（Re uters） 中国人民币对美元汇率上升。中国借助稀土出口管制等手段迫使美国做出让步，在这种情况下，美国再 次大幅提高关税的可能性大大降低。从中美的利息差来看，同样进入了人民币的相对价值容易上升的局 面。但中国人民银行似乎在进行调控…… 中国人民币对美元汇率上升。最近升至1美元兑7.10元以上，徘徊在约10个月来的高位。市场对中美关 税等摩擦的担忧消退，人民币抛售压力相较于此前有所缓解。由于中国经济增长率保持在5％以上，被 认为中国允许人民币出现一定程度的升值，未来可能会继续保持温和升值态势。 人民币对美元汇率在上周曾一度达到1美元兑7.1019元，出现了马上突破1美元兑7.1元这一关口进一步实 现人民币升值的局面。这是2024年11月以后约10个月以来的最高人民币升值、美元贬值水平。本周汇率 也主要徘徊在1美元兑7.110～7.114元。 今年4月上旬，人民币汇率曾跌至1美元兑7.3518元，创下2007年以后18年来的人民币贬值、美元升值最 高水平。当时美国特朗普政府对中国征收大幅超过100％的额外关税，由于对中国经济的前景充满担 忧，市场上抛售人民币的动向扩大。 后来，中美于5月就双方将额外关税下 ...

Overview of the Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - The bond market exhibited high volatility and heavy trading characteristics, with a flattening yield curve and a narrowing spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds [1][2][7] - The most significant turning point occurred in mid-March when the 10-year government bond yield briefly reached 1.9%, leading to a downward trend in yields for the remainder of the period [2][3] Phases of the Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - **Phase 1 (Early January to Early February)**: The central bank's increased focus on long-term bonds and tightening liquidity led to a rise in short-term rates, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 13 basis points to 1.21%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 8 basis points to 1.60%, resulting in a flattening curve [3] - **Phase 2 (Early February to Mid-March)**: Continued tight liquidity and reassessment of monetary policy expectations caused both 1-year and 10-year yields to rise by 38 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively, leading to further curve flattening [4] - **Phase 3 (Mid-March to Early April)**: The central bank's supportive stance led to a downward adjustment in yields, with the 1-year and 10-year yields falling by 26 basis points and 15 basis points to 1.63% and 1.44%, respectively [5] - **Phase 4 (Early April to End of June)**: The bond market experienced a stable and slightly loose liquidity environment, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.73%, while the 1-year yield decreased by 10 basis points to 1.34% [6] Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, with a slight downward shift in the yield center, projecting the 10-year government bond yield to have a low point around 1.5% and a high point between 1.7% and 1.8% [8] Fundamental Outlook - The economy is projected to achieve a 5% growth rate, supported by manageable tariff impacts and proactive fiscal policies, although internal factors such as real estate and financing demand will require close monitoring [9] Policy Outlook - The macro policy will focus on high-quality development amidst external uncertainties, with monetary policy expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, including potential interest rate cuts [10] Supply and Demand Outlook - Supply pressures are manageable, with a net issuance of government bonds expected to be lower than the previous year, while demand from the insurance sector may stabilize [11][12] Funding Outlook - The funding environment is anticipated to remain stable, with the central bank's reverse repo rates likely to maintain a central role, and the possibility of a rate cut in the latter part of the year [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The forum focuses on institutional - level content such as financial opening. On the opening day of the forum, the changes in treasury bond yields were generally stable, with medium - and long - term yields rising slightly and the 1 - year yield still falling. The current bond market sentiment remains optimistic, and short - term bonds are a new rotation hot - spot [4][6]. - From a medium - term perspective, the signals released by the Lujiazui Forum are in line with the trend of a more stable monetary policy rhythm under the background of the easing of China - US tariff frictions. The situation of low bond market volatility but positive sentiment is likely to continue [4][9]. Summary by Related Content Event - On June 18, 2025, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened. At the opening ceremony, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced eight major financial opening measures [5]. Comment - The forum's emphasis on financial opening and other institutional aspects led to stable changes in treasury bond yields on the opening day. The current bond market sentiment is optimistic, with limited opportunities for going long, but low opportunity costs and risks in a loose capital environment and low - volatility bond market. Short - term bonds are strong as a new rotation focus [4][6]. - With the easing of China - US tariff frictions and a more stable monetary policy rhythm, the low - volatility and positive - sentiment situation in the bond market is likely to continue [9].

