1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Policy boots have landed, risk appetite has recovered, and the idea of balanced allocation is maintained. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of balance - sheet reduction, the achievement of phased economic and trade results in the China - US summit, and the release of specific contents of the Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal", market sentiment has improved. The marginal improvement in liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit domestic and overseas equity assets again, especially in the directions of technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, the short - term policy benefits have been fully priced in, and valuation pressure and capital congestion may cause the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate. In the medium term, as the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented and the policies of the Two Sessions next year are put into effect, the upward momentum of the equity market still exists. At present, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation idea. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well supported by the technology cycle and trade recovery. Black commodities have phased rebound opportunities due to policy expectations and valuation repair. Bonds maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Precious metals are sorted out in the short term but the medium - and long - term allocation value remains unchanged. The overall strategy framework of "balanced allocation, structural attack" is continued [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in the October meeting and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December to cope with the rising reserve demand and short - term interest rate fluctuations. This operation reflects the risk management idea in the economic data vacuum period, taking into account both stable growth and liquidity stability [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" and strengthen the "focus on economic construction". The PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The manufacturing industry slowed down in the short term, but the construction and service industries remained expanding. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds were accelerated to be implemented, investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - **Asset View**: With the implementation of policies, risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. The improvement of liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets at home and abroad, especially in the technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation directions. In the short term, the stock index may fluctuate due to valuation pressure and capital congestion. In the medium term, the equity market still has upward momentum. Non - ferrous metals perform well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are volatile and slightly stronger, and precious metals have medium - and long - term allocation value [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the congestion of small - and micro - cap funds. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market turnover has slightly declined. Concerns include the liquidity of the options market falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight rate decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market first rises and then falls. The supply - demand relationship weakens marginally, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is proposed. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and upstream inventory is continuously reduced. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, but loose supply - demand suppresses prices. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and the price first rises and then falls. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Glass**: The meeting expectations have been realized, and downstream demand remains weak. Concerns include spot sales. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support is strengthened, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Concerns include soda ash inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term. Concerns include supply disruptions, domestic policy exceeding expectations, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure. Concerns include ore复产 falling short of expectations, electrolytic aluminum复产 exceeding expectations, and extreme sector trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices have risen in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lead**: The resumption of production of secondary lead smelters is imminent, and lead prices are volatile. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and nickel prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro and geopolitical changes exceeding expectations, Indonesian policy risks, and supply release falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded slightly. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are volatile. Concerns include the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment is volatile, but supply is abundant, and silicon prices are volatile in the short term. Concerns include supply - side production cuts exceeding expectations and photovoltaic installation exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and lithium prices are slightly stronger. Concerns include demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to the cost side. Concerns include the cost of crude oil and overseas propane. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Asphalt**: Entering the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and asphalt futures prices are weak. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expected decline in Asia - Pacific fuel oil supply in November. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Methanol**: There is still port inventory pressure, and olefins have declined. Methanol fluctuates downward. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Urea**: Market sentiment has cooled down. Urea may fluctuate and consolidate at the cost - support level after the decline. Concerns include coal prices. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - environment lacks support, and the fundamentals are under pressure in the medium term. The price elasticity is average. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and China - US trade frictions. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PX**: The "anti - involution" meeting has no conclusion but boosts the market. The downstream demand improvement still drives the upstream. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PTA**: Macro - sentiment boosts the market, and downstream demand improvement supports the lower valuation. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The "anti - involution" disturbance of polyester raw materials has increased the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the market returns to fundamentals. Concerns include the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the quality of peak - season demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee is under great pressure. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction targets. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Propylene**: The propane CP price has been lowered again. PL is weaker than PP in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PP**: Maintenance is stable, and the propane CP price is lowered. PP is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly. Plastic is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Styrene**: Disturbed by macro - events, styrene fluctuates. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Demand support is limited, and caustic soda fluctuates downward. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The trends are differentiated, and palm oil sentiment is weak. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Disturbed by China - Canada relations, rapeseed meal has risen sharply. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, macro - environment, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market has declined again. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe. Concerns include demand, macro - environment, and weather. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and prices are weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The willingness to sell has increased, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials have continued to weaken, and the market has temporarily stabilized at a low level. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Cotton**: The expected benefits have been mostly digested, and the upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened in the short term. Concerns include demand and inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have rebounded, but the upward space is limited. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is generally weak, and futures are difficult to rise significantly. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - priced quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Offset Paper**: Offset paper follows pulp to strengthen. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Logs**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and the market is bottom - fluctuating. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. Short - term judgment is volatile [9].

