芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：国庆假期，海外市场由美国政府停摆和日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁两大事件主导。联邦政府停摆期间，避险情绪升温，同时非农就业等重要 经济数据暂停发布，市场交易"没消息就是没消息"，对美联储"盲降利率"的预期升温，叠加高市早苗胜选带来的日本"宽财政+宽货币"预期，共同带动黄 金和比特币续创历史新高。向前看，全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软 着陆走向温和过热的概率加大。就市场策略而言，短期美股风险偏好料因政府关门的持续走弱，中期在右翼+财政和货币双宽松带来的地缘风险+经济过 热+法定货币信用走弱的宏观环境组合下，大类资产表现预计金>铜>股。 大类资产：比特币与黄金再创历史新高，美股连续上涨，全球股市普涨，表现为典型的"宽财政+宽货币"交易。国庆假期前后（9月29日至10月6日），全 球大类资产的表现体现为典型的"宽财政+宽货币"组合交易：比特币与黄金为首的大宗商品领涨，全球股市普涨，美债利率震荡，美元指数上涨、欧元与 日元下跌。其中，美国政府陷入停摆并引致美国重 ...

华尔街的警告：美国经济"过热"狂飙，散户何去何从？ 七点半的唐人街，空气中弥漫着油条的香气，却掩盖不住老胡眉头紧锁的忧虑。隔壁桌的老胡正唉声叹 气，抱怨着股票又跌了。电视屏幕上，高盛、瑞银、花旗三大投行赫然在列，集体发出警告：美国经济 已进入"过热"状态，犹如一口即将烧穿的铁锅。这消息一出，不仅老胡，就连隔壁刚入股市的小王也感 到不安。 瑞银将目光投向小盘股，认为在当前的市场环境下，小盘股更有可能跑赢大盘，且估值较低，有上涨空 间。花旗则建议关注铜期权，认为美国原油消耗量的增加将带动全球石油需求上涨2-3%，从而推高油 价。甚至连墨西哥比索也被点名，理由是既能赚取利息，又能分享美国经济发展的红利。华尔街的"聪 明人"早已为自己找到了出路，留给普通投资者的，却可能是一地鸡毛。 老一辈股民还记得，十多年前炒股买基金，靠的是信息和时间。谁能坚持到最后，谁就能成为赢家。散 户们守在家中，翻看报纸，收听广播，坚信只要有足够的耐心，市场总会给予回报。那时没有这么多复 杂的金融衍生品、杠杆和套利，买卖全凭良心，盈亏都认命。而现在，金融产品如同"套餐"般捆绑销 售，手续费名目繁多，割韭菜的套路明目张胆。 此前还谨慎预测经济可 ...

华尔街的顶级投行们正在悄然调整航向，并非依旧沉浸在对经济放缓的预期中，而是开始积极备战一种截然不同的局面：美国经 济可能不会如市场先前普遍预期的那样逐步降温，反而会重新加速。 小盘股机会： 瑞银的历史数据显示，在经济扩张阶段，无论是经济衰退之后还是中周期放缓之后，小盘股通常表现优于大盘。 在中周期放缓后的12个月内，小盘股的超额收益率平均为8%，而在经济衰退后则能达到20%。瑞银还发现，小盘股当前预期较 低，资金流入有限，这为小盘股提供了可观的向上空间。 达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛格近日的表态，为这一转变提供了注脚。她警告称，鉴于通胀水平仍然高于目标，且劳动力市 场仅呈现出温和的松弛迹象，美联储在考虑进一步降息时应保持高度警惕。"持续高企的通胀、韧性十足的市场需求，以及劳动 力市场闲置程度有限"这三重因素叠加，暗示当前的货币政策可能仅仅处于"温和限制性"状态，远未达到抑制经济过热的程度。 美联储内部对是否降息的争论，恰恰反映了政策制定者们在这一问题上的犹豫不决。 与此同时，华尔街已经敏锐地捕捉到了经济"重新加速"的风险，并开始积极布局应对。高盛、瑞银和花旗三大投行在近期发布的 研报中不约而同地指出，这种风 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by a quarter point, with expectations for another quarter point cut later this year and possibly next year, which is seen as beneficial for the markets [1][2] - Strong employment numbers and accelerating GDP growth indicate a robust economy, but there are concerns about overheating due to loose monetary policy [2][3] - The UK market has seen a 25% increase this year, highlighting a positive sentiment in international markets [3] Group 2 - Current market valuations are not cheap, and there is a significant amount of cash on the sidelines that may now enter the stock market due to lower interest rates [4] - There is a risk of price instability as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain price stability, raising questions about the appropriateness of the recent rate cuts [5][6] - Economic conditions are stronger than expected for a rate cut, suggesting that the Fed may have acted too quickly in its decision [6]