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, oil prices generally fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound in oil prices at the beginning of the month, but the uncertainty after the suspension period and the continuous accelerated production increase of OPEC+ suppressed the upside space. Unless major countries make significant concessions to the US, tariff friction will re - affect the market to some extent after the 90 - day suspension period [16]. - OPEC+ has promoted an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, strengthening the tone of accelerated production increase. The oil market may face continuous accelerated production increase in the future [16]. - Under the resonance of weak macro and micro fundamentals, the long - term trend of oil prices is weak. However, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for crude oil consumption, which may resist the downward trend to some extent [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Saudi OSP - **Price Changes in July Compared to June**: - **Asia**: Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the premiums/discounts of crude oil sold to Asia in June. For July, all grades of crude oil were lowered by $0 - 0.2 per barrel, and after the reduction, they remained at a nearly two - year low [5][10]. - **Mediterranean and Europe**: All grades of crude oil's premiums/discounts to the Mediterranean and Europe were raised by $1.8 per barrel. After the increase, the premiums/discounts were near a one - and - a - half - year high [5][10]. - **America**: All grades of crude oil were raised by $0 - 0.1 per barrel, and the absolute value was still the highest globally. Saudi Arabia exports less crude oil to the Americas [10]. - **Analysis of Saudi's Actions**: The general reduction of premiums/discounts in Asia, combined with Saudi Arabia's continuous push for OPEC+ to accelerate production increase, shows that the accelerated production increase is an action by Saudi Arabia to seize market share. The increase in premiums/discounts in Europe is because the narrowing of the Brent - WTI spread makes it more expensive for Europe to buy US crude oil, increasing its interest in crude oil from other regions [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Conditions - **Price Trend**: In May, oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound at the beginning. The uncertainty after the 90 - day suspension period and OPEC+'s continuous accelerated production increase limited the upside. The long - term trend of oil prices is weak, but the third - quarter peak season may resist the decline [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Position Report**: The net long positions of Brent management funds are more supply - dependent. The net long positions increased significantly in the week ending April 1st due to supply tightening. However, with OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and macro risks, the net long positions have dropped significantly and remained low [19]. - **WTI Crude Oil Position Report**: WTI futures net long positions focus more on the macro - situation. Due to poor economic prospects, the net long positions of WTI management funds declined earlier this year and remained low. After a sharp drop in WTI oil prices, the net long positions recovered slightly due to short - covering but then continued to decline slowly [22]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure**: The near - month structure of each crude oil futures generally remains in Back, but the shape has flattened significantly. Except for SC crude oil, the far - month structure has all turned to Contango, reflecting strong current situation and weak expectations [25]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spread**: Similar to the forward curve, M1 - M12 is generally below M1 - M6 and M1 - M9, but M1 - M2 remains strong. The M1 - M2 of Middle - East Oman crude oil is the weakest due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the Middle East [28]. - **Cross - Market Futures Spread**: In the past month, Brent has been continuously weakening against WTI's first - line contract. The narrowing of the spread between the two main contracts is more obvious, with a difference of only $0.66 per barrel at the time of writing, compared with $3.02 per barrel on May 5th. This increases the cost of European imports of US crude oil, explaining the decrease in US crude oil exports and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in European premiums/discounts [31]. - **Cross - Market Spot Spread**: The spot price spread between Brent and WTI shows similar changes to the futures [33]. - **Refined Product Spot Price**: The overall trend of refined products follows that of crude oil. During the new round of decline at the end of April, the decline speed of refined products slowed down slightly. In late May, the prices of refined products showed signs of weakness when crude oil prices changed little, which is a bad signal considering the approaching US driving peak season [35][36]. - **Refined Product Spot Crack**: During the oil price decline at the end of April, the crack spreads in various regions rebounded slightly due to the slower decline of refined products. This reflects that short - term "terminal demand has not significantly declined" supports the refined product market under the influence of trade friction and OPEC+ policies. However, the crack spreads turned downward in late May when crude oil prices fluctuated little, indicating weakening terminal demand [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration is considered one of the most severe