1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the overall industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The Fed's internal turmoil is strong, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear, causing precious metals to fluctuate. Gold is under pressure and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The crude oil market is generally in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical factors bring uncertainties, so it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. - The short - end bond market is affected by a slightly tight capital supply, but the overall bond market is affected by multiple factors, and its operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. - Silver is under short - term pressure due to the US economic environment, but is still bullish in the medium term [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound [4]. - Rapeseed meal has a weak supply - demand pattern and is unlikely to have a trending upward market [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and its price has short - term support [10]. - Natural rubber has a situation where raw material support and demand suppression coexist, and it will oscillate in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed internal disputes over a December rate cut are large, and gold is under pressure, with a medium - term high - level oscillation expected. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. - **Silver**: US employment pressure is high, and economic downward pressure suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver. The Fed's December rate - cut situation is uncertain, and silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US oil inventories have increased, and refinery profits have risen. Geopolitical factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and US sanctions have increased market uncertainty. The overall supply surplus situation drives the price down, and it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Money market interest rates have mostly risen, indicating a slightly tight capital supply, which is negative for short - end bonds. However, the economic pressure in the fourth quarter and the central bank's operations are positive for the bond market. The bond market is difficult to operate, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound. Farmers are advised to hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported rapeseed meal is high, and domestic aquatic product demand is weak. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [5]. - **Palm Oil**: China's October palm oil imports decreased year - on - year. November supply has increased significantly, but Indian demand expectations have increased. It has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The production and port inventory of methanol are at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - **PVC**: The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the domestic demand is stable, and the social inventory is expected to increase. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **PTA**: In November, the supply of PTA has decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has short - term support [10]. Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Thai raw material prices have changed, and China's rubber tire production and export data show a mixed situation. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural film. It is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, and the market is expected to have limited rebound space [2]. Methanol - In the inland market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance. Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, putting pressure on the port methanol market. The market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, and the 01 - contract inventory contradiction cannot be resolved. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal device operation [4]. Crude Oil - The short - term crude oil market has no clear direction. The continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones support the oil price, but the continuous production increase of OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production limit the rebound space. Brent oil is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [7]. Natural Rubber - Supply - side factors such as cold weather in Yunnan and continuous rainy season in southern Thailand may keep raw material prices high. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space; otherwise, the rubber price is expected to run between 15000 - 15500 [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be relatively loose, with limited demand support and high port inventory. The short - term rebound space of BZ2603 is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. Styrene's supply - demand situation has improved in November, but the rebound space is also limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 for EB12 [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with high production and inventory transfer to the middle and lower reaches. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass has short - term rigid demand support but faces long - term demand contraction pressure, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has support, but the rebound sustainability is insufficient. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November and loose in the future. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation, and short - fiber and bottle - chip also face supply - demand challenges [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the alumina industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with weak demand and limited upward driving force [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices decreased slightly. L15 and PP15 spreads increased. Spot prices of some products decreased, and some basis values changed [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and social inventories of PE decreased. The PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 showed different trends [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices decreased. Some basis values and regional spreads changed. Methanol enterprise inventory decreased, while port and social inventories increased [4]. - **开工率**: Domestic and overseas upstream enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased [4]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Prices**: Some refined product prices such as NYM RBOB decreased, while NYM ULSD increased [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and some spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries decreased, while China's production increased. Tire production and export showed different trends, and import volume increased [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and some spreads such as pure benzene - naphtha increased [11]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - styrene prices increased, and some spreads and cash - flows changed [11]. - **Downstream Cash - flows and开工率**: Cash - flows of some downstream products changed, and the开工率 of some products also changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices had different changes, and some basis values changed [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and开工率 decreased, and glass melting volume remained unchanged. Inventories of glass and soda ash increased [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash - flows**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [13]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 had different changes, and MEG port inventory and arrival expectations were also provided [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and some spreads and basis values changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side开工率 of PVC and caustic soda changed, and demand - side downstream开工率 also changed. Inventories of PVC and caustic soda decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to take a short - position when the price is high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 14, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of log 2601 was 788.5, up 5.0 (0.64%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 795.5, up 2.0 (0.25%); while log 2511 and log 2605 remained unchanged [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, with a 0% change. The prices of different specifications of radiation pine and spruce in these ports did not change from the previous day [2] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost on November 14 was 808.86 yuan, down 0.91 yuan from the previous day, with a 0% change. