Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1]. - It assigns a ★☆☆ rating to coke and coking coal, indicating a bullish or bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase or decrease, but poor operability on the market [1]. Core Views - The demand expectation for steel remains weak, and the market stabilizes slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of China-US game and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the upcoming important meetings [3]. - The support near the previous low of coke and coking coal is relatively solid, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for rebar increased significantly month-on-month but remained weak year-on-year. Production continued to decline, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils also increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Iron ore production remained high, but downstream demand was insufficient. As steel mill profits declined, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain continued to ferment. From the perspective of downstream industries, the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability, real estate investment declined significantly, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports remained high in September. The demand expectation remained weak, and the market stabilized slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume increased, and there was no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased significantly after the holiday, and iron ore production remained high with resilience. Steel mills had a certain demand for phased replenishment, but as profits shrank and demand remained relatively low, the pressure for future production cuts gradually increased. External trade frictions continued, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthened, and market sentiment weakened. It still needs subsequent policy support. It is expected that iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated upward during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profit levels were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre-holiday replenishment, downstream users are currently consuming inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures market is slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to increase slightly, the spot auction volume decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. Terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month-on-month, and production-end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking coal futures market is slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5,750 yuan/ton. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but production remained at a high level. Silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand remained good. The quoted price of manganese ore shipments increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price mainly oscillated during the day. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was okay. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively addressing potential trade friction impacts by enhancing its global supply chain resilience and expanding its international presence [1]. Group 1: Company Response to Trade Friction - The company indicated that its revenue from direct exports to the U.S. is relatively low, which mitigates the immediate impact of potential tariffs [1]. - The company is closely monitoring changes in the international trade environment and maintaining communication with customers to collaboratively respond to challenges [1]. - To systematically reduce the potential impact of trade friction on operations, the company is advancing its internationalization strategy, including establishing a production base in Thailand and increasing efforts to explore other international markets [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the EU and China, particularly focusing on the EU's potential new policies requiring Chinese companies to transfer technology to local firms in exchange for investment opportunities in Europe [4][5][7]. Group 1: EU's Trade Policy Changes - The EU is considering a significant shift in its trade policy towards Chinese investments, which may include mandatory technology and intellectual property transfers [4][5]. - This move is seen as a response to protect European industries, especially the automotive sector, and aims to ensure that Chinese investments create jobs and facilitate technology sharing in Europe [4][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The discussion on technology transfer is part of a broader trend of the EU adopting a tougher stance on China, as evidenced by recent proposals to impose tariffs on steel imports and the Dutch government's takeover of a Chinese-controlled semiconductor manufacturer [8][10]. - European officials are increasingly concerned about supply chain security amid geopolitical risks, particularly in light of China's new export control regulations affecting critical materials [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Resource Concerns - The article highlights Europe's vulnerability regarding its dependence on Chinese rare earth materials, with countries like Germany and Turkey relying on China for 91% and 93% of their imports, respectively [10][11]. - The inclusion of lithium battery materials and production equipment in China's export controls signifies the strategic importance of the lithium battery industry, elevating it to a level comparable to that of rare earths [11]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The ongoing trade tensions are creating uncertainty in global markets, with potential implications for supply chain restructuring and investor sentiment [12][13]. - The upcoming APEC summit may provide insights into whether these trade frictions are merely short-term negotiation tactics or indicative of a longer-term structural shift in global trade dynamics [12][13].

Group 1 - Shipping stocks are experiencing active performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (up 3.21% to HKD 9.65), Orient Overseas International (up 3% to HKD 126.9), COSCO Shipping Holdings (up 2.97% to HKD 12.82), and Yang Ming Marine Transport (up 1.7% to HKD 8.39) [1] - The U.S. 301 port fee measures will be implemented on October 14, prompting China to announce special port fees for U.S. vessels starting the same day. This reciprocal action is expected to create short-term price fluctuations in shipping rates due to initial implementation chaos [1][2] - Concerns over port congestion and supply chain efficiency have intensified following new U.S. sanctions and China's announcement of special port fees, leading to a significant increase in VLCC shipping rates last week. The combination of these factors and the seasonal peak is expected to result in strong performance for oil shipping rates in the short to medium term [1] Group 2 - The reciprocal port fee measures between China and the U.S. are anticipated to increase costs for shipping companies, potentially disrupting established trading rhythms and causing short-term chaos. This environment may empower shipping companies to pass on costs and exert greater pricing power, supporting short-term rate increases [2] - In the medium to long term, shipping companies may adjust capacity across global routes to mitigate the impact of port fees. However, given China's critical role in global dry bulk, energy transport, and manufacturing exports, the ultimate effects of these measures will require further observation [2] - Investment opportunities in shipping stocks related to U.S.-China trade tensions are suggested, with oil and dry bulk shipping rates likely to benefit from the short-term risk premium associated with the current chaos [2]

