1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices rebounded, but the basis weakened. It is still the off - season for steel, with better - than - expected decline in off - season demand. High production has not been reduced, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. Weekly SMM data shows a decline in weekly steel exports. Steel is in a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Recent raw material rebounds support the upward shift of the finished product price center. Rebound - biased short operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports is expected to remain at a high level. The demand for hot metal increased slightly last week, and the profitability of steel mills remained stable. However, terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, and there are uncertainties in export and overseas economic changes. Port and steel mill inventories increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 [3]. Coke - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but a phased bottom is emerging. Supply tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. Demand has rigid support from hot metal, but the hot metal output is on a downward trend. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was stable. Domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal types having price rebounds. Supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and accidents. Imported coal has different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal import profits inverting. Demand from coking and downstream industries has some resilience, and there are signs of recovery in restocking demand. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand continued to weaken, and spot prices were weak. Factory inventories decreased but were still high. Iron water demand increased slightly, and there are uncertainties in terminal demand. Non - steel demand has some short - term improvement, and exports may maintain some resilience. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Demand is weak in the off - season. Manganese ore shipments were basically flat globally, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventories decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Thread steel spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged, while futures prices increased slightly. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices showed mixed changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter - produced thread steel in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coil and thread steel in different regions increased [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.2% to 242.2 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 868.5 tons, with thread steel production increasing by 2.2% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 0.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.2% to 1338.9 tons, with thread steel inventory decreasing by 1.3% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 5.6%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased by 0.4%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 3.4% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.2%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the price indexes of new - exchange 62% Fe and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 8.6% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 4.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume increased by 4.1%, and the national monthly hot metal and crude steel output increased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.1%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke remained unchanged, and the 01 - contract price increased by 0.9%. The 09 - contract basis and the J09 - J01 spread decreased [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory decreased by 1.9%, with coking plant and steel mill inventories decreasing [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 9.0% [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 1.5%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.7%. The 09 - contract basis and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs decreased by 0.1%, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of some domestic coal types remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 8.8%, and the coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel mills had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 0.8%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price increases. The SF - SM main contract spread was 22.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes. The export price remained unchanged [7]. Supply - The production enterprise's operating rate increased by 4.3%, and the weekly output increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.1%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price decreases [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes [7]. Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment was basically flat, domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferromanganese increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese from steel - making and non - steel industries has uncertainties [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market remains tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the tense situation in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are at a low level, and LME copper inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, the off - season characteristics are evident, with a decline in power grid orders and weak performance in new energy, photovoltaics, and home decoration. The demand for copper tubes from the air - conditioning industry has weakened, but lower prices can still attract downstream restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, the spot processing fee TC is continuously weakening, and the supply of recycled copper is in short supply. The probability of future production cuts or shutdowns of overseas smelters is increasing. [6] - Due to the fluctuations in US tariff policies and the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are becoming more cautious about global trade and economic growth. The macro and micro logics lack resonance, and it is expected that the price will not show a trend. However, the low domestic and overseas inventories indicate that there is still upward elasticity when the copper price is low. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage, but the large B - structure of LME will lead to losses for short - position roll - over. At the same time, the low - level depletion of domestic inventories allows the Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage to continue to be held. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The copper price volatility in the four markets continues to be weak. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 17%, and the LME copper price volatility is around 5%. [10] - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper has widened, and the LME copper spot premium has increased. The spread between Shanghai copper 07 - 08 has risen from 210 yuan/ton on June 13th to 240 yuan/ton on June 20th. The LME 0 - 3 spread has expanded from a premium of 73.41 US dollars/ton to 274.99 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed. [12][14] - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, COMEX, LME copper, and international copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 20,700 lots to 531,200 lots. [15] - **Fund and Industrial Position**: The net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased. The net short position of LME commercial has decreased from 67,300 lots on June 6th to 67,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased from 24,100 lots on June 3rd to 26,300 lots on June 10th. [21] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, rising from a premium of 35 yuan/ton on June 13th to 120 yuan/ton on June 20th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded to 40 US dollars/ton. The US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has risen to 190 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable at 107.5 US dollars/ton. [25][27] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has declined from 491,300 tons on June 12th to 487,600 tons on June 19th. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, slightly rising from 144,800 tons on June 12th to 145,900 tons on June 19th. The bonded - area inventory has increased from 59,700 tons on June 12th to 64,300 tons on June 19th. The COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. [34] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 07 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating relatively tight overseas spot markets. [35] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, with China importing 2.3952 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The port inventory has decreased from 632,000 tons on June 13th to 514,000 tons on June 20th. The processing fee has continued to be weak, with the spot TC at - 44.78 US dollars/ton in the week of June 20th, and the smelter loss is about 3,712 yuan/ton. [38][41] - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year. In May, the import of recycled copper was 185,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 91,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.23%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [42][48] - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased, with 74,000 tons imported in April, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, the processing fee was at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 800 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [53] - **Refined Copper**: The production of domestic refined copper has increased more than expected. In May, the production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. The import volume has increased, with 253,100 tons imported in May, a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. Attention should be paid to the profitability of copper exports. [56] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of June 19th, the operating rate of wire and cable declined. [59] - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has remained stable. