当前，资本市场正经历深刻转折。全球主要经济体集体宽松，美国降息通道开启，中国货币政策也由"稳健"转向"适度宽松"。同时，房地产持续调整、理 财收益下滑，资金加速寻找新出路，资本市场因此获得更多关注。更重要的是，央行通过工具创新和制度安排直接或间接支持资本市场，市场环境与以往 已大不相同。理解这种变化是研判未来金融走势的关键。如下为中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平近日在中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院"2025全球资管中心 评价指数发布暨CLF50秋季会议"上分享的相关内容，有删改，供参考。 过去一年多以来，资本市场外部环境尤其是宏观环境发生了很大变化，与过去五年、十年甚至更长时期相比都出现了深刻改变，我们不能再用静态的眼光 看待当下的资本市场，下面我简要谈三点认识。 01 资本市场流动性环境将持续宽松 过去一年多，全球主要经济体的货币政策方向发生了转变，这并非局部现象，而是主要经济体的普遍选择。欧盟率先较大力度地降息，日本虽然没有明显 动作，但其利率水平长期维持在零附近，已经代表了一种极度宽松的货币环境。 美国的情况更具代表性。2024年以来，美联储已累计下调利率100个基点，此前美国利率水平一度维持在5.25%~5. ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-09 业在亏损边缘挣扎，价格下行空间进一步打开，但也可能倒逼企业减产，影响市场供应节奏。预计此次进 入纯碱需求淡季，市场价格下行表现下，纯碱有望出现减产，从而刺激价格回暖，今日纯碱价格出现回落 表现，但整体价格下跌动能明显衰减，有望后续逐步止跌。操作上建议，纯碱主力短期逢低布局多单，注 意操作风险。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1250 | -5 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1218 | 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home prices showing slight increases in some cities while second-hand home prices continue to decline, indicating ongoing market adjustments [3][10][11]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [5][6]. - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although the growth rate slowed compared to the second quarter [5]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, showed stronger performance with new home prices rising by 0.82% and 0.32% respectively in September [6][8]. - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects in core cities, which is expected to support new home sales [10][11]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [10][11]. - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [10][11]. - The decline in second-hand home prices is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, which experienced a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant disparity between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities, with the latter struggling with inventory issues and price declines [8][10]. - Policies aimed at improving housing quality and easing purchasing restrictions in key cities are being implemented to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [15][16]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the second-hand market due to high inventory levels [15][16].

连平、 刘涛、王运金（ 连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长 ） 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为 "四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分 别是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开 启本轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共 振前景难料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。 四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复 杂交织，有可能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和 挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以 来，部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。 1-8月固 定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月 环比逐月下降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当 前"十四五"规划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规 模启 ...

Real Estate Development Investment - In the first eight months, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [1][10] - Residential investment accounted for 46,382 billion yuan, down 11.9% [1][10] Construction Area and New Starts - The total construction area for real estate development was 643,109 million square meters, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year decline [3][10] - New construction area was 39,801 million square meters, down 19.5%, with residential new starts at 29,304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3% [3][10] Sales of New Commercial Housing - New commercial housing sales area was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7%, with residential sales also decreasing by 4.7% [4][10] - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decline of 7.3%, with residential sales revenue down 7.0% [4][10] Funding Situation for Real Estate Developers - Funding for real estate developers totaled 64,318 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year [7][10] - Domestic loans increased slightly by 0.2% to 10,232 billion yuan, while foreign investment fell by 11.5% to 18 million yuan [7][10] Regional Performance - In the eastern region, new commercial housing sales area was 25,651 million square meters, down 7.1%, and sales revenue was 33,263 billion yuan, down 8.1% [12] - The central region saw a sales area of 15,099 million square meters, down 1.4%, with sales revenue of 10,076 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1% [12]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0%, maintaining stability compared to the previous value of 0%[2] - The combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9%, slightly down from 9.3% in the previous period, indicating a small decline in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue growth was primarily supported by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4%, up from 20.7% previously, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% compared to 62.5% earlier[5] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, representing a 165% increase year-on-year and a nearly 35% increase month-on-month[15] - Non-tax revenue growth declined to 1.5%, significantly lower than the five-year average growth rate of 10.4%[10] Government Debt and Expenditure - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year[20] - The expenditure growth rate for the first account was 3.1%, down from 3.4%, while the monthly year-on-year growth rate was 0.8%, a decrease from 3%[20] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with a growth rate of -5% for the four major infrastructure categories, while social security and education expenditures maintained stable growth rates of 10% and 5.6%, respectively[20] Land Revenue and Market Conditions - Government fund revenue from land sales continued to show seasonal lows, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% from January to August, worsening from -0.7% previously[17] - In August, land transfer revenue was 231.3 billion yuan, down from 267.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.7%[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand indicators[17]

