Report Date - The report is dated July 10, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3978 and 4000 points and support at 3940 and 3930 points [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 10, 2025 [2][33] - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc. are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation; silver and soybean meal are expected to be in a weak - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025 [1][2] Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI continued to rise. New employment - stabilizing policies were introduced, and market supervision strengthened fair competition [8][9] - **International News**: Trump proposed tariff increases on multiple countries. The Fed showed differences in interest rate outlooks, and the EU prepared counter - measures against the US in trade disputes [9][10] Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On July 9, COMEX gold futures rose 0.17%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% [11] - **Crude Oil**: On July 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [11] - **Base Metals**: On July 9, LME copper futures fell 1.33%, and LME zinc and aluminum futures rose [11] Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend with weakened upward momentum and increased downward pressure. It is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation in July [12][13][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 9, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year and thirty - year futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 10 [33][38] - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures showed different trends on July 9, 2025, and their trends on July 10 are predicted, such as gold futures being in a strong - biased oscillation and silver futures being in a weak - biased oscillation [41][46]

Macro Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [5] - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the average economic growth rate in China during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan reached 5.5%, with an expected economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during this period [5] Industry Dynamics - The national marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with related stocks including China COSCO Shipping (601919) and China Shipbuilding Industry (600150) [6] - BYD has launched "L4-level automatic parking," with institutions optimistic about the incremental component opportunities, related stocks include Desay SV (002920) and Bertel (603596) [6] - Since 2025, despite overall revenue pressure on innovative pharmaceutical companies, the export growth rate has turned positive, with related stocks including BeiGene (688235) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) [6] Company Focus - Northern Rare Earth (600111) expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a growth of 1883% to 2015% compared to the same period last year [7] - Shenglong Development (002299) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [7] - Guibao Pet (301498) plans to invest 650 million yuan from its own funds to build an intelligent warehousing and digital sorting center project [7] - Baoming Technology (002992) has developed a fourth-generation composite copper foil product in response to future market demands for high safety and ultra-fast charging in lithium batteries, which has undergone customer sample testing [7] Market Review and Outlook - On July 9, the market opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3512 points during the day but closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points, failing to stay above 3500 points [8] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%, with a total trading volume of 1.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as diversified finance, cultural media, medical services, banking, and cement materials saw gains, while insurance, non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding, wind power equipment, and semiconductors experienced notable declines [8] - The market is showing increased divergence, with leading sectors lacking sustainability, contributing to cautious buying behavior among investors [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily investment analysis and trend forecasts for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, influenced by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, macro - economic environment, and industry news [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Inventory increase puts pressure on copper prices. The current trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Multiple countries have announced measures to increase copper production, and LME's new warehouse in Hong Kong has attracted copper storage [5][7]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to run within a range. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral stance. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data have been released [8][9]. Lead - Lead is supported by expectations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation. China's 6 - month CPI and PPI data are relevant [10][12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum's center of gravity is moving up; alumina is short - term strong due to the rainy season in Guinea; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [14][16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's upward elasticity is limited, and the price is under pressure at a low level. Stainless steel's inventory is slightly digested, and the price is recovering but with limited elasticity. The trend strengths are 0 for both nickel and stainless steel. Multiple industry news items, such as production changes in Indonesian nickel - related factories, have been reported [17][23]. Lithium Carbonate - There is an expected increase in the mining end, and the warehouse receipts are rising but the total amount is low. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market volatility is increasing. Polysilicon's volatility is intensifying, and attention should be paid to policies. The trend strengths are 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon. Yunnan has issued policies to promote the photovoltaic industry [27][30]. Iron Ore - Iron ore's expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. China's June CPI data has been released [31]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for both. Multiple industry news items, such as steel production and inventory data and Vietnam's anti - dumping measures, have been reported [34][37]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by macro - sentiment and are in wide - range shocks. The trend strengths are 0 for ferrosilicon and 1 for silicomanganese. Multiple industry news items, including price quotes and steel mill procurement information, have been reported [38][40]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke is in a slightly upward - trending shock; coking coal is affected by news and is also in a slightly upward - trending shock. The trend strengths are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal. Price and inventory data, as well as industry news, have been provided [41][44]. Steam Coal - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral situation [46][49]. Forest Products Logs - Logs are experiencing a main contract switch and are in a wide - range shock. The trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. Trump has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [50][52]. Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), PTA, and MEG - PX is in a single - sided shock market; PTA requires attention to the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts and a month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is in a single - sided shock market, and a month - spread long - position arbitrage should be considered at low levels. The trend strengths are 0 for PX, 0 for PTA, and 1 for MEG. Market supply and demand information and price data have been provided [53][60]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber is in a slightly upward - trending shock; synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector's rebound [27][29]. Asphalt - Asphalt is temporarily in a shock, and attention should be paid to the risk of rising crude oil prices [31]. LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, and PVC - LLDPE is short - term strong in a shock; PP's spot price is falling, and the trading is light; caustic soda is short - term strong; pulp is in a slightly upward - trending shock; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is short - term in a shock; urea is in a slight upward - trending pattern; styrene is short - term in a shock; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is in a short - term wide - range shock; PVC is short - term in a shock and will face pressure later [22][51]. Energy and Shipping Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session performance is weak, and it is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a short - term shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [44]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 08 contract is in a shock consolidation, and a light short - position in the 10 contract can be held [44]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, and Peanut - Palm oil is pushed up by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans; soybean meal may be in a weak shock due to trade concerns and the decline of US soybeans; soybean's spot price is stable, and the market is in a shock; corn is in a shock adjustment; sugar is in a consolidation period; cotton's old - crop inventory shortage expectation continues to support the futures price; attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices in the peak season for eggs; the sentiment in the live - pig spot market is weakening; peanuts have support at the bottom [44][70]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber is short - term in a shock, and a reverse arbitrage should be considered at high levels; bottle - chip is short - term in a shock, and a long - PR short - PF strategy can be adopted [44][57]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a shock operation [58].