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.094, down 0.01 from the previous day, also with a 0% change [2] Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - **Weekly Forecast (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)**: The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 (in ten thousand cubic meters), a decrease of 13.6 from the previous week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [3] Inventory - **Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports was 293.0 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 5.0 (1.74%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 191.50 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 3.2 (1.70%); in Jiangsu, it was 82.45 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.2 (0.24%) [2][3] Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of November 7, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.63 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.35 (6%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 3.79 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.60 (19%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), down 0.15 (-6%) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue until Iran restricts gas supply [1]. LLDPE & PP - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight inventory build - up under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Suggest to gradually stop losses and reduce positions for previous short positions as the market is still in an oversupply situation [5]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. Supply - side factors may keep raw material prices high, while demand is weak. The market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and if raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further price decline; otherwise, prices may range between 15000 - 15500 [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has a large - scale oversupply situation. Although the spot has rebounded recently, the long - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass sales have weakened recently, and although there is short - term demand support, the long - term outlook is also bearish due to the real - estate situation [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the main downstream alumina industry. Its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, and its price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. Crude Oil - The crude oil market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Although recent news has supported prices, the upward space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase pressure and high US inventories. Brent crude may trade in the range of 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [11]. Ester Industry Chain - PX supply is relatively high, and although there is short - term demand support, the rebound is expected to be limited. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November but loose from December to Q1 next year, with limited price rebound space. Ethylene glycol is facing inventory build - up pressure. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and bottle - chip supply - demand is loose [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down on November 14 compared to November 13, with decreases of 2.28% and 2.04% respectively. The regional spreads and basis also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, while port inventory increased by 1.75%, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased, such as the external - purchased MTO装置开工率 which decreased by 2.38% [1]. LLDPE & PP - **Price and Spread**: L2601 and L2605 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 decreased slightly. The basis of PE and PP in North China and East China increased [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 3.35%, and trade - dealer inventory increased by 1.73% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.66%, and downstream加权开工率 decreased by 0.80%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 0.3% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the basis and some spreads changed. For example, the full - latex basis increased by 29.66% [7]. - **Production and Consumption**: September production in some countries changed, and tire production and export also changed. For example, September Thai production decreased by 5.45%, and tire export in September decreased by 10.65% [7]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Tire开工率 was stable or decreased slightly, and inventory increased. For example, the bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions were mostly stable or decreased slightly. The basis of glass and soda ash increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 and weekly production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories increased [9]. - **Real - Estate Data**: Real - estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales areas all showed negative growth to varying degrees [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices were stable or changed slightly. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda开工率 decreased slightly, and PVC总开工率 decreased by 3.2%. The downstream开工率 of both also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on November 14 compared to November 13. Some spreads also changed significantly, such as the WTI M1 - M3 spread which increased by 82.35% [11]. - **Market Situation**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with a weak supply - demand pattern but short - term price support [11]. Ester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude increased, and downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows changed. PX, PTA, and MEG prices and spreads also changed [14]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, and MEG port inventory was expected to increase [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and this pattern is difficult to change. The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October are expected to be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there may be a risk of early slaughter if prices decline. The future supply of pigs is still in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will further increase supply pressure [2] - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the overall demand remains weak. After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.86 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On November 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.55, down 0.02 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 1.2%; beef was 66.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 62.46 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; and white - striped chickens were 17.71 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October may be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there is a risk of early slaughter if prices fall. The future supply of pigs is in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will increase supply pressure, making the pattern of strong supply and weak demand difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3063 yuan/500 kg, down 89 yuan or 2.82% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.76 yuan/jin. The spot basis changed +89 in all three regions [3] - Inventory: On November 12, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days, up 0.08 days or 6.20% [3] Market Analysis - After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the short - term pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the policy "vacuum period" and with stable industrial operations, the prices of black building materials oscillated. The iron ore, which had a relatively large decline earlier, rebounded significantly. At night, the sector continued to oscillate, and the coking coal and coke futures prices weakened due to the fourth round of coke price increase negotiations [2][3]. - Currently, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and there are no new changes in the macro and policy aspects to affect market expectations. Therefore, the black building materials prices lack a clear trend and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. If there are more favorable policies in the future, there may be a phased upward opportunity [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume was 98.8 (-9) million tons. The spot price was strong. Overseas mine shipments were relatively stable but decreased month - on - month. The arrival of goods decreased week - on - week. The daily average molten iron was stable in the short term, but there was an increasing expectation of seasonal decline. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the marginal supply - demand might improve. It is expected that after a rapid price decline, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The supply of scrap steel decreased, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of scrap steel was weak, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate with the finished products in the short term [10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The futures market oscillated at a low level. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to increase, and the demand was stable in the short term. After three rounds of price increases, the steel mills were resistant to further increases, but the fourth - round price increase was likely to be implemented. The coke price is expected to oscillate with the coking coal [10][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was still tight, and the Mongolian coal import increase was limited. The spot price was strongly supported, but the futures price was suppressed by the finished products. