U.S. stocks traded mixed this morning, with the Dow Jones gaining more than 250 points on Tuesday.Following the market opening Tuesday, the Dow traded up 0.61% to 46,729.44 while the NASDAQ fell 0.28% to 22,808.72. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.08% to 6,710.34.Check This Out: Jim Cramer: This Communication Services Stock Is A Buy, Recommends Holding On To Howmet AerospaceLeading and Lagging SectorsCommunication services shares jumped by 1.4% on Tuesday.In trading on Tuesday, information technology stock ...

10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%。从环比看，10月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增 长0.17%。1—10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，其中，汽车制造业增长16.8%。 2020年汽车工业增加值增6.6%;2021年增速徘徊在5.5%的水平;2022年的汽车增加值6.3%，较强;2023年 汽车业增加值增13%，实现超强增长;2024年的9.1%的汽车增加值相对提升较好;2025年1-10月份的汽车 工业增加值增11.8%，10月汽车工业增加值增16.8%，表现很好。 智通财经APP获悉，11月17日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年1—10月份，全国固定资产投资 (不含农户)408914亿元，同比下降1.7%。2025年汽车投资增速也达到17.5%，近两年汽车投资超预期的 强，处于近年的1-10月历史高位，也远高于其它制造业行业的投资增速。2025年10月汽车生产328台， 同比增11%；新能源汽车生产171万台，同比增19%，渗透率52%；燃油车生产157万台，同比增4%。 2025年1-10月汽车生产2733万台，同比增11%；新能源汽车生产1267万台，同比增28%，渗 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-17） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差137；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存415.75万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线走平；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 利多： 需求尚可，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游需求步入季节性淡季，预期悲观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 强于大市 相关研究报告 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供给、 提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段——"十 五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时隔 一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情形 ——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价数 据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 （2025/09/10） 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/09） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线——房地产行业 2025 年年度策略》（2024/12/13） 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (86 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and exports were lower than market expectations, while the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods slightly exceeded expectations. The year - on - year actual growth of added value of large - scale industries was lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index declined compared with September. Domestic real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in October, and the data in early November also showed the same trend. As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but their effectiveness was not obvious in October's investment data. The physical work volume may be more reflected in the remaining two months of this year and the first quarter of next year. After the China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur at the end of October, the decline in the growth rate of exports to the US in the remaining two months of this year will probably slow down, and exports to the US will recover next year [4][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 0.7% decline. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. Narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [1][5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to October, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year in each quarter, and the decline in October and November expanded. The prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities continued to bottom out. In October, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 21.4% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses decreased by 29% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 28% year - on - year [7][9][10]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In October, the actual year - on - year growth of added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5%. High - tech manufacturing continued to maintain relatively fast growth. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.4%, 0.9 percentage points lower year - on - year [2][11]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In October, China's export amount in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 3.2%. Imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 4.1%. In the first 10 months, the overall export growth rate was 5.3%, exceeding the 5.2% of the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. In the remaining two months of this year, China's exports may have single - digit growth year - on - year [2][12]. 3.5 Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations. By consumption type, commodity retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year. Among the retail sales of commodities of units above the designated size, categories such as gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies had relatively fast year - on - year growth, while categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, construction and decoration materials, and automobiles had year - on - year declines [3][14][15]. 3.6 Service Industry and Unemployment - In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, reaching a new low this year. From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.2 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 122% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters reached 11.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in photovoltaic glass production, driven by strong demand and inventory reduction in the industry [2]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.3%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 gross margin improved to 10.81%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in photovoltaic glass and diversifying into energy-saving building glass and pharmaceutical glass, which is expected to support long-term growth [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 15.68 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 17.8%, and is expected to grow to 20.25 billion yuan by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.75 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 32.97% year-on-year, but a decline of 78.15% is expected in 2024 [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.63 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.14 yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 0.37 yuan in 2025 [5][11]. - The report indicates that the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.43 in 2023, increasing to 47.74 in 2024, and then stabilizing around 17.89 in 2025 [5][11].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 10 日 信贷有望超季节性投放 ——10 月金融数据预测 频率：每月 金融数据预测表 | 科目 | 2025 年 9 月 | 年 10 月（预测） 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 35296 | 10000 | | 社融增速 | 8.7% | 8.6% | | 信贷新增（亿） | 12900 | 3700 | | 信贷增速 | 6.6% | 6.6% | | M2增速 | 8.4% | 8.2% | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 十月，预计人民币贷款新增 3700 亿，贷款增速约 6.6% | 定期报告 | | --- | 相关报告 1.开门红再现——1 月金融数据预 测 2.回归平静的信贷——2 月金融数 据预测 3.居民短贷超季节性多增——3 月 金融数据预测 4.票据融资或创新高——4 月金融 数据预测 5.社融增速或持平上月——5 月金 融数据预测 6.社融或同比多增——6 月金融数 据预测 7.社融增速年内达峰——7 月金融 数据预测 8.社融增速如期调整——8 月金融 数据预测 9.社融增速缓 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, driven by improved food prices and robust service consumption[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, the highest level since March 2024[2] - Food CPI improved with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9%, while fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the first month of increase in 2025[5] - The PPI improvement is driven by the oil-petrochemical and coal-metallurgy sectors, indicating a unique price logic compared to other major industrial countries[5] - Domestic effective investment demand growth is constrained, prolonging the PPI recovery process due to ongoing real estate market adjustments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The upward trend in core CPI and PPI suggests a synchronized improvement, but the underlying inflation logic remains fragile[5] - Domestic consumption and effective investment demand are still weak, influenced by rising household debt during the real estate market's bottoming phase[5] - The necessity to expand domestic demand is emphasized, especially in light of cooling export growth and uncertainties from global supply chain restructuring[5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]