Gold Market - The gold market shows signs of a potential short-term rebound after a brief decline, with the overall upward trend remaining intact despite short-term disruptions from Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - The resolution of the tariff conflict between the US and China, following a meeting between their leaders, suggests that tariff impacts on the market are no longer a concern [1] - Increased global security risks are anticipated due to Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests, which may lead to a new arms race, thus elevating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential stop to the decline, with support at $3951 and resistance at $4015 [1] Oil Market - The oil market remains weak, with a decline in US crude oil inventories failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, reflecting low market confidence [2] - For the week ending October 24, API crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, and EIA inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China alleviating concerns over demand shrinkage, oil prices did not respond positively, indicating a focus on actual market reactions [2] - Technically, oil prices are under pressure, with resistance at $60.50 despite a small daily gain [2] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a short-term spike due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell but subsequently retreated, maintaining a bearish technical outlook [3] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was accompanied by Powell's hawkish stance, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [3] - The dollar index is facing significant resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential short-term rebound focus [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a steady upward trend, supported by moving averages, although caution is advised regarding potential market peaks [5] - Short-term corrections are likely, with support at 51150 [5] Copper Market - The copper market has seen a slight daily gain, but prices are approaching previous highs, indicating potential resistance [6] - A short-term adjustment is expected, with support at $5.10 [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, although Powell downplayed the likelihood of further cuts in December [7] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, which may lead to increased liquidity in the banking system [8] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting [8]

相关机构表示，关税冲突反复，叠加十五五规划通过在即，不确定性增强的背景下，市场情绪有所 回落。板块轮动加快，投资者行为趋于谨慎。近期煤炭、银行等行业领涨，红利板块继续延续相对强 势。 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连 续9年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央 国企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，自上市以来已经连续分红8个月，感兴趣的投资者或 可持续关注。 注：现金流ETF完全由国泰基金管理有限公司开发，本基金与伦敦证券交易所集团公司及其附属企 业之间没有关联，也并非受其发起、背书、出售或推广。FTSE Russell是特定LSE Group公司的商标名 称之一。LSE Group概不对任何人士使用本基金或基础数据承担任何责任。 分红情况具体详见基金分红公告，基金分红规则以基金法律文件为准，鉴于本基金的特点，本基金 分红不一定来自基金盈利，基金分红并不代表总投资的正回报。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建 议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is gaining attention due to its high dividend value amidst increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" approval, presenting potential investment opportunities in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Market Environment - The macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, leading to cautious investor behavior and a rotation in market sectors, with coal and banking industries showing strong performance [3]. - The new U.S. tariff policies are impacting market sentiment, prompting investors to seek stable assets, highlighting the investment value of coal as a high-dividend cash cow [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply-demand landscape is improving, with domestic supply constraints and seasonal demand increases expected to support price rebounds for both thermal and coking coal [4]. - Policies aimed at reducing overproduction are leading to a contraction in domestic coal supply, while the demand for imported coal is rising due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has surpassed 13.5 billion yuan in scale, with a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, making it an attractive investment option in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [6]. - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, and significant dividend yields, making it a compelling investment choice as the fundamentals reach a turning point [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the mine end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but the potential opening of the export window, it is advisable to wait and see or focus on short - selling opportunities for LME zinc. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and focus on reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic risk in the macro, the tin price has a large downside space. In the medium - to - long term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market conditions are dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this round of tariffs is not higher than that of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival perturbation when LME copper dropped 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiations, and the progress of the South Korean negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream price - fixing quantity and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the downstream price - fixing psychological price has significantly increased. The copper cable and aluminum cable starts have a significant divergence, and attention should be paid to whether the start stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and bars due to the festival effect, and the de - stocking amplitude after the festival is considerable, with the apparent demand rising [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, resulting in a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, domestic TC further decreases, and imported TC further increases. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter has exceeded expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting side has a slight month - on - month recovery [2]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the September peak season. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing, with the visible inventory approaching the lowest level in the past two years [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty has increased [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule in October has a slight month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable [9]. Lead - This week, the lead price oscillates slightly at a high level. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 50,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the tight supply of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate production has increased, and the high smelting profit of primary lead has led to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [11]. - On the demand side, the battery start - up rate has increased this week, but the battery finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started discharging materials [11]. Tin - This week, the tin price oscillates. On the supply side, the ore processing fee is at a low level. Although some scattered orders have tried to raise the quotation, large - scale transactions have not occurred. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was still low, but the recovery in October is highly expected, with an expected maintenance of over 600 metal tons. The export of Indonesia's PT Timah has resumed in mid - to - late September, and the Indonesian president announced that the tin ingot export will return to normal in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery during the solder peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 furnaces in the east. Subsequently, the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease. In the dry season, the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 will be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly. On the raw material side, the ore end continues to support prices, and holders are reluctant to sell due to the significant reduction of previous inventories, resulting in a tight spot market [15]. - On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continue to exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. In October, the de - stocking level is expected to be 8,000 - 10,000 tons. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and supply disturbances in Jiangxi [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the expected increase in domestic demand driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan and renewed tariff conflicts, suggesting a focus on sectors with strong price-driving capabilities and industry self-discipline [6] - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, while float glass prices continue to rise, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The report highlights the resilience of companies like Sanke Tree and the potential for growth in new business areas such as fire safety technology and specialty electronic fabrics [6][7] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The national average cement price is 347 RMB/ton, down 0.7% from the previous week, with price increases observed in Hunan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi [2][24] - The report notes that the average shipment rate for key cement enterprises is 45.2%, indicating a slight increase [24] Float Glass and Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of float glass is 1300.97 RMB/ton, up 0.87% from the previous week, while photovoltaic glass prices remain stable [2] - The report mentions that the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is around 13 RMB/sqm, unchanged from the previous week [2] Real Estate Transactions - In the 42nd week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 211.75 million sqm, down 20% year-on-year but up 107.52% month-on-month [3][19] - The report indicates that second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities also improved month-on-month, with a 14% year-on-year increase in cumulative transaction area [3][19] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, benefiting from cost and scale advantages [6] - The report also highlights the strong performance of Sanke Tree, which achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, up 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 81.2% [6][7] - Fire safety leader Qingniao Fire is recommended due to its upcoming commercialization of fire robots and compliance with new national standards [6][7] - The report suggests investment in China Jushi and China National Materials Technology, which are expected to benefit from high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals, each with its own market situation, influencing factors, and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a buy - on - dips approach; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term; for zinc, suggest waiting and seeing; for nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, expect high - level oscillations; for tin, suggest waiting and seeing in the short - term and holding on dips in the long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations at the cycle bottom; for lithium carbonate, price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances [1][2][4]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai - copper decreased by 30, the spread between waste and refined copper remained unchanged, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 3405 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is expected to be less than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of price - setting and receiving goods is expected to increase, driving inventory reduction. Copper cable and aluminum cable construction are diverging [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Maintain a buy - on - dips approach, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and the inventory of SHFE remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there was seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold on dips in the long - term [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai zinc increased by 10, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. In the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore will be tighter, while overseas ore production increased significantly in the second quarter. In October, smelting capacity recovered slightly. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is decreasing [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window, it is recommended to wait and see. For the domestic - foreign spread, gradually take profits on the long - domestic - short - foreign spread and look for opportunities in the far - month reverse spread. For the inter - month spread, pay attention to the long - December - short - February spread [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 450 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory is stable while the overseas inventory is increasing. The Indonesian parade has subsided, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian ore market [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils decreased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, steel mill production increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron are stable. There was inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Lead - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lead price rose due to macro - factors. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of scrap lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand for batteries may weaken after the National Day. The refined - scrap spread is - 25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 10 [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will oscillate at a high level next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 [14]. Tin - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the tin position decreased by 1121 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the tin price increased due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting capacity has been reduced, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has slightly improved, and the domestic inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, follow the macro - sentiment and wait and see. In the long - term, hold on dips close to the cost line [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis increased by 285, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis changed, with the warehouse receipts increasing by 343 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises are resuming production, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production is stable. There is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be balanced in Q4 [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 100, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1538 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillated. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, and traders are holding back supplies. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The market is still in a stage of over - capacity [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances, and there is strong downward price support before the disturbances [18].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price dropped 4.5% on Friday due to Trump's tariff announcement, closing above $10,300 per ton. The current tariff impact and market panic are estimated to be lower than the Tomb - Sweeping Festival disturbance [1]. - The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of price - fixing and goods receiving is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory depletion [1]. - Maintain a callback - buying strategy for copper, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. However, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars due to the holiday effect [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is strengthening. But the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, leading to a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold at low prices in the long term [1]. Group 3: Zinc - The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week due to the US government shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window [2]. - The domestic TC of zinc is decreasing, and the imported TC is increasing. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore supply increased more than expected in the second quarter [2]. - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are poor, but the export window may open due to export profits. It is recommended to wait and see under the enhanced macro - uncertainty. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of far - month reverse spreads. Also, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is stable in China and increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [4]. - The Indonesian protests have subsided, but there are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore sector, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices [4]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production schedules in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijia and Foshan, with the warehouse receipts remaining stable [9]. - The overall fundamentals are weak. The short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty increases, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. Group 6: Lead - The lead price rose this week due to macro factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October, and the primary lead concentrate is in short supply [13]. - The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day, the demand may weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, ranging from 17,000 to 17,400 [13]. Group 7: Tin - The tin price moved up this week due to macro factors. The domestic processing fee for tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have reduced production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October [16]. - The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the overseas LME inventory is fluctuating at a low level [16]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long term [16]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in Q4 [17]. - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated this week. Overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [17]. - The pre - holiday inventory - building rhythm was strong first and then weak and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and slightly weak, and some discounts have widened by 100 - 200 yuan [17]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, but the amplitude is average [17].

Group 1 - The report highlights the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend assets, which have shown stable performance amid global economic uncertainties and recent tariff conflicts [1][7][19] - As of October 10, 2025, the returns of major indices over the past two years are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 45.85%, Hang Seng Tech at 54.03%, Hang Seng High Dividend at 51.35%, and the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index at 31.15% [8][9][19] - The report indicates that dividend assets have lower volatility and stronger stability compared to other indices during market fluctuations, particularly during the recent tariff shocks [11][19] Group 2 - The trading congestion of Hong Kong SOE dividend assets has increased, yet they remain relatively undervalued, offering high investment value [19][45] - The dividend yield of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index is 6.07%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield by 4.22 percentage points [25][27] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of dividend assets has improved due to declining bond yields, with the yield ratio of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index to the 10-year government bond yield reaching 3.29 as of October 10, 2025 [26][27] Group 3 - As of October 10, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong-listed SOEs is 13.5 trillion HKD, accounting for 17% of the overall market [35][36] - The report details that the H-share SOE PE (TTM) averages are 4.93, with a market-weighted average of 9.38, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the overall Hong Kong market [45][51] - The report also highlights that the dividend yield of Hong Kong SOEs is generally higher than that of A-shares, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [8][9][69]