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term cost supported the price, but the supply - demand was loose, and there was insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term cost was strong, but the supply - demand was loose, and the upward driving force was insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The national average price decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The supply might be disrupted, and the mid - and downstream inventories were moderately high. The current supply - demand was in surplus. If there was no more cold repair by the end of the year, the price would be under pressure; otherwise, it would rise [4][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost increased, and the bottom support was obvious. However, the supply - demand surplus suppressed the price increase. Recently, the weakening of the glass price dragged down the soda ash price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [4][15]. Steel - The spot market transactions were weak. The steel mills' profitability decreased, and the production decreased. The demand declined, and the overall inventory continued to decrease, but it was still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals had contradictions. It is expected that during the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the price will have limited downward space. Pay attention to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy [9]. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all increased. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.63% on that day, decreased by 1.21% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.24% in the past month, and decreased by 5.87% since the beginning of the year [98][99].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices highlight the contrasting dynamics in the market, with oil prices experiencing significant declines while precious metals and copper prices are on the rise, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices fell by 4.2%, closing just above $58, marking the largest drop since June, primarily due to oversupply concerns [3]. - OPEC revised its earlier forecast of a supply deficit in the oil market to a surplus, indicating an excess of 500,000 barrels per day [3]. - The current market situation is characterized by near-term contracts being cheaper than long-term contracts, signaling an oversupply [3]. Precious Metals and Copper - Gold prices increased by 1.6% and silver surged by 3.8%, as market participants anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The expectation of a weakening economy, coupled with low interest rates, makes holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver more attractive [3]. - Copper prices also rose by over 1%, as lower interest rates are expected to stimulate demand, and a weaker dollar would further support copper prices [3]. Investment Strategy - For long-term investors, it is advised to avoid rushing into oil investments until there are clear signs of improvement in the supply-demand balance [5]. - In the case of gold and silver, it is recommended to wait for price corrections to accumulate positions, focusing on assets with genuine demand support [5]. - Copper investments should be considered once economic data and Federal Reserve policies confirm the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, as copper is closely tied to economic recovery [5]. - The current market volatility presents an opportunity to identify quality assets, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and supply-demand relationships [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the news of winter coal supply guarantee, there were concerns about increased supply, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to decline rapidly. The expectation of loose coal supply and lower price center also negatively affected the prices of alloys and soda ash through the cost side. Other varieties in the sector were relatively stable. During the night session, the prices of steel and ore rebounded slightly, while other varieties remained volatile [1][2]. - In the current traditional off - season, the industry performance is average. Steel and iron ore, which had significant previous declines, have a chance of a phased rebound. Later, the price drive from the industrial side in the off - season is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can still be watched [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - The negative feedback transmission in the current industrial chain is not smooth. Steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul is weaker than in the same period of the past two years. Later, as arrivals further decline, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally, alleviating the overall inventory accumulation pressure of iron ore. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of scrap steel show both weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [2]. Carbon Element - After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are under great profit pressure and are resistant to further price increases. However, the cost support for coke is relatively strong, and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the coke price is expected to be volatile. Energy supply guarantee mainly involves thermal coal, and coal supply guarantee during the heating season is in line with expectations. Also, safety production work is emphasized, and the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has been launched. The supply of coking coal is still expected to be poor this year, and the spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The coking coal price is expected to be volatile [2]. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of silicomanganese, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increase. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, it will return to fundamental trading, and the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, the price will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price is expected to continue to be volatile and downward. Recently, due to increased costs and factory cold - repair, the market trading sentiment has improved, and the spot price has slightly increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The price above the industry's high - cost line may face certain pressure again. In the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting production capacity reduction [3]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: In the spot market, transactions are generally weak, and market sentiment has weakened. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and seasonal overhauls have increased, leading to a significant drop in steel production. In the off - season, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The current futures valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy factors that may drive a low - level rebound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipment is relatively stable, and arrivals have decreased this week. The demand for iron ore is affected by sintering restrictions and overhauls, and the iron - making water output has declined. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, but the supply - demand may be repaired marginally later. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand shows different trends in short - and long - processes. The overall daily consumption has slightly decreased, and the steel mill inventory has increased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [8]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke followed coking coal and was weak. The supply is difficult to increase due to high costs and environmental protection requirements. Although steel mills have overhaul expectations, the demand support still exists. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to be volatile [8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal was weak due to the news of energy supply guarantee. The supply is tight, and imports are also limited. The spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is suppressed by finished products. It is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply may be disturbed, but the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, it will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still at the bottom of the cycle. Recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the market sentiment has improved, but the long - term supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [13]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the sharp decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support expectation for silicomanganese. The market supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost [15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support for ferrosilicon. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [17].