was 80,208, up 785 from the previous day. The basis of Shanghai copper was 450, up 885 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **LME Market**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 2, 2025, was 9,943, up 67 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 93,475, down 93,250 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro - level**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by more than $3 trillion. The Fed may appoint a successor to Chairman Powell in advance. The US ADP employment in June was 33,000, lower than expected, which slightly reduced the probability of no interest - rate cut in July, but the expected time for interest - rate cuts is still September/October/December [3]. - **Upstream**: The copper concentrate transportation of some mines was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Some copper smelters had production disruptions, while some new smelters were expected to be put into production. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July may increase. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to increase, and the import volume may be affected by the closed import window [3]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises may cut production due to high finished - product inventories. The capacity utilization rates of various copper - related downstream industries are expected to decline due to factors such as the traditional consumption off - season and the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" with expectations for overall sector returns to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to improved market sentiment, coupled with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted the non-ferrous metals sector [10][11]. - The anticipated reduction in overseas smelting capacity is gradually materializing, while there are still expectations for reductions in Chinese smelting capacity [3][10]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and demand side, a turning point is awaited [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market focus has shifted to liquidity and the potential impact of U.S. copper tariffs [2][10]. - The market is currently pricing in an implied tariff of approximately 13% on U.S. copper, with potential for further widening of price differentials if tariffs are implemented [10][11]. Supply and Demand - Overseas smelting reductions are expected to lead the way, with notable reductions already seen in facilities such as Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines [10]. - In China, the current TC spot price is at -44.8 USD/dry ton, indicating a tight copper supply situation, further exacerbated by a reduction in guidance from the Kamoa copper mine [10][11]. Price Outlook - Copper prices are expected to rise in the lead-up to the implementation of U.S. tariffs, with the market currently reflecting a 13% tariff expectation [10]. - If monetary and fiscal policies support economic stability, a turning point for copper prices may be on the horizon, despite current uncertainties in the U.S. economy [10][11]. - Demand in China is expected to weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but this is not anticipated to significantly impact copper prices due to low inventory levels [10].