截至9:43，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议 美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan宣布其印尼Grasberg铜矿遭遇不可抗力，导致这座全球第二大铜矿停产。Freeport发布的初步评估显示，公司已下 调第三季度铜和黄金销售指引，分别较2025年7月的预期降低4%和6%。同时，公司预计2026年的铜和黄金产量可能较此前的估算骤降约35%。 高盛分析师将此事件定性为"黑天鹅"，预计未来12-15个月内造成50万吨的铜供应损失，并断言"铜价必须因此上涨"。受此影响，隔夜LME铜涨超3%！ 招商证券火线点评，印尼自由港生产事故对产量造成具体影响有待观察，但可以肯定的是，供应紧张有增无减。（来源于招商证券20250921《如期降息，从 宽松交易转复苏交易》） 方正证券表示，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg铜矿（占全球供给3%）未复产，另外，卡库拉矿山第二阶段大部分排水工作预计将于2025年11月底完成，艾芬豪矿 业推迟公布卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿2026-2027年产量指引，行业供给扰动增加对价格形成向上支撑。（来源于方正证券20250921《有色金属行业周报：美联储降 息周期开启，金铜长牛可期》） 数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.30 2025-09-01 降息的风继续吹 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： A 股领涨全球，人民币汇率快速升值，美元指数在降息预期的催化中下行，黄金再 度突破 3400 美元。初请失业金人数表明美国就业市场依然具有韧性，但消费者支出 下滑、通胀预期上升意味着滞胀预期未消，多位联储官员继续为 9 月降息吹风。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现： 美国经济： 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 上周（2025.8.25-2025.8.29），全球大类资产价格中，主要经济 体股市涨跌互现。其中，上证指数上涨 0.8%，新兴市场股票指 数下跌 0.6%，日经 225 指数上升 0.2%，发达市场股票指数下跌 0.4%，标普 500 指数下跌 0.1%，恒生指数下跌 1.0%。 大宗商品大多上涨。其中，IPE 布油期货上涨 0.5%，伦敦金现 上涨 2.2%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 0.9%，南华商品指数下跌 0.2%，COMEX 铜上涨 0.9%。 美元与上周表现基本持平，美元指 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares lead global markets, with the rapid appreciation of the RMB and a decline in the US dollar index driven by interest rate cut expectations, while gold surpasses $3,400 [1] Global Major Asset Performance - Last week (August 25-29, 2025), major economic stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 0.6% [6] - Most commodities saw price increases, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up by 0.5% and London gold rising by 2.2% [6] - The US dollar index remained stable, closing up by 0.1% for the week [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly decreased from 4.26% to 4.23% [6] US Economic Overview - The US second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3% year-on-year [6] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased, with July's PCE index rising by 2.60% and core PCE by 2.88% [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000 [6] - Personal disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7% [6] - The consumer confidence index fell to 58.2 in August from 61.7 [6] - Inflation expectations rose, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 4.8% from 4.5% [6] European Economic Overview - The Eurozone consumer confidence index dropped to -15.5 in August from -14.7 [6] - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 from 95.7 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - Multiple Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in September [6] - The US appeals court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal but allowed the government to retain tariff measures [6] - Hopes for a trade agreement between the US and India appear dim, with the US imposing a 50% tariff on India [6] - The Bank of Japan indicated that the current economic environment is more favorable for interest rate hikes compared to April [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium carbonate industry and its supply dynamics, particularly in relation to the impact of government policies and market conditions on lithium supply and pricing trends [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Lithium Supply Dynamics**: - Despite a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, approximately 50% of production capacity is currently unprofitable. However, high-cost projects like the Jiangxi mica mine and Zimbabwe lithium spodumene mine have not ceased operations due to strategic decisions and local government support [1][2]. - The closure of the underground project in Yichun is expected to last over three months, indicating stricter government regulation and potential impacts on lithium supply [1][3]. 2. **Impact of Government Policies**: - The government’s crackdown on illegal approvals and overproduction is likely to affect lithium supply. The most cautious estimate suggests that known shutdown projects could impact global lithium salt supply by about 7% in 2025 [1][5]. - In a neutral scenario, if the government aims to regulate the industry, potential production impacts could reach 10%-13%, indicating a possible supply-demand reversal in the coming years [1][5]. 3. **Market Reactions and Economic Indicators**: - The market is highly sensitive to U.S. government policies, particularly regarding tariffs, which can lead to volatility in gold prices and reflect a high-risk environment [7]. - Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest a likelihood of interest rate cuts, which could stimulate investment in the renewable energy sector and increase demand for lithium carbonate [8][9]. 4. **Future Trends in the Lithium Industry**: - The lithium industry is expected to face challenges due to long resource development cycles and high-cost projects struggling to maintain profitability. However, with increasing demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, the long-term outlook remains positive [4][6]. - The potential for a supply shortage exists if the government enforces restrictions on low-cost projects, which could lead to a significant impact on domestic lithium production [5]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Companies with stable valuations, such as Zhongmin Resources, are recommended due to their growth in copper and minor metals, which could support overall market value [6]. - Investors are advised to monitor leading companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, especially if positive signals emerge from the demand side [6]. Other Important Insights - The historical context of the Federal Reserve's actions indicates that rate cuts typically lead to increases in precious metal prices, which could indirectly benefit the lithium sector [9]. - The current market environment suggests that while short-term price reversals may be challenging, a combination of supply changes and policy support could stabilize prices in the medium term [6][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market's major indices rose this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market attention shifted to corporate semi - annual reports after the Politburo meeting, and the net profit growth of reported companies increased. Trading activity declined compared to last week [8]. - The bond market entered a repair phase. Although the central bank continued net withdrawals in the open - market operations, the bond market stabilized. The potential VAT levy on treasury bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds [8]. - The commodity market faced a retracement risk. Although the Sino - US tariff truce was extended and trade relations improved marginally, domestic fundamentals remained weak [8]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar was under pressure due to the dovish signals from the Fed and weak economic data, while the euro was boosted by the weakening dollar in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The CSI 300 rose 1.23%, and CSI 300 stock index futures rose 1.27%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with IM>IC>IF>IH in terms of gains. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.15% with a weekly change of - 0.09BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.18%. The suggestion is to buy on dips [8]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.86%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.10%. Due to weak fundamentals, there is a risk of retracement. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.65%, and the euro - US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.70%. The suggestion is to observe cautiously [8]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council plans to gradually implement free pre - school education. Several departments issued policies on finance and foreign exchange remittance [16]. - **International**: The US - EU trade tension eased as the EU postponed tariff counter - measures. Trump signed executive orders to impose tariffs on multiple countries, and there were speculations about a new Fed chair [18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In July, exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% in US dollars, both better than expected [13]. - **US**: The factory orders in June decreased by 4.8%, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 increased to 226,000 [19]. - **EU**: The eurozone's June PPI increased by 0.8%, and retail sales increased by 0.3% [19]. - **UK**: The central bank interest rate remained at 4% [19]. - **Germany**: The industrial output in June decreased by 1.9%, and the trade surplus was 14.9 billion euros [19]. - **France**: The industrial output in June increased by 3.8%, and the trade deficit was 7.623 billion euros [19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic data to be released next week include the UK's July unemployment rate, the US's July CPI, Germany's July CPI, and China's July social consumer goods retail sales [81].

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade in overseas markets, driven by the successful implementation of the "Beautiful Act" and lower-than-expected inflation data, which has alleviated market concerns about economic slowdown and interest rate hikes [2][6] - The article highlights that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has caused temporary market disturbances, but the overall market reaction to tariff adjustments has been relatively muted, with the S&P 500 experiencing only a slight decline [21][2] - The article notes that the domestic market is witnessing a mild economic recovery, with consumer policies effectively stimulating demand, as evidenced by a significant increase in retail sales growth in May [3][29] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the focus for July will be on potential inflation risks in overseas markets and the "anti-involution" policies in the domestic market, with evidence suggesting that inflation in the U.S. may begin to rise due to various factors [55][62] - It mentions that the domestic economy is seeing a shift towards service sector recovery, with increased investment and consumption in services, while export pressures may be building [62][39] - The article outlines the government's focus on addressing "involution" through supply-demand adjustments and structural upgrades, indicating a broader scope for policy implementation [69][49]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade in overseas markets, driven by the successful implementation of the "Beautiful Act" and favorable economic indicators such as lower-than-expected inflation and resilient employment data [2][6][21] - The article highlights that the domestic market is experiencing a mild economic recovery, with consumer policies effectively stimulating demand, as evidenced by a significant increase in retail sales growth in May [3][29] - The article notes that the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a faster recovery in domestic orders compared to new export orders [3][29] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation risks in the U.S. as the focus shifts to potential price increases following the recent rise in retail prices and manufacturing price indices [4][55] - It discusses the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China, which aim to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and promote structural upgrades in industries [4][69] - The article mentions that the financial market sentiment has been positively influenced by policies promoting financial openness and the lack of further tariff increases on China during recent U.S.-China trade negotiations [3][49]

Market Overview - On July 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.02%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.43%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.66%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.21%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.12% [4]. - The best-performing industries on July 7 were comprehensive (+2.57%), utilities (+1.87%), real estate (+1.68%), light industry manufacturing (+1.52%), and environmental protection (+1.1%). The worst-performing industries included coal (-2.04%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.97%), telecommunications (-0.77%), home appliances (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.67%) [4]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 7 was 1,227.1 billion yuan, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 12.067 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. Key Insights Light Industry Manufacturing - The report emphasizes a trend in consumer growth industries, advocating for a balanced investment in value stocks [5]. - The market outlook indicates that the first half of 2025 saw insufficient national subsidies and weak overall consumption, leading to a structural growth in "new" consumption [5]. - The underlying logic of "new" consumption is attributed to generational shifts and changes in consumer attitudes during the economic transition period. Despite full pricing, mid-term performance growth is expected to digest valuations, making the second half of the year a clear investment focus for the sector [5]. - Key drivers include the sustained prosperity of new consumption and the performance turning point for traditional consumption [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on growth in consumer experience and prioritizing quality manufacturing stocks that have solidified their bottom lines [5]. Strategy Insights - The report projects that in Q3 2025, the domestic equity market may be dominated by local factors, suggesting banks as a stable investment while recommending balanced allocations in brokerage, military industry, and TMT sectors [6]. - The report notes a potential slowdown in the global trend of "de-dollarization" and emphasizes the need for rebalancing in dollar asset allocations. It suggests that U.S. stocks may show resilience beyond expectations, although caution is advised regarding potential inflationary pressures [6]. - Key factors to monitor include the expiration of the 90-day tariff exemption on China by the U.S. in mid-August and the earnings reports of U.S. stocks for Q2 2025 [7]. - The report highlights that the current dollar is likely entering a prolonged downtrend, with U.S. Treasury rates expected to remain high and volatile in Q3 2025 [7].