"奶粉一哥"飞鹤（6186.HK）中期业绩承压。 2025年上半年，飞鹤预计营收91亿元至93亿元，较上年同期的101亿元下降约10亿元。 净利润约10亿元至12亿元，较比去年同期的19.1亿元，降幅37.2%至47.6%之间。 市场对此反应激烈，飞鹤今日开盘大跌近15%，盘中最低跌至4.65港元、跌幅超过18%。 飞鹤将业绩下滑的主因，归结于4月初启动的生育补贴计划。 2024年，受益于"龙宝宝"效应带动的生育小高峰，飞鹤一度逆转连续两年的营收跌势，营收重返200亿 元上方。 该计划投入12亿元专项资金，以赠送奶粉的形式，对全国范围内符合条件的孕期家庭提供不少于1500元 的生育补贴，预计实施周期约为一年。 孕期满26周以上的孕妇，在完成审核后，可分多次申领一罐孕妇奶粉以及5罐高端奶粉"星飞帆卓睿"。 6月，飞鹤进一步推出"鹤礼新客2.0"活动，将补贴范围扩展至宝宝月龄12个月以内、且未购买过飞鹤婴 幼儿配方奶粉的家庭。 由于补贴产品仅能由厂家直邮消费者，相关政策客观上削弱了传统销售渠道的业绩贡献。 此外部分补贴产品未达终端消费，而经由二手平台流入市场，进一步冲击价格体系。 飞鹤表示为了保障终端货架产品的新 ...

Core Insights - China's consumption growth is significantly lagging behind its large population and economic growth, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this consumption shortfall [1][2][4] Group 1: Current State of Consumption in China - The definition and measurement of consumption shortfall are established, with China's resident consumption rate at 37.2% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 53.8% [2][3] - The final consumption rate for China in 2023 is reported at 55.64%, which is still below the approximately 80% seen in developed countries [3] - A notable slowdown in consumption growth is observed, with a projected 3.5% increase in retail sales for 2024, contrasting sharply with historical growth rates that often exceeded 8% [2][4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Consumption Shortfall - Low consumption propensity is identified as a core issue, with China's consumption propensity at 62% in 2022, compared to an average of 92.3% across 38 countries [6][8] - High housing prices contribute to consumer debt, with urban residents' real estate debt reaching 137.9% of household income, limiting their consumption capacity [9] - Income inequality is highlighted, with the top income group accounting for 46% of total income, leading to lower overall consumption rates [10] - An inadequate social security system is noted as a fundamental cause of low consumption, with high contribution rates and limited coverage increasing financial burdens on households [11] - Traditional consumption culture emphasizes saving over spending, which continues to influence consumer behavior [12] Group 3: Consumption Differences Across Demographics and Regions - Significant consumption behavior differences exist among income groups, with middle-income households contributing nearly 50% of total consumption [13] - Generational differences in consumption attitudes are emerging, particularly among the Z generation, who exhibit distinct purchasing behaviors [17][18] - Regional consumption disparities are noted, with consumption in central regions expanding while eastern and western regions show a trend towards balance [19] Group 4: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's service consumption accounts for approximately 46% of total spending, lower than that of the US (68.5%) and Japan (57.7%), indicating room for structural improvement [20][21] - Successful international experiences in enhancing consumption rates suggest that comprehensive policies are needed to boost service consumption and overall consumer confidence [22] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - Predictions indicate that by 2030, service consumption levels in China could exceed 20,000 yuan, positioning it as a key growth driver [25][27] - The expansion of the middle-income group, projected to surpass 50% of the population by 2030, is expected to significantly enhance consumption potential [27]

