有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅 区间整理 2025年11月18日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 工业硅 | | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：石油焦价格略有上涨，硅石、电极价格持稳；随 |  | 供给端：上周周产26,800吨，环比下滑。11月排产来看，川 | | | 着西南产区步入平枯水期，电力成本显著抬升。 | | 滇地区厂家有检修减产安排，内蒙古地区则有部分增量， | |  | 供给端：四川地区进入平水期，电价上调，云南地区进入枯水 | | 增减相抵后，预计11月产量降至12万吨左右。 | | | 期，两地厂家因成本增加且工业硅价格暂无明显向上驱动，停 |  | 需求端：上半年终端装机抢装透支部分下半年需求，国内 | | | 产范围进一步扩大，产量持续下滑；西北地区上周开工也略有 | | 招投标项目减少，加之海外需求退坡，组件端压力较大， | | | 下滑，产量减少；其他地区开工暂无明显变动。供给端整体呈 | | 成本抬升下组件价格有调涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly, with a predicted reduction of 80 yuan per ton, marking the eighth price cut this year [1]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 13, the retail price of refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustments, with the current forecast indicating a drop exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1]. - In 2023, there have been 19 rounds of price adjustments for domestic refined oil, including 6 increases, 6 instances of no change, and 7 decreases [1]. - The average decrease in gasoline and diesel prices compared to the end of last year is 405 yuan per ton and 390 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. International Oil Price Trends - On October 10, WTI crude oil futures fell by 5.32%, reaching the lowest point since May [3]. - The domestic crude oil futures also saw a decline, with the main contract dropping by 4.55%, nearing the May low [3]. - The recent significant drop in international oil prices suggests that there may still be room for further declines [5][6]. Market Analysis - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures and Zhonghui Futures indicate that the combination of ample supply, weakening demand, and reduced geopolitical risks may lead to further declines in oil prices in the coming week [6]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on oil prices is highlighted as a significant factor, with expectations of continued downward pressure [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides investment ratings for various non - ferrous metals and related products, with most being rated as "震荡" (sideways movement), some as "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a weak bias). The specific ratings are as follows: - Copper: Sideways [7] - Alumina: Sideways [7] - Aluminum: Sideways [9] - Aluminum Alloy: Sideways [10] - Zinc: Sideways with a weak bias [12] - Lead: Sideways [13] - Nickel: Sideways in the short - term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long - term [20] - Stainless Steel: Sideways in the short - term [21] - Tin: Sideways [22] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand needs to be emphasized. In the short - to - medium - term, the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on the prices of base metals. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies. In the long - term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and there are still supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin, so the supply - demand is expected to tighten, which supports the prices of base metals [1] - Individual metals: - Copper: Overseas recession risk rises, and copper prices are under pressure [2][6] - Alumina: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and alumina is under sideways pressure [2][7] - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption, and aluminum prices continue to rise [2][8] - Aluminum Alloy: Strong cost support, and the price is in high - level sideways movement [2][9] - Zinc: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are in high - level sideways movement [2][11] - Lead: Cost still provides support, and lead prices move sideways [2][12] - Nickel: Market sentiment fluctuates, and nickel prices move in a wide range [2][14] - Stainless Steel: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price moves up [2][21] - Tin: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are in high - level sideways movement [2][22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate. In July, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased significantly. As of August 11, copper inventory decreased slightly. The US July non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations [6] - Main Logic: Macroeconomic factors show that overseas recession risk rises, and copper prices are under pressure. The supply of copper raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts increases. The downstream replenishment willingness weakens, and the upward momentum of copper prices weakens. Investors are becoming more cautious as the expiration date of the reciprocal tariff approaches [7] - Outlook: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventory is still at a low level. However, demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to show a sideways pattern [7] Alumina - Information: On August 11, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the winning price decreased in the low - price range. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7] - Main Logic: In the short - term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. Fundamentally, smelters have sufficient low - cost ores, and the operating capacity has recovered to a high level. The supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, inventory is accumulating, and the spot price is slightly weakening [7] - Outlook: In the short - term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range sideways movement. Try shorting on rallies based on warehouse receipt changes, and gradually close out the 9 - 1 reverse spread [8] Aluminum - Information: On August 11, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly. The inventory of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The US imposed new tariffs on multiple countries [8] - Main Logic: In the short - term, the US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, and the new round of US tariffs on multiple countries was in line with expectations. The supply - side operating capacity is stable, and the marginal change is small. The demand - side is in the off - season, with low initial - stage operating rates and weak demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the aluminum price is expected to move sideways in the short - term [9] - Outlook: The short - term consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to move in a range [9] Aluminum Alloy - Information: On August 11, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. Some aluminum - related projects in the US are under construction or in operation. The performance of Shunbo Alloy in H1 2025 was announced, and the retail sales of the passenger car market in July decreased [10] - Main Logic: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak on both sides. The scrap aluminum price is firm, providing cost support. The supply - side off - season operating rate continues to decline, and the demand - side is in a strong off - season atmosphere. The inventory shows a pattern of decreasing factory inventory and increasing social inventory. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to move in a range [10] - Outlook: In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are in low - level sideways movement, and the price follows that of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [11] Zinc - Information: On August 11, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of August 11, the inventory of zinc ingots increased. A lead - zinc smelting project in Xinjiang was put into production [11] - Main Logic: Macroeconomically, the demand for steel is stabilizing, and the black - series product prices are rebounding. The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, and the US dollar index declined. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and the demand is generally expected. In the long - term, the supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand growth is limited [12] - Outlook: In August, zinc ingot production will remain at a high level, and downstream demand is in the off - season. Zinc ingot inventory may continue to accumulate. However, the rebound of black - series product prices and the short - term squeeze on LME zinc suggest that the zinc price will show a sideways movement [12] Lead - Information: On August 11, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots was stable. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased [12] - Main Logic: In the spot market, the discount is stable, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead is affected by environmental protection. Some primary lead smelters are resuming production. On the demand side, some battery factories are on holiday due to high temperatures, but the lead - acid battery market has an active trade - in activity [13] - Outlook: The US economic recession risk is increasing, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppresses the US dollar index. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week, and the supply - demand is expected to be slightly in surplus. The cost of recycled lead provides strong support, and the lead price is expected to move sideways [14] Nickel - Information: On August 11, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased. There were multiple events in the nickel industry, such as asset acquisitions, investment plans, and production adjustments [14] - Main Logic: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may loosen after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The surplus of electrolytic nickel is serious, and the inventory has accumulated significantly [20] - Outlook: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons. Nickel prices will move in a wide range in the short - term and hold short positions in the medium - to - long - term [20] Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. The spot price of stainless steel was at a discount to the main contract. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased [21] - Main Logic: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. The stainless - steel production in July decreased, and the supply - side over - capacity pressure has been relieved. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of the peak - season demand [21] - Outlook: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The market's acceptance of high - price products is limited. The stainless - steel price is expected to move in a range in the short - term [21] Tin - Information: On August 11, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin remained unchanged [22] - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia may decline, and African tin production may be affected by the rainy season. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for the tin price. However, the terminal demand for tin is marginally weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult [22] - Outlook: The tight supply of tin ore provides support for the tin price. The tin price is expected to move sideways. The volatility of the tin price may increase in August [24]

Inflation Data Summary - In June 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%[1] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from 2.8% previously[1] Economic Implications - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, although tariff impacts are becoming more pronounced, particularly in clothing and furniture prices[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in September, driven by the risk of economic stagnation outweighing inflation concerns[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with energy CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year[5] - Core services, particularly housing, have weakened, counteracting gains in other service categories, while automotive prices remain depressed[8] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates continue to suppress housing demand, while the automotive sector faces challenges from both weak demand and competitive pricing pressures from overseas[8] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming more evident, with over half of companies indicating a willingness to pass on 50%-75% of cost increases to consumers[26]

Inflation Data Overview - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous 2.4%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the prior 0.1%[3] - Core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations, and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, but the mixed results raise questions about future interest rate cuts[3] - A September rate cut remains the baseline scenario, although two more inflation reports are pending before the meeting[3] - The current economic environment suggests that risks of stagnation may outweigh inflation concerns, potentially influencing the Fed's decision in September[3] Key Influences on CPI - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest rise this year, while year-on-year energy CPI improved from -3.5% to -0.8%[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] Consumer Demand Dynamics - High interest rates are cooling housing demand, while consumer spending is being constrained by previous overconsumption and elevated rates[5] - The automotive sector is experiencing a dual challenge of weak demand and price reductions from both domestic and foreign suppliers, particularly in light of tariff impacts[5] Price Trends in Core Goods - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase this year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[6] - The increase in prices for imported goods indicates a faster transmission of tariff impacts compared to previous months[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in US trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[7]

