Group 1: Pork Market - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.90% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 34.51 yuan/kg, down 2.38% week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak due to sluggish post-holiday consumption demand and low demand for large pigs, leading to a continued strong supply and weak demand scenario [2] Group 2: Poultry Market - The price of white feather broilers is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, a decrease of 1.05% [3] - The increase in frozen chicken inventory has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises, resulting in a weak price for broilers [3] - The decline in broiler prices, combined with high summer temperatures, has led to a slowdown in orders for chicks [3] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The average spot price of corn increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [4] - The supply of corn is tight in North China, but the new wheat harvest is putting pressure on the corn market [4] - The soybean meal supply is ample due to high production expectations from Argentina and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Market - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 13695 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.05% [5] - Supply disruptions due to weather conditions are expected to recover, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to limited demand growth [5] - The production capacity utilization rate of tire companies is lower than the same period last year, indicating weak demand [5]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 缅甸地区供应持续缩减，供应收紧预期对锡价 或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比上涨，沪镍大幅去库 截止到 6 月 6 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15225 美元/ 吨，较 5 月 30 日上涨 0.5%，LME 镍总库存为 200106 吨，较 5 月 30 日增加 0.36%；沪镍报收 12.2 万元/吨，较 5 月 30 日上 涨 0.89%，沪镍库存为 25,616.00 吨，较 5 月 30 日减少 5.39%；截止到 5 月 30 日，硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨，较 5 月 30 日价格持平。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，国内方面的情 况是，虽然菲律宾镍矿的发运量持续增加，国内冶炼厂的原材 料库存也较为充足，但主产区苏里高以及巴拉望的中高品位镍 矿品位有所下滑，这可能导致国内冶炼厂的金属产量出现一定 程度的下降。印尼方面，尽管当前内贸火法镍矿的升水依然较 为坚挺，冶炼厂因此面临较高的成本压力，成品价格的疲软导 致冶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - **PX**: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - **Start - up Rate**: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - **Production and Sales Rate**: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]

Group 1 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil prices [2] - The PTA market is expected to face considerable downward pressure due to weakening macroeconomic expectations and trade conflicts between the US and Europe [2][3] - Domestic crude oil prices have been operating at low levels since April, with a bearish trend in technical indicators [3] Group 2 - The import volume of PX in China decreased significantly in April, indicating weak terminal demand in the polyester industry [4] - The domestic PTA market is under dual pressure from increasing new capacity and slowing downstream demand growth [5] - The domestic PTA production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high [5][6] Group 3 - Downstream polyester demand has shown slight improvement, but overall growth remains limited due to weak terminal orders and inventory pressure [6] - The supply-demand structure for PTA remains weak, with increasing supply from new capacities and recovering existing facilities [7] - The geopolitical factors have raised crude oil price premiums, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest significant upward pressure on prices [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 库存压力仍较大，工业硅盘面弱势探底 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡探底，主力合约2507开于7320元/吨，最后收于7215元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-135）元/吨，变化（-1.84）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓224146手，2025-05-29仓单总数为63868手，较 前一日变化-418手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格弱稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9300 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天 津、新疆、上海、西北地区硅价也部分走低。四川地区今日硅价暂稳。 97硅今日价格同样走低。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11400-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，随着西北单体企业本周装置结束检 修恢复生产，行业单体企业开工率有所上升，但端午节后，开工预计将受部分单体企业检修周期到来继续下降。 SMM统计5月29日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58 ...

Group 1 - Short-term PTA is expected to show a strong oscillating trend due to cost-driven factors, increased export stocking, and improved terminal demand [1][3] - The recent PX price has risen significantly, with the PX and naphtha price spread (PXN) exceeding $260 per ton, leading to improved profitability for industry players [1] - PTA social inventory decreased to 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons week-on-week, continuing a downward trend since March [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of downstream polyester is expected to remain around 91% to 92%, with a slight decline in production due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [2][3] - New production capacities from companies like Hong Kong Petrochemical and Helen Petrochemical are expected to be launched between June and August, potentially leading to inventory accumulation in July [2] - The overall supply-demand structure for PTA remains favorable, supported by strong cost support and continued foreign purchasing [1][3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌，Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%，LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日增加 1.75%；沪镍报收 12.31 万元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.25%，沪镍库存为 26,955.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日 减少 2.84%；截止到 5 月 16 日，硫酸镍报收 28,900.00 元/吨， 较 5 月 16 日价格持平。根据 SMM 周报，硫酸镍方面，需求 端表现方面，经过 5 月行业去库存后，部分前驱体生产企业 6 月排产计划趋于乐观，对硫酸镍的询价活跃度显著提升，且 企业对镍盐价格的接受度有所增强。供应端来看，部分镍盐生 产企业受需求增长及原料库存紧张影响，上调了产品报价系 数，另有部分企业报价维持稳 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所变化，建筑钢厂生产积极，供应持续回升并处于年内高位，相反周度表需 虽再度回落，且仍是近年来同期低位，加之后续将季节性走弱，需求表现相对弱势，供增需弱局面 下螺纹基本面矛盾在积累，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是低位库存持续去化，多空因素博弈下钢价 延续低位震荡态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/21 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/20 2025/5/20 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 62.03 65.38 | 62.69 65.54 | 涨跌(幅) -1.05% -0.24% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 569.63 | 569.38 | 0.04% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/20 | | 美元/吨 | 699.00 | 709.50 | -1.48% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 828.00 | 840.67 | -1.51% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/20 | 元/吨 | 4732.00 | 4776.0 ...