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened. [62][65] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level. [66] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well, with the cumulative consumption from January to May at 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and the apparent consumption at 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 140.8 billion yuan from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%. [74] - **Air - Conditioning and New Energy Vehicles**: In May, the domestic air - conditioning production was 20.812 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%, and the production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.11%. [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Most metals are expected to show different trends of price fluctuations in the short term, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, etc. [1][3][4] - The investment value and risks of different non - ferrous metals vary, and investors need to pay attention to inventory changes, cost factors, and policy impacts. [1][3][14] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.32% to $9,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,280 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 77,600 - 78,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,700/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 4,025 to 103,325 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.5 tons, remaining at a low level. [1] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and copper follows risk preferences. The tight supply of copper concentrates strengthens, and low inventory strongly supports copper prices, but weakening demand restricts the upside. [1] Aluminum - **Price**: Yesterday, LME aluminum closed down 0.82% to $2,525/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,300 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,480 - 2,550/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 17,000 to 646,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 54,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.9 tons to 449,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 345,000 tons. [3] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and rising oil prices push up overseas aluminum costs, but demand concerns suppress sentiment. Low domestic inventory and possible easing of US steel - aluminum tariffs support price increases, but weakening downstream demand restricts the upside. [3] Lead - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.70% to 16,932 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend. [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 43,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons. [4] - **Market Situation**: Downstream battery enterprises have weak consumption, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting reaches a historical high, while the inventory of recycled lead products remains high, with weak downside support. [4] Zinc - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.74% to 21,691 yuan/ton. There is a large downward risk in the future. [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 8,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons. [6] - **Market Situation**: Zinc ore is in surplus, zinc smelter profits increase, and terminal consumption is weak. Although domestic social inventory has decreased, overall visible inventory is stable, and there is a large downward risk. [6] Tin - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton. [7][8] - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 39 to 6,613 tons, and LME inventory increased by 25 to 2,200 tons. [7] - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and short - term supply of tin ore is tight. Upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but downstream acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited, and the industrial chain is in a stalemate. [7][8] Nickel - **Price**: On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated. It is expected that the SHFE nickel main contract will run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton. [9] - **Market Situation**: The shortage of nickel ore has marginally eased, and the price of nickel iron is dragged down by weak stainless - steel demand. The production of MHP in Indonesia has recovered, and the prices of intermediate products and nickel sulfate are expected to decline. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and inventory is difficult to maintain, which may lead to a decline in nickel prices. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,961 yuan, down 0.24%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60,060 yuan, up 0.30%. It is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term, with the GZEE lithium carbonate 2509 contract running in the range of 59,300 - 60,700 yuan/ton. [11] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.8% to 18,462 tons, and inventory increased by 1,352 to 134,901 tons. [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially, supply is resilient, and inventory is under pressure. [11] Alumina - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the alumina index closed down 0.65% to 2,892 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. [13][14] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, futures warehouse receipts were 49,200 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. [14] - **Market Situation**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore end, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. The price is expected to be anchored by cost, and the focus of ore prices may rise this year. [14] Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. [16] - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 114,869 tons, a decrease of 2,110 tons from the previous day. Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, up 1.04%. [16] - **Market Situation**: High inventory of Qing Shan resources suppresses steel prices, downstream users are waiting and watching, and actual transactions are light. The industry is under cost pressure, and the future market depends on whether downstream demand can drive inventory digestion. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. Although the ore end provides some price support, the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable, production remains high, and demand improvement is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating. The fundamental pressure remains, but the tight near - month warehouse receipts provide support. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand expectations. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the long - term, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term downward adjustment space of the futures price is limited, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term price may reach around 20,500 yuan/ton, and in the third quarter, there is downward pressure, with the lowest support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. 1 imported nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The LME 0 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the futures import profit and loss improved by 5.75% [1]. Electrowinning Cost - The cost of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods for producing electrowinning nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.36%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE, social, and LME inventories all decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 11.54% [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%. The price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month. Imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85%. Social inventories increased by 2.04% [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.42 - 0.47% [6]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. Total inventory increased by 1.49%, downstream inventory decreased by 6.47%, and smelter inventory increased by 8.54% [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.11%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 20.74% [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, refined tin production decreased by 2.37%. SHEF and LME inventories changed [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%. The import profit and loss improved by 1.10% [10]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%. Galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide开工率 changed. Social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%. The average price of alumina decreased slightly [13]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41%. Aluminum product开工率 decreased, and social and LME inventories decreased [13]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%. The import profit and loss decreased [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Electrolytic copper and recycled copper制杆开工率 changed, and inventories in different locations changed [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【545-575】 | | LPG | | 近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成 | | | 偏强 | 本端油价受地缘冲击，短线走强；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4450-4550】 | | | | 社会库存去化，期现齐涨，华北基差为-7（环比+41）。2024 年 PE 自中东 进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续相关进口存缩量预期。 | | L | 空头反弹 | | | | | 本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。近期市场情绪好转，下游阶段性逢 | | | | 低补库，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：检修叠加成 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.49%至 9695 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.45%至 78450 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，欧日纷纷表态，与美贸易谈判暂无取得 | | | | 较大进展。但相比贸易谈判，市场更加关注伊以冲突的进展，有报道称伊朗希望与美 | | | | 国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌。 | | | | 对于铜的影响则在于市场风险偏好的变化。国内方面，5 月经济数据整体呈现"冷热 | | | | 不均"的格局。工业增加值表现尚可，社零增速明显提高，消费品以旧换新政策持续 | | | 铜 | 显效；房地产同比跌幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增速略有下降。库存方面，LME 库存 | | | | 下降 7150 吨至 107325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1193 吨至 17.9 万吨；SMM 周一统计全国 | | | | 精炼铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.29 万吨至 ...

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].