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year in June, ending a four-month downward trend, influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices decreasing by 0.3% and non-food prices rising by 0.1% [3]. - The decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% to 0.5% year-on-year, reducing its downward impact on CPI by approximately 0.18 percentage points [3]. - International commodity price fluctuations led to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing about 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, marking a new high in nearly 14 months [3]. PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a consistent decline in June, but some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [8]. - The construction of a unified national market and increased efforts to combat disorderly low-price competition are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors [8]. - Prices in the automotive sector, including both traditional and new energy vehicles, have shown signs of recovery, with respective year-on-year declines narrowing [8]. Consumer Demand and Living Costs - The demand for housing rentals has increased during the graduation season, leading to a 0.1% rise in rental prices [6]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a rise in prices for daily necessities and clothing, with general daily goods and clothing prices increasing by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively [9]. - High-tech industries are also seeing price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year [9].

2025年07月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 731.0 | -1.5 | -0. 20% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is shifting towards macroeconomic data, particularly the actual evolution of economic growth and inflation, despite recent policy uncertainties [1] - UBS expects a slowdown in US economic growth but does not foresee a recession, with consumer spending likely to moderate due to inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation data is anticipated to become evident in the coming months, with economic growth expected to weaken further by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, with a forecast of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1] - The assumption is that the effective tariff rate will stabilize at the current level of 15%, which is not expected to trigger an economic recession [1] Group 3 - As policy outlook becomes clearer, UBS suggests that market volatility will gradually return to normal, advising investors to prepare for opportunities in 2026 [2] - Investment strategies include continuing to allocate to gold for political risk hedging, investing in quality fixed-income products, and positioning for long-term equity investments [3] Group 4 - UBS has upgraded the financial sector to an "attractive" rating due to benefits from regulatory easing and capital returns post-stress tests [3] - The firm maintains an "attractive" rating for communication services, healthcare, utilities, and information technology, citing strong growth drivers and defensive attributes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have entered a consolidation phase after briefly breaking through the 3400-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - The market is primarily driven by existing funds, with no significant evidence of new capital entering the market in the short term, leading to a potential lack of sustained volume growth [1] - Technical analysis indicates that without a significant increase in trading volume, the market is likely to continue experiencing narrow fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to remain in a narrow trading range, with upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including CPI, PPI, and Q2 GDP growth, likely to attract investor attention [2] - Investors are advised to focus on the macroeconomic data and its implications for the economic fundamentals, especially as the half-year reporting period for listed companies approaches [2] Group 3 - The current market dynamics show a rotation among traditional sectors such as steel, cement, coal, and glass, which have recently gained strength, while previously high-performing sectors like telecommunications and semiconductors have seen declines [1]

Core Insights - Financial markets are shifting focus from tariff policies to macroeconomic data and the impact of AI on corporate earnings [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has significantly decreased, with expected tariff levels stabilizing between 14% and 17% [2] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran situations, are deemed to have limited macroeconomic impact unless they lead to substantial oil price increases [3] Macroeconomic Outlook - A significant slowdown in global economic growth is anticipated in 2025, with US core PCE inflation projected to reach 3.1% year-on-year by Q4 2025 [4][5] - Initial GDP growth estimates for Q4 2025 are 0.6% for the US and 0.2% for the Eurozone, with expectations of a rebound in 2026 due to fiscal support from tax reforms and stimulus measures [4] AI Impact - The focus of the market is shifting towards the efficiency and cost-reduction capabilities of AI applications, which are beginning to show positive effects on corporate earnings [6] - The adoption of AI is expected to continue driving profitability in the coming quarters, despite an overall economic slowdown [6] Investment Strategy - Barclays maintains an optimistic outlook, favoring equities over bonds in asset allocation, citing low valuations in Europe and the underperformance of Chinese tech giants compared to previous years [7] - The firm acknowledges typical investment risks but remains confident in the potential for stock market gains [7]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 26 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3448.45 点；深 证成指跌 0.48%，收报 10343.48 点；创业板指跌 0.66%，收报 2114.43 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15832 亿，较昨 日小幅缩量 196 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 26 日回调整理，收盘 3946.02，环比下跌 14.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1399.0 元，环比上涨 25.3。 6 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 826.8 元，环比上涨 27.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货提降，焦企保持小幅亏损，无主动提产动能，高频数据显示焦企开工下滑，供应收缩。需求， 淡季钢厂铁水产量暂时企稳，上周钢联口径铁水产量周环比小幅回升，炉料日耗有支撑。焦炭供应边际下滑，叠 加真实需求有所好转，焦企库存压力缓解。 客服产品系列•日评 月全球天胶产量料降 1.2%至 104 万吨，较上月增加 35.6%； ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Contracts continue to decline, in line with the daily report's expectations. Given the high difficulty of trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the trading difficulty is high, and the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise without more positive news. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period. [2] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period. [2] - On June 25, the main contract 2508 closed at 1740.2, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 50,800 lots and an open interest of 43,500 lots, a decrease of 1263 lots from the previous day. [3] Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in May was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5). [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. [2] - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6). [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. It has been suggested to short lightly when the 2508 contract rebounds above 2000. Hold existing short positions and stop - loss long positions, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. [4] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when contracts rally and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction. [4] - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2506 - 2604 are adjusted to 16%. [4] - Margin: The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. [4] - Daily opening limit: The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots. [4] Geopolitical News - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Mohammad Eslami said on the 24th that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program after military strikes by Israel and the US. [5] - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced on the 24th that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel has ended, and he called on all agencies to focus on reconstruction. [5]