1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 "'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南财经大学财政税 务学院教授刘蓉在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更 新等领域，有利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力 一季度经济平稳开局。 延续靠前发力节奏 财政部此前表示，将尽早提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，便于各地做好与2026年预算编制的衔 接，支持重点项目2026年一季度建设资金需求。 "提前下达新增地方政府债务限额为2026年地方债早发行、早使用提供支撑。"刘蓉认为，一方面，有助 于"十五五"开局项目储备衔接，各地提前编制预算、做好项目前期工作，保障一季度项目开工与资金需 求，尽快形成实物工作量。另一方面，明确积极财政导向，有利于稳定市场对投资与资金投放的预期。 根据企业预警通数据，截至1月8日，已有北京、河北、山西等27地披露一季度发债计划，总规模约2万 亿元。 资金投向料进一步扩围 中央经济工作会议提出， ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师吴棋滢预计，2026年财政支出力度将在2025年已经更加积极的基础上小幅增 加。对于狭义目标赤字率，预计中性情形下将维持在4%，对应的中性情形下狭义目标赤字规模为5.9万 亿元，较2025年提升约2400亿元。 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。业内人士表示，2026年的财政政策取向 与2025年保持一致，预计2026年财政将继续保持必要支出强度，赤字规模或接近6万亿元，新增专项债 规模或达5万亿元，同时消费税相关改革可能会加快。 延续必要财政支出强度 2026年赤字规模或接近6万亿元 近日，全国财政工作会议提出，2026年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保 必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地 方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效 能。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒认为，2026年财政形势大概率仍是顶压前行，但财政作为国 家治理的基础和重要支柱的角色意味着财政政策仍要更加积极，以财政支出带动全社会需求扩张，为进 一步扩大内需 ...

延续必要财政支出强度 2026年赤字规模或接近6万亿元 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。业内人士表示，2026年的财政政策取向 与2025年保持一致，预计2026年财政将继续保持必要支出强度，赤字规模或接近6万亿元，新增专项债 规模或达5万亿元，同时消费税相关改革可能会加快。 保持必要债务总规模新增专项债将达5万亿元 债务管理是现代国家治理的重要内容，合理扩张的债务能够充实财政资源，在保证必要财政支出强度 外，还能通过公共投资、消费补贴、社会福利支出等方式加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，增强财政政策 灵活性。 罗志恒表示，近年来，财政收入端制约了财政支出增速的进一步提升，通过提高新增债务额度，能充分 恢复地方政府发展经济的能力，进而推动企业和居民行为从防御走向扩张。他预计，2026年新增债务总 规模将提高到15万亿元。 吴棋滢认为，2026年广义赤字规模将随GDP规模小幅增加而增加，并更注重结构性调整。她预计，2026 年新增地方政府专项债券规模将达到5万亿元，超长期特别国债规模增至1.5万亿元，两者合计较2025年 增加0.6万亿元。"若2026年年中出现经济承压情况，可进一步调整特 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 政府性基金支出当月同比转正 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 11 月财政数据，1-11 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增 长 0.8%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.4%（+2.0%）；1-11 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 4.9%（-2.8%），支出同比增长 13.7%（+15.4%）。 11 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入延续正增，非税收入降幅收窄。11 月税收收入同比增长 2.8%（+8.6%）， 虽增幅有所回落，但已连续 8 个月保持正增长，11 月企业所得税与个人所得税 回落或为当月税收收入增幅放缓的主要原因。11 月证券交易印花税同比增长 2.3%，增幅在 11 月权益市场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下增幅放缓。 在投资于物回报率下降的情况，十五五规划建议提出的坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 总量研究 税收增速回落，基金性收支均回升 ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 作者 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2025 年 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入累计同比增速为+0.8%，前值 为+0.8%；一般公共预算支出累计同比增速为+1.4%，前值为+2.0%。政府性基 金预算收入累计同比增速为-4.9%，前值为-2.8%；政府性基金预算支出累计同 比增速为+13.7%，前值为+15.4%。 核心观点： 11 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，税收增速从高位回落，非税表现边际 好转，而支出端则明显加力，基建与就业相关预算支出改善幅度较大；其二， 地方债务结存限额下达并用于补充地方政府综合财力后，政府性基金收支均改 善；其三，年内新增专项债供给基本收官，有利于稳定基建投资。 一、一般公共预算：税收与非税"跷跷板" 财政收入维持增长。11 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]

Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No specific core view was clearly presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 60.84 billion yuan in Week 37 (9/8 - 9/14) and 31.79 billion yuan in Week 38 (9/15 - 9/21). As of Week 37, the cumulative amount reached 1.11 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 490 billion yuan [1][7]. - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 56.22 billion yuan in Week 37 and 40.56 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative general deficit was 870 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.5%, surpassing the same period last year [1][7]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 41.56 billion yuan in Week 37 and 28.71 billion yuan in Week 38. The total national debt net financing for the year is 666 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 530 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.9%, exceeding the average of the past five years [10]. Local Debt - Local debt net financing was 19.28 billion yuan in Week 37 and 3.09 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 590 billion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 280 billion yuan [12]. - New general debt issuance was 1.47 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.07 billion yuan in Week 38. The local deficit for 2025 is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative new general debt was 63.55 billion yuan, with a progress of 79.4%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. - New special - purpose debt issuance was 13.19 billion yuan in Week 37 and 9.78 billion yuan in Week 38. The planned new special - purpose debt for 2025 is 440 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 340 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special - purpose debt of 118.19 billion yuan has been issued, including 21.4 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special - purpose debt of 33.02 billion yuan has been issued [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bond issuance was 2.62 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.14 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 196 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 1.55 billion yuan in Week 37 and is expected to be - 0.7 billion yuan in Week 38. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 1.02 trillion yuan [3][33].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 69.9%, and 298.6 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds had been issued in August [4][5]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and 47.1 billion yuan of new general bonds had been issued in August [9][24]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 70.4%, and the net financing scale of local government bonds this week was 208.8 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12]. - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 73.2%, and the net financing scale of treasury bonds this week was 352.6 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 138 billion yuan [16][18]. - As of August 24, the net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 72.0% [20]. Detailed Data New Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 239.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]