Group 1 - UBS analysts indicate that the market has begun to price in a 12% probability of economic overheating, which is on the rise [1] - This trend may drive cyclical stocks higher and expand market breadth across various sectors [1] - The sectors most sensitive to the "overheating probability" include automotive and parts, durable goods and apparel, and diversified financials [1] Group 2 - The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 currently include software, media and entertainment, semiconductors, and equipment and banks, while household and personal care, chemicals, and packaging are underperforming [1] - The ranking of these sectors is based on the "R.E.V.S. scoring system," which considers economic cycles, corporate earnings, valuation levels, and market sentiment [1] - 26 out of 27 sectors show positive scores, indicating a signal of market breadth expansion and potential for lagging sectors to catch up [1] Group 3 - By 2026, the earnings gap between the "six tech giants" (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta) and other S&P 500 constituents is expected to normalize, reducing overall market earnings disparity [2] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is currently above 22, while excluding the "tech+" sector, the valuation is at 18.6, which is considered overvalued [2] - Factors such as stock buybacks and stable inflows from global pension savings plans are supporting current valuations despite concerns [2] Group 4 - The "thematic heat map" from UBS shows that the market crowding around the "seven giants" and AI-related investment themes is at a high level, yet remains reasonable due to their resilience in earnings expectations [3] - The highest-scoring stocks in the "R.E.V.S. scoring system" include Hasbro, Dayforce, Qualys, Steris, and MongoDB [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive momentum in the Azerbaijani banking sector, driven by a decrease in the proportion of dollar loans and a reduction in non-performing asset risks since 2017 [1] - Retail loans have experienced rapid growth since 2021, despite measures taken by the central bank to limit credit risks, indicating ongoing concerns about economic overheating [1] - As of July 1, 2025, the total loan amount for the 22 banks operating in Azerbaijan is projected to reach 28.47 billion manats (approximately 1.675 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12%, with 14.6% (approximately 2.44 billion USD) of these loans being in foreign currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Mahrouf, expressed concerns that Ireland's budget plan may lead to economic overheating [1] Group 1 - Mahrouf highlighted that the proposed budget could stimulate excessive economic growth, potentially destabilizing the economy [1] - The comments suggest a need for careful monitoring of fiscal policies to avoid inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may adopt a "wait-and-see" approach in future decision-making, indicating a cautious stance in monetary policy [1] Group 1: ECB's Strategy - ECB board member Makhlouf suggests that the central bank is considering a more cautious approach in its future decisions [1] - The potential for a "wait-and-see" strategy reflects the current economic uncertainties facing the Eurozone [1] Group 2: Economic Risks - There are concerns regarding Ireland's budget plan, which may pose risks of overheating the economy [1] - The implications of an overheated economy could lead to inflationary pressures and affect overall economic stability in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Hassett, stated that the economy is not overheating when viewed through the lens of GDP [1] Group 1 - Hassett emphasized that current GDP figures indicate stable economic conditions rather than excessive growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that the U.S. economy is not overheating when viewed through the lens of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy's performance, as indicated by GDP, suggests stability rather than overheating [1]