本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...

【#金价本周反弹近600美元#券商：维持中长期看多立场】#现货黄金本周反弹近600美元#2月4日，现货 黄金重新站上5000美元，日内涨幅扩大逾2%，较本周低点反弹近600美元。中国银河证券首席策略分析 师杨超对@中新经纬 表示，随着特朗普提名立场偏鹰的凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，政策路径的模糊 性与政治干预担忧，使黄金成为对冲货币政策不确定性的核心资产。杨超认为，尽管金价短期剧烈震 荡，仍维持中长期看多立场，核心逻辑未变，但市场结构呈现高波动、高投机特征。短期若地缘冲突缓 和、美联储明确维持高利率，则可能触发大规模获利回吐，对价格构成重大下行压力。（宅男财经）# 金饰价格涨到1600元# ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

但2月2日油价盘中跌幅一度超过5%。瑞银在其最新发布的一份研究报告中称，本轮油价的大幅攀升， 核心驱动力并非供需基本面的根本性改善，而是伊朗局势升级引发的风险溢价上升。 瑞银强调，油价上涨的可持续性高度依赖地缘冲突的演变。若伊朗及周边地区的能源基础设施未受到实 质性冲击，油价将面临显著回调风险，这与2025年6-7月的市场走势具有相似性——当时地缘紧张局势 缓解后，油价出现了阶段性回落。 01 关键变量：霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率低 原本走势强劲无比的黄金白银突然崩盘，看空情绪也传导到了能源市场。 霍尔木兹海峡的通航状态是影响全球石油贸易的"生命线"，也是本次报告重点关注的核心风险点。 2026年开年以来，受伊朗相关地缘局势紧张影响，布伦特原油价格累计上涨近20%至每桶约70美元。 伊朗供需：产量稳定，出口合理 作为石油市场的关键风险变量，伊朗的石油生产与出口格局并未出现大幅异动。根据国际能源署(IEA) 数据，过去几个月伊朗石油产量保持稳定，2025年12月原油日均产量达到340万桶，展现出较强的生产 韧性。 出口方面，伊朗原油出口量从2025年10月190万桶/日的近期高点回落至约150万桶/日，但仍处于近期形 ...

商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 2 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿，沪银、铂、钯、碳酸 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huazi Technology (300490) is actively advancing project acceptance despite challenges posed by complex international political, economic, and military situations, as well as geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 1 - The company is facing multiple factors affecting its overseas projects, including international political and economic conditions [1] - The company is committed to pushing forward with project acceptance despite these challenges [1]

截至2026年2月2日，美伊紧张关系进入新高潮：伊朗最高领袖警告"任何军事行动将被视为战争开端"， 美国同步增派航母打击群至波斯湾;伊朗核设施维修完成并拒绝国际原子能机构核查，显示其战略防御 姿态升级。此类不可逆的地缘冲突风险，持续强化黄金作为"超主权避险资产"的不可替代性。 2025年全球央行净购金达863吨，创历史高位，2026年初增持趋势延续。在美元债务规模突破38万亿美 元、美债实际收益率波动加剧的背景下，各国加速推进储备资产多元化，黄金因其"无信用风险、无国 界、可跨境清算"的特性，成为外汇储备重构的核心选项。中国、印度、波兰等国持续增持，形成对金 价的长期下行缓冲机制。 【技术分析】 从日线图形看，黄金在快速冲高刷新历史纪录后显著回落，已进入技术性修正阶段。前期涨幅过大令短 周期均线明显偏离中长期均线，此番回调有助于修复过热的技术结构。 价格虽跌破短期均线支撑，但仍处在中期上升通道内，整体趋势未被破坏。动能指标自极端高位回落， 显示多头力量明显降温，但尚未进入超卖区。关键位方面，4600美元附近为重要技术支撑，若有效守 住，金价或以高位震荡完成整理;上方须重新站上4900美元，方可重启趋势性上行。 ...

来源：老黄说交易 2026年1月，受美元贬值及地缘冲突升级影响，黄金白银持续冲高，国际金价最高5596美元/盎司，单月最大涨幅近1300美元，国际银价最高121.3 美元/盎司，单月最大涨幅超50美元。 上周四，芝商所提高白银等贵金属商品保证金，加上前期暴涨积累了大量的获利盘，黄金冲高5596后开始回落。 周五，受特朗普提名"鹰派"凯文・沃什出任美联储主席消息影响，黄金白银出现崩盘式下跌，黄金最大跌幅近900美元，创下1983年以来最大跌 幅，白银最大跌幅近45美元，创下历史最大跌幅。 今天黄金低开后，回补缺口后继续下跌，主要原因有： 操作上，4584不跌破，低点逐步抬高，可以次低点为防守位北上。 4584跌破，找机会南下一次。 白宫官员称特朗普尚未就是否打击伊朗作出最终决定，仍对外交解决方案持开放态度。美方官员表示特朗普近期关于谈判的言论并非虚张声 势，但不确定伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊是否会授权其外交官达成一项美国可接受的协议。中东地缘局势有所降温。 今天黄金怎么看？ 老规矩，先给各位老表，汇报一下目前的实时金价，国际黄金4695，沪金（2604）1057，黄金（T+D)1055，离岸人民币汇率6.9488 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is expected to enter a premium era in 2026, supported by strong price momentum from supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, alongside increased trading activity due to loose liquidity and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 1: 2025 Market Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector index rose by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [2]. - Key segments leading the gains included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [2]. - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold and silver averaging over 70% higher year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are becoming more frequent and severe, with cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel prices significantly impacted [3][11]. - Factors such as resource depletion, insufficient investment, and resource nationalism contribute to a long-term normalization of supply constraints [3][11]. - Despite potential weaknesses in demand from sectors like real estate and home appliances, strong demand is expected from electric grid investments, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [3][11]. Group 3: Trading Activity and Price Elasticity - Increased trading activity is anticipated to amplify price elasticity, with precious metals reaching new highs and benefiting from heightened investor interest [4][12]. - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to increased risk aversion and price premiums across various metals, including copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [4][12]. Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially hitting $120 per ounce [5][12]. - Copper and aluminum prices are forecasted to average $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively, supported by supply constraints and resilient demand [5][12]. - Lithium prices are expected to rise to 120,000-200,000 yuan per ton due to strong demand from energy storage, while cobalt and nickel prices are also projected to increase significantly [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]