螺纹钢 去库存压力大 （2025 年 10 月 16 日） 媒体发文 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 在 9 月中旬短暂反弹之后，螺纹钢期货价格再度转弱下行，国庆假期前主力合约更是跌破 3100 元/吨整数关口，创下阶段性新低。同时，现货价格也在低位偏弱运行。 宏观情绪偏弱 美东时间 10 月 10 日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征 100%关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。上述举措引发市场避险交易，风险资产价格承压回 落。在经历了 4 月的"对等关税"冲击后，新一轮关税威胁对商品市场的边际影响减弱。事实上，新一 轮关税威胁对黑色产业的影响有限，国内钢材直接出口至美国的数量较少。不过，若贸易摩擦升 级，可能对我国钢材的间接出口形成冲击，例如汽车、家电等产品出口受限后会加剧板材产业的供 需矛盾，进而导致建筑钢材价格承压。笔者认为，若贸易摩擦升级，国内将出台更多利好政策，对 黑色金属价格形成显著支撑，市场情绪将再度切换。 与钢价弱势下行不同，原料价格表现相对偏强。根据钢联数据，截至 10 月 10 日当周，247 家 样本钢厂中盈利钢厂占比为 56.28%，已 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market may remain volatile due to China's sanctions on South Korean shipbuilders and the uncertain Sino - US trade friction. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [6]. - The overall atmosphere is still bearish despite the rebound of the SCFI index, and the market is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6]. 3. Directory Summaries SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [4]. - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [4]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1160.42 points on October 10, up 45.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [4]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points on October 10, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [4]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service - sector PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [5]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [5]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased. The main contract on October 10, 2025, closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [6]. - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but the overall atmosphere is still bearish, and the market is under pressure to decline [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [7]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract is advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - Intra - day opening limit: The intra - day opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7]. Geopolitical Situation - There are conflicting reports about the cease - fire in the Israel - Hamas conflict. Israel's military radio reported that the Israeli Defense Forces would withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" soon, and the cease - fire agreement had taken effect. However, other media reported that Israeli attacks on multiple areas in Gaza continued. Hamas senior official Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, stating that "the war in Gaza is over" [8].

IC ERING 2 3500 FEE 3 1 30 V 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 方 网 官 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC EN .. | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中金属数据日报 | | | 方冒起 | 国贸期货研究员 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 2025/10/16 | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | | 价格指标 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) 图表 | | | 制 10553. 5 | 10600 | -0.16 | -2. 44 LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | 锌 2924. 5 | 3049 | -2.24 | -3.69 | | | LME 2725.5 品 | 1940 | -0. 84 | 1500000 -1. 43 | | | (美元/吨) | | | | | | 镍 15110 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic financial data shows overall stability in volume, but the structure needs optimization [3]. - There is still significant uncertainty in trade frictions. However, news of technological breakthroughs in domestic technology sub - sectors drove the market to rebound, but under the background of reduced overall trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue the pattern of oscillating digestion in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Financial Aggregate Data**: Domestically, at the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 spread hit a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan year - on - year. Regarding Sino - US relations, the US stated that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions, and China urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China also opposed the EU's attempt to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology [1]. - **Index Rebound**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. Most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries leading the gains, while only the steel and petroleum and petrochemical industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.66% to 22670.08 points [1]. - **Technological Breakthroughs**: At the 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecology Expo, China's self - developed 90GHz real - time oscilloscope was officially released, and two domestic electronic engineering EDA design software with independent intellectual property rights were launched for the first time [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, on the day of the delivery of the current - month contract this Friday, the basis of IC and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Based on domestic financial data, the overall volume remains stable, but the structure needs optimization. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions and the reduced trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue to oscillate in the short term [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][9][11]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on October 15, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [15]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IC and IM increased on the day [39]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various changes in spreads [43][45]. - There are also multiple charts showing the open interest, open interest ratio, and basis trends of different stock index futures contracts [6][16][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Oils**: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - **Meal Products**: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - **PR and PF**: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US dollar (USD) due to disappointing employment data, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6496, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021, exceeding expectations of 4.3%, indicating a loosening labor market [1] - The number of employed persons increased by 14,900 in September, which was below the forecasted increase of 20,000 [1] Group 2 - The three-year government bond yields, sensitive to policy changes, fell by 9 basis points following the employment data release [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a drop of up to 0.49% during the day, reaching 0.6479 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to consider interest rate cuts as a response to the labor market data [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a short-term oversold condition [2] - Support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6520 and 0.6530 [2]