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each metal, it provides a mid - to long - term outlook, including "oscillation", "oscillation - weakening", etc., which can be roughly understood as a short - to medium - term investment view. For example, copper, aluminum, lead, stainless steel, and tin are expected to oscillate; zinc and nickel are expected to oscillate weakly; and the outlook for alumina and aluminum alloy is more specific with trading strategies [5][8][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The colored metals market is influenced by a combination of a weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand, leading to continued oscillation. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand outlook for base metals, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to short on rallies for some metals with oversupply or expected oversupply [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Current Situation**: The US May labor market data was better than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 139,000. Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. In May, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.26 million tons month - on - month and 12.86% year - on - year. As of June 9, copper inventory in mainstream regions in China rose to 149,500 tons. The US increased the tariff on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The US manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and overseas economies are at risk of further weakening. On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have announced maintenance and production cuts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rise, limiting the upward space for copper prices [5]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, supporting the bottom of copper prices. It is expected that copper will show high - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3.2 Alumina - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina dropped by 15 yuan to 3,280 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped by 41.4 yuan to 3,260.8 yuan. An electrolytic aluminum plant in the northwest region tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina, and a plant in Guangxi purchased 2,000 tons. Indonesia's Bintan Alumina Company's Phase III project entered the trial production stage, and a mining license in Guinea was revoked [5]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore. With the repair of previous spot - futures profits, an increase in operating capacity and an inventory inflection point are expected. Long - term news is frequent, but the impact is expected to be limited if not fermented on the basis of red mud. The market has relatively fully priced in the news of the revoked mining license in Guinea and is becoming desensitized to it [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain than that of far - month ore supply. Given the current back structure, consider rolling into 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse spreads. Aggressive investors can short contract 07 on rallies [6]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the average price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot spot was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As of June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 129,500 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs has intensified global trade tensions. On the supply side, the spot price of upstream alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has remained high. Overseas, the import of electrolytic aluminum into China is at a loss, and the supply growth space is limited. On the demand side, downstream demand has strengthened. In the long - term, domestic supply pressure is limited, and demand is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with the aluminum market in a tight - balance state [8]. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand has slightly increased, and it is expected that inventories will decline in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,400 yuan/ton. The SMM AOO average price was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO was - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [8]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, the pressure of the automotive off - season is high, ADC12 is weak, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory is low with firm prices. ADC12 - AOO may still weaken. In the long - term, the demand for ADC12 is expected to seasonally recover in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of an increase in ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 oscillates weakly. In the long term, ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO are expected to rise [11]. 3.5 Zinc - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 295 yuan/ton, and that of Guangdong 0 zinc was 285 yuan/ton. As of June 10, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last Thursday. Kipushi Mine is expected to produce 50,000 - 70,000 tons of zinc concentrate [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is volatile, and macro - uncertainty remains. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, domestic zinc ore processing fees have increased, and smelters have started to make profits and increase production willingness. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and terminal new orders are limited. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is small, and supply will remain in oversupply [12]. - **Outlook**: After annual maintenance, zinc ingot production has increased again, downstream demand has gradually weakened, and inventories have accumulated. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and continue to decline in the long term [12]. 