在一段时间里为黄金和白银价格提供有力支撑的地缘政治紧张态势，如今已暂时有所缓和。以色列与哈 马斯成功达成协议，计划释放所有在加沙被扣押的人质，这一举措被视为朝着结束双方持续两年冲突迈 出的关键一步。 该协议是在多方共同努力下达成的，美国、埃及、卡塔尔以及土耳其积极从中斡旋，地点设在埃及的沙 姆沙伊赫，经过多轮间接谈判后最终敲定。根据协议条款，以色列方面将释放一批巴勒斯坦囚犯，同时 允许向加沙地区输送更多的人道援助物资，并逐步将军队撤回到加沙边境的缓冲区域。这一消息传出 后，市场的避险情绪明显减弱，给金银价格带来了短期的下行压力。 从外部宏观市场环境来看，也不利于贵金属价格走势。美元指数强势攀升，一举涨至九周以来的最高 点；原油价格则出现下滑，跌至每桶62美元附近；与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率稳定保持在4.13% 的水平。这些因素综合作用，进一步加剧了金银价格面临的压力。在当前复杂的市场形势下，投资者需 要密切关注各方动态以及宏观经济数据的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，应对可能出现的市场波动。毕 竟，贵金属市场受多种因素影响，未来走势仍存在较大不确定性。 【交易思路】 摘要周四，由于美元走高，且以色列和哈马斯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-26 【异动品种】 油脂观点：关注贸易政策变化，近⽇油脂波动⻛险加⼤ 逻辑：因市场对美豆出口需求滞后的担忧，周三美豆类震荡偏空，昨日国 内油脂反弹。从宏观环境看，因鲍威尔对进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度，周 三美元走强；原油方面，因上周美国原油库存意外下降，及伊拉克、委内 瑞拉和俄罗斯原油出口受阻，周三原油价格上涨。从产业端看，当前美豆 收获进度基本正常，但近期美豆优良率持续下调，且已低于去年同期水 平；天气预报显示未来2周美豆产区降水偏少，后期美豆单产继续下调的 概率较大。今年以来美国生柴产量和对美豆油的使用量同比减少，而市场 对美国生柴政策和美豆出口需求担忧情绪升温。近日阿根廷农产品出口额 或已达70亿美元，其对大豆及衍生品的出口税政策的影响或告一段落。国 内进口大豆到港量预计将季节性下降，国内豆油库存或将逐步见顶。棕油 方面，MPOA和SPPOMA数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕产量环比-4.26%和-7. 89%，ITS和AmSpec数据分别显示9月1-20日马棕出口环比8.7%和8.3%，如 此马棕9月累库幅度或有限。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-25燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 近期多空分析 利多： 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1. 对俄制裁可能加码 2. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制可能延长 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游原油价格偏弱 每日期货行情 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡燃料油交易商表示，高硫燃料油近期出现部分原料需求，尤其是来自中国的。虽然公共事业 发电需求疲软，但当前高硫燃料油的支撑主要来自船燃市场和炼厂原料需求；另一位新加坡燃料油交易商称， 当前含硫0.5%船用燃油市场的主要问题仍在于库存充足，在当前市场结构下，低硫 ...

宏观：美国 9 月制造业、服务业 PMI 回落 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1133，较上一交易日上涨 15 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1119。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1057，较上一交易日调升 49 个基点。 【重要资讯】1）美国 9 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值为 52，预期 52，8 月终值 53。服务业 PMI 初值为 53.9，综合 PMI 初值为 53.6。2）欧元区 9 月制造业 PMI 初值 49.5，预期为持 平于 50.7；服务业 PMI 初值从 50.5 升至 51.4。德国服务业 PMI 跃升至 52.5，制造业 PMI 则跌至 48.5 的四个月低位。3）英国 9 月制造业 PMI 初值意外放缓至 46.2，创 5 个月新低； 服务业 PMI 初值更是超预期下降至 51.9，拖累综合 PMI 初值跌至 4 个月新低的 51。4）美 联储——①古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息 50 个基点。最终美联储利率可能会稳定在 3%左 右。②鲍曼：预计 2025 年共降息三次。③博斯蒂克：认为当前实际中性利率为 1.25%；未 来某个阶段可能支持将通胀目标区间设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with prices under pressure due to an oversupply and insufficient demand growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The main asphalt futures contract has shown low volatility this week, with a slight stabilization at the beginning but weakening again later in the week [1]. - The national average price of asphalt is reported at 3779.93 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.22 yuan/ton or 0.09% compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite a stable cost side supported by macroeconomic easing and rising oil prices, the supply of asphalt remains abundant while demand growth is not significant [1]. - The operating load rate of asphalt production facilities continues to rise, with September's production expected to reach a yearly high, contributing to a surplus in the market [1]. - Limited demand improvement in northern markets and overall weak demand in southern regions are leading to persistent supply-demand imbalances, which suppress price increases [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The forecast for the national average asphalt price is expected to range between 3750-3780 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend from the current week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]