一个老龄化社会，需要智能机器人的介入 优衣库的日本东京门店里，藏着中国出口结构的变迁。 7月1日，第一财经记者随机走进了优衣库位于东京的一家门店，这里售卖成百上千类服饰如衬衫、长裤等。中国曾是优衣库最主要的生产制造地，而现场衣 服的标签显示柬埔寨、孟加拉等国在优衣库的产业链上占据越来越重要的位置。 这种转变伴随着中国出口结构的升级，更具技术含量的耳机、手机甚至机器人进入日本工厂和家庭。一个老龄化社会，需要灵活的机器人。在亚马逊的千叶 港运营中心，机器人数量已经超过员工数量。 从服饰到机器人 优衣库的东京门店人头攒动，既有日本本土顾客，也有海外面孔。 得益于日本销售的强劲，优衣库的运营方迅销集团2025上半财年的业绩刷至新高。优衣库的衬衫、短裤等，之前主要是在中国生产，再转运到日本线下门 店，或者在亚马逊等线上平台进行销售。 现在，情况发生了变化。 记者随机查看了部分衣服的标签。这些衬衫、长裤十之七八并非产自中国。东南亚诸国明显已经对中国制造的服饰产生替代作用，这些衣物更多来自越南、 孟加拉国以及柬埔寨等地。 记者看到，一款价约200人民币的衬衫，中国制造的产品旁边摆放着孟加拉国制造的产品。纺织服装是相对容易转 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 新品迭代持续供能，管理赋能中长期增长 今年以来，各食品饮料公司在新品/新渠道上的突破持续受到较高关注度。横向对比看，新乳业推新能力突 出，有望拉动业绩增长提速，带来新增量。1）激励考核层面，新品贡献率为公司考核的核心指标之一，当年 推出的新品收入占公司整体10%以上的目标可驱动公司整体持续推新，并通过新品迭代获取收入增量，如重点 单品活润即通过升级迭代（1.0大果粒/2.0轻食杯/3.0轻食瓶），保持较高收入增速。2）创新机制层面，自上而 下和自下而上相结合的方式为公司提供充分的创新环境，公司总部每年年底会确定后续新品方向，在部分子公 司进行试点，根据成效逐步推往全国。子公司可结合当地情况，自行申报新品。新品也为新渠道的切入提供抓 手，如近期朝日唯品在山姆导入的新品芭乐酸奶终端动销表现良好，已成为又一款爆品单品。 产品结构优化+成本红利提升盈利水平 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权 ...

Core Insights - The logistics operation in China has shown overall stability and significant structural upgrades in the first five months of the year, with a total social logistics volume reaching 138.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - In May, the logistics volume grew by 5.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a narrowing fluctuation [1] - Industrial sectors such as automotive manufacturing and computer communications experienced logistics demand growth exceeding 10%, driven by industrial upgrades and policy support [1] Logistics Demand - The logistics demand for units and residential goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year from January to May, improving by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous four months [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate for logistics demand reached 8.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from April [1] - E-commerce promotions and national subsidy policies have stimulated related consumer logistics demand, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May [1] Import Logistics - The total import logistics volume from January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with a more pronounced decrease of 3.8% in May compared to April [1] - Specific categories such as iron ore, coal, and steel saw significant declines in import logistics volume, with decreases of 5.2%, 7.9%, and 16.1% respectively [1] - Conversely, the import logistics volume for machine tools and integrated circuits maintained growth, with year-on-year increases of 25.1% and 8.4%, indicating a shift towards high-value-added industrial products [1] Green and Renewable Resource Logistics - The logistics for green and renewable resources has shown collaborative development, with the logistics demand in the new energy industry chain improving [1] - From January to May, the total logistics volume for renewable resources grew by 16.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 13.3% in May [1] - The logistics volume related to new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications experienced a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 30% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing differentiation in the Chinese liquor market, with a rising concentration of the top six companies (CR6) and a notable resilience among leading enterprises, despite overall declines in operational indicators and rising costs [1] - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by "stock competition + structural upgrades," presenting both challenges and opportunities. Companies need to enhance supply-side quality and efficiency while accurately reaching demand-side targets to reshape growth logic [1] - Current demand for white liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risks. A relatively loose policy environment is expected to support a gradual recovery in consumption, with short-term rigid demand and potential improvements in banquet demand due to low base effects [1] Group 2 - In the broader consumer goods sector, there is a rising interest in yellow wine, while beer consumption is entering a peak season. The raw milk prices in the dairy industry have stabilized, and segments like snacks and energy drinks are experiencing high growth [2] - The food and beverage sector shows a strong willingness to distribute dividends, with expectations for an overall increase in dividend rates led by benchmark companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [2] - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy, and seasoning products, providing a convenient investment tool for small capital investors [2]

Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 20.32 trillion yuan in the first five months of this year, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] - In May, the retail sales amounted to 4.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest monthly growth rate since last year [1] - The growth in retail sales is attributed to the successful implementation of policies such as the "old-for-new" program, which has significantly boosted sales in categories like home appliances and mobile phones [1][2] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year in May, with a notable acceleration of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Categories such as furniture, home appliances, and communication devices saw year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 53%, and 33% respectively, significantly outpacing the overall retail sales growth [1] - The retail sales of sports and entertainment products showed a year-on-year growth rate of 28.3% in May, continuing a double-digit growth trend since the beginning of the year [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "May Day" and "Dragon Boat" holidays significantly boosted cultural tourism consumption, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips during the May Day holiday, a 6.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The total expenditure of tourists during the May Day holiday was 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2] - The retail sales of services increased by 5.2% year-on-year in the first five months, slightly higher than the growth rate of goods retail sales [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Online Retail - Online retail sales grew by 8.5% year-on-year in the first five months, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 6.3%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [3] - The early launch of e-commerce shopping festivals contributed to the growth of online consumption in May [3] Group 4: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy has led to a significant increase in inbound tourism and consumption, with departure tax refund transactions increasing by 116% in the first month of the policy implementation [3] - The retail sales of physical stores increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first five months, with warehouse membership stores seeing growth rates exceeding 30% [4] - The positive consumption trend in May is supported by continuous upgrades in consumption structure and effective policy implementations [4]

回复：欧美对中国钢铁行业实行反倾销政策已持续 10 余年，导致中 国钢材产品对美国出口量占出口总量比例较低，2024 年仅为 0.8%，公司 没有产品出口到美国，加之公司产品优先满足国内需求，海外营业收入 占比仅 7%左右，海外贸易政策变化对公司影响有限。今年一季度，公司 出口继续保持稳定，出口产品均为高附加值的品种钢。同时，公司也会 密切关注海外贸易政策，动态研判市场变化，制定采购、销售、库存及 生产策略，并根据海外贸易政策及市场需求变化，适时调整出口策略。 证券代码：000932 证券简称：华菱钢铁 湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-6 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 动类别 | □新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | 现场参观  电话会议 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 华泰资管曹青宇，嘉实基金刘宸垚，兴证金属陈权 | | 及人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 6 18 | | 地点 | 会议室 602 | | 接待人员姓名 ...

当前主要酒企渠道库存已降至合理水平，随着政策不断发力和消费场景改善，白酒需求温和恢复。券商 机构普遍认为，白酒板块估值已处历史低位，长期看品牌力、文化底蕴及渠道韧性仍是核心竞争力。 大众品方面，黄酒消费热度渐起，啤酒消费进入旺季，乳业上游供给端原奶价格企稳，休闲零食、能量 饮料等细分赛道景气度高增。且食品饮料公司分红意愿较强，预计行业整体分红率在茅台、五粮液 （000858）等标杆公司的带领下仍可进一步提升。 食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A 类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 2025四川国际美酒博览会上，中国酒业协会副秘书长刘振国发布《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》， 解读称目前白酒市场分化加剧，白酒行业集中度CR6持续提升，头部企业韧性凸显，但行业整体经营指 标量价齐跌，费用上升。 有分析指出，白酒行业正处于"存量竞争+结构升级"的深 ...

报告指出，中国正通过政策引导、场景开放和要素重构，创造从传统产业向新兴领域跃迁的"超级接 口"，跨国公司可把握中国产业结构升级的窗口期，围绕新兴和未来产业加速布局，在产业赛道转换中 实现"换道超车"与"存量焕新"目标，形成与中国经济高质量发展的深度共振。同时，跨国公司可利用中 国完整的工业体系、丰富的应用场景以及规模化的工程师红利，构建"本土化创新+产供链协同"的新型 合作范式，提高在全球价值链中的地位与竞争力。 报告指出，中国正以全国统一大市场建设与区域协同战略为引领，推动区域发展格局从"梯度推 进"向"多极联动"升级，跨国公司可深度融入中国区域战略，依托开放平台撬动制度型开放红利，将本 土化优势转化为全球化动能，以"本土中国+海外中国"模式，在深耕中国本土市场的基础上，与中国战 略伙伴企业加强出海合作，共同开展海外项目建设，优化配置全球资源，拓展新的业务领域和市场空 间，实现业务多元化和全球化布局。 6月19日，商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院在第六届跨国公司领导人青岛峰会上发布报告《跨国公司在 中国：投资未来共赢发展再起航》。报告就跨国公司在中国经济中发挥的重要作用、面临的机遇和挑战 等内容进行了系统总结。 ...