3.6 Lead - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, and the difference between primary and recycled lead was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,625 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 500 tons to 53,400 tons, and the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,198 tons [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount was stable, and the difference between primary and recycled lead increased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries was stable, the lead price rose, the loss of recycled lead smelting narrowed, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental inspections. On the demand side, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the operating rate of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased last week, but the operating rate was higher than the same period in previous years due to the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets [13]. - **Outlook**: After the Geneva negotiations, Sino - US tariffs have decreased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand off - season has arrived, and battery dealers' finished product inventories are high, but the electric bicycle market's "trade - in" activities may keep the battery factory operating rate better than in previous years. The supply of lead ingots may remain stable this week. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise, and the cost of recycled lead provides high - level support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15]. 3.7 Nickel - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, a decrease of 966 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,041 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. Indonesia and France agreed to strengthen cooperation in key minerals, and BHP renewed an exploration agreement in Norway. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and has proposed a strategy to stabilize mineral and coal prices. The production of hydroxide precipitates in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park has declined [15][16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are showing marginal weakness. The ore end is relatively strong, but the rainy season may restrict raw materials. The production of intermediate products has recovered, the price of nickel salts has slightly declined, the profit of salt factories has slightly improved, and the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans is still at a loss. The supply of electrolytic nickel is in serious excess, and inventories have accumulated significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The US reciprocal tariffs have led to a systematic price decline. In the long term, short on rallies. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [18]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Current Situation**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 120,039 tons, a decrease of 1,624 tons from the previous trading day. On June 10, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless steel main contract was 540 yuan/ton. In May, the national nickel pig iron production increased, and it is expected to decrease in June. The production of high - carbon ferrochrome increased in May. The national stainless steel production decreased slightly in May [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has declined slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has weakened marginally. The 300 - series stainless steel is still in an inverted situation, putting pressure on steel mills. In May, stainless steel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to further decrease in June. Demand is gradually moving out of the peak season, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. The social inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt reduction is significant, alleviating the structural oversupply pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost side still supports steel prices, but the market's acceptance of prices is limited. Demand moving out of the peak season also puts pressure on steel prices. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost - side changes. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.9 Tin - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,415 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 38 tons to 6,866 tons. The Shanghai tin open interest increased by 107 lots to 50,717 lots. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 264,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The previous sharp decline in tin prices may be due to short - sellers entering the market in advance under long - term pessimistic expectations, and the rumor of Wa State's resumption of production was just a trigger. In the short term, after the over - decline and the news of a slow resumption of production, the price rebounded. With Wa State's tin production not yet resumed, the domestic ore supply is tight, and the supply - demand fundamentals of tin are resilient. However, the easing of supply - side disturbances and the less - optimistic long - term demand outlook limit the upward elasticity of tin prices [23]. - **Outlook**: News from Wa State has increased tin price volatility. The tight ore supply provides support for tin prices. Whether the tight ore supply can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of tin prices in June. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a weakening demand for steel and a significant decline in thermal coal prices, leading to concerns about the peak of iron and steel production [1] - The central trading focus for coking coal and coke is on the trajectory of finished steel demand, changes in coking coal supply, and the ongoing drop in thermal coal prices [1][1] - The article notes that the domestic monetary policy has been adjusted with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [1][1] Group 2 - The article reports that in April, China's total goods trade value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with exports of 2.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.3%, while imports grew by 0.8% to 1.57 trillion yuan [1][1] - It mentions that the supply of thermal coal is expected to remain weak due to increased inventory at coastal power plants and high stock levels at northern ports, leading to a continued downward pressure on prices [1][1] - The article expresses concerns that the demand for finished steel may have peaked, with the market increasingly worried about the risks associated with iron and steel production reaching its maximum capacity [1][1]