能源化工日报 2025-11-20 2025/11/20 原油 能源化工组 INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.20 元/桶，涨幅 0.48%，报 464.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 26.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.01%，报 2560.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.21%，报 3266.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 1.11 百万桶至 6.31 百万桶，环比去库 14.96%； 柴油库存累库 0.02 百万桶至 2.85 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；燃料油库存去库 0.25 百万桶至 10.65 百万桶，环比去库 2.33%；总成品油去库 1.35 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶，环比去库 6.37%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 甲醇 2025/11/20 甲醇 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In October, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase. The impact of maintenance of petroleum benzene plants is expected to decline, and the operating load of North China hydrobenzene plants has gradually recovered to a neutral level after the end of production restrictions in early September, with stable operation expected in the future. New plants for downstream styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with the converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene, indicating a medium - to long - term improvement in supply - demand trends. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance cycle, limiting the growth space of pure benzene demand. Recently, international oil prices have fallen and rebounded due to factors such as OPEC's slight increase in production, concerns about economic growth caused by the U.S. government shutdown, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand situation is difficult to improve. Technically, BZ2603 has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD green bar has widened, but the single - day K - line has a long lower shadow. Pay attention to the support near 5682 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5763 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the settlement price is 5732 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. The trading volume is 5189 lots, down 394 lots; the open interest is 12994 lots, up 615 lots. The mainstream price in the East China market is 5860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China market is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 5700 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu is 5825 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the mainstream price in Shanxi is 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 699 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 709.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.38 US dollars/barrel, up 1.05 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 45.7 tons, up 0.16 tons. The port inventory at the end of the week is 10.6 tons, down 0.1 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.24%, down 0.2 percentage points; the caprolactam capacity utilization rate is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the phenol capacity utilization rate is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the aniline capacity utilization rate is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the adipic acid capacity utilization rate is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the pure benzene capacity utilization rate increased by 1.22% to 79.27% week - on - week, and the hydrobenzene capacity utilization rate increased by 4.05% to 63.99% week - on - week. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.24% to 76.37% week - on - week. As of October 9th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.7%. From September 19th to 25th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 419 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of pure benzene is mainly volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, and BZ2605 decreased by 85, 73, and 96 respectively compared to the previous day [1]. - The spreads between some futures contracts changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 decreased by 12, and BZ2604 - BZ2605 increased by 23 [1]. - Paper - cargo prices of N + 1 and N + 2 remained unchanged [1]. - Shandong pure benzene price decreased by 41 to 5802, and the differences between Shandong pure benzene price and加氢苯 price, and Shandong pure benzene price and East China pure benzene price both decreased by 41 [1]. - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 0.1 to 10.6, and styrene inventory in East China ports decreased by 14069 to 114420 [1]. 3.2 News - As of September 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 10.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year increase of 35.90% [2]. - From September 23 to September 28, the estimated arrival was about 3.31 million tons, and the estimated pick - up was about 3.41 million tons [2]. - On September 29, the non - long - term agreement trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 2000 tons, with an average self - pick - up price of 5843 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - East China pure benzene spot negotiation average price decreased by 20, September bottom transaction average price decreased by 15, October bottom transaction average price remained stable, and November bottom transaction average price decreased by 20 [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral view [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed, and macro - disturbances have significantly decreased. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to the real situation. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily rising, the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended but hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is low. Iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [2]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The reference range is 780 - 80 yuan/ton, corresponding to 103 - 105 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, macro - disturbances have weakened. The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations and is defined as a preventive cut, with the expectation of continuous rate cuts weakening. Domestic policies are still in the reserve period. The black - series industrial chain is highly differentiated, with the raw material end generally stronger than the finished product end. The expectation of increasing iron ore supply remains unchanged. Steel mill复产 has driven up hot metal production. Although steel mill profits have fallen to the break - even line, the willingness of steel mills to actively cut production is still insufficient, but pre - holiday restocking is basically over, and the short - term upward driving force has weakened [2]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipments have decreased significantly, and Brazil's shipments have decreased slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the five - week average is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. This period has seen the continuation of steel mill复产 in blast furnaces, mainly due to the regular resumption of production after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang. Domestic demand is higher than the August average (240.5). The daily average hot metal production this period is 242.36 tons (month - on - month increase of 1.34). As steel mill production costs rise and finished product prices weaken, blast furnace profits have declined from a high level and are approaching the break - even level, and the steel mill profitability rate continues to decline. The pre - holiday restocking demand is basically over. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The steel mill inventory level has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to high domestic demand and insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market had a decline on Wednesday and a rise during the night session. The supply of iron ore decreased as the arrival volume declined this period, and the port inventory continued to decrease with no prominent inventory contradiction. The iron ore main contract 2601 is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the previous high of 833 as an important resistance level and 750 as the support level. Short - term operations are recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Wednesday and up during the night session [3]. Important Information - In August, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 211,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% [3]. - The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry expects that the annual shipbuilding completion volume in China will be around 51 million deadweight tons in 2025 [3]. - The Jiangsu Iron and Steel Association believes that it is urgent to rectify the "involution - style" competition [3]. Market Logic - On the 17th, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/ton wet (-11), the price of first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,550 yuan/ton (-60), the price of quasi - first - grade coke was 1,480 yuan/ton (-50), the price of Shanghai rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,420 yuan/ton (-10). The arrival volume of iron ore decreased this period, and the port inventory continued to decrease [3]. Trading Strategy - The iron ore main contract 2601 is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the previous high of 833 as an important resistance level and 750 as the support level. Short - term operations are recommended [3].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The report suggests that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [2]. 2) Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of pure benzene, including futures prices, price spreads, port inventories, and market news. It concludes that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures prices: BZ2603, BZ2604, and paper - based prices (N + 1, N + 2) decreased, while BZ2605 remained unchanged. Price spreads such as BZ2603 - EB2508 and BZ2604 - BZ2605 also changed [1]. - Port inventories: Pure benzene's East - China port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, and styrene's East - China port inventory increased by 6,760 tons to 133,690 tons [1]. - Price differences: The price difference between Shandong pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased by 100, and the difference between Shandong and East - China pure benzene increased by 25 [1]. [News] - As of September 15, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, up 168% YoY. Jiangsu's styrene port inventory decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92% MoM) to 159,000 tons [2]. - On September 15, Shandong's non - long - term pure benzene non - long - association trading volume was about 1,700 tons, with an average price of 6,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. East - China's pure benzene spot and forward prices also increased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is volatile, and it will be weak in the fourth quarter [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In futures prices, BZ2603 was 6073, up 41 from the previous day; BZ2604 was 6055, up 29; BZ2605 was 6072, up 27. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 increasing by 12 to 18 [1] - The paper - cargo prices N + 1 and N + 2 both increased by 60, reaching 6005 and 6015 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price was 6035, up 30 from the previous day. The difference between Shandong pure benzene price and hydrogenated benzene price increased by 30 to 180, while the difference with East China pure benzene price decreased by 30 to 45 [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1 to 13.4, and styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 to 133690 [1] 3.2 News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons (6.94%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.4 tons (168.00%). From September 8 - 14, arrivals were about 1.8 tons and pick - ups were about 2.8 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.9 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons (- 9.92%) from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons (- 10.34%) [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 - 5950 yuan/ton (average 5930, up 20). The September lower transaction price was 5910 - 5960 yuan/ton (average 5935, up 25), the October lower was 5920 - 5970 yuan/ton (average 5945, up 35), and the November lower was 5930 - 5980 yuan/ton (average 5955, up 30) [2]