Oil Price Sector - As of September 16, 2025, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian EPSO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $68.47, $64.52, $63.69, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The month-on-month price changes for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+2.81%), WTI crude (+2.90%), Russian EPSO (+3.02%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] - Year-to-date price changes from the beginning of 2025 to September 16, 2025, show Brent crude (-9.82%), WTI crude (-11.77%), Russian EPSO (-11.48%), and Russian Urals (-4.41%) [2] Oil Inventory Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day respectively, with adjustments from August predictions being +17.80, +9.25, and -17.83 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2025 is +104.61 thousand barrels per day, an increase of +3.07 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [2] Oil Supply Sector - For September 2025, the IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply to be 10,582.51, 10,552.82, and 10,460.46 million barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2024 supply being +267.18, +233.92, and +200.88 million barrels per day [3][4] - The 2026 oil supply predictions are 10,787.62, 10,664.34, and 10,618.42 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of +205.12, +111.53, and +157.96 million barrels per day from 2025 [3] Oil Demand Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast global oil demand for 2025 to be 10,387.45, 10,380.99, and 10,513.52 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +73.68, +89.62, and +129.47 million barrels per day [5] - For Q3 2025, the demand predictions are +93.54, +116.34, and +156.83 million barrels per day, with adjustments from August predictions being +40.99, +12.22, and -0.07 million barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) among others [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefins are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly influenced by supply and demand. This summer's maintenance has been balanced. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. Last week, the production ratios of both decreased, supply contracted, market pressure eased, and the rebound of international crude oil prices also helped polyolefins stop falling. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on crude oil against the increase of OPEC, as well as potential changes in the Fed's interest rate policy. In the short term, focus on the support of downstream stockpiling for raw materials [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7226, 7237, and 7176 respectively, with changes of -3, -4, and 26 and percentage changes of -0.04%, -0.06%, and 0.36%. The trading volumes were 178117, 4302, and 50, and the open interests were 517187, 33638, and 8053 with changes of -790, -638, and 0. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 61, and -50 compared to previous values of -12, 91, and -79 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 6971, and 6854 respectively, with changes of -1, 4, and 33 and percentage changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.48%. The trading volumes were 172820, 6722, and 447, and the open interests were 614906, 52117, and 2319 with changes of 4233, 1211, and -379. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -23, 117, and -94 compared to previous values of -18, 146, and -128 [2] Raw Material & Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2] Information - On Wednesday (September 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $64.08. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.49 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.66 - $67.78 [2]

Supply Side - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points week-on-week to 28.1%, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively low level compared to recent years [1] - Domestic asphalt production in September is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons month-on-month, representing an 11.3% increase, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, or 34.1% [1] Demand Side - The operating rates in most downstream industries for asphalt decreased last week, with road asphalt operating rate dropping by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5%, reaching the lowest level in recent years, constrained by funding and adverse weather conditions in some regions [1] - National shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Inventory - Asphalt refinery inventory decreased compared to last week but is still at the lowest level for the same period in recent years [1] Industry Dynamics - Chevron has been allowed to resume oil extraction in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount for China to purchase asphalt raw materials [1] - This week, Dongming Petrochemical and other facilities plan to switch to asphalt production, with improved weather in the south supporting demand, while heavy rainfall in some northern regions and funding constraints lead to cautious market sentiment [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, gradually lifting the secondary production limit of 1.65 million barrels per day, with recent significant declines in crude oil futures prices weakening cost support for asphalt [1] Market Recommendation - Given the weak supply and demand for asphalt, and the futures price having dropped to the lower end of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to temporarily take profits and exit short positions [1] Futures Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2511 rose by 0.88% to 3,450 yuan/ton, remaining above the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,421 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,457 yuan/ton, while open interest increased by 2,860 to 244,770 contracts [1] - In terms of basis, the mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,530 yuan/ton, while the basis for asphalt contract 11 has dropped to 80 yuan/ton, remaining at a neutral to high level [1]