Economic Performance Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development investment, it grew by 4.2% [1][4] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, although the growth rate is declining [4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 2.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.9 percentage points [4][5] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations but is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and housing prices [5] - Recent adjustments in housing policies in some cities have shown positive effects, leading to improved market transactions [5] - The government is focusing on enhancing urban renewal and increasing the supply of high-quality housing to meet demand [5][6] Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6% from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [8] - Key consumer goods categories, such as furniture and home appliances, saw significant sales growth in August, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [8] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [8][9] Trade and Export Performance - In August, the total goods import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [9] - Cumulatively, from January to August, exports rose by 6.9%, while imports fell by 1.2% [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 32.9%, which was a major drag on overall export performance [9] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [9][10] - Factors contributing to the PPI changes include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and the effects of consumption-boosting policies [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

Market Overview - A-share market trading activity has decreased, with a slight decline in transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that incremental capital has not yet formed a consistent expectation in the short term, leading to a wide fluctuation in the market [1][4] - The overall A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with notable sector rotation. Benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and "anti-involution" policies, sectors such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals have seen substantial gains, while previously high-performing sectors like computers and communications have shown weakness [1] Economic Indicators - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year in USD terms, below the expected 5.9% and previous value of 7.2%. Imports grew by 1.3%, also below expectations [1] - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a drop of 33.1% in August, negatively impacting total exports by 5.1 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN exceeded previous values [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In August, China's CPI growth remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease to -0.4%. The PPI growth shifted from a decline to flat, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - Prices of pork and eggs have shown lower-than-seasonal increases, while some food prices continue to decline, affecting non-food items [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate - High-frequency data for August indicates a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate of petroleum asphalt and cement shipments. The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 300 billion yuan for the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, which will support infrastructure growth [3] - In the real estate sector, first-tier city housing prices have declined more than those in second and third-tier cities, with sales of commercial housing in 30 cities in August still needing improvement [3] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in August is expected to moderate. The previous year's "old-for-new" subsidy funds have been gradually distributed, but this year faces a high base environment and increased consumer sensitivity to price changes [3] Global Economic Context - Recent expectations for overseas interest rate cuts have risen, with the US adding only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 75,000 and previous 79,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [4] - Following the employment data release, the dollar index and US bond yields fell, while gold, US stocks, and copper prices surged. Market sentiment has shifted towards recession, with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The seventh batch of land auctions in Shanghai concluded on September 4, 2023, with a total of 5 plots sold, covering an area of 139,900 square meters and generating a total transaction amount of 11.116 billion yuan, indicating a strong demand for quality land in the region [1][8]. Group 1: Auction Results - Three plots were sold at a premium, with the highest premium being 28.09% for the Yangpu District plot, which was won by a consortium led by China Railway Real Estate for a total price of 2.736 billion yuan [2][7]. - The Pudong District plot was sold at a premium of 13%, with Shanghai Urban Construction winning it for 5.240 billion yuan [3][4]. - Two plots were sold at the base price, including a residential and commercial plot in Qingpu District, which was acquired by Yucheng Group for 270 million yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The competitive bidding for the Yangpu District plot reflects high interest from developers, with nine bidders participating, indicating a strong market outlook for high-value land [2][7]. - The presence of new entrants like Yucheng Group and Zhejiang Jinggong in the Shanghai real estate market suggests a growing recognition of the market's potential among non-traditional developers [7]. - The strategic partnerships, such as that between Yucheng Group and technology firm Xinyi Teng, highlight a trend towards integrating technology into real estate development, aiming for innovative project differentiation [7].