Core Viewpoint - Huazi Technology (300490) is actively advancing project acceptance despite challenges posed by complex international political, economic, and military situations, as well as geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 1 - The company is facing multiple factors affecting its overseas projects, including international political and economic conditions [1] - The company is committed to pushing forward with project acceptance despite these challenges [1]

截至2026年2月2日，美伊紧张关系进入新高潮：伊朗最高领袖警告"任何军事行动将被视为战争开端"， 美国同步增派航母打击群至波斯湾;伊朗核设施维修完成并拒绝国际原子能机构核查，显示其战略防御 姿态升级。此类不可逆的地缘冲突风险，持续强化黄金作为"超主权避险资产"的不可替代性。 2025年全球央行净购金达863吨，创历史高位，2026年初增持趋势延续。在美元债务规模突破38万亿美 元、美债实际收益率波动加剧的背景下，各国加速推进储备资产多元化，黄金因其"无信用风险、无国 界、可跨境清算"的特性，成为外汇储备重构的核心选项。中国、印度、波兰等国持续增持，形成对金 价的长期下行缓冲机制。 【技术分析】 从日线图形看，黄金在快速冲高刷新历史纪录后显著回落，已进入技术性修正阶段。前期涨幅过大令短 周期均线明显偏离中长期均线，此番回调有助于修复过热的技术结构。 价格虽跌破短期均线支撑，但仍处在中期上升通道内，整体趋势未被破坏。动能指标自极端高位回落， 显示多头力量明显降温，但尚未进入超卖区。关键位方面，4600美元附近为重要技术支撑，若有效守 住，金价或以高位震荡完成整理;上方须重新站上4900美元，方可重启趋势性上行。 ...

来源：老黄说交易 2026年1月，受美元贬值及地缘冲突升级影响，黄金白银持续冲高，国际金价最高5596美元/盎司，单月最大涨幅近1300美元，国际银价最高121.3 美元/盎司，单月最大涨幅超50美元。 上周四，芝商所提高白银等贵金属商品保证金，加上前期暴涨积累了大量的获利盘，黄金冲高5596后开始回落。 周五，受特朗普提名"鹰派"凯文・沃什出任美联储主席消息影响，黄金白银出现崩盘式下跌，黄金最大跌幅近900美元，创下1983年以来最大跌 幅，白银最大跌幅近45美元，创下历史最大跌幅。 今天黄金低开后，回补缺口后继续下跌，主要原因有： 操作上，4584不跌破，低点逐步抬高，可以次低点为防守位北上。 4584跌破，找机会南下一次。 白宫官员称特朗普尚未就是否打击伊朗作出最终决定，仍对外交解决方案持开放态度。美方官员表示特朗普近期关于谈判的言论并非虚张声 势，但不确定伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊是否会授权其外交官达成一项美国可接受的协议。中东地缘局势有所降温。 今天黄金怎么看？ 老规矩，先给各位老表，汇报一下目前的实时金价，国际黄金4695，沪金（2604）1057，黄金（T+D)1055，离岸人民币汇率6.9488 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is expected to enter a premium era in 2026, supported by strong price momentum from supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, alongside increased trading activity due to loose liquidity and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 1: 2025 Market Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector index rose by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [2]. - Key segments leading the gains included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [2]. - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold and silver averaging over 70% higher year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are becoming more frequent and severe, with cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel prices significantly impacted [3][11]. - Factors such as resource depletion, insufficient investment, and resource nationalism contribute to a long-term normalization of supply constraints [3][11]. - Despite potential weaknesses in demand from sectors like real estate and home appliances, strong demand is expected from electric grid investments, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [3][11]. Group 3: Trading Activity and Price Elasticity - Increased trading activity is anticipated to amplify price elasticity, with precious metals reaching new highs and benefiting from heightened investor interest [4][12]. - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to increased risk aversion and price premiums across various metals, including copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [4][12]. Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially hitting $120 per ounce [5][12]. - Copper and aluminum prices are forecasted to average $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively, supported by supply constraints and resilient demand [5][12]. - Lithium prices are expected to rise to 120,000-200,000 yuan per ton due to strong demand from energy storage, while cobalt and nickel prices are also projected to increase significantly [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited upside and downside potential [2][4]. - Macro - level factors include Trump's agreement information reducing the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of Wash as Fed Chair causing a decline in precious metals and a weak overall macro - sentiment. However, strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol [4]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices [4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary (Supply, Demand, Inventory) Supply - From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a 1.43% week - on - week increase. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current level [4]. Demand - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly as the load of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant increased [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant is expected to shut down next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu are expected to shut down for maintenance, and plants like Shandong Lianyi may continue to reduce their loads, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear shutdown plan for the next period, and some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to the recovery of load - reducing plants and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on production facilities [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% week - on - week increase [4]. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.00% week - on - week increase. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. 191,400 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded in East China during the period. In Jiangsu's main storage areas along the Yangtze River,提货 decreased, and although an olefin plant in Zhejiang restarted, inventories still accumulated due to the supply of foreign vessels. In South China, only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment was available in Guangdong, and the main storage areas'提货 decreased. Since there was no supply from foreign vessels, inventories decreased. In Fujian, there was no unloading during the week, and inventories also decreased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 - 2026 [7][8][9][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - The report shows the trends of methanol production, capacity utilization rates by region and process, import - related data (import volume, cost, arrival volume, and profit), production costs, and production profits from 2018 - 2026 [25][27][35][39][42] 3.4 Demand - The report shows the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.), production profits of downstream industries, and procurement volumes and inventories of downstream industries from 2018 - 2026 [47][55][63][73] 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the trends of methanol factory inventories (by region) and port inventories (by region) from 2018 - 2026 [78][83] 3.6 Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term high - level fluctuations, with resistance at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period: The 5 - 9 monthly spread may show a positive spread pattern [4]. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - High-sulfur fuel oil's strong performance continues, and in the short term, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The number of global CDU maintenance has increased slightly. Although Middle Eastern exports continue to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and Singapore's imports have not significantly increased. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran remain uncertain, causing market concerns about unexpected supply disruptions. High-sulfur prices will remain high unless there is a significant increase in Singapore's imports [4]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, despite the复产 of the Al Zour refinery and the gradual increase in Japanese exports, there are still some positive factors. Brazilian exports have declined due to refinery maintenance, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low-sulfur exports. In the short term, low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support and are unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - Valuation: FU is expected to range from 2,850 to 2,950, and LU from 3,200 to 3,400 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment, and there is potential for further price increases. 2) Inter-period: The contango structure of FU and LU has reversed to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues subside. 