economic policy misjudgments in modern American history, leading to inflation, increased prices, and a regressive tax impact on the poorest Americans [1][2] - Tariffs have resulted in a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit and higher unemployment rates, forcing factories to lay off workers, while failing to address the actual trade issues between the U.S. and China over the past seven years [1] - The current U.S. government's policies are influenced by ignorance of economic principles and political factors, with a trend of demonizing China becoming a convenient strategy [2] Group 2 - China is perceived as a more predictable and reliable trading partner compared to the U.S., which is seen as having incredible instability and unpredictability in its trade policies [2] - The unpredictability of U.S. policies creates uncertainty for businesses and foreign trade partners, making it difficult for them to make informed and rational decisions [2] - For stable U.S.-China relations, progress can be made despite the challenges, as even trade hawks in the current U.S. administration recognize that decoupling from China is not a viable option [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangdong Hongqiang New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Hongqiang"), maintains a stable credit rating despite a decline in profitability due to the deep adjustment in the real estate industry, with expectations of continued revenue and cash flow contributions from its competitive advantages in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets increased from 20.06 billion in 2022 to 28.87 billion in 2025, while the equity attributable to shareholders rose from 15.16 billion to 16.71 billion during the same period [2]. - The company's operating income decreased from 7.61 billion in 2023 to 6.75 billion in 2024, with a net profit drop from 0.86 billion to 0.03 billion [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -0.21 billion in 2024, compared to 1.76 billion in 2023 [3]. Industry Context - The concrete admixture market is under pressure due to a slowdown in construction and new project starts, directly impacting the demand for concrete admixtures [10][12]. - The overall demand for concrete admixtures is weak, with the industry facing intensified competition and declining prices, leading to a significant drop in revenue for companies like Hongqiang [10][14]. - The company holds a leading position in the concrete admixture market in Guangdong and Guangxi, with over 50% of its revenue coming from the South China market, maintaining a gross margin above 30% [2][5]. Credit Rating and Outlook - The credit rating agency has assigned a stable outlook for Hongqiang, reflecting its competitive advantages in key regions despite ongoing industry challenges [5]. - The company’s net debt at the end of 2024 was 0.63 billion, indicating manageable financial risk [5]. Investment Projects - The company has utilized the proceeds from its convertible bonds to expand into the chemical sector, with projects entering trial production by the end of 2024 [2][19]. - The new projects aim to enhance revenue sources and improve cost advantages through upstream integration in the supply chain [19][20]. Customer and Market Dynamics - The customer base primarily consists of regional concrete mixing stations, which are closely tied to the real estate sector, exposing the company to risks associated with the ongoing real estate downturn [18]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major infrastructure construction firms, but the overall contribution from these clients remains low [18].

Core Insights - The domestic steel price index in China experienced a slight increase during the week of May 12 to May 16, with both long and flat steel price indices rising [1][6] - The overall China Steel Price Index (CSPI) reached 93.45 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.04% [1][6] Price Index Summary - The long steel price index stood at 95.67 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.73% [1] - The flat steel price index was at 91.60 points, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.90% [1] Regional Price Trends - All six major regions in China saw an increase in steel price indices, with the Central South region experiencing the highest growth [2] - The North China region's steel price index was 92.64 points, up 0.29% week-on-week, while the Northeast region had the smallest increase at 0.02% [2] Price Variation by Steel Type - Among eight major steel varieties, prices varied, with the price of 6mm high-line steel increasing by 0.68% to 3403 CNY/ton [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheet decreased by 2.42% to 3950 CNY/ton, while the price of 1mm galvanized sheet remained unchanged [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in April was 98.10 USD/ton, down 0.41% month-on-month and down 13.28% year-on-year [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices were 889 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.22% from the previous month [4] International Market Overview - The CRU international steel price index rose by 0.7% in April, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [5] - The North American steel price index increased by 1.7% month-on-month, while the Asian steel price index decreased by 0.8% [5] Market Outlook - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has stimulated some terminal demand, contributing to a slight rise in steel prices [6] - The domestic steel market is expected to experience a strong fluctuation in the short term due to various incremental policy measures [6]