Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: May 6 - 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Recently, the marginal improvement of macro - economic data has weakened the safe - haven demand, short - term easing of trade frictions, and technical adjustments have led to a high - level decline in gold prices. However, the long - term support logic remains unchanged, with the US fiscal deficit and global central bank gold purchases providing fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the May non - farm payroll data and the change in the Fed's balance - sheet reduction rhythm. If geopolitical risks resurface or inflation rebounds, precious metals may regain upward momentum [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy: Gold still has short - term callback pressure. Wait for the right time to configure and buy call options. The lower support for the main gold contract 2506 is 758 - 765, and the upper pressure is 829 - 836 [11]. 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, and it may be near the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Silver has "dual attributes". When macro - uncertainty increases, although its safe - haven attribute can bring certain positive factors, its industrial attribute makes it also dragged down by the weakening economic growth expectations. Currently, the slowdown of global manufacturing growth and the weakening demand expectations in industries such as electronics and photovoltaics further suppress the fundamentals of silver. In the long - term, the continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plan and the growth of industrial demand, and the enhanced safe - haven attribute of silver due to geopolitical risks support the silver price under the resonance of multiple factors [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: Shanghai Silver will continue to consolidate sideways. The expected operating range of the main Shanghai Silver contract 2506 is 6900 - 8800, and it is recommended to adopt a grid trading strategy [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see. It was expected that the main silver contract 2506 would fluctuate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended within the range of 6900 - 8800 [35]. - This Week's Strategy: Not clearly stated in the provided content other than the last - week's related information 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][46][48]

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期货研究报告|外汇月报 2025-05-06 预期扰动增强，美元短暂偏弱 研究院 研究员 蔡劭立 FICC 组 投资咨询号：Z0014617 联系人 朱思谋 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 美元短期偏弱，建议维持区间震荡思路，关注政策扰动与外部经济预期变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 美元兑人民币汇率在 4 月下旬至 5 月初整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，阶段高点出现在 7.35 附近，随后回落至 7.27 一线。离岸人民币在五一假期期间短线快速升值，受中美贸易预 期改善、美元指数回调以及市场风险偏好回暖等多因素影响。美元指数 4 月累计下跌约 4.5%，为近年来较大单月跌幅。期权隐含波动率先升后降，看涨期权隐波回落，人民币 汇率走势更趋双向波动。 4 月中国宏观数据环比走弱但整体好于预期，美国增长数据不及预期。中国制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0，显示制造业短期承压，但高技术制造业 PMI 维持在 51.5 的扩张区间，非 制造业商务活动指数为 50.4，服务业恢复动能延续。美国方面，4 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下 滑至 48.7，一季度 GDP 录得-0.3%，带动花旗经济意外指 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a period of consolidation, influenced by multiple factors, as it awaits key data for direction [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are dominating market sentiment, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points in 2025, which weakens the dollar and supports gold [3][4] - Recent risk events have dampened safe-haven demand for gold, as market sentiment improves due to reduced concerns over tariffs and signs of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation [4] - Macroeconomic data, such as the rise in the US March Composite PMI from 51.6 to 53.5, has caused temporary fluctuations in the dollar, but overall economic concerns remain, with upcoming consumer confidence and new home sales data being crucial for gold's outlook [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The psychological level of $3000 serves as a battleground for bulls and bears, with potential support at $2982-$2978 if this level is breached [7] - Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing volatility, suggesting a period of consolidation, while long-term moving averages confirm an upward trend [8] - Momentum indicators like MACD show signs of weakening bullish momentum, with a potential for technical selling if certain thresholds are crossed [9] Group 3: Future Trend Outlook - The medium to long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, but short-term adjustments are expected, particularly if the PCE data reinforces rate cut expectations [11] - A breakthrough above $3058 could lead to a move towards the $3100 level, contingent on confirming bullish signals from technical indicators [11] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected US economic data could diminish the urgency for rate cuts, potentially leading to a deeper correction in gold prices [12]