3) Inter-variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly, and the LU-FU spread will continue to narrow in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall, independent, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 are provided, showing the trends and fluctuations in refinery maintenance [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Refinery Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's fuel oil production, low-sulfur fuel oil production, and domestic fuel oil commodity volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production capacity and market supply of domestic refineries [14]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The report shows data on China's marine fuel oil consumption, Singapore's fuel oil sales, and China's fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025, reflecting the demand situation in the fuel oil market [18]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the inventory levels and trends in different regions [21][22]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Spot FOB Prices in Asia-Pacific**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil market [27][29]. - **Spot FOB Prices in Europe**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the price trends in the European fuel oil market [31]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Prices in the United States**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the US fuel oil market [32]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026, are presented, showing the price trends in the paper and derivative markets [33][36][39]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the spread relationships in the fuel oil spot market [41][43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 are presented, showing the crack spread relationships in the global fuel oil market [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: Data on the month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the month spread relationships in the global fuel oil paper market [47]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's fuel oil import and export volumes from 2018 - 2025 are presented, showing the domestic fuel oil import and export situation [51][52]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [54][56]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [59][60]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The report reviews the significant increase in Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices during the week, with the Zhoushan market moving in tandem. In terms of spreads, the narrowing of the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spot price spreads and the widening of the LU domestic and foreign price spreads are analyzed [64]. - **Spot Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil spot prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the spot market [68][69]. - **Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of FU and LU futures prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the futures market [71][73]. 3.7 FU and LU Positions, Volumes, and Warehouse Receipts - **Positions and Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are presented, showing the trading activity and market participation in the fuel oil futures market [76][78][80]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the inventory and delivery pressure in the fuel oil futures market [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 1, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to fluctuate widely recently, and the short-term market has entered a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. High-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to remain high, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support at the bottom and are unlikely to weaken significantly in the short term. [4] - The recommended trading strategies are: 1) Unilateral trading: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment in the short term, and there may be further upside potential. 2) Inter-period trading: The inter-period spreads of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) Inter-variety trading: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly in the short term, and the LU-FU spread will continue to shrink in the short term. [4] - The estimated price ranges for FU and LU are 2850 - 2950 and 3200 - 3400, respectively. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - The number of global CDU maintenance units has increased slightly. Although the exports from the Middle East have continued to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and the imports in the Singapore market have not increased significantly for the time being. [4] - Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, global refinery maintenance, and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volumes are presented in the form of charts. [6][13][15] Demand - Data on domestic and international fuel oil demand, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, are presented in the form of charts. [17][18] Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including the heavy oil inventories in Singapore, the fuel oil inventories in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventories in the United States, are presented in the form of charts. [20][21][22] Price and Spread - Data on the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and the United States, as well as the prices of paper and derivatives, are presented in the form of charts. [26][31][32] - Data on fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper monthly spreads are presented in the form of charts. [41][42][47] Import and Export - Data on domestic fuel oil import and export, as well as global high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil import and export, are presented in the form of charts. [50][54][57] Futures Market Indicators and Inter-Region Spreads - The prices of Asia-Pacific fuel oil in the week increased significantly, and the trend in the Zhoushan market was in sync. The inter-region spreads of high-sulfur fuel oil narrowed, while those of LU widened. [63] - Data on the inter-region spreads in the spot market, as well as the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts of FU and LU, are presented in the form of charts. [66][73][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 7.81%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 11%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% month - on - month decline [6][37]. - The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather in Northwest Europe have also short - term boosted freight rates [6][37]. - In December, China's foreign trade rebounded beyond expectations. Exports are the core driving force of China's economy, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][37]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's price reduction pressure has slightly improved, but other shipping companies continue the pre - festival trend of reducing prices to attract cargo [6][37]. - The decline in eurozone inflation provides conditions for policy wait - and - see, but leading indicators such as PMI are still near historical lows, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [6][37]. - Overall, the slight price increase by multiple shipping companies at the current price end boosts futures prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2604 contract's trading volume and open interest both decreased [13][15]. - The table shows the week - on - week changes and closing prices of different futures contracts and the spot index [10]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, and plans to announce the nomination of the next Fed chair next week. The US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [18]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement, with significant tariff cuts on both sides [18]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Unemployment has shown signs of stabilizing, and inflation remains relatively high [18]. - China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership and tariff cuts on whisky [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week [24]. - The export container freight rate index fluctuated slightly this week [27]. - Global container capacity continued to grow, and European Line capacity rebounded slightly. BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [30]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the price trends of futures and spot, the impact of policies, and